Last week, The Cipher Brief told you how and why the U.S. has been working to convince its allies to ban Chinese vendors from contributing to the development of 5G networks as well as offering some basics about what 5G actually is, and what we should be most focused on as private companies continue to develop the 5G network.
This week, we bring you a candid conversation with Cipher Brief Expert and former Deputy Director of the NSA, Rick Ledgett, about who will be impacted the most by 5G technology and the 5 key things that everyone needs to consider.
Background:
5G is an umbrella term that encompasses a lot of different technologies that are designed to satisfy three evolving communications needs:
- Mobile users who want a lot of data quickly
- Internet of Things devices that need low-speed connectivity on a massive scale
- Things like autonomous (aka self-driving) vehicles that need ultra-reliable connections with virtually no delay.
5G is also a marketing term that might mean all, any, or none of the above, depending on who is using it and in what context.
Rick Ledgett, Former Deputy Director, NSA
"There is so much hype in the marketplace about 5G, and there's no real agreed upon standard, which means anyone can apply the 5G label to just about anything. This is complicated by the fact that 5G is not an evolution of previous standards like 2G to 3G to 4G, but is instead something very different."
According to the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), there are five core technologies to address those three needs that I mentioned earlier: millimeter wave radio, extremely small cells, large-scale multiple antenna arrays, beamforming (a technique in signal processing used in sensor arrays for the transmission or reception of signals) and full duplex (data transmissions that can communicate in both directions).
Each is related to the others, and all are under intense development by standards bodies, equipment manufacturers, and telecommunications companies.
There are also a large number of enabling technologies that are under development. This means several things.
First, there is a lack of standardization in equipment for interoperability, and in fact much of the equipment necessary has yet to be designed and built.
Second, 5G will require several hundred billion dollars worth of infrastructure to be deployed, which will take some time.
Third, there is not yet widespread agreement on what specific frequency allocations will be used for 5G networks.
Fourth, it is not yet clear what the market drivers are for 5G, at least at the level of spending necessary to widely deploy the technologies.
Finally, That doesn't mean there won't be any 5G installations; some companies and countries will build them using interim standards and technologies that bridge to 4G either as demonstration or marketing projects.
It's likely that China will continue to subsidize their industry leaders like Huawei and ZTE in order to gain a foothold in key markets, and as a form of "influence via communications sales." That means the normal economic imperatives will be less important, at least in markets China wants to penetrate, like the U.S.
Looking Ahead:
The move to 5G will be incremental and uneven as infrastructure is deployed in response to market demands, technology availability, and regulatory approvals.
Rick Ledgett, Former Deputy Director, NSA
"Because communications over 5G will underpin so many aspects of our lives - through the connection of Internet of Things devices, autonomous vehicles, and all of our mobile devices - it will be important to have security baked in from the beginning."
That includes a coherent national and, with key allies, international strategy on how to secure those communications and ensure they are there when we need them, and not subject to manipulation by those who build or operate 5G devices. If we fail to develop such a strategy, in concert with the private sector entities who will build out the networks, we will have ceded control of our communications lifelines to others.
Read more from Cipher Brief Expert and former Deputy Director of the NSA, Rick Ledgett in The Cipher Brief...
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