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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

How America’s Adversaries Compete Across Peace and War

Rather than seeking decisive battlefield victory, U.S. adversaries are using long-term pressure campaigns to erode American power, autonomy, and resolve.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin Visits Beijing

Author’s Note: This article does not introduce “Endless Warfare” as another term in an already crowded national security lexicon. It examines an [...] More

Dave PittsAsia
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The Open Source Report

TOPSHOT - Two US flags and a Cuban flag flutter on the roof of a tricycle in front of the Capitolio in Havana on February 3, 2026. Cuba's government on February 2 told AFP that it was in "communication" with US President Donald Trump's administration but not yet in formal talks on a deal to end Washington's pressure campaign on the island. (Photo by YAMIL LAGE / AFP via Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, June 1, 2026

U.S. and Cuban military officials met outside of Guantánamo Base

U.S., Iran trade fresh strikes, Kuwait hit by drone and missile fire

Israel expands offensive in Lebanon, captures strategic castle in deepest incursion in 26 years

U.S. takes step to halt Nvidia AI chip shipments to Chinese firms outside China

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

Before Funding a Record Defense Budget, Congress Should Demand Answers on Iran

Michael C. Casey

As I listened to Defense Secretary Hegseth testify about the proposed $1.5 Trillion defense budget, the quote from Robert Heinlein, the science fiction writer, kept running through my mind: “The most expensive thing in [...] More

Opinion

Part II: When a Machiavellian and a Charismatic Met

Dr. Ursula M. Wilder
Dennis Wilder

In our pre-summit piece on the Xi/Trump meeting [When a Charismatic and a Machiavellian Meet 12 May] we wrote: "When a gifted political charismatic such as President Trump is paired in negotiation with an equally gifted [...] More

ChinaAsia
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News & Analysis

Remembering the Americans Who Made Ukraine’s War Their Own

Remembering the Americans Who Made Ukraine’s War Their Own

This Memorial Day, The Cipher Brief is remembering the Americans who answered the call after Russia launched its unprovoked, deadly invasion of [...] More

UkraineInternationalEurope

Opinion

Invisible Conflict: Defending Against Hybrid Non-Kinetic Warfare

Gilad Ben-Ziv

Invisible Conflict: Defending Against Hybrid Non-Kinetic Warfare

War doesn’t always look like war anymore. Hybrid non-kinetic warfare is an increasingly popular means for threat actors to orchestrate prolonged [...] More

Alternative Perspectives

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Book Reviews

The Long Reach Of Old Wars
The Long Reach Of Old Wars

Great Powers Are Back … Yet Again
Great Powers Are Back … Yet Again

Five Traitors, One Last Book Please
Five Traitors, One Last Book Please

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The Best National Security Gossip

THE BUTCHER’S BILL: In her first public speech, delivered May 27 at Bletchley Park, GCHQ's new director Anne Keast-Butler assigned a number to Russia's war dead: nearly 500,000 of its soldiers killed since 2022. That figure is hard to confirm but BBC News says their organization has verified more than 223,000 names. Given that both sides closely guard their own casualty counts there are undoubtedly many more, perhaps as many as GCHQ cites. To put that stunning half million number into perspective, the United States has 2.4 times Russia's population. So, it would be like the U.S. losing 1.2 million military personnel over [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets

What does it take to make a modern espionage thriller feel real?

In this episode of State Secrets, Suzanne Kelly sits down with acclaimed director Andrew Bernstein to discuss Jack Ryan: Ghost War — the new feature-length installment of the iconic franchise that brings shadow conflict, intelligence operations, and geopolitical tension into sharp focus.

Bernstein — whose work includes The Americans and Ozark — reveals how the production worked directly with the Central Intelligence Agency and MI6 to better understand the realities of intelligence work, the emotional toll of covert operations, and the evolving threats facing the West today.

The conversation explores the balance between realism and entertainment, why intelligence professionals connected deeply with the film, and how today’s gray zone conflicts — from cyber warfare to disinformation campaigns — are shaping modern storytelling. Bernstein also shares behind-the-scenes insight into filming unprecedented action sequences in central London and what it was like screening the movie at CIA headquarters.