OPINION — “Whether a President is serious, particularly one like [President-elect] Donald Trump, he says a lot of things he doesn’t follow up on. He also says things to provoke. The underlying logic that he seems to – and in my experience in the last [Trump] administration – carry out was, ‘I don’t adhere to conventions. I don’t adhere to the international rule of law per se. I am interested in advancing American interests and I’ll do it any way I can.’”
That was former Ambassador James F. Jeffrey during an interview last Thursday on the London Times’ Times Radio program. Jeffrey, a career Foreign Service officer [and Cipher Brief expert] who served as ambassador to Iraq, Turkey and Albania, was chosen by the Trump administration in 2018 to be the U.S. Special Representative for Syria Engagement, and in 2019 to serve as Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter the Islamic State (ISIS).
Amb. Jeffrey thus became the only signer of an August 2016 letter from 50 Republican national security officials who said they would not vote for Trump to eventually be offered a job in that first Trump administration.
Looking back last week to his time working for Trump, Amb. Jeffrey said, “It turns out he [Trump] didn’t do all of that much that was bad or shocking the last time. We’re all hoping that will be the case this time. But you’re going to get more of this I’m sure – at least the rhetoric.”
The Greenland, Canada and Panama Canal threats
For me, it’s worth weighing Amb. Jeffrey’s views as we review Trump’s recent threats to buy Greenland, which I discussed last week; turn Canada into the 51st state; and finally retake the Panama Canal, which I will discuss below.
Amb. Jeffery pointed out that Trump had raised the purchase of Greenland during his first administration and noted that Greenland “is a security concern.” Trump “listens to a lot of people,” Amb. Jeffrey said. “He’s very interested in the world, he’s very interested in protecting American security, and the Arctic has become really important because of global warming and the new threat from Russia and China in that region. So I think he sees it as a possible base [because] it was a major American base in World War II, for example.”
When the London Times moderator pointed out there already is a major U.S. base in Greenland, Amb. Jeffrey noted that “having been his [Trump’s] man with the [U.S.] Syrian bases, he [Trump] often confuses having a base in a country with owning a country or having territorial control over it. I think that’s basically where he is heading.”
Asked if Trump risks annoying global leaders, including Panama’s President, with the statements he’s been making recently, Amb. Jeffrey responded saying, “He loves annoying,” which Trump has certainly done with the Panamanians.
I think Trump’s recent flurry of threats to expand the U.S. by taking over allied-owned land in the Western Hemisphere just days before returning to the Presidency is worth examination because they do have worldwide implications, starting with the Panama Canal.
Trump’s canal claims
It was on the evening of December 21, 2024, when Trump first posted about Panama on his Truth Social website that began: “The Panama Canal is considered a VITAL National Asset for the United States, due to its critical role to America’s Economy and National Security. A secure Panama Canal is crucial for U.S. Commerce, and rapid deployment of the Navy, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, and drastically cuts shipping times to U.S. ports.”
Trump went on to make a number of false claims – that the Canal was built “at HUGE cost to the United States in lives and treasure – 38,000 American men died from infected mosquitoes in the jungles during construction,” and that “it was solely for Panama to manage, not China, or anyone else.”
Panamanians do manage the Panama Canal through the Panama Canal Authority, whose Administrator, Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, told reporters after Trump’s initial statement, “China has no involvement whatsoever in our operations.”
While building the Canal, from 1904 to 1914, the U.S. spent around $375 million, and some 5,600 lives were lost from disease and accidents during the U.S. construction, according to hospital records – not 38,000, and most were not Americans, but primarily West Indian immigrant workers. According to Matthew Parker, the author of “Hell’s Gorge: The Battle to Build the Panama Canal,” the number of Americans who died during the construction was likely around 300.
Yellow fever and malaria had caused 20,000 or more deaths during earlier canal-building efforts by the French, but thanks to eradication of two types of mosquitoes designed and directed by two American medical teams, there was a sharp drop in deaths during U.S. construction of the Canal.
In that first Truth Social post, Trump also said that the U.S. Navy and commercial shippers had faced “exorbitant prices and rates of passage,” and that “this complete ‘rip-off’ of our Country will immediately stop.”
The next day, December 22, Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino responded saying the Canal “rates are not a whim. They are established publicly and in an open hearing.” Mulino added, “The Canal is not under direct or indirect control, neither by China, nor by the European Community, nor by the United States, nor by any other power…As a Panamanian, I strongly reject any manifestation that distorts this reality. And it will continue to be in Panamanian hands as an inalienable heritage of our nation.”
That night, Trump upped the ante in Phoenix, Ariz., when, 23 minutes into his speech to a pro-MAGA crowd, he said, “Another thing that we are doing and looking at – it’s such a terrible thing that’s happening – the Panama Canal is considered a vital national asset…Has anyone ever heard of the Panama Canal? Because we’re being ripped off at the Panama Canal like we’re being ripped off everywhere else.”
Trump then recited other elements from his day-earlier Truth Social post, expanding on the false claim about American deaths. He said, “38,000 American men, almost all men. They went there to be construction workers and dig. They were diggers. And they were brave; 38,000 men died from infected mosquitoes in the jungles of Panama during the construction period. Think of that, we lost 38,000 men.”
After repeating that Panama, having received the Canal by treaty in 1999, had not treated the U.S. fairly, Trump said of the Canal, “It’s falling into the wrong hands…It has provisions you’ve got to treat us fairly, and they haven’t treated us fairly. If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal, in full, be returned to the United States of America quickly and without question. I’m not going to stand for it. So to the officials of Panama, please be guided accordingly.”
On Christmas Day, Trump repeated his inaccurate depiction of the Panama Canal situation, posting on Truth Social, “Merry Christmas to all, including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal (where we lost 38,000 people in its building 110 years ago), always making certain that the United States puts in Billions of Dollars in ‘repair’ money, but will have absolutely nothing to say about ‘anything.’”
The facts about the Canal
The facts are, after Panama took over Canal operations in 1999, traffic increased over the following five years by 17 percent. In 2006, Panama’s voters approved a major expansion to accommodate larger ships. Completed in 2016, the expansion cost Panama more than $5.2 billion, which was paid for out of Canal revenues.
Since then, because of droughts, the Canal Authority has had to drastically cut shipping traffic and therefore raised usage rates. Nevertheless, the Panama Canal Authority reported a net profit of over $3 billion in the year ending October 2024. Meanwhile, although the rains have mostly returned, Panama has said future fee increases might be necessary as it undertakes additional improvements to accommodate modern shipping needs.
Reality has not affected Trump’s public statements.
At his Mar-a-Lago press conference last Tuesday, Trump said, “We’re being respected again all over the world,” but then immediately turned to the Panama Canal which he described as a “disgrace.” Trump again complained that “Jimmy Carter gave it to them [the Panamanians] for $1 and they were supposed to treat us well.” But Trump then went on to say, “They [the Panamanians] want our help because it’s [the Canal] leaking and not in good repair and they want us to give $3 billion to help fix it. I said, well, why don’t you get the money from China, because China is basically taking it over.”
Trump added, “They’ve overcharged our ships, overcharged our Navy and then when they need repair money, they come to the United States to put it up, we get nothing.”
Canal Authority Administrator Vásquez Morales quickly responded. in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, saying Panama had not requested any funds from the U.S. for the Canal and he was unsure what money Trump was referring to.
What has been underway since 2019 is the Panama Canal Authority has been carrying out a cooperation and technical assistance agreement with the U.S. Corps of Engineers for a new water management system that could eventually cost up to $2 billion. The plan is expected to be presented to the Panamanian electorate in 2025.
Vásquez Morales also denied that the Canal Authority has charged U.S. ships higher rates, and pointed out that U.S. Navy vessels, in accordance with the treaty, get priority passage through the Canal.
“This is pretty wild stuff,” Ambassador Jeffrey said of Trump’s recent statements during his interview last Thursday. “That the bad boys – that is [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping] – will start not taking him seriously, whereas it’s very important that they do take him seriously and they did in the last [Trump] administration. So that’s my biggest worry is that they’ll not make mistakes on the assumption that this guy is off his rocker.”
Both Russia and China have been paying attention.
Speaking at a news conference last Thursday in Moscow, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “We are following this rather dramatic development closely. Thank God for now, it remains at the level of statements.”
But Peskov then made the obvious comparison between Trump talking about taking over neighboring countries that reject the idea, and Washington’s strong opposition up-to-now to Russia’s invasion and annexation of regions in Ukraine.
“If the U.S. speaks about respecting the will of Greenland’s population,” Peskov said, “it is worth recalling the expressed wishes of the people of Donbas and Novorossiya, who chose to reunite with Russia.”
The Chinese Communist Party newspaper Global Times has had daily stories about Trump’s statements and even reported last week that Trump had reposted a map of North America that had been page one of the New York Post showing Greenland, Canada and the Panama as part of the U.S.
I agree with the New York Times’ Thomas Friedman, who yesterday wrote that President Xi was paying attention to Trump, and that “if the U.S. president can decide that he wants to seize Greenland and explicitly refuses to rule out the use of force to do so, that is like a giant permission slip for China to seize Taiwan, which has strong emotional, historical, linguistic and national connections to mainland China.”
Watch what we do, not what we say, was the old Watergate remark attributed more than 50 years ago to the Nixon administration’s Attorney General John Mitchell. However, in Trump’s case, it needs to be revised to be: Watch what we say, as well as what we do. Both can cause harm.
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