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Does Predictive Policing Work?

What if it were possible to predict where a crime took place before it actually occurred – even determining the identity of the culprit in advance? Social scientists have long believed that historical crime trends influence future patterns. The revolution in advanced machine learning is putting these theories to the test. A new generation of forecasting tools is emerging that will dramatically change the nature of law enforcement – and our privacy – forever.  

Predictive policing is one of the most widely known forecasting platforms. It is based on the expectation that crime is hyper-concentrated and contagious. Take the case of Chicago´s west side where over 40 percent of all firearm-related murders are committed by a tiny network made up of less than four percent of the neighborhood’s population. Some places and people in the west side are also predisposed to “repeat victimization” – they are more likely to be a victim of crime than others.

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