Instability in the Age of Complexity
What most distinguishes human civilization in the 21st Century and during the emerging era of globalization is its ever intensifying complexity. Gone are the terrestrial […] More
civil war
Measuring Levels of Fragility
For twelve years, the Fund for Peace has calculated and published the Fragile States Index (FSI), which measures state fragility around the world based on […] More
Indicators of Political Instability
Why has Russia under President Vladimir Putin remained fairly stable despite worsening economic conditions? Is Zimbabwe likely to become embroiled in conflict when its 92-year […] More
How Valuable are the Indicators?
A few years ago, my colleagues and I published an article on forecasting instability in nations around the world. Two things stood out in that […] More
The Latest
Syria: Power-sharing, Partitioning, and the Fight Against ISIS
President Barack Obama is meeting today with his National Security Council at CIA headquarters to discuss efforts to combat the Islamic State (also known as […] More
A Post-Conflict Scenario
Well into its sixth year, it is easy to conclude that there is no end in sight to the devastating Syrian civil war. Warring parties […] More
Hearing the Wake Up Call
When I landed in Damascus in late 2005 as a foreign correspondent, I went looking for the most popular place where young Syrians spend their […] More
Russia Makes Moves in the Middle East
Russia is playing a game of Bismarckian realpolitik in the Middle East – political maneuvering based on current conditions, rather than on ideological premises, that […] More
Imposing its Own Vision
Since 2012, there has been a period of diplomatic activity by the Kremlin in the Middle East which is unprecedented since the fall of the […] More
The Syrian Question
Syria is Russia’s only real ally in the Middle East. A stable and friendly Syria is in Moscow’s best interests. Stability in Syria is also […] More