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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

There Will be Unseen Costs to be Paid over the War in Iran. Who is Weighing Them?

As Negotiations Enter an ‘Operational Pause’, the Devil of any Deal is still in the Details.

TOPSHOT-IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-TRANSPORT-HORMUZ

EXPERT INTERVIEW – With an interim agreement expected as early as today between the U.S. and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping [...] More

Middle East Iran Brad Christian
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The Open Source Report

U.S. President Trump Arrives In China BEIJING, CHINA - MAY 13: Air Force One carrying US President Donald Trump arrives at Beijing Capital International Airport on May 13, in Beijing, China. President Trump is visiting China to meet with President Xi.(Photo by Fred Lee/Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Trump reportedly executed elaborate plan to board secret military flight from Turkey amid Iran threat

Hopes for Hormuz deal falter as Trump demands Iran pay compensation for deaths

Poland and Baltics shield infrastructure, fearing a Russian false-flag strike

New Mecca defense pact complicates China, India and Pakistan’s dangerous nuclear triangle

Access Today’s Report

Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

How Ukraine Is Changing the Way the U.S. Army Fights

Walter Pincus

“To me, the biggest way that we're doing this is introducing technology into the [U.S. Army] formations that is not fully baked. And so all of us who were in the Army in the 90s, the 2000s, even the 2010s, you were issued [...] More

Walter Pincus Fine Print
Opinion

America, North Korea, and the Search for Peace

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani

The South Korean Buddhist monk, the Venerable Pomnyun Sunimin, in his book “What is Happiness?” introduces us to his philosophy of life: “Everyone born into this world has the right to be happy … and being helpful to the [...] More

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani
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News & Analysis

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

Editor’s note- Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the character of warfare, proving that autonomous and attritable drones are no [...] More

Tech/Cyber Xen

Opinion

The Houthis’ External and Internal Crises Converge: Can a Tactical Solution Fix a Strategic Problem?

Ari Heistein

The Houthis’ External and Internal Crises Converge: Can a Tactical Solution Fix a Strategic Problem?

As they fire dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles against Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemeni government-controlled areas, the Houthis are [...] More

Alternative Perspectives

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Book Reviews

Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience
Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience

Sects, Lies, and Statecraft
Sects, Lies, and Statecraft

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The Best National Security Gossip

RUSSIA’S LEIPZIG MESSAGE? WE COULD HAVE BLOWN UP YOUR PLANE. U.S. intelligence believes the explosive-laden drone discovered at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle Airport was a Russian operation. According to The Guardian, German authorities, however, have not publicly endorsed that conclusion, leaving public attribution officially unresolved. The drone was found beside a Ukrainian cargo aircraft carrying ammunition and was packed with Semtex and a detonator. It reportedly may have struck the aircraft — but the bomb didn't explode. Investigators still aren't certain why. Which raises a deliciously sinister possibility: What if the [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Recorded on location in Kyiv, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery joins Suzanne Kelly for a timely State Secrets conversation on how Ukraine is reshaping the future of warfare.

Editor's Note: We caught up with Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery in Kyiv just as President Zelensky announced the firing of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, prompting a wave of protests. Since this interview was recorded, additional developments - including changes in Ukraine's military leadership - have overtaken parts of that discussion. The strategic insights on Ukraine's battlefield innovation, however, remain as relevant as ever.

From Ukraine's increasingly effective long-range drone campaign against Russia's military infrastructure to the growing strain on Kyiv's air defenses, Montgomery explains why this war is becoming the world's most important laboratory for military innovation. He also shares firsthand observations from his latest trip to Ukraine - including conversations with commanders on the front lines - and discusses what the U.S., NATO, and Taiwan should be learning before the next major conflict.