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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

Interceptor Math: How Iran’s Drone Swarms Strain U.S. Defenses

With its ballistic missile arsenal depleted, Tehran is leaning on cheap drones, Russian intelligence support, and the hard economics of attrition to test U.S. and allied defenses.

Interceptor Math: How Iran’s Drone Swarms Strain U.S. Defenses

Western intelligence assessments indicate that Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal has been cut in half - from roughly 2,500 projectiles down to [...] More

Middle EastIran
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The Open Source Report

U.S. And Israel Wage War Against Iran

Global Intelligence Report for Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Trump and Putin discuss Iran conflict, Ukraine war in first call since hostilities began

Trump vacillates on whether U.S.-Iran conflict is nearing its ends amid economic strain, strikes

Capturing Iran’s highly enriched uranium would require a large US ground force, sources say

Anthropic files suit against Pentagon for ‘supply chain risk’ designation in AI usage dispute

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

America’s “Exquisite Class” Weapons Shortage

Walter Pincus

OPINION — “We just concluded a very good meeting with the largest U.S. Defense Manufacturing Companies where we discussed Production and Production Schedules. They have agreed to quadruple Production of the ‘Exquisite [...] More

AmericasFine PrintNorth AmericaUnited StatesWalter Pincus

The War’s Next Phase: Five Indicators That Matter Most

General Scott Miller (Ret.)

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – I’m always reluctant to comment on current events, as it feels a bit like being an armchair quarterback, but I have been asked about different parts of the ongoing conflict as people are trying to get [...] More

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News & Analysis

Commercial vessels divert to UAE coasts amid navigation issues

The Hormuz Standoff: Global Energy Flow Severs After 'Epic Fury' Strikes

The Hormuz Standoff: Global Energy Flow Severs After 'Epic Fury' StrikesAs tensions in and around Iran proliferate, the narrow waterway between Iran [...] More

Middle EastIran

Opinion

The Drone War’s Real Problem Isn’t Technology — It’s Speed

Peter Newell

The Drone War’s Real Problem Isn’t Technology — It’s Speed

OPINION — When Steve Blank and I sat down over coffee a decade ago and realized that the customer discovery process in Lean was identical to what I'd [...] More

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Book Reviews

Carter's China Gambit Revisited
Carter's China Gambit Revisited

Gray Zone Games: Idov's Thriller Mirrors Today's Shadowy Reality
Gray Zone Games: Idov's Thriller Mirrors Today's Shadowy Reality

The Original Sin of Vietnam
The Original Sin of Vietnam

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The Best National Security Gossip

FRESH PRINCE OF KATHMANDU: As readers of The Cipher Brief’s March 3 Global Intelligence Report know, the tiny Himalayan kingdom of Nepal, wedged between the world's two most populous nations, just handed its government to a political party led by a former rapper. Balendra Shah, a 35-year-old rapper-turned-politician, is headed for the prime minister's office after his Rastriya Swatantra Party swept Nepal's first parliamentary election since last year's Gen Z uprising toppled the old government. Shah trained as a civil engineer before breaking through as one of Nepal's most prominent rappers, releasing music targeting [...] More

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The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of March 13, 2026. This Black-Tie event is invite only, please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 13 March, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets

Investor Gilman Louie has spent much of his career focused on future national security. Tapped by former CIA Director George Tenet to be the first CEO of the Agency’s venture capital arm and later becoming an advisor and venture capital investor, Louie has spent decades working to identify the technologies that will ensure future national security. He told State Secrets podcast host Suzanne Kelly what clues we have about China’s future ambitions and why he believes we’re facing an Oppenheimer moment with AI.