The AI bubble is not a capability bubble. It is an expectation bubble. National security leaders are treating AI as a replacement for analysts, [...]
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Author's NoteIn our first paper, DNI Day One: Three Strategic Decisions for National Security Evolution, we identified three challenges confronting [...]
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Artificial intelligence is moving quickly into national security work. That is not a future trend. It is already happening in analysis, collection [...]
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Artificial intelligence is moving quickly into national security work. That is not a future trend. It is already happening in analysis, collection [...]
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Entrepreneurs realize that speed compresses learning. They know some of their initial assumptions will be wrong or only partially right, so going [...]
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Entrepreneurs realize that speed compresses learning. They know some of their initial assumptions will be wrong or only partially right, so going [...]
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AI is compressing parts of the intelligence cycle, but modernization is occurring unevenly across collection, analysis, validation, dissemination, [...]
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The United States Intelligence Community does not ordinarily deal in hyperbole. When the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released its [...]
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Events have moved faster than doctrine. Part 1 of this series diagnosed the rise of synthetic asymmetry, an era where technological convergence [...]
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One of the most consequential geopolitical and technological races underway is the competition to shape the future of large language models. For a [...]
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OPINION -- If you ask Google what Al Jazeera is, the answer you receive draws heavily on Wikipedia. The same is true if you ask ChatGPT, Perplexity [...]
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OPINION — Warfare has always operated at human speed, but we now have the capability to operate at machine speed. The risks are high, but so are the [...]
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There’s a profound assumption embedded in much of today’s conversation about AI and intelligence: better technology will solve our core problems. We [...]
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OPINION -- In an era where warfighters and decision-makers have on-demand access to vast data holdings and AI-generated insights, the future of [...]
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Washington’s strategy for artificial general intelligence (AGI), or the ability to replace human cognitive labor, assumes the United States is locked [...]
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The Cipher Brief broke new ground when it published my piece addressing scams as a national security issue in December 2023. Two years later, there [...]
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Since U.S. and Israeli strikes began against Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure in late February, two wars have been running simultaneously. [...]
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The Gray Zone is no longer a peripheral space between war and peace. It has become the primary arena in which strategic advantage is tested and [...]
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