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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

The Continued Myth of Russia’s Imminent Collapse: Lessons from Prigozhin’s Mutiny Three Years On

As speculation about Vladimir Putin’s downfall grows again, lessons of Prigozhin’s rebellion remain widely misunderstood.

TOPSHOT-RUSSIA-UKRAINE-CONFLICT-WAGNER

KREMLIN FILES/COLUMN: Three years ago, in June 2023, the Kremlin confronted one of the most dramatic internal crises of Vladimir Putin's [...] More

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The Open Source Report

Damage caused by US strikes in Iran's Hormozgan province HORMOZGAN, IRAN - JULY 19: The bridge linking Bandar Abbas and Kehuristan, rendered unusable in a US strike, is seen in Iran's Hormozgan province, where Iranian authorities said the United States carried out attacks on 95 locations across 12 cities over the past 10 days, on July 19, 2026. (Photo by Amir Hossein Khorgooei/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, July 20, 2026

17 U.S. troops confirmed dead, 18th feared killed in Iran war as strikes intensify

U.S. launches Iran strikes for ninth day as another American confirmed killed

Mission in Iran war has pivoted toward ensuring oil flow, Trump official says

Russia's largest ballistic assault of war rocks Kyiv

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

25 Years After 9/11, the Next Global Shock Could be Worse

Tim Willasey-Wilsey

The next 9/11 is unlikely to be another terrorist attack of equivalent scale nor a cyber-attack nor even another pandemic. The next global shock may be the use of nuclear weapons assisted by the more casual attitudes of [...] More

Tim Willasey-Wilsey
Opinion

Cold War 2.0 Will Be Won by Private Capital

Hamlet Yousef

The next Arsenal of Democracy will be built as much by investors, entrepreneurs, and operators as by government.Cold War 2.0 is not coming, it’s already here. This version will not be fought only with tanks, missiles, [...] More

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News & Analysis

U.S. Military Launches Operation Epic Fury Attacking Iran

Endless Warfare – Part II: Countering Endless Warfare and its Networks

Author’s Note: This article is not about ‘endless wars’ as a critique of U.S. military interventions — that debate belongs elsewhere. It examines a [...] More

United States Americas Dave Pitts North America

Opinion

Ankara's Charm Offensive Should Not Buy Back the F-35

Sinan Ciddi

Ankara's Charm Offensive Should Not Buy Back the F-35

The choreography in Ankara last week was impressive, even by Recep Tayyip Erdogan's standards. Cannons fired, mounted honor guards paraded, and jets [...] More

Alternative Perspectives Jack Burnham

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

Silva's Ransom Pays Off
Silva's Ransom Pays Off

Cole's Digital Danger Is A Useful Guide For The Wrong Audience
Cole's Digital Danger Is A Useful Guide For The Wrong Audience

The Nord Stream Sabotage: Mystery Attacks Explained
The Nord Stream Sabotage: Mystery Attacks Explained

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The Best National Security Gossip

CARS OUT, TRICYCLES IN — Cuba, once known for streets teeming with vintage American cars, has witnessed a transformation in the way Cubans get around due to a crushing energy shortage on the island. Now, the streets are full of solar-powered electric tricycles. Because of a U.S. blockade and sanctions, solar-powered tricycles are running the same routes that buses once used. Many Cubans have sold their vehicles in order to be able to afford the Chinese-made tricycles.THE NINJA TURTLES — China’s Ministry of State Security has warned on WeChat that “spy turtles and sensor-studded fish” are allegedly prowling China’s coast [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Speaking on the NATO summit in Ankara, Nick Fishwick assesses the alliance’s most urgent challenges, from Europe’s push to increase defense spending to the need for greater intelligence sharing and military interoperability. He explains why a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine remains unlikely, what NATO is learning from Ukraine’s battlefield innovation, and why Russia continues to represent the alliance’s principal security threat. Fishwick also discusses the diminishing focus on Greenland as the war with Iran reshapes U.S. priorities.