Editor’s Note: Over the coming days, The Cipher Brief presents some of our most incisive coverage on key issues of 2016 and a look ahead at what is yet to come in 2017. 2016 has been a year of fundamental change for Turkey. In Syria, the threat of ISIS and ...

What most distinguishes human civilization in the 21st Century and during the emerging era of globalization is its ever intensifying complexity. Gone are the terrestrial frontiers and the disconnected solitude that comes with exploration of remote spaces; gone are the dumping grounds for our indiscretions. Everyone is connected and the ...

President Barack Obama and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan met this weekend for the first time since the July 15 failed coup attempt. “This is the first opportunity that I’ve had to meet face to face with President Erdogan since the terrible attempted coup,” Obama said during their meeting ...

Why has Russia under President Vladimir Putin remained fairly stable despite worsening economic conditions? Is Zimbabwe likely to become embroiled in conflict when its 92-year old dictator, President Robert Mugabe, passes on? Political upheavals like civil wars, military coups, and total state collapse are hard to predict but have massive ...

A few years ago, my colleagues and I published an article on forecasting instability in nations around the world.  Two things stood out in that paper.  First, the main determinant of instability was the type of regime.  States with partial democracies, especially ones that exhibited marked factionalism among political groups, ...

One week after the failed military coup took place in Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken significant steps to consolidate his power, firing thousands of government employees from many different sectors. To better understand Erdogan’s actions and how they are viewed by the Turkish public, The Cipher Brief’s Fritz ...