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Artificial Intelligence

Deterrence Is Not Enough in the Age of Synthetic Asymmetry

Events have moved faster than doctrine. Part 1 of this series diagnosed the rise of synthetic asymmetry, an era where technological convergence [...] More

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Rethinking the Intelligence Cycle for the AI Era

There’s a profound assumption embedded in much of today’s conversation about AI and intelligence: better technology will solve our core problems. We [...] More

Sustaining Decision Advantage: The Case for Analytic Tradecraft Reform

OPINION -- In an era where warfighters and decision-makers have on-demand access to vast data holdings and AI-generated insights, the future of [...] More

America’s AI Strategy Is Fighting the Last War

Washington’s strategy for artificial general intelligence (AGI), or the ability to replace human cognitive labor, assumes the United States is locked [...] More

New Presidential Executive Order Targets Transnational Cybercrime

The Cipher Brief broke new ground when it published my piece addressing scams as a national security issue in December 2023. Two years later, there [...] More

When Deepfakes Become Doctrine

Since U.S. and Israeli strikes began against Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure in late February, two wars have been running simultaneously. [...] More

The Next Battlefield Is Perception, Not Territory

The Gray Zone is no longer a peripheral space between war and peace. It has become the primary arena in which strategic advantage is tested and [...] More

Should Western Tech Giants Partner With Pro-Hamas Network Al Jazeera?

A few weeks ago, Al Jazeera named Google Cloud as its primary technology provider for “The Core,” a sweeping program designed to integrate generative [...] More

Export Controls Backfire: The China Innovation Paradox

Export Controls Backfire: The China Innovation Paradox

DEEP DIVE — When the Biden administration rolled out its semiconductor export restrictions in October 2022, the logic seemed airtight: cut off [...] More

How China Built AI Dominance on Stolen American Silicon

How China Built AI Dominance on Stolen American Silicon

DEEP DIVE — Federal prosecutors in Texas, in December, unsealed charges and related details exposing a sprawling scheme that quietly siphoned some of [...] More

Agentic AI and the “Human-in-the-Loop” Luxury in Modern Defense

THE IRON TRIANGLE — Welcome to the inaugural edition of “The Iron Triangle”, my new Cipher Brief column that serves the three pillars of modern [...] More

Modeling the Earth with AI is Now a Strategic Intelligence Imperative

EXPERT OPINION / PERSPECTIVE — We are currently witnessing a mobilization of technical ambition reminiscent of the Manhattan Project, a realization [...] More

The Human Algorithm: Why Disinformation Outruns Truth and What It Means for Our Future

In recent years, the national conversation about disinformation has often focused on bot networks, foreign operatives, and algorithmic manipulation [...] More