Report for Thursday, March 28, 2024

Netanyahu changes course, will send aides to White House to discuss battle for Rafah

Russia widens Ukraine strikes, hits Kharkiv with guided bomb

US sanctions Hamas funding network, North Korean military financiers

Haiti transitional council established

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Houthi Red Sea Attacks and the Impact on the Global Order.

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION — Moscow Terror Shows an ISIS Resurgence That Should Worry the U.S.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — In Gaza Ceasefire Talks, A Lesson from Yemen.

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — AI-Powered Adversaries are Gearing Up to Undermine Elections.

Netanyahu changes course, will send aides to White House to discuss battle for Rafah.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday reinstated a plan to send an Israeli delegation to Washington to discuss how to clear Hamas fighters out of Rafah without an all-out military assault and a high civilian death toll.  President Joe Biden asked for the meeting last week, hoping to persuade the Israeli military to spare civilians forced into Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, by relentless Israeli bombardment further north.  On Monday, Netanyahu scrapped his aides’ travel plans after the US abstained and did not veto a United Nations Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza and immediate return of hostages.  Without a U.S. veto, the resolution passed and, in Netanyahu’s view, put pressure on Israel.  “The bad thing about the US decision… was, it encouraged Hamas to take a hard line and to believe that international pressure will prevent Israel from freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas,” Netanyahu said Wednesday, according to the Times of Israel.  He insisted his move was “a message to Hamas: ‘Don’t bet on this pressure, it’s not going to work.’ I hope they got the message.”  (Point of fact: Hamas took its hard line in writing before the U.N. Security Council vote.) His aides have since reached out to the White House, asking to reschedule the canceled trip. The Times of Israel reported that Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Council chairman Tzachi Hanegbi will likely travel to Washington soon.  Bloomberg Jerusalem Post  Times of Israel Reuters Associated Press  

ANALYSIS –  Inside the Biden administration’s effort to shape Israel’s war plans.  Whenever Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu deals with political rivals, President Joe Biden, or most other world leaders, sparks fly.  Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s visit to Washington this week, by contrast, was quiet, intense and businesslike.  The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the tone of back-to-back meetings among the Israeli defense chief and senior White House and Pentagon officials was pragmatic and cooperative. “I think there is an understanding we have to dismantle Hamas,” Gallant said after leaving the White House. (The word “dismantle” crops up frequently in Israelis’ discussions of their goals.  As the Washington Post reported Wednesday, “The IDF says it has ‘dismantled’ 20 of the original 24 Hamas battalions. Dismantled does not mean destroyed.”) In contrast to President Biden’s roller-coaster relationship with Netanyahu, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gallant have maintained a strong, open channel, meeting several times and talking by phone about 40 times.

The Journal reports that in this week’s meetings, Pentagon officials pushed for a phased operation to dismantle Hamas’s four remaining battalions in Rafah without annihilating the cramped civilian population.  At a meeting at the Pentagon Tuesday, Austin pressed his Israeli counterpart to ensure that civilians are protected before the Israeli military operation is mounted.  “Our goal is to help Israel find an alternative to a full-scale and perhaps premature military operation,” a U.S. defense official told the Journal.  Since Austin and his team have not seen Israel’s plans in granular detail, they cannot be sure that those plans will actually protect civilians.  Wall Street Journal Washington Post

It is discouraging to see the apparent stall in a potential cease fire agreement in Gaza. A few days ago, I thought we were close, but Hamas continues to make unreasonable demands. Israel continues significant combat operations. Chances of a hostage deal are now 50-50 at best.

Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.)Former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO

@stavridisj on X

U.S. diplomats question Israel about alleged abuse of imprisoned Palestinian leader Barghouti.  State Department officials have told the Washington Post that the U.S. has informed Israel that it must “thoroughly and transparently investigate credible allegations of and ensure accountability for any abuses or violations” concerning Marwan Barghouti, a prominent Palestinian political figure imprisoned by Israel. His family and others have charged that he has been physically and psychologically mistreated since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. Barghouti, now 64 was convicted of murder in 2004 and is serving five life sentences. Israeli officials said he was a terrorist who ordered suicide bombings against civilian targets. Barghouti, who said in court he had no connection to the attacks, is being held in the Megiddo Prison, a maximum-security facility.  The Washington Post reported that a lawyer who met with Barghouti this week saw bruising over his right eye, his back and right foot. The lawyer wrote that Barghouti told him that, on March 6, “I was beaten for long minutes all over my body, mainly on the face, back, and legs. The severity of the beating caused me to collapse to the ground, at which point they persisted in striking me until I lost consciousness.” The State Department told the Post that the U.S. reminded Israeli officials  that Palestinian detainees must be held in “dignified conditions and in accordance with international law.”   Washington Post

Israel uses facial recognition program in Gaza to spot wanted people. It can make mistakes.  Hundreds of Palestinians have been picked out by a previously undisclosed Israeli facial recognition program used to conduct mass surveillance there, collecting and cataloging the faces of Palestinians without their knowledge or consent, according to Israeli intelligence officers, military officials and soldiers.  The technology was used in Gaza to search for hostages.  Now it’s being used to spot people with ties to Hamas or other militant groups.  It has wrongly flagged civilians as wanted Hamas militants, one officer said. The facial recognition program, run by Israel’s military intelligence, including the cyber-intelligence division Unit 8200, relies on technology from Corsight, a private Israeli company.   New York Times

State Dept. human rights staffer resigns to protest Biden’s Gaza policy.  Annelle Sheline, 38, resigned after a year as a foreign affairs officer in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor.   Sheline said her job had been promoting human rights in the Middle East and North Africa, work that was complicated by Israel’s war.  Washington Post

Spain airdrops 26 tonnes of aid to Gaza.  Spanish military planes air dropped 26 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Palestinians in the besieged Gaza Strip Wednesday.   The operation, carried out in coordination with Jordan and co-financed by the European Union, dropped more than 11,000 food rations to help alleviate the “catastrophic levels of food insecurity” faced by up to 1.1 million people in Gaza, the Spanish foreign ministry said in a statement.  Madrid called on Israel to open land border crossings to avert famine.  Meanwhile, in Istanbul, Turkish aid agency Humanitarian Relief Foundation announced it had acquired two ships to take aid directly to Gaza. It did not say when or if they would be loaded with aid and ready to set sail for the Gaza coast.  Reuters Times of Israel Barron’s  KC Reuters

International doctors visiting Gaza hospital describe horrific scenes.    After nearly six months of war, roughly a dozen of Gaza’s 36 hospitals are partially functioning. The rest have shut down or are barely functioning.  A team of international doctors who spent two weeks in Gaza tell a story of severely injured children, many orphaned, lingering near death in shattered medical facilities.   Associated Press

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — In Gaza Ceasefire Talks, A Lesson from Yemen.

SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — Houthi Red Sea Attacks and the Impact on the Global Order.

U.S. intercepts Houthi drones.  Between 2:00 and 2:20 a.m. (Sanaa time)  March 27, United States Central Command shot down four long-range unmanned aerial systems (UAS) launched at a U.S. warship by Houthi militants, CENTCOM said on X. It gave no further details. CENTCOM X

ANALYSIS – Western militaries stymied by Houthi militants.  `Despite their sophisticated weapons and intelligence systems, the U.S. and its allies haven’t stopped Houthi attacks on civilian freighters and warships.  The Houthi campaign, which has sunk one ship and taken casualties, is still a growing threat to the global economy. The number of vessels sailing through the southern Red Sea is down about 70 percent compared with early December. Container shipping has dropped about 90 percent.  Bloomberg

Bloomberg accurately captures the situation in the Red Sea, but this report is neither new information nor a surprise. Western policy has focused – successfully – on defense and gradual degradation of Houthi capabilities. There has been no effort to punish Iran or the Houthis for their actions nor has the degradation effort been aggressively executed in a manner that would defang the Houthis. Western military leadership and equipment has performed superbly. But if one is looking for a policy without a strategic purpose, this operation is a good illustration. The consequences of allowing Iran and its proxies to impact so many advanced and developing countries may not yet be fully appreciated.

Norman T. RouleFormer National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI

@Norman_Roule on X

Ukraine’s No. 2 city hit by a guided bomb as Russia widens strikes. Ukrainian officials reported a guided bomb attack on Kharkiv, killing one person and injuring 19. The missile used has a range of 90 kilometers and is described as having the destructive power between an aerial bomb and a missile. This comes amid increased Russian use of guided bombs and ballistic missiles, in cities such as Kyiv and Mykolayiv, targeting civilian infrastructure and challenging Ukrainian air defenses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for more Patriot missile systems to protect cities like Kharkiv from such attacks. The city, whose prewar population was more than 1 million, still faced water, heating and power shortages at the beginning of the week after a missile barrage on Friday. “Russian terror against the city is becoming increasingly heinous,” Zelensky said on X.   Separately, Ukraine’s Air Force said it intercepted 28 Russian drones launched from the Kursk region and occupied Crimea overnight.  The drones were downed over Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.  Bloomberg Reuters Kyiv Independent

Russian BUK System Destroyed by HIMARS. Ukrainian forces, using American HIMARS, reportedly destroyed a Russian Buk missile system in the Zaporizhzhia region, according to the Special Operations Forces. The strike specifics were identified through reconnaissance and shared for precision targeting, although independent verification of the destruction remains challenging due to direct evidence constraints.  Kyiv Post

Ukraine says it can down Zircon hypersonic missile with Patriot, SAMP/T.  A Ukrainian Air Force spokesman said Ukraine is capable of downing Russia’s 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile with SAMP/T and Patriot systems.  The comments came after claims that Russian forces used Zircon ballistic missiles in the March 25 attack on Kyiv.  The missiles have a top speed of around 8-9 Mach or about 10,000 kilometers per hour, and slow to around 4.5 mach when in strike trajectory.  Kyiv Independent

Putin tells pilots: F16s can carry nuclear weapons but they won’t change things in Ukraine.  President Vladimir Putin stated that supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighters would not change the battlefield situation but highlighted their nuclear capability, requiring adjustments in Russia’s military planning. Putin emphasized that if provided, these aircraft would be targeted just as other Ukrainian military equipment has been. His comments followed Ukrainian requests for F-16s, with several Western countries pledging to donate and assist in pilot training. Putin warned that F-16s operating from third-country airfields would also be considered legitimate targets.  Reuters Reuters

General Ben Hodges: ‘Russian refineries are a legitimate target of strikes by Ukraine’.  The BBC’s Ukraine service featured an interview conducted last Friday by Myroslava Petsa with retired U.S. Lt. General Ben Hodges.  Hodges emphasizes the need to further support Ukraine and criticizes the lack of strategic clarity and priorities to do so.  Hodges also underscores NATO’s significance and advocates for stronger U.S. support for NATO membership.  He also highlights the importance of European nations backing Kyiv against Russia.  He also notes potential military actions Ukraine can take against Russia, calling oil refineries in Russia “legitimate targets” and agreeing that destroying the Crimean bridge would be a “game changer.”  Hodges also stresses the importance of providing Ukraine with logistical support and helping it win in industrial competition with Russia.  BBC Ukraine

US turns to Turkey for explosives as war in Ukraine saps supply. The United States is negotiating with Turkey to increase purchases of explosives crucial for producing 155mm caliber artillery shells, aiming to support Ukraine defend itself against Russia. This move could significantly boost shell production and make Turkey the largest seller of artillery shells to the U.S. – providing 30% of the American supply by 2025. The effort reflects a broader Western push to match Russia’s military production capabilities as the global demand surge for ammunition, fueled by the Ukraine war, has put a strain on defense supply chains. Russia is expected to produce or procure 4 million rounds of artillery in 2024, compared to the European Union’s 1.4 million.  Bloomberg Kyiv Independent

UK firm supports Ukrainian armed forces in drone tech race. UK-based Evolve Dynamics is enhancing Ukraine’s drone technology to resist Russian electronic warfare, aiming to keep reconnaissance drones operational amid jamming efforts. This innovation is part of a global support initiative for Ukraine’s drone program, crucial for gaining an advantage in the war. The company focuses on developing algorithms to maintain drone communication. This development reflects a dynamic adaptation in military technology, with direct feedback loops between the battlefield and technology providers, spurring rapid upgrades and modifications to meet emerging challenges. “It’s a constant ping-pong game between adversaries,” said Mike Dewhirst, chief executive of Evolve Dynamics, who estimates there have been 85 upgrades made to the company’s Sky Mantis drones over the last two-and-a-half years. Britain said it is the largest supplier of drones to Ukraine, which is also ramping up production. There are now about 200 drone makers in Ukraine and the Strategic Industries Ministry has said the country could make as many as 2 million drones this year. Reuters

Poland doubles commitment to Czech-led Ukraine ammunition initiative.  Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said his government doubled its commitment to a Czech-led initiative to buy hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds for Ukraine. But Sikorski did not give a specific amount. The Czech plan involves procuring ammunition outside the European Union and delivering 800,000 shells to the Ukrainian front.  Bloomberg

Ukraine foreign minister arrives in New Delhi to boost ties with India, a historical ally of Russia. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is visiting New Delhi to enhance bilateral relations and cooperation with India, a traditional ally of Russia. His agenda includes meetings with Indian officials, including Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. The visit follows discussions between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and leaders of Ukraine and Russia, emphasizing India’s call for diplomacy to end the conflict in Ukraine and its readiness to assist peace efforts. Despite its longstanding ties with Moscow, India has been engaging with Western powers and looking to diversify its military and technology sources amid the ongoing war. Associated Press

Germany to hand over 10,000 artillery shells to Ukraine in coming days.  German General Christian Freuding said Germany will transfer 10,000 artillery rounds from its own military stocks to Ukraine in the coming days.  Freuding, who coordinates Ukraine aid at the German Defense Ministry, said the 10,000 shells will be the first of three batches.  The second includes 180,000 shells financed by Berlin under the Czech-led initiative.  The final phase is a long-term plan for Germany to supply around 100,000 rounds starting in the last quarter of 2024 under a bilateral agreement with an unnamed country.  Kyiv Independent

Speaker Johnson likely to face hurdles upon introducing Ukraine aid bill. House Speaker Mike Johnson is navigating internal party opposition to continue United States aid to Ukraine. He is emphasizing the importance of approving a $60 billion package when Congress resumes work in April. Yet he risks losing his job over the issue because of opposition to Ukraine funding from the isolationist wing of his party. “We’ll turn our attention to it and we won’t delay on that,” the Republican Louisiana representative said of the Ukraine package that he has refused to put to a vote for more than a month.  During a private fundraiser, he affirmed his commitment to supporting Kyiv, drawing on his Ronald Reagan values and denouncing Russian President Vladimir Putin. His efforts face challenges from hard-right members like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has threatened his position over the issue. “He should not bring funding for Ukraine,” Greene told reporters on the Capitol. Kyiv Independent New York Times Associated Press

Treasury sanctions Hamas funding network. The United States and the UK have sanctioned individuals and entities linked to Hamas for fundraising activities. The Department of the Treasury targeted two people and three groups, including Gaza Now and its founder Mustafa Ayash, for supporting Hamas financially. This action, in coordination with the UK, is part of ongoing efforts to disrupt Hamas’ financing, including online campaigns. Sanctions block all related U.S. property and transactions, with potential secondary sanctions for entities assisting significant transactions for designated persons. These measures aim to change behavior while allowing for legitimate humanitarian assistance in Gaza. Stars and Stripes U.S. Department of the Treasury Associated Press  

New US sanctions target North Korean military finances. The United States and South Korea announced sanctions against six individuals and two entities from Russia, China and the United Arab Emirates for their role in financing North Korea’s weapons programs. The coordinated action targets those involved in North Korea’s illicit financial operations, particularly in the IT sector abroad, aiming to hinder the development of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile capabilities. The sanctions follow the creation of a new task force by the U.S. and South Korea, focusing on preventing North Korea from obtaining illicit oil amid concerns about the effectiveness of existing United Nations sanctions against Pyongyang’s weapons advancements.  Reuters Kyiv Independent  

Federal appeals court keeps Texas border law blocked, in victory for Biden administration.  A divided federal appeals panel ruled Tuesday that a new Texas law that empowers state officials to detain and deport migrants, must remain on hold, deferring to broad federal control of immigration. The 2-1 decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit,  based in New Orleans, follows a lower-court ruling in February that cast doubt on the state law’s constitutionality. In the majority decision, the circuit’s chief judge, Priscilla Richman, a conservative, wrote that Congress “left no room” in U.S. law for state officials to intrude on immigration enforcement.  Texas could appeal Tuesday’s decision to the full 5th Circuit or to the U.S. Supreme Court. Or the state could wait to appeal the decision after an April 3 hearing on another aspect of the same case, by the same three-judge appeals court panel, Reuters Washington Post  Politico CNN CBS

U.S. guns pouring into Haiti.  The violence and chaos in Haiti is being fueled by the illegal trafficking of guns sourced largely from the U.S.  A U.N. report in January estimated that as many as a half a million illegal firearms have made their way to Haiti in 2020, with guns and ammunition being smuggled from U.S. states like Florida, Texas, and Georgia.  The U.N. found that weapons are being hidden in aid shipments and are sometimes delivered on clandestine airstrips built for humanitarian purposes after Haiti’s 2010 earthquake, which are now largely unmonitored.  The U.S. has pledged support to stop arms trafficking and gang violence.  BBC

Haiti’s transitional council issues its first statement, signaling its creation is nearly complete.  Haiti’s transitional presidential council, tasked with choosing a new prime minister, pledged to restore order and democracy in their first official statement. Despite the absence of one member, the eight present are committed to addressing the nation’s crises, including governance failures, violence and poverty. The council’s formation signals progress toward ending a prolonged nomination process amid recent gang violence targeting Port-au-Prince, causing deaths, homelessness and disruption. The council aims to boost democratic legitimacy, security, poverty relief, free elections and necessary reforms. Prime Minister Ariel Henry has stated his intention to resign once the council is officially established, highlighting a critical moment for national unity Associated Press

Almost 500 rights groups sign a letter pushing US to stop deporting Haitians fleeing violence. The Biden administration faces pressure from over 480 human rights organizations to halt deportations to Haiti, release detained Haitian migrants, close their deportation cases, and grant them Temporary Protected Status (TPS) amid escalating violence in Haiti. Despite the turmoil following a gang takeover and the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, the U.S. continues to return migrants interdicted at sea to Haiti, avoiding deportations by air due to gang control of Port-au-Prince’s airport. The administration argues that granting TPS could incentivize dangerous sea crossings, despite acknowledging the violence Haitians face. Critics argue for a policy reassessment, emphasizing the dire situation in Haiti. Reuters NBC News

Army artillery needs more range, mobility and autonomy, study finds. The U.S. Army plans to prioritize the development of autonomous artillery systems with extended range and enhanced mobility, following a comprehensive study on conventional fires. This strategy involves integrating robotics, advancing artillery munitions, and exploring mobile howitzer options. The decision reflects a shift from developing new platforms like the Extended Range Cannon Artillery system to focusing on maximizing existing artillery capabilities through innovative technologies. The Army’s approach aims for cost-effective enhancements in artillery’s effectiveness on the battlefield, moving away from towed howitzers towards autonomous and robotic solutions to support light infantry and mechanized units. Defense News

Ecuadorean officials seek police protection amid state of emergency.  In Ecuador, violence has escalated significantly, with 45 mayors requesting police protection amid a national crackdown on criminal groups. Since 2023, 22 local officials, including two mayors, have been violently killed. The government has responded by declaring a state of emergency, labeling 22 gangs as terrorist organizations. Mayors are now operating under threats, with some using bulletproof vests and hiring private security, as criminal groups infiltrate society and target public officials. Reuters

Macron and Lula launch a submarine built in Brazil with French tech.  French President Emmanuel Macron and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Wednesday attended a ceremony in Rio de Janeiro launching the third diesel-powered submarine built by Brazil with French technology.  France and Brazil entered the $10 billion partnership “ProSub” in 2008 to build the submarines, with an aim to build Brazil’s first nuclear-powered submarine by the end of the decade.  Lula said it seeks submarines to protect its waters, where most of its oil and gas comes from.  Reuters

Austin reaffirms support for Philippines, criticizes ‘dangerous’ Chinese conduct.  U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed the U.S.’s “ironclad commitment” to its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines on Wednesday in a call with his Philippine counterpart Gilberto Teodoro.  The Pentagon noted that Austin also specifically criticized China’s “dangerous” disruption of “a lawful Philippine resupply mission,” referring to the Chinese coastguard’s use of a water cannon on a Philippine vessel resupplying troops at the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands.  Reuters

Taiwan commissions 2 new navy ships amid China threat.  Taiwan has commissioned two new navy ships, a pair of Tuo Chiang-class corvettes, in response to the increasing threat from China. Taiwan has ordered six of the domestically produced vessels. Despite their small size, carrying only 41 sailors and officers, they are fast, maneuverable, have stealth capabilities, and are equipped with missiles and deck guns aimed at countering larger Chinese vessels and rocketry. China’s heightened naval and air force activities around Taiwan have prompted Taiwan to bolster its defense measures.  Associated Press

Russian delegation visits North Korea over espionage threat.  North Korean state media KCNA said Thursday that a delegation of Russia’s External Intelligence Bureau visited Pyongyang this week to discuss counter-spying cooperation.  The bureau’s director, Sergei E. Naryshkin, met with North Korean Minister of State Security Ri Chang Dae, and officials of the intelligence bureau and ministry held working-level talks on the “ever-growing spying and plotting moves by the hostile forces,” KCNA reported.  Reuters

Pakistan unveils aircraft and rocket programs, parades military tech.  Pakistan’s military showcased its latest defense capabilities and unveiled several new programs during the Pakistan Day Parade held in Islamabad. Among the highlights was the display of the Haider platform, the first locally produced, Chinese-designed VT-4 main battle tank, which is part of a 2017 deal that involved the procurement of 300 VT-4 tanks from China and local production by state-owned Heavy Industries Taxila. The long-range HQ-9/P surface-to-air missile system was also new, supplied by China, and confirmed by the parade announcer to have a range of 125 kilometers (78 miles), along with the Fatah 2 guided multiple-launch rocket system and the medium-range Ababeel ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles. Pakistan also announced new programs, including the PFX effort to replace the JF-17 combat aircraft, the soon-to-be-introduced 450-kilometer-range Fatah 3, and the ongoing development of the 700-kilometer-range Fatah 4, showcasing the country’s efforts to bolster its defense capabilities.  Defense News

Myanmar junta chief calls for unity, says military holding power ‘temporarily. Myanmar’s military leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, asserts the junta’s temporary hold on power aims to fortify democracy and calls for unity against groups disrupting election plans. Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has been embroiled in civil war, with the military combating uprisings and an economic downturn. Hlaing accuses opponents of foreign support and spreading misinformation while denying allegations of military atrocities. He emphasizes the need for military-civilian unity and a conscription drive. International condemnation continues over the regime’s violence against civilians. Hlaing reiterated that the military had seized power because a 2020 election was marred by fraud, with nearly 30% of ballots invalid. The party of Aung San Suu Kyi, which won that vote in a landslide, has denied that accusation. Suu Kyi is currently in prison, sentenced to 27 years for various alleged offenses. Reuters Al Jazeera

India to spend $3.7 billion to fence Myanmar border, source says. India is set to invest approximately $3.7 billion to fence its 1,610-kilometer border with Myanmar within a decade, aiming to curb smuggling and other illegal activities. This move, which requires Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cabinet approval, follows India’s decision to fence the border and terminate a visa-free movement policy due to national security concerns and demographic preservation in its northeastern region. The initiative reflects heightened worries over communal tensions and the ongoing civil unrest in the eastern Indian state of Manipur, attributed partly to the porous border. Additionally, the project includes constructing parallel and feeder roads to enhance military access, with costs heightened by challenging terrain and advanced technology requirements. Reuters

Russia still blames the concert massacre on Ukraine and the West.  Russia continues to double down on the narrative that Ukraine and its Western allies were somehow responsible for the Moscow terrorist attack last week.  Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, which killed 140 people.  Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday that it is “extremely hard to believe” that Islamic State could have launched the attack, adding that Western countries are trying to “ward off suspicions” by confirming that the group is to blame.  Zakharova and other Russian officials have not provided evidence of their assertions that Ukraine or the West are linked to the attack.  Kyiv continues to deny the accusations.  Ukraine’s intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, revealed that Russia had prior knowledge of an impending terrorist attack on its territory since at least February 15. Budanov suggested the lack of preventative action by Russia could be due to internal power struggles or an underestimation of the attack’s scale. He criticized Russia’s baseless accusations against Ukraine, echoed by President Zelensky who labeled them as predictable attempts to deflect blame.  Moscow is still reeling from the massacre.  Russian news outlet Baza reports that 95 people are still missing after the attack.  Wall Street Journal Reuters Reuters Kyiv Independent

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION — Moscow Terror Shows an ISIS Resurgence That Should Worry the U.S.

I think we have to distinguish between Putin’s propaganda and accusing Ukraine of this terrorist attack, when, in fact, he does know. And so I’m quite sure the FSB is mounting a full-court press to make sure that there are not follow-on attacks. He absolutely knows what happened. One of the things that Putin offered his people was stability and order. He’s kind of broken that promise multiple times. That’s not a good look for Russia or for the security services.

Daniel HoffmanFormer Senior CIA Officer

NPR All Things Considered

Russia amps up online campaign against Ukraine before US elections. Russia is intensifying its online disinformation campaign to influence the upcoming U.S. elections, leveraging sophisticated technologies to advocate for isolationism and oppose military support for Ukraine. Intelligence agencies and experts note the Kremlin’s more covert tactics, focusing on influencing democracies to elect candidates against aid to Ukraine, potentially fostering isolationist policies. The campaign, attributed to Russian intelligence and associated entities, utilizes advanced techniques to mimic legitimate news sites, subtly amplifying isolationist narratives. U.S. officials are wary of directly attributing these operations to Russia due to their sophisticated nature, marking a strategic evolution from earlier, more blatant interference efforts. New York Times 

Germany to speed up arms purchases in defense industry shakeup. Germany is expediting weapons purchase approvals and providing more certainty for large arms contracts, responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the changed global threat landscape. Economy Minister Robert Habeck emphasized the need to increase security-related production after discussions with the defense sector. Despite a €100 billion fund to modernize its military, Germany faces internal debates over supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles. The government seeks to streamline the procurement process and adjust dual-use goods regulations, advocating for a European Union defense commissioner to oversee a unified procurement market. Bloomberg 

Macron wants to run Europe’s foreign policy. Not everyone agrees.  French President Emmanuel Macron’s assertive foreign policy stance, particularly on Ukraine, has placed him at the forefront of European Union leadership amid the UK’s departure from the 27-nation bloc and Germany’s internal divisions. His controversial remarks about potentially deploying troops to Ukraine sparked criticism from allies like Germany and the United States. While some EU members appreciate Macron’s firmer approach, others are wary, seeing the French leader as more talk than action. “We need to focus on Ukraine’s needs, not on what Ukraine isn’t asking for,”  Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina said at a press conference with German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz on Wednesday. Since the start of the war, France has lagged far behind its allies in terms of overall aid sent to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker. It has pledged Kyiv less than €2 billion in support, in contrast to Germany’s €22 billion, reflecting a broader debate about Macron’s ability to deliver on ambitious foreign policy goals.  Bloomberg

UK lawmakers, defense chief clash over looming defense spending cuts. In a contentious parliamentary session, UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps faced criticism for cuts to the core defense budget for 2024-2025, despite claiming an increase when accounting for supplementary funds for Ukraine aid and ammunition stockpiles. Lawmakers labeled the budget adjustments as “smoke and mirrors” and accused Shapps of misrepresenting the financial reality following a £2.5 billion reduction in defense spending. Despite these accusations, Shapps maintained that the overall defense budget would see a £1.4 billion increase to £55.6 billion with the inclusion of Ukraine funding. This debate arises amid concerns about the UK’s military readiness for high-intensity conflicts, underscored by a Defense Committee report highlighting capability and personnel shortfalls. Defense News

EU police agency investigating missing documents.  Highly sensitive files containing the personal information of top law enforcement executives vanished from a secure storage room at Europol’s headquarters in The Hague last summer.  The incident, revealed through an internal agency note and confirmed by current and former staff, caused concern over a potential security breach.  An investigation is ongoing.  Some files have since resurfaced, having been abandoned in a public place.  Officials say one theory about the incident is that the files may have been taken to damage the head of Human Resources at Europol, Massimiliano Bettin, in the context of an internal conflict.  Bettin was placed on leave after the files disappeared.  Politico

Russia turns to Belarusian gasoline amid drone attacks on refineries.  Russia boosted gasoline imports from Belarus amid shortages due to disruptions at Russian refineries caused by Ukrainian drone attacks.  Imports surged to nearly 3,000 metric tons in early March compared to 590 tons in February and none in January.  Sources say Russia, traditionally a fuel exporter, is seeking further imports, but Belarus faces capacity constraints and is also trying to prioritize fuel for international markets.  Sources added that the extent of imports needed by Russia hinges on the timing of refinery repairs, and Russian oil companies could increase oil supplies to Belarus in exchange for petroleum products from Belarusian refineries.  Moscow and Minsk did not comment on the matter.  Reuters 

ANALYSIS – In a secret game of prisoner swaps, Putin has held most of the cards.  During a confidential meeting in the Oval Office, President Joe Biden and Chancellor Scholz of Germany contemplated a significant prisoner exchange with Russia. This proposed swap aimed to return Americans Paul Whelan and Evan Gershkovich, held by Russia on false espionage charges, in exchange for Russian convict Vadim Krasikov, imprisoned in Germany for murder. The plan was disrupted before formalization when Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, a key figure in the negotiation, died under mysterious circumstances in a Russian prison on Feb. 16.  As of today, the U.S. doesn’t have any Russians in its prison system that the Kremlin wants in return for the Americans it has jailed. Washington has been reduced to hoping foreign governments might be willing to trade Russians they hold on espionage or murder charges. “Putin will take more and more Americans,” Fiona Hill, who sat across the table from Russia’s president as the top Russia adviser for President Donald J. Trump, told the Wall Street Journal. “He has figured out he can exploit our domestic preoccupations and anxieties.” Wall Street Journal

Iraq signs 5-year gas supply deal with Iran, says state media.  Iraq signed a 5-year gas supply deal with Iran, with pumping rates of up to 50 million cubic meters per day according to the needs of Iraqi power stations, state media reported on Wednesday. Reuters

Putin discusses security cooperation with West and Central African leaders.  Russian President Vladimir Putin held discussions on security and economic cooperation with Mali’s junta leader, Assimi Goita, over the phone on Wednesday.  They agreed to deepen ties and collaborate further in counterterrorism.  A day earlier, Putin held a phone call with Niger’s junta leader, Abdourahamane Tiani, about boosting security cooperation.  Putin has increasingly reached out to West and Central African nations, which are dealing with jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel region and turning from longstanding Western allies.  Reuters

Senegal opposition leader officially confirmed as election winner with 54% of the vote. Senegal’s opposition leader, Bassirou Diomaye Faye of the Pastef party, was declared the presidential election winner with 54% of the vote, defeating the Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition’s Amadou Ba. The National Vote Counting Commission reported a 61% voter turnout. Faye, a former tax inspector who became prominent after being chosen by disqualified opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, won key regions including Dakar. He aims to tackle corruption, living costs and strengthen institutions, with plans to renegotiate oil and gas contracts and review Senegal’s currency and fisheries agreements.  Bloomberg Associated Press Al Jazeera  

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVE OPINION — AI-Powered Adversaries are Gearing Up to Undermine Elections.

China’s WuXi AppTec shared U.S. intellectual property with Beijing, US intelligence officials told senators.  In late February, U.S. intelligence officials briefed senators about concerns regarding Chinese biotech firm WuXi AppTec transferring U.S. intellectual property to China without consent. The briefing highlighted worries about Chinese biotech companies contributing to China’s military, leading to proposed legislation restricting U.S. government funds to these firms. The Senate’s Homeland Security Committee subsequently approved the Prohibiting Foreign Access to American Genetic Information Act of 2024, aiming to restrict business with Chinese biotech companies. The Biden administration also issued an executive order barring genomic and other data transfers to China due to national security concerns. WuXi AppTec has denied allegations of wrongdoing.  Reuters 

Three Chinese satellites achieve lunar orbits while two others in question.  China’s Queqiao-2 communications relay satellite successfully entered lunar orbit on Monday along with two smaller satellites designed to test lunar navigation technologies, according to the China National Space Administration (CNSA).  However, two other satellites, named DRO-A/B, have not reached their designated altitude due to an upper-stage rocket issue.  Harvard astronomer Jonathan McDowell said Chinese statements that adjustments are still being made suggests “that the DRO satellites are still trying to get to the moon.”  Over the next several days, adjustments will be made to the Queqiao-2 to enter a 24-hour-period final orbit, a flight pattern that will require little maintenance during its eight years of operation.  The Queqiao-2 will conduct communications tests with the Chang’e-4 spacecraft that has been performing scientific research since 2019 in the Von Kármán crater on the far side of the moon.  Queqiao-2 enables communications between the earth and the moon’s far side and helps devices on the lunar surface talk to each other.  Queqiao-2 will pave the way for the Chang’e 6 mission in May that will collect and return moon samples for the first time from the moon’s far side.  South China Morning Post

China patent data show U.S. lead narrowing in key quantum sectors.  Patent data from China’s intellectual property office indicates that a shift may be occurring in the country’s approach to quantum technology.  While long recognized for its prominence in quantum communications, China’s patent information from 2013 to 2022 shows that almost 57 percent of domestic patents were awarded for quantum computing, a traditional stronghold of the U.S.  Quantum communications patents amounted to just over 30 percent of the total during that period.  A paper released by the China National Intellectual Property Administration described an “historical leap” to global leadership in quantum patents and production.  Another paper said China has achieved “quantum superiority” globally, accounting for 37 percent of quantum patent applications worldwide, outdistancing the U.S. at 28 percent.  The U.S. is widely recognized as the leader in quantum computing and quantum sensing, although a British data analytics firm that in 2022 attributed a five-year lead to the U.S. said last month that China and the U.S. now “stand almost neck-in-neck.”  South China Morning Post

U.S. asks allies to expand limits on servicing chipmaking gear for China.  The United States is asking allies to stop domestic companies from servicing certain chipmaking tools for Chinese customers, a U.S. commerce department official said on Wednesday, as Washington ramps up efforts to hobble China’s chipmaking capabilities.  The effort to enlist allies in the servicing limits follows U.S. rules that made it difficult for U.S. companies to service chipmaking equipment in China.  The restrictions did not extend to chipmaking equipment leaders Netherlands and Japan, which have adopted their own export controls on the technology.  Reuters Bloomberg

E.U. cyber agency highlights supply chains, skill gaps in ‘top 10’ threat list.  An E.U. cybersecurity agency has released a study indicating that skill shortages, supply chain weaknesses, and unprotected computer systems lead the list of the 10 cyber threats with the most impact through 2030.  The E.U. Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) added to its projection two new areas of concern — exploitation of unpatched and out-of-date systems and physical impacts of natural/environmental disruptions on key digital infrastructure.  Supply chain software compromises remain at the top of the threat list followed by cybersecurity talent and education gaps.  ENISA executive director Juhan Lepassaar said that continuous observation and evaluation of threats and trends “is key to achieving a higher level of cybersecurity. In this way, we better withstand today’s challenges and enhance our mitigation plans for the years to come.”  The 24 experts who participated in the study also identified significant trends, including increasing dependence on automated data analysis for decision nmaking, growth in the number of satellites requiring regulatory frameworks, challenges in controlling personal data, and rising energy consumption in digital infrastructure.  Cybernews

U.S. announces $10 million reward for information on healthcare sector hackers.  The State Department has issued a $10 million bounty for information on the BlackCat ransomware gang that compromised computer systems of the UnitedHealth Group, disrupting medical insurance payments across the U.S.   UnitedHealth reported last week that it is recovering  from a medical claims backlog of over $14 billion stemming from the cyberattacks that began in late February.  Especially hard hit have been health facilities that serve 30 million poor and underinsured patients.  Reuters State Department

German cybersecurity agency warns of widespread Microsoft server vulnerability.   Germany’s national cybersecurity agency announced this week it has discovered 17,000 Microsoft Exchange online servers that are exposed to one or more critical vulnerabilities.  The German Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) said that 12 percent of the 45,000 Microsoft Exchanges servers in use in the country use outdated 2010 or 2013 versions of Exchange that have not been updated since 2020 or 2023.  In addition, about 28 percent of Exchange 2016 or 2019 servers have not been patched for four months, making them vulnerable to a critical security flaw that can be exploited by remote code execution.  The BSI said “overall, at least 37 percent of Exchange servers in Germany are severely vulnerable.”  The BSI added that “many schools and universities, clinics, doctors’ surgeries, nursing services and other medical facilities, lawyers and tax consultants, local authorities and medium-sized companies are particularly affected.”  BleepingComputer Cybernews

Finland hosts new NATO research facilities for advanced technology.  Finland has announced plans to establish two NATO research centers and an accelerator facility under the alliance’s Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) program.  The centers based in Espoo will focus on advanced technologies while the accelerator unit operating from a new facility in Oulu will pursue cyber research, including on 6G network technology.  The Espoo units are expected to collaborate with VTT, Finland’s largest technical research center and focal point for Finnish quantum computer development.  Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said the new units will create business opportunities for domestic technology companies and will heighten Finland’s profile in NATO, which admitted the country last April.  Defense News

Finland conducts extensive investigation of APT31 breach of parliament IT systems.  Finnish authorities have confirmed that the China-linked APT31 hacking group carried out a compromise of the parliament’s computer systems in 2021.  Since that time, the Finnish intelligence service has conducted a criminal investigation jointly with international partners into suspected espionage, breaches of communications security, and the compromise of the Finnish parliament’s IT systems.  According to the National Bureau of Investigation, the investigation has uncovered a “complex criminal infrastructure.”   BleepingComputer Cybernews

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Ken Hughes, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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