OPINION — The 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS) follows closely the 2025 National Security Strategy, as it should. It also falls in line with the Department of Defense’s narrative and the actions they have taken regarding priorities. The NDS has four lines of effort:
- Defending the U.S. Homeland - Homeland defense is the top priority, with the Western Hemisphere elevated above other regions. This includes border security, open lines of transportation (Panama Canal and Greenland), counter-narcotics operations, and countering adversary influence. This is not a surprise.
- Deterring China in the Indo-Pacific - The approach focuses on deterrence through military strength rather than confrontation, aiming to prevent Chinese dominance while avoiding conflict. The strategy emphasizes expanded military-to-military communication with Beijing to reduce conflict risks. It still cites China’s predatory behaviors and makes clear that China is the second highest priority.
- Increasing Burden-Sharing with Allies - The document argues that allies must significantly increase defense spending, pointing to a new global benchmark of 5% of GDP for defense-related expenditures. It also calls on allies to keep watch against threats in their part of the world so that the US can focus on the Western Hemisphere.
- Revitalizing the U.S. Defense Industrial Base - Described as a once-in-a-century effort essential for military readiness, providing strength to deter the US from getting embroiled in a war, and, if needed, the ability to produce weapons at scale during crises.
Notable Omissions
- The strategy makes no specific mention of or guarantee to Taiwan, unlike the 2022 Biden era strategy which explicitly supported Taiwan's self-defense. It also omits climate change as a security threat, which the Biden administration had identified.
- Perhaps, the most concerning issue is that the NDS does not mention Ukraine. It would have been easy to call out Ukraine’s successes against Russia as the example for how the strategy forecasts the behaviors it seeks from our allies. It also characterizes Russia as a persistent but manageable threat, in effect relegating Russia at the end of the day as inconsequential to the US. This underestimates Moscow’s ability to cause havoc beyond Ukraine. It also is much like waving the red flag at the bull. Moscow will not like being considered a minor player on the world stage.
Is Cognitive Warfare Still a Thing?
While the Defense Industrial Base is called out as important as is the need for weapons systems and platforms, there is nothing in the document about increasing activities in the cognitive warfare area. This is an area where the US needs to step up. There are statements throughout the NDS where one can read into the need for cognitive warfare. The NDS talks about providing options in the spaces prior to war and being ready if the US must go to war. These statements support increasing intelligence support and non-kinetic options for decision makers. Specifically, the NDS says:
- …this Strategy will ensure that we see things and the choices we need to make clearly.
- ….including by leading efforts to deter or defend against other, lesser threats
Again, to deter adversaries, not only does the adversary have to fear your kinetic response but also what you can do behind the scene. Additionally, cognitive warfare can prep the battle space, even if we do not ultimately resort to a battle space. Influence operations could play a huge role in deterrence.
- · ….partner with ….other federal departments and agencies to reinvigorate and mobilize our great nation’s unrivaled creativity and ingenuity, re-spark our innovative spirit….
This statement seems to be here to support calls for increased irregular warfare activities. Creativity and ingenuity are the hallmark for cognitive warfare and the Department can best support activities within the cognitive warfare or irregular warfare space by partnering with other federal departments and agencies.
Conclusion
There is nothing surprising in the NDS and that is a good thing. If the NDS had not closely matched the National Security Strategy or the direction we have witnessed the Department headed in the last year, something would have been off. What the NDS does do is provide the military and the Defense Intelligence Enterprise with a strategic framework for priorities. The National Intelligence Strategy should follow next. While the regional priorities in a National Intelligence Strategy should not be surprising, it will be illuminating to see the strategic direction that the Director of National Intelligence sets for how the intelligence community should move forward.
The NDS priorities mean that there will be some adjustments to resources. Reporting indicates that there may soon be changes to the unified command plan whereby US SOUTHCOM and NORTHCOM will be combined into an America’s Command. There will also need to be an adjustment to resources, both money and people to be able to fulfill the NDS mandate. Such a change will take time to build. Expertise does not come overnight.
The Department will need to make major changes in acquisition and contracting to be able to develop the capabilities the NDS has called out and in the time frame it demands. It is clear that the Department is moving in that direction.
There are repercussions for our partners and our adversaries. More will be expected of our partners but again, the administration has been clear on that issue and when pressed, our partners have shown that they can step up.
Finally, the NDS is clear that the US is not looking for a fight. However, it is also clear that if our adversaries move in that direction, we will be prepared to push back. We need to make sure that we are and put more focus on cognitive warfare to help us be prepared but also to keep us out of a kinetic fight!
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