BLUF: Armenia, a small country of about 3 million people, is located at an important strategic crossroads among Europe, Russia, the Middle East and Central Asia. For centuries, this position has left the landlocked country vulnerable to foreign rule, conflict, irregular warfare tactics, and geopolitical influence. With its 7 June parliamentary election, Armenia has taken an important step in the direction of balancing its foreign policy and playing the role that its geography has positioned it for by bringing these crossroads together. The story is not over however, and Moscow will not let Armenia easily continue down this road. Moscow will continue to pressure Armenia, using all its expertise in irregular warfare, to keep Armenia in its orbit.
Moving Toward the West
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan came to power in May 2018 following a “velvet revolution” that ousted the party that had ruled pro-Moscow Armenia for nearly twenty years. The previous leadership had strong ties to the embattled Nagorno-Karabakh exclave and had made Armenia dependent on Russia for security and its economy.
In the eight years since Pashinyan came to power, he has started peace talks with Azerbaijan, moved the country closer to the West, and cut some ties to Russia. The June 7 parliamentarian election was interpreted as a positive mandate on the direction Pashinyan is taking the country. However, while he won a majority, the pro-Russia opposition held a strong minority position, ensuring that the battle for Armenia’s future was not over.
What the Election Means for a Peace Treaty with Azerbaijan
Last August, the White House brokered a deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan for a ceasefire over ongoing violence in the disputed Nagorno Karabakh territory and set the conditions for the beginning of a peace treaty. As part of the deal, Azerbaijan demanded Armenia approve a new constitution that removed references to Nagorno Karabakh. Changes to the Armenian constitution require two thirds vote in the parliament. Pashinyan failed to secure a two-thirds majority, which means that he cannot change the constitution.
Official preliminary results gave Pashinyan's Civil Contract Party 64 seats in the 105-seat legislature. Two Russian-leaning opposition parties took the remaining seats, while a third appeared to have fallen narrowly short of the 5 percent barrier for entry into parliament pending a recount.
This was the first election since Armenia's military defeat to Azerbaijan in 2023 and a key part of Pashinyan's pitch was what he called "real Armenia," meaning accepting the country's current borders and improving relations with neighbors that have traditionally been hostile -- namely Azerbaijan, but also its patron, Turkey. During the last year, Pashinyan has reached out to the European Union and Turkey, along with the US, to strengthen ties and balance Armenia’s once Russia-focused foreign policy.
In May, dozens of European leaders and representatives of key EU institutions traveled to Yerevan for the first-ever meeting of the European Political Community (EPC) in the South Caucasus, as well as the very first EU-Armenia summit. This was a strong signal toward the West at a pivotal moment for Armenia.
Moscow
The gradual erosion of Russian influence in Armenia may become one of the most strategically important geopolitical shifts in Eurasia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Armenia was Moscow’s last reliable foothold in the Caucasus. If Russia continues to lose its dominant position in Yerevan, the consequences are likely to extend far beyond the Caucasus, accelerating a broader decline of Russian influence across Central Asia. Underscoring the importance of Armenia to Moscow, President Vladimir Putin threatened Armenia with a "Ukrainian scenario" if it continues building ties with the EU.
For Russia, the loss of Armenia would mean:
· Collapse of Russian strategic dominance in the South Caucasus;
· Weakened Russian military logistics and intelligence networks in the region;
· Decline of Moscow’s political authority among post-Soviet states;
· Destruction of the image of Russia as a reliable security guarantor;
· Expansion of Turkish and Western influence toward the Caspian region.
Most importantly, it would demonstrate that Moscow can no longer preserve its traditional sphere of influence. This would be a major psychological blow to Moscow who is simultaneously fighting a losing war in Ukraine and growing concerns among the population regarding the economic direction of their country.
Moscow has shown that it is prepared to fight for continued influence in Armenia. During the final stretch of the parliamentary election campaign, it launched cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns. The EU sent specialists to help Armenia counter these threats.
In retaliation for Armenia’s continued outreach to the EU, Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance banned imports of potatoes, eggplants, fruits — apples, pears, and quince — and dried fruit from Armenia, effective June 3, 2026.
Russia also barred the transit of those agricultural products through its territory to other Eurasian Economic Union member states, citing “the absence of mechanisms to confirm that quarantine-controlled goods have reached those countries.”
The restrictions carry no end date — they will remain in force “until a corresponding procedure is developed to ensure the safety of shipped goods.” More recently, Moscow has banned the import of Armenian fish.
Moscow also has recalled its Ambassador to Armenia for consultations because of the steps taken by the Armenian leadership on a rapprochement with the European Union. The Russian Foreign Ministry said that these steps undermined cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union. The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is a single market which, besides Armenia, is also made up of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Moscow has previously stressed that Armenia cannot be a member of both the EU and the EEU.
US Focus
The US is pulling out all the stops to support Armenia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Yerevan the week prior to the parliamentary election in a show of support for Pashinyan and his government. President Trump publicly endorsed Pashinyan and his party.
The Trump administration has been working closely with Pashinyan on a road-and-rail corridor initiative called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which would run through Armenia and connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. Rubio said he took another step in the TRIPP project with the Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.
"This agreement marks the biggest step to date on making this historic route a reality, on advancing peace and on increasing prosperity in Armenia and frankly in the region," Rubio said at a signing ceremony at Yerevan airport.
Multi-track Foreign Policy
Pashinyan’s focus on diversifying Armenia’s foreign policy makes sense given Armenia’s geo-location. This way forward gives Armenia the possibility of increased status in global trade and potentially in global strategy. Russia will surely attempt to derail Pashinyan and the US’s plans. The question is whether the West will allow Russia to be successful.
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