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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.
Report for Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Trump to supply missiles to Ukraine, gives Russia 50-day ultimatum
After Trump Deal, Ukraine’s Fortunes Hinge On How Fast NATO Can Deliver Arms
China’s rare earth exports swell in June as Beijing relaxes controls
Israel’s plan to displace Palestinians threatens to derail Gaza ceasefire
Nvidia to resume chips sales to China
Battered but Not Broken: Why NATO Still Fears a Weakened Russia
Experts assess the real menace Russia poses beyond Ukraine
What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel
“Putin has drastically overplayed his hand”
Interview with former Senior CIA Officer Ralph Goff
Trump's Ukraine Pivot - OSR
The Open Source Report
The Problem with Iran’s Proxies
Interview with Glenn Corn, Former Senior CIA Officer
Lessons from Israel’s Stunning Intelligence Operation
Interview with Beth Sanner, Former Deputy Director for National Intelligence, ODNI
Events
Live Events
Threat Conference
Upcoming: 19 October, 2025
Popular
Expert Q&A: Former CENTCOM Commander on U.S. Troops in the Middle East
A Closer Look at the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ on Defense Spending
Russia’s Outreach to the Taliban: Strategic Calculations or Regional Security Fears?
Podcasts
State Secrets
Taiwan has launched its largest annual military exercise ever - amid growing concern that China is on the cusp of launching a military invasion. Many national security experts see a Chinese invasion as inevitable. A recent piece published at the cipher brief.com focuses on what Washington will do when it does happen. But first, it’s the Intelligence Community that is on the front lines - charged with gathering as much information as possible about Xi Jinping’s intent. This week, State Secrets is talking with Susan Miller, who retired just a few months ago from CIA, where she served as the Assistant Director for the Agency’s China Mission Center. The Center was established in October of 2021, to better address the national security challenges posed by the People’s Republic of China.
Cover Stories: Spies, Books & Entertainment
In October1979, the most powerful cyclone in recorded history, raced across the Pacific and set in motion circumstances that caused a horrendous fire at a U.S. Marine Corps facility at the foot of Japan’s Mount Fuji. Thirteen Marines died of their burns and more than 70 other people were seriously injured. And yet few people today know of or remember these events. Chas Henry who served twenty years as a Marine and went on to have a highly successful career as a broadcast journalist – is out with a new book called “Fuji Fire: Sifting Ashes of a Forgotten U.S. Marine Corps Tragedy.” We will talk with him about his four-year-long effort to investigate the tragedy and what he learned about the chaos of the mass casualty event and the courage of those who fought the fire and battled their injuries during the long recovery process. We will ask him why a disaster of such magnitude is so little remembered and why official investigations into the fire appear to have been so limited.
What the Experts Say
The Cipher Brief’s Annual Threat Conference is a unique event where you can have deep and meaningful interactions with the top current and former leaders and thinkers from the intelligence communities of the United States and our allies. Held at the stunnning Sea Island resort, it is a must-go event for learning, debating, and interfacing with some of the world’s foremost national security thought-leaders.
Innovation requires us to be open and non-specific for as long as we possibly can to open up the aperture for the possibility of innovating.
There is no other location that brings together so many voices.
You'll find those in leadership positions across government and industry, really wanting to sit down at the table and have hard conversations that you just don't have anywhere else.
For general inquiries please email info@thecipherbrief.com