OPINION — Two weeks ago, in the first hours of the war, I listed several possible scenarios for the outcome. No one can confidently know where this is going for all the reasons I listed then -- as the war has shown, a decision to employ violence without pre-planning for all contingencies sets off an unpredictable chain of events. This said, I sense that the administration is approaching the point where the temptation will be overwhelming to define as victory wherever things stand at the moment – even if this includes the survival of a weakened version of the Iranian regime.
The pressure to do that comes from the piling up of second and third order consequences, most of which seem not to have been anticipated. This list is growing.
There is closure or clogging of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices and the knock-on pressures in all associated fields – a trend beneficial to oil-rich Russia as its aggression in Ukraine continues. The Iranian attacks on the Gulf states, while deepening their animus toward Iran, have almost certainly diminished any enthusiasm on their part for continuing conflict. Then there is the US public’s confusion about the war; polling is not conclusive, but it looks like only 4 in 10 Americans think it a good idea and a higher percentage are simply uncertain about the objectives. The MAGA base is not enthused and prominent influencers such as Joe Rogan find it out of line with the president’s campaign promises. And the 2026 mid-terms loom as judgment time for all of this.
Although the logic of the conflict is starting to call for a way out, there are some major hurdles in the way.
The first is that the US has not met at least three of the headline objectives the administration mentioned at the outset -- eliminating any Iranian nuclear material, banishing the revolutionary regime, and inspiring a popular uprising. Thanks to the US military’s professionalism, US effort on another objective -- degrading Iran’s war machine -- has fared better. Although not yet complete, the administration could cite progress on that as a basis for declaring victory.
A second problem is that Israel does not seem prepared to stop. It is clearly bent on regime change and on destroying anyone who could preserve a form of the old one.
So, if the administration does want to declare victory and be done, it will have to finesse these two sets of problems. One way would be through a set of talks in which the US tries to use the threat of renewed military attack to dominate the bargaining table. But at this point, the Iranians are giving no sign, at least publicly, that they are looking for a cease fire or feel pressure yet to sit down and talk.
You can also follow Cipher Brief Expert and former Acting Director of CIA John McLaughlin on Substack.
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