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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

The Continued Myth of Russia’s Imminent Collapse: Lessons from Prigozhin’s Mutiny Three Years On

As speculation about Vladimir Putin’s downfall grows again, lessons of Prigozhin’s rebellion remain widely misunderstood.

TOPSHOT-RUSSIA-UKRAINE-CONFLICT-WAGNER

KREMLIN FILES/COLUMN: Three years ago, in June 2023, the Kremlin confronted one of the most dramatic internal crises of Vladimir Putin's [...] More

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The Open Source Report

President Trump Addresses The Nation From The East Room Of The White House WASHINGTON, D.C. - JULY 16: U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the East Room of the White House on July 16, 2026 in Washington, DC. Trump is expected to speak on election security. (Photo by Saul Loeb/Pool - Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Friday, July 17, 2026

Trump accuses China of election meddling, contradicting U.S. intelligence findings

Iran tells Houthis to close Red Sea gateway if U.S. hits power network, sources say

Tehran claims attack on eastern Syria, in first such assault during current war

Zelensky names new defense minister in bid to quell political crisis

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

25 Years After 9/11, the Next Global Shock Could be Worse

Tim Willasey-Wilsey

The next 9/11 is unlikely to be another terrorist attack of equivalent scale nor a cyber-attack nor even another pandemic. The next global shock may be the use of nuclear weapons assisted by the more casual attitudes of [...] More

Tim Willasey-Wilsey
Opinion

Cold War 2.0 Will Be Won by Private Capital

Hamlet Yousef

The next Arsenal of Democracy will be built as much by investors, entrepreneurs, and operators as by government.Cold War 2.0 is not coming, it’s already here. This version will not be fought only with tanks, missiles, [...] More

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News & Analysis

U.S. Military Launches Operation Epic Fury Attacking Iran

Endless Warfare – Part II: Countering Endless Warfare and its Networks

Author’s Note: This article is not about ‘endless wars’ as a critique of U.S. military interventions — that debate belongs elsewhere. It examines a [...] More

United States Americas Dave Pitts North America

Opinion

Winning Battles, Losing Strategy: Why Military Superiority No Longer Guarantees Victory

Dr. John Bruni

Winning Battles, Losing Strategy: Why Military Superiority No Longer Guarantees Victory

America’s battlefield dominance remains unmatched, but Iraq, Afghanistan and now Iran shows that tactical success increasingly fails when military [...] More

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Book Reviews

Silva's Ransom Pays Off
Silva's Ransom Pays Off

Cole's Digital Danger Is A Useful Guide For The Wrong Audience
Cole's Digital Danger Is A Useful Guide For The Wrong Audience

The Nord Stream Sabotage: Mystery Attacks Explained
The Nord Stream Sabotage: Mystery Attacks Explained

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The Best National Security Gossip

FOR BETTER OR WORSE – According to reporting from MS NOW, (not the president’s favorite network) two Atlanta-based FBI intelligence analysts were dismissed after declining to participate in an investigation into what the president is convinced was voter fraud in the 2020 election. The two analysts reportedly told colleagues that they did not believe the probe met the standards typically required for an FBI inquiry. The analysts, a married couple, were reportedly escorted from the building, which saves them the agony of participating in an investigation that has become a major undertaking, with hundreds of FBI analysts [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Speaking on the NATO summit in Ankara, Nick Fishwick assesses the alliance’s most urgent challenges, from Europe’s push to increase defense spending to the need for greater intelligence sharing and military interoperability. He explains why a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine remains unlikely, what NATO is learning from Ukraine’s battlefield innovation, and why Russia continues to represent the alliance’s principal security threat. Fishwick also discusses the diminishing focus on Greenland as the war with Iran reshapes U.S. priorities.