Report for Monday, August 5, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Blinken tells G7 ministers to brace for Iran, Hezbollah attacks on Israel within a day

White House says increased military presence in Middle East intended to deter escalation

Ukraine finally flying F-16 fighter jets, says Zelensky

Maduro vows to crush opposition as loss becomes more apparent, and arrests continue

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Dealing with ‘Axis of Authoritarians’ Requires Greater U.S. Policy RiskThe Cipher Brief 

Prisoner Swap Could Open Doors to Further OpportunityThe Cipher Brief 

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR

Israeli strike on Gaza City school kills 15 Palestinians; strikes in West Bank kill Hamas commander, eight more Hamas fighters.  An Israeli airstrike on a school in Gaza City killed at least 15 Palestinians Saturday, the Hamas run-government media office said. The Israeli military said Hamas was using the school as a command center, to hide militants and manufacture weapons. Earlier on Saturday, Israeli strikes killed six people in a house in Rafah and two others in Gaza City, Gaza health officials said.  The Israeli military said its forces had struck militants and destroyed Hamas infrastructure in Rafah and elsewhere in the enclave.  Two Israeli strikes in the occupied West Bank killed nine militants including a local Hamas commander, Hamas said.  A Hamas statement said one of those killed was a commander of its Tulkarm brigades. Four other men who died in the same strike were Islamic Jihad fighters, the militant group said.

Hours later, a second airstrike in the area killed nine Hamas militants who had fired on troops, the Israeli military and Hamas said.  Reuters 

Israeli delegation makes fast, fruitless appearance at Cairo truce talks.  A high-level Israeli delegation made a quick trip to Cairo Saturday to resume Gaza ceasefire talks but shuttled back to Israel the same day.  The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of trying to change the "outline" of a potential agreement.  Meanwhile, chances of a deal appeared to dwindle after the assassination last Wednesday of an Israeli strike killed Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last Tuesday, and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated Wednesday in Tehran.  Though Israel has not confirmed that it orchestrated Haniyeh's assassination, Netanyahu boasted that Israel had delivered crushing blows to Iran's proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. Reuters   

Hezbollah pounds Israel with rocket, artillery fire.  Hezbollah resumed rocket and artillery attacks against Israel Friday, firing a surface-to-air missile at an Israeli warplane flying in Lebanese airspace and launching two artillery attacks and two rocket strikes at military positions in northern Israel.  The Israeli military said it had successfully intercepted an aerial target coming from Lebanon into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire hit several villages in southern Lebanon on Friday, according to Lebanese state media. The Israeli military also said it had hit two Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon.  An Israeli strike on the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh killed an Iranian military adviser and five civilians.  The Israeli Defense Forces said Monday night local time that it spotted numerous aerial targets entering Israel from Lebanon, launched interceptors and downed a target. An IDF officer and soldier were moderately injured and evacuated to a hospital, the IDF said. Reuters Jerusalem Post  

Blinken tells G7 ministers to brace for Iran, Hezbollah attacks on Israel within a day. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told G7 foreign ministers in a conference call Sunday that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could start as early as Monday, Axios reported Sunday night.  Blinken convened the group talk to ask the allies to exert diplomatic pressure on Iran and Hezbollah, in hopes that they will act with restraint and stop short of escalating to all-out war. According to Axios, Blinken told the allies that the U.S. is convinced Iran and Hezbollah will both retaliate for the assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, but he didn’t know what form the attacks will take. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III ordered additional American combat aircraft and missile-shooting warships to the region Friday.  Blinken told the G7 foreign ministers that U.S. forces in the region were boosted strictly for defensive purposes only.  Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, arrived in  Israel over the weekend, as part of a pre-planned trip, where he is expected to work with the Israel Defense Forces ahead of the anticipated attacks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a meeting on Sunday night with Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant and the heads of the military and the intelligence services.  Gallant also spoke Sunday with Defense secretary Lloyd Austin. Other countries in the region were also bracing. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi went to Tehran Sunday, met with acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri and passed along a message from King Abdullah II to the Iranian president, according to a Jordanian Foreign Ministry statement. "I didn't come here to convey a message from Israel or to receive a message for Israel. I came here to express concern about regional escalation," Safadi said after his meeting in Tehran.  Egypt's foreign minister, Badr Abdelatty, said in a phone call with Iran's acting foreign minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, that recent developments in the region were "unprecedented, very dangerous" and threatening to stability, Egypt's government said. The Italian Foreign Ministry delivered a message urging restraint through the Iranian ambassador in Rome. Iran rejected efforts to dial down its response.  Axios  Wall Street Journal  State Department  Reuters  New York Times

Iran says Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed by short-range projectile.  Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Saturday that Palestinian militant group Hamas' leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed by a short-range projectile with a warhead of about 7 kg.  Revenge for the killing of the Hamas leader will be "severe and at an appropriate time, place, and manner", the Guards' statement added, blaming the "terrorist Zionist regime" of Israel for his death.  Reuters  

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine says it sank Russian submarine, hit airfield, oil depots. Ukraine's military said on Saturday that it had sunk a Russian submarine in Kremlin-controlled Sevastopol and attacked other Russian targets, including a southern airfield and oil depots in Belgorod, Kursk, and Rostov regions. The Sevastopol attack reportedly also damaged four S-400 air defense system launchers, besides destroying the $300 million Rostov-on-Don, a kilo-class attack submarine launched in 2014. If true, it would mark the first time one of four such vessels in the Black Sea Fleet had been sunk. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated calls for Western support for long-range attacks on Russia. "Russian combat aviation must be destroyed wherever it is, using any effective means,” he said. Russia did not immediately comment on the attacks, but local officials reported fires at fuel storage depots due to drone attacks. Ukraine has used missiles and sea drones to sink or damage at least 15 Russian ships in the Black Sea, forcing the Russian Navy to withdraw most of its vessels from occupied Crimea. It has also twice struck and damaged a road-and-railway bridge connecting Russia to Crimea that had been a key military supply artery. Reuters Reuters Wall Street Journal BBC  

Ukraine finally flying F-16 fighter jets, says Zelensky. Ukrainian pilots have begun using U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday. The arrival of 10 jets, long sought by Kyiv, is expected to enhance Ukraine's air defenses and battlefield capabilities. By 2025, 79 jets will arrive. The United States has agreed to arm the F-16s with missiles and other advanced weapons, which should help Ukraine conduct more long-range strikes behind Russian lines, said Nico Lange, a military expert and former German defense official. Despite the new capability, Ukraine lacks enough trained pilots and aircraft. Russia has vowed to down the F-16s and has targeted bases potentially housing them. Zelensky emphasized the need for expanded training programs and more jets. He also proposed a coalition of neighboring NATO countries to intercept Russian missiles. Ukraine has previously relied on an aging fleet of Soviet-era warplanes that are outgunned by Russia's more advanced and far more numerous fleet. Reuters Bloomberg New York Times Economist 

Interview with Nico Lange onThe Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel 

Ukraine watches warily as prisoner swap shows Moscow and West can negotiate. Following Thursday’s prisoner swap between Russia and the West involving 24 detainees, Ukraine is wary of being sidelined in potential peace negotiations. Although Ukrainian officials were not part of the deal, President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that any future talks about the war must include Ukraine. The complex swap involved nine countries, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed speculation about it leading to broader negotiations. Ukrainians fear the swap’s success could set a precedent for Russia to exploit. History shows good reasons for Kyiv to worry about being forced into compromises. When Russia initially invaded 10 years ago, the leaders of France and Germany, François Hollande and Angela Merkel, pushed Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to sign a cease-fire deal, known as the Minsk accords, on deeply unfavorable terms. Russia was treated as a guarantor of the deal rather than as a party to the conflict. Washington Post 

Kremlin hails return of spies but says swap won’t end fight over Ukraine. The Kremlin celebrated Thursday’s return of elite spies and a convicted assassin in a complex prisoner swap with the West but emphasized it wouldn't lead to peace talks over Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the exchange, negotiated by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the Russian Federal Security Service, addressed mutual interests and did not represent any thaw in U.S.-Russia relations. The swap saw Russia release 16 prisoners, including prominent opposition figures, while the West released eight prisoners and two children. The event highlighted Russia's focus on national security interests and ongoing intransigence, with no signs of easing its war against Ukraine. Washington Post

Ukraine foreign minister heads to Africa to win support in war against Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is visiting Malawi, Zambia, and Mauritius from Sunday to Thursday to garner support for Ukraine's stance in its war with Russia. This marks his fourth diplomatic tour to Africa in two years. Kuleba aims to strengthen bilateral relations and encourage African participation in efforts to restore peace. Discussions will also cover the supply of Ukrainian grain and the involvement of African companies in Ukraine's reconstruction. Despite attending a Ukraine conference in June, many African countries have been hesitant to isolate Russia, a key energy and commodities supplier. Reuters

Mali breaks diplomatic ties with Ukraine. Mali's transitional government is cutting diplomatic ties with Ukraine, citing Ukraine's alleged support for Tuareg-led rebels. The Sunday announcement follows battle losses for Malian soldiers and Russian Wagner Group mercenaries against anti-government groups. Ukrainian military intelligence hinted at cooperation with the rebels. This decision coincides with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's tour of African nations. Russia has gained influence in Mali since a 2021 coup. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg

Ukraine receives $3.9 billion grant from US. Ukraine has received $3.9 billion from the U.S. via the World Bank, marking the first tranche of a 2024 financial agreement. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Monday the funds will support salaries for teachers, doctors, and rescue workers, as well as pensions and social benefits. Kyiv will receive $7.8 billion in direct U.S. budget support this year. The World Bank’s Peace in Ukraine project has raised nearly $30 billion, aiding Ukraine's economy amid the ongoing war. A recent World Bank report highlighted increased poverty, with 9 million Ukrainians now living in poverty. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine estimates 700,000 people will leave country in 2024-2025. The National Bank of Ukraine predicts 400,000 people will leave the country in 2024 and 300,000 in 2025, citing energy insecurity and slow economic stabilization due to safety risks. This surge adds to the over 6 million Ukrainians already abroad due to Russia's invasion, worsening economic and demographic challenges. In 2023, 200,000 people left Ukraine. The NBU anticipates 400,000 refugees will return in 2026. Ukraine's population, once over 50 million in the early 1990s, fell to 37 million by January 2024 and could drop to 15.3 million by 2100. Kyiv Independent 

Pokrovsk sector scene of 'most severe battles,' Zelensky says. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that the Pokrovsk sector in eastern Ukraine is witnessing the "most severe battles." He emphasized that this area is crucial for Ukraine's defense, requiring an intense response to Russian forces. After Russia's Kharkiv Oblast offensive failed, Moscow shifted focus to the east, particularly Pokrovsk. Zelensky mentioned Russian plans to advance in other eastern areas but noted Pokrovsk as the main focus. He stressed the need for faster aid deliveries and highlighted that 14 new Ukrainian brigades have been formed but are not yet fully equipped to relieve front-line units. Kyiv Independent

Russian troops inch forward in Ukraine's east with waves of bombs and infantry.  Russian forces are intensifying their assaults on the strategic logistics hub of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, leading to territorial gains and a surge in civilian evacuations. Over the past week, Russia has captured around 57 square kilometers, its largest gain since spring. Using warplanes to drop guided bombs followed by infantry assaults, Russia's tactics are causing major pressure on Ukrainian defenses. Civilians, like Antonina Kalashnikova and her disabled son, are fleeing the relentless bombings, with evacuation requests rising tenfold in two weeks. The situation is exacerbated by the stretched thin Ukrainian troops and ongoing fierce attacks. Valeriy Romanenko, a Kyiv-based aviation expert, said that "the Russians are not piercing our defense, they are pushing it back. They are advancing 100, 150, 200 meters every day using this tactic: dropping guided bombs, then a 'meat assault', (and if those are) repelled, dropping guided bombs again, a 'meat assault' again.” Reuters

SBU intercepts large-scale FSB saboteur network across Ukraine. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Monday it intercepted a large-scale sabotage network organized by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), involving nine individuals across six oblasts, including two Ukrainian government officials. The network scouted critical infrastructure and military positions for Russia. Those arrested, including a Dnipro City Council member and a Yuzhne city council official, face treason charges and potential life imprisonment. Kyiv Independent 

Russia targets critical infrastructure across Ukraine, injures over a dozen civilians. Russian forces targeted critical infrastructure in Sumy, Kherson, and Poltava oblasts, injuring over a dozen civilians, authorities reported on Sunday. In Kherson, attacks hit residential buildings and other facilities, wounding 15 people. Overnight strikes in Poltava damaged railway infrastructure, delaying trains. Sumy oblast faced drone and artillery attacks damaging infrastructure, while in Donetsk, one person was killed and three injured. Kharkiv oblast suffered damage from multiple bombs, missiles, and a drone. Kyiv Independent 

Russian drone attack damages infrastructure in Ukraine's Vinnytsia region. A Russian drone attack overnight damaged critical infrastructure in Ukraine's Vinnytsia region, a local official said on Saturday. Ukrainian air force shot down 24 out of 29 Shahed-type drones launched across nine regions. Additionally, Russia fired two S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and two Kh-31 missiles. In Kherson, five drones were downed, but attacks hit critical infrastructure, an administrative building, and nine homes. In Mykolaiv, one downed drone caused a fire in outbuildings, with no casualties. Earlier this week, Ukraine repelled one of Russia's largest drone attacks since February 2022, shooting down all 89 drones, including many decoys. Reuters

Ukraine adds another Turkish corvette to its navy for the war with Russia. Ukraine has received its second Turkish-built navy corvette to bolster its naval forces amid the war with Russia, officials said Friday. The Ada-class corvette was launched in Turkey, attended by Ukraine’s first lady Olena Zelenska. The first corvette is currently undergoing sea trials. These ships, capable of striking planes, ships, and submarines, will enhance Ukraine's presence in the Black and Azov seas, and potentially the Mediterranean and Atlantic. Ukraine plans to equip the new corvette with weapons and train a crew of 100 men. This addition is part of a broader effort to rebuild Ukraine’s naval capability with international support. Associated Press

Crimean Bridge could be destroyed in coming months, Budanov says. Ukraine's Military Intelligence Chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said Friday that Ukraine is working on a "complex solution" to destroy the Kerch Bridge that connects Russia with Kremlin-occupied Crimea within the coming months. This bridge, a vital supply route for the Russian military, has previously been damaged by Ukrainian strikes in October 2022 and July 2023. Russia has since increased defenses around the bridge, including deploying more barges and a floating construction crane. While the bridge is not currently a primary military supply route, Security Service of Ukraine head, Vasyl Maliuk, suggested Russia might reuse it for military purposes once restored. Kyiv Independent

Drones hit warehouses, fuel tanks in Rostov Oblast, official says. A drone strike on August 3 damaged targets in Russia's Rostov and Oryol oblasts. Explosions and fires were reported in Rostov-on-Don, Bataysk, and Morozovsk, with fuel tanks igniting in Kamensky district. Rostov Governor Vasily Golubev confirmed damage to storage facilities. In Oryol, two drones hit a residential building. Ukrainian forces had previously targeted the Morozovsk airfield with drones. Kyiv Independent 

Ukraine accuses Russian forces of killing, dismembering prisoner-of-war. Ukraine's human rights commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, called for the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nations to investigate an image widely shared on Saturday allegedly showing a Ukrainian prisoner of war killed and dismembered by Russian forces. Ukraine's prosecutor general launched an investigation into the matter. Russia denies mistreating POWs. A UN commission report from March documented credible allegations of executions and systematic torture of Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces, potentially amounting to crimes against humanity. Reuters 

Kellyanne Conway registers as lobbyist for Ukrainian billionaire with past ties to Trump. Former Trump administration official Kellyanne Conway has registered as a foreign agent for Ukrainian billionaire Victor Pinchuk's foundation. Pinchuk, who donated $150,000 to Trump's charity in 2015, had his donation investigated by special counsel Robert Mueller. Conway's efforts will attempt to influence U.S. political leaders on Ukraine-related issues, organize meetings between U.S. leaders and Ukrainian soldiers, and raise awareness about Ukraine's fight for freedom. She aims to encourage attendance to Pinchuk’s Yalta European Strategy (YES) summit on September 13-14. Conway will be paid $50,000 monthly for her services from July 25 to November 14, 2024 as Pinchuk's foundation seeks to bolster ties between Ukraine and the West. ABC News Washington Examiner

Amid the bombs, Ukrainians rediscover the beach. Despite the ongoing war, Odessa's beaches are bustling with tourists. Ballistic missile threats, drones, and sea mines have not deterred holidaymakers, leading to sold-out trains and hotels, with prices reaching $1,000 a day for premium rooms. While mines are being cleared, dangers remain. Tourists often ignore air-raid alerts, preferring to enjoy the beaches. Local artist Valentin Zakharchenko captures this paradox in his paintings, while hotel entrepreneur Fazil Askerov notes increased tourism due to limited holiday options for Ukrainians. The city's resilience and contradictions reflect a unique wartime normalcy. Economist

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Sunday, August 4, 2024. Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes on fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on Sunday. Ukraine received its first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets, with President Volodymyr Zelensky thanking Denmark, the Netherlands, and the U.S. Russian milbloggers attempted to downplay the impact of F-16s, contradicting previous claims that Western weapon deliveries would cross an uncrossable "red line." Russian forces have made advances east of Pokrovsk, west of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. The Russian defense industry continues to produce missiles using Western-sourced components.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces recently made confirmed advances east of Pokrovsk, west of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.  Institute for the Study of War 

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Saturday, August 3, 2024.Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defense missile launchers, an S-500 air defense system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet's Rostov-on-Don submarine in occupied Crimea on Friday.Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on military targets in Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts on Saturday, hitting Morozovsk Airfield and various fuel storage facilities. The Kremlin planned but did not transfer missiles and military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen due to diplomatic pressure, reflecting Russia's growing military partnership with Iran and efforts to indirectly confront the West. Vladimir Putin's consideration of supporting the Houthis as they attack Israel and international shipping highlights deepening Russian Iranian military cooperation and Russia's reliance on Iran for precision weapons.

Battlefield updates: Russian forces advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, and Chasiv Yar. Institute for the Study of War 

AMERICAS

Austin revokes plea deal for 9/11 mastermind Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, two other plotters.  On Friday Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III revoked a plea agreement with accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Shaikh Mohammed and two alleged accomplices. The “responsibility for such a decision should rest with me,” Austin said in an order released Friday night.  Austin’s action effectively put the death penalty back on the table.  The plea deal had been reached by Susan Escallier, the convening authority for military commissions who runs the military courts at Guantanamo Bay.  Conservatives and some victims’ family members criticized it as too lenient.   New York Times CNN CBS-News  

Kamala Harris to announce vice president pick before battleground states tour. Vice President Kamala Harris will announce her running mate by Tuesday, following interviews with top contenders over the weekend. Her decision will precede a tour across battleground states. Harris interviewed Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, U.S. Senator Mark Kelly, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, among others. The selected candidate will join Harris on a tour starting in Philadelphia, covering seven cities in five days, with events aimed at various voter groups. Reuters 

Biden says he’s 'not giving up' extricating US teacher Marc Fogel, others unlawfully detained, from Russia.  Some 20 U.S. and dual U.S.-Russian citizens are still being detained in Russian jails and labor camps, including teachers, musicians and dual citizens.  They and their families are devastated that they were left behind. Among them: Marc Fogel, an American high-school teacher, convicted of smuggling roughly 17 grams of marijuana into Russia.  He said he used it for chronic pain.  President Joe Biden has promised to keep working on getting them out.  Reuters Wall Street Journal Politico EU  Associated Press  

Restoring nukes on some B-52s could come with $4.5 mln price tag, says U.S. Air Force.  According to an estimate by the U.S. Air Force, restoring nuclear weapon capabilities to about 30 B-52 bombers would cost approximately $4.5 million. This follows congressional proposals to bolster the U.S. nuclear arsenal, as the New START arms control treaty with Russia, which limited both countries’ nuclear arms capabilities, is set to expire in 2026. The House and Senate armed services committees have included this recommendation in their fiscal 2025 defense policy bills. The B-52 bombers, originally equipped to carry nuclear weapons, were converted to conventional-only aircraft about 10 years ago to comply with New START. With the treaty's expiration nearing, proponents argue that Washington must prepare for a future without these restrictions, anticipating that serious negotiations with Russia are unlikely. Brian Knight, deputy senior materiel leader in the Air Force’s B-52 program, confirmed the service's readiness to begin conversions immediately after the treaty limits lift in 2026, with completion expected by 2029. Critics caution that planning to increase the American nuclear stockpile now could hinder treaty negotiations in the future. Defense News

U.S. Army transitions long-range tiltrotor aircraft to next development phase. The U.S. Army's Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) program is transitioning from tech development to the critical engineering and manufacturing development phase, a move announced on Friday. This program, valued at approximately $70 billion over its lifespan including foreign military sales, aims to replace around 2,000 Black Hawk utility helicopters by around 2030. Textron Bell's FLRAA design, which underwent successful reviews earlier this year, will enter this new phase following the Army Systems Acquisition Review Council's approval. The aircraft is expected to travel approximately 2,440 nautical miles without refueling. The initial unit will be equipped by fiscal 2031, with a limited user test scheduled for FY27 to FY28. The contract includes nine options, the first of which will see Bell deliver detailed designs and six prototypes by 2026, with low-rate initial production beginning in 2028. The FLRAA program emphasizes digital engineering to accelerate development and design processes. Defense News

Maduro vows to crush opposition as loss becomes more apparent, and arrests continue.  Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has vowed to “pulverize” the latest challenge to his rule following the nation’s disputed election on July 28. Maduro, who claims victory over opposition candidate Edmundo González, said he has arrested over 2,000 people and plans to detain more. Human rights groups report at least 22 deaths since the vote. During a military ceremony in Caracas on Sunday, he rejected criticism, asserting his control and accusing the opposition of attempting a coup. He emphasized his commitment to protecting his "revolution" and ordered a total military deployment to maintain order. Maduro's hardline stance has alarmed opponents, but they continue to protest, led by opposition leader María Corina Machado. González, who claims a decisive election victory, has called for an impartial verification of the results, and Machado came out of hiding on Saturday to speak at a rally, vowing perseverance after “six days of brutal repression.” Meanwhile, the Washington Post conducted a review of more than 23,000 precinct-level tally sheets gathered by the opposition, showing that González most likely won the election with twice as many votes as Maduro. The result of the sample, which represented almost 80% of voting machines in Venezuela, mirrored the conclusion of independent exit polling and other independent analyses, such as the Associated Press, presenting yet more proof against Maduro’s authoritarian, socialist rule. Both the E.U. and Canada recently condemned the government’s crackdown on dissent, and called for the release of political prisoners, citing evidence González won the election. The U.S. on Sunday expressed concerns that further detentions could fuel instability and unrest. Washington Post The Guardian Associated Press

EUROPE

Germans wrestle with moral dilemma, blowback after freeing convicted murderer in recent prisoner exchange. Germany is reeling with disquiet following a recent prisoner exchange between the West and Moscow. The family of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, a Georgian citizen murdered by a Russian hitman in Berlin, have expressed disappointment at the release of the killer, Vadim Krasikov. Krasikov was freed as part of an exchange to secure the release of 16 political prisoners held in Russia and Belarus, including U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich, former-Marine Paul Whelan, and opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza. Khangoshvili, an ethnic Chechen, was shot and killed in 2019. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Justice Minister Marco Buschmann defended the difficult decision as necessary to save lives, with Scholz reassuring the public that “nobody took lightly this decision to deport a murderer.” Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock acknowledged that the situation “rightly leads to much, much need for conversation.” The release, which required complex legal maneuvers, has raised concerns about the potential for further arrests by Moscow. Critics warn that the exchange sets a dangerous precedent and raises the risk that any person could be used as a “bargaining chip” by Russian President Vladimir Putin. ReutersPolitico EU

OPINION—The 3 main reasons why Putin agreed to prisoner swap. In an opinion piece published in The Hill, Professor Alexander J. Motyl details the top three reasons why Russian President Vladimir Putin likely agreed to the historic prisoner exchange between the West and East. Known for ruthlessly eliminating opponents, Motyl argues that Putin is unlikely motivated by humanitarian concerns or sentimentality for the freed Russian spies, including assassin Vadim Krasikov. Instead, three strategic reasons stand out. First, Putin again asserted his power, demonstrating that he can arbitrarily arrest, detain, and release individuals, reinforcing his dominance both domestically and to Western observers who might naively believe peace with Ukraine is possible without conceding to his terms. Second, the exchange sets a precedent that arresting Westerners on false charges yields concrete results, encouraging future detentions to extract concessions from the West. This tactic could target not only prominent figures but also ordinary citizens like tourists and students. Third, expelling democratic activists like Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin prevents them from becoming martyrs, which could galvanize opposition within Russia. Their deaths in prison would have sparked significant unrest, similar to the public reaction to Alexei Navalny's death. Ultimately, Motyl asserts, while the prisoner swap may seem like a victory, it likely strengthens Putin's negotiating position and discourages Western proponents of peace negotiations from underestimating his strategic acumen. The Hill

Kremlin divulges prison swap details, says children of freed sleeper agents didn’t even know they were Russian. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday that a Russian couple, who were Kremlin spies, were so deeply undercover that their children only learned of their Russian identity after boarding a flight to Moscow as part of the largest East-West prisoner exchange since the Cold War. Peskov noted that the two children, 11-year-old Sofia and 8-year-old Gabriel, did not speak Russian and were welcomed by President Vladimir Putin in Spanish upon arrival. They did not recognize the Russian leader, and asked their parents who was greeting them. Putin first embraced Vadim Krasikov, the former FSB agent and convicted murderer released from imprisonment in Germany, highlighting his significance to Moscow. The swap also included the Dultsevs, sleeper agents posing as Argentinians in Slovenia, who were reunited with their children after being freed from jail. They were arrested in 2022. Despite releasing more prisoners than it received, Russian authorities portrayed the swap as a victory, which was positively received by the public. Peskov said that the negotiations were conducted by the FSB and the CIA and added that efforts continue to free other Russians held abroad. Reuters BBC 

German Foreign Minister says U.S. missiles in Germany are a 'credible deterrent.' Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, has underscored the importance of an agreement with the U.S. to station long-range American missiles in Germany, in light of Russia’s ongoing threat to the security of Europe. In an opinion piece for Bild am Sonntag, Baerbock defended Berlin’s decision, stressing that Germany must invest in its own security through the EU, NATO, and national efforts, including the deployment of U.S. weapons systems. She highlighted the need for a credible deterrent to protect Germany and its neighbors like Poland, the Baltic states, and Finland from Russian aggression. Baerbock also accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of escalating in response to peace initiatives and seeking Ukraine's submission. The deal between Washington and Berlin will see the U.S. deploy long-range cruise missiles, including SM-6, Tomahawk, and developmental hypersonic weapons, to Germany by 2026. Deutsche Welle Ukrainska Pravda 

Slovakia, Hungary dismiss E.U. idea to replace lost Russian oil via Croatian pipeline.  Slovakia and Hungary have rejected the European Commission's suggestion to replace lost Russian oil supplies via Croatia's JANAF pipeline, citing high costs. Supplies from Russia’s Lukoil through Ukraine’s Druzhba pipeline were paused in July after Kyiv banned its use by Lukoil. Hungary and Slovakia, concerned about their oil security, requested EU mediation but dismissed the Croatian alternative on Friday due to reliability and cost concerns. Slovakia has called for reinstating Russian flows through Ukraine or finding other solutions. Despite the E.U. 's ban on Russian oil post-2022 invasion, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic received exemptions to find alternatives. Reuters Interfax 

How Putin turned Belarus into Russia’s vassal state. Since 2020, Alexander Lukashenko has increasingly aligned Belarus with Russia, relying on Vladimir Putin's support to suppress a popular uprising. Belarus has effectively become a Russian vassal state, mimicking Russia’s laws and hosting Russian soldiers and nuclear weapons. Belarus also acts as a loyal ally, voting as directed in international organizations and hosting diplomatic events. Analysts describe this as a "silent invasion" and a "de facto occupation." Despite Belarus's servility, Lukashenko has resisted sending Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine, aware of the war's unpopularity at home. Overall, Belarus's sovereignty is rapidly diminishing under Russian influence. The Telegraph

THE MIDDLE EAST

White House says extra deployments in Middle East are defensive, with deterrence as the goal. A U.S. official said Sunday that Washington has increased its military presence in the Middle East to de-escalate regional tensions following recent incendiary incidents, including the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, in Tehran. This event, along with the killing of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, has heightened fears of a broader Middle East conflict, and the U.S. is bracing for it. On Friday, the Pentagon announced the deployment of additional fighter jets and Navy warships to the region. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered that Navy cruisers and destroyers, which can intercept and shoot down ballistic missiles, be sent. He also approved sending the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier strike group to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Middle East, once the latter finishes its deployment. A White House official stated that the goal of these moves is to prevent regional conflict and defend against potential attacks, to “turn the temperature down.” U.S. President Joe Biden said he hopes Iran will refrain from escalating tensions, despite its threats to retaliate for the killing of Haniyeh. The U.S., along with international partners, continues diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation. Reuters Al Jazeera France 24 Reuters The Guardian

Yemen’s Houthis strike container ship in attack that marks first attack in 2 weeks. Yemen's Houthi rebels launched a ballistic missile attack on a Liberian-flagged container ship, the Groton, in the Gulf of Aden on Saturday, marking the first attack by the Iran-backed group in two weeks. On July 20th, Israel conducted an air strike on Hodeidah, a Red Sea port city.

According to the Joint Maritime Information Center, the attack caused minor damage to the Jeddah-bound ship, and the crew was safe. A Houthi military spokesman claimed responsibility for the assault on Sunday. The Houthis have targeted over 70 vessels with missiles and drones since November, claiming to target ships linked to Israel, the U.S., or Britain, though many attacked ships have no connection to the conflict. This weekend’s missile assault follows the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, raising concerns of regional escalation.  Associated Press South China Morning Post Al Jazeera 

ASIA & OCEANIA

China is bypassing U.S. AI bans using front companies, smuggling.  The New York Times is out with a piece detailing how China, faced with U.S. restrictions on coveted microchips with the capability to create AI, has been circumventing Washington’s attempts to control this sector amid an intensifying military struggle for dominance. The U.S. has implemented significant restrictions since October 2022 to prevent Beijing from acquiring AI chips, fearing they could enhance China's military capabilities. Despite these restrictions, an underground market has emerged, with businesses and smugglers finding strategies, such as global networks and business maneuvers, to bypass the export bans. In Shenzhen, a city in China’s south, market vendors sell highly sought-after AI microchips, and there is a vibrant trade in chips in Shenzhen and other cities. In one instance, Chinese executives founded a new company to skirt bans, and the business is now reportedly a partner of Nvidia, Intel and Microsoft and one of the Asian giant’s biggest makers of A.I. servers. Smugglers likely divert chips from Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, and other nations into China. One source, an employee of a Chinese logistics company, sent banned A100 chips from Hong Kong to mainland China by advising clients to label the chips as tea or toys. Documents show that more than a dozen state-affiliated organizations have bought restricted chips in spite of regulations, which have cost U.S. companies billions of dollars in sales. Nvidia and other American companies claim compliance with export controls but acknowledge challenges in monitoring the entire supply chain. New York Times

New Chinese ambassador to Germany will deal with heightened tensions, relations strained by espionage accusations. China has selected 59-year-old Deng Hongbo, an experienced diplomat with extensive experience in U.S. and global affairs, to be its next ambassador to Germany, succeeding the outgoing diplomat Wu Ken. This move comes amid flaring tensions between the two countries, highlighted by Germany's recent accusation that China orchestrated a 2021 cyber-espionage attack, which Beijing has denied. Berlin's arrest of four German nationals accused of spying for Beijing, and China's subsequent summoning of the German ambassador in response, created further strain. Deng, currently deputy director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, will have to navigate these turbulent ties. China's ambassador to Germany holds a vice-ministerial rank, reflecting the importance of this position. Wu Ken, the departing ambassador, acknowledged the challenges faced during his tenure, including the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. He noted, however, that China-Germany relations have remained a stabilizing factor in China-EU relations, with strong strategic guidance and cooperation. South China Morning Post 

North Korean leader Kim observes transfer of tactical ballistic missile launchers. North Korean state media on Monday reported that leader Kim Jong Un monitored the delivery of 250 new tactical ballistic missile launchers to soldiers near the heavily fortified South Korean border. The launchers have been described as modern tactical weapons personally designed by Kim. A spokesperson for the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said he believes that the weapons, whose location near the border suggests a short range, are intended to threaten Seoul. Just last month, North Korea said it tested a new tactical ballistic missile. In an address to soldiers and military scientists, Kim accused the U.S. of creating a "nuclear-based military block," prompting Pyongyang to bolster its military capabilities. Kim stated that North Korea would enhance its nuclear readiness to deter threats and protect itself. His daughter, Kim Ju Ae, attended the event, marking her first public appearance in nearly three months amid speculation she is being groomed to succeed her father. Reuters Al Jazeera Barron's South China Morning Post  

From 'possible' to 'probable:’ Australia raises terror threat level amid national surge in extremist views.  Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday upgraded the nation’s terror threat level from "possible" to "probable," indicating an over 50% chance of a planned onshore attack within the next year. Albanese announced the change following security advice, stressing there was no imminent threat but noting that more Australians are adopting a diverse range of extreme ideologies, necessitating increased vigilance. The threat level had been lowered to "possible" in 2022 after eight years at "probable." Mike Burgess, head of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, attributed the change partly to tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which he said has heightened grievances and intolerance, undermining social cohesion. Australia has experienced several extremist-motivated violent attacks recently. In April, police deemed a knife attack on an Assyrian church bishop in Sydney a terrorist act driven by suspected religious extremism. Reuters Wall Street Journal The Guardian Euronews

Myanmar junta confirms failure, loses communications with senior officers as rebels seize major base. Myanmar’s ruling military junta has acknowledged a significant battlefield defeat, admitting that it does not have communication with senior officers at a major military base close to the Chinese border. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) rebel group claimed control of the base in Lashio and posted photos of their troops there on Saturday. On Monday, a military spokesperson confirmed the loss of contact and mentioned that top officials were believed to have been arrested. This defeat marks the first time a regional military command has fallen to insurgents, underscoring the junta's growing challenges, three years after overthrowing a civilian government. The MNDAA's victory in Lashio highlights the junta's weakening grip, following previous losses in the state of Shan near the Chinese border. Three other ethnic armies, fighting along the Thai and Indian borders, congratulated the MNDAA and vowed to continue their struggle against the military. Reuters 

AFRICA

Al Qaeda affiliate group in Niger claims it has abducted two Russians in Niger.  An al Qaeda affiliate, Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), published a video on Friday claiming it has taken two Russian citizens hostage in Niger. In the footage, the captives, identified as Yuri and Greg, say they were working for a Russian company in southwest Niger when they were captured. The exact timing of the abduction is unclear, but it likely occurred about a week ago while they were visiting gold mines in the resource-rich Tillaberi region, which is known for Islamist militant activity. The Russian foreign ministry had not yet responded to requests for a comment. The video does not include a ransom demand. Niger’s ruling junta, which carried out a coup last year, has expelled Western forces, strengthening ties with Russia. Reuters Barron's 

U.S. to depart final Niger base as withdrawal deadline approaches. Two U.S. defense officials have said that American forces are set to leave their military base in Niger, Air Base 201, on Monday, marking nearly the end of a prolonged withdrawal from the Western Sahel nation. This departure follows the closure of Air Base 101 in Niamey in July. The withdrawal stems from Niger's decision to terminate its counterterrorism agreement with Washington, a move announced in March. Despite efforts to salvage the relationship, the U.S. agreed to withdraw by September 15. This exit is costly for the U.S., which spent over $100 million building Air Base 201 just five years ago. The base and the 1,000 American troops stationed in Niger were crucial for counterterrorism efforts in the region, but the partnership began to deteriorate after the White House labeled Niger's military takeover last summer a "coup.” Despite the withdrawal, Washington aims to maintain a positive relationship with Niger, leaving some equipment behind and continuing to discuss future partnerships. Nigerien forces still use American-provided equipment for counterterrorism operations. However, the U.S. acknowledges that its ability to monitor threats has been significantly degraded by the loss of overflight permissions in the Sahel. Defense News

32 killed, over 60 injured in brutal terrorist attack in Somalia. A terrorist attack on Friday left at least 32 people dead and more than 60 injured after a suicide bomber detonated explosives in front of a hotel in a crowded beachfront neighborhood of Mogadishu. Gunmen then stormed the building, leading to a four-hour siege, according to Somali police. The Islamist militant group Al Shabab claimed responsibility for the attack on the area, called Lido Beach, which is frequented by businesspeople, officials, and residents. A witness described the chaos of the scene, noting that he saw many people wounded on the beach, but was unable to help due to ongoing gunfire. A police spokesman confirmed that officers ended the siege when they killed the three attackers who had entered the hotel and taken its occupants hostage. The attack highlights Al Shabab's persistent threat despite years of efforts by the Somali government, the U.S., and the African Union to combat the group. President Mohamud reiterated the government's commitment to eradicating Al Shabab. The Lido area has experienced several previous attacks, including a six-hour siege in 2023 that killed six civilians and a car bomb blast last month that killed five. In March, insurgents killed three people and wounded 27 in an attack on a different Mogadishu hotel. New York Times

CYBER & TECH

Nvidia delays delivery plans for China-market chip as new U.S. export ban looms.  With the possibility of a new round of U.S. chip export controls looming, Nvidia has not set delivery schedules for its latest chip designed for the Chinese market.  A variant of Nvidia’s powerful Blackwell GPU series, the B20 has scaled-back computing capabilities although it reportedly boasts improved interconnection bandwidth to allow packaging of multiple cards to compensate for less power than a single GPU.  U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has warned chip companies that downgraded chips could still be subject to U.S. export bans “the very next day.”  Prior Nvidia chips for the Chinese market have met with mixed results although sales of the H20 GPU are expected to exceed 1 million this year, worth approximately $12 billion.  Nvidia has confronted increasing domestic competition from Chinese chip makers, such as Huawei, who have benefited from Beijing government support in a quest to promote technological self-reliance.  South China Morning Post

Former U.N. weapons inspector raising alarm over AI-aided bioweapons creation.  Former U.N. weapons inspector Rocco Casagrande has been making the rounds in Washington, including at the White House and the Pentagon, to inform officials of the risks AI poses in developing dangerous biological weapons.  Casagrande reportedly spoke at these meetings about the rapid improvement in AI applications that potentially could enable terrorists and others to “identify potent biological agents and secure the materials needed to make them.”  The message Casagrande brought was that AI could move bioweapons creation from remote research facilities into basement laboratories.  AI innovators like Anthropic have contacted Casagrande to determine the “supervillain potential” of its Claude chatbot.  Claude is adept at generating human-like responses to queries, and Anthropic had a particular concern that it might be able to aid users to manipulate biology for malicious purposes.  An Anthropic team subjected Claude to hours of questioning about pathogens and laboratory experiments, discovering that the chatbot produced skilled answers about ways biological agents could be delivered aboard a missile.  Claude’s responses were far from perfect since its output is only as precise as the underlying data.  However, the team discovered that when the chatbot spewed out nonsense, after repeated questioning it managed an accurate response.  Claude’s skills in the testing sessions contributed to Casagrande’s concerns about the ease with which AI could contribute to the making of a biological weapon.  “Even if you had the perfect instructions to make a nuclear bomb,” he said, “it would still cost tens of millions — if not hundreds of millions — of dollars to follow those instructions.  Unfortunately, that's not so with bio.”  Bloomberg

Senate appropriations panel recommends ‘full funding’ of 2025 Replicator initiative.  “Full funding” for the Pentagon’s Replicator drone initiative was included in an FY2025 defense spending bill approved by the Senate Appropriations Committee (SAC) last week.  Building on the FY2024 allocation of $500 million for Replicator, the Pentagon requested an additional $500 million for the following fiscal year.   DoD leadership is expected to decide on the focus of the FY2025 second tranche of Replicator funding, which could provide additional platforms to those selected for FY2024 as well as command and control, AI, and other software enhancements.  In approving the defense bill, the SAC said in its report that it “recommends full funding for Replicator funds.”  A possible reallocation of additional funds from the lagging Rapid Defense Experimentation Reserve (RDER) was raised by the committee for the possible acceleration of Replicator tranche two programs.  While supporting Replicator initiatives, the committee raised concerns about the absence of “robust test and evaluation master plans [TEMP] or similar test and evaluation [T&E] plans to ensure that concepts as envisioned are technically capable of meeting stated objectives.”  The committee indicated that the Pentagon would need to brief lawmakers on the evaluation and test plans for each system selected for Replicator.  DefenseScoop

GAO calls for ‘urgent’ EPA actions to bolster water sector cybersecurity defenses.  The Government Accountability Office (GAO) last week called on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to reinforce its cybersecurity protections and strategies for water and wastewater facilities.   The GAO report said the water sector, in particular, lacks a “cybersecurity culture” that extends to the lack of basic cyber hygiene.  The GAO faulted EPA for failing to perform a sector-wide risk assessment and failing to employ a “risk-informed strategy” as the risk management agency for the water sector.  According to the GAO, “a sector-wide risk assessment could help EPA identify the highest risks that its programs should address and prioritize actions to address those risks.”  The GAO report also noted that no external peer review has been conducted of the EPA’s tool to assist drinking water systems in their evaluations of vulnerabilities and recovery from cyberattacks.  In response, the EPA concurred with the GAO recommendations with plans to complete the risk assessment by January 2025.   A peer review of the risk tool will begin in November.   CyberScoop   SCMagazine   InfoSecurity Magazine

China-based cyberespionage group spread malware through compromised ISP.  A malware infection operation by the China-based Evasive Panda gang was carried out through the compromise of an unidentified internet service provider.  Evasive Panda, also known as StormBamboo, has targeted organizations across mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao, Nigeria, and throughout Southeast and East Asia.  Volexity researchers said the hacking operation used “adversary in the middle” tactics to infect Mac and Windows systems with malware by intervening between a trusted server and a target device.  Volexity’s analysis revealed that Evasive Panda poisoned DNS requests at the target ISP.   According to Volexity, the ISP examined various key devices on their network, and after rebooting, “the DNS poisoning immediately stopped.”  Evasive Panda used the compromise to deliver information-stealing malware.  Evasive Panda had used MgBot malware for more than a decade, including against China’s Tibetan population earlier in 2024.  Analysts described Evasive Panda as “a highly skilled and aggressive threat actor” that commits “significant effort” to its operations.  The Record   BleepingComputer

UK study shows major inconsistencies, flaws in AI model testing.  A British AI research nonprofit, the Ada Lovelace Institute (ALI), has analyzed existing AI tests and benchmarks and found them wanting.  In a study that included interviews with academic experts as well as audited research into AI safety evaluation, the analysts found that current evaluations offer some benefits, but are “non-exhaustive, can be gamed easily, and don’t necessarily give an indication of how models will behave in real-world scenarios.”  Senior ALI researcher Elliot Jones explained that the team’s goal was “to examine the limitations of current approaches to AI safety evaluation, assess how evaluations are currently being used, and explore their use as a tool for policymakers and regulators.”  The study said the AI industry disagrees on the best set of methods and taxonomy for evaluating models.  Some evaluations only tested models in lab conditions, not how they might perform in real-world use.  Others employed tests developed for research rather than production even though the models were subsequently used in production.  An ALI co-author of the study, Mahi Hardalupas, noted that small changes in which version of a model is being evaluated “can cause unpredictable changes in behavior and may override built-in safety features.”  Red-teaming evaluations, according to the ALI study, may also come up short as there are few established standards for red team operations.  TechCrunch

Chinese researchers identify spectral line caused by the biggest explosion since the Big Bang. A recent study from a team of researchers led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) suggests that a colossal cosmic explosion, the Brightest Of All Time (BOAT), caused matter and antimatter to collide at nearly the speed of light, annihilating each other and releasing energy into the universe. The team analyzed data from Chinese and American space telescopes and identified a spectral line with energy peaking at 37 million electron volts (MeV) during the gamma-ray burst, indicating the annihilation of high-energy particles such as electrons and positrons. This discovery, reported in Science China: Physics, Mechanics & Astronomy, is significant for understanding gamma-ray bursts' physical properties and production mechanisms. The 37 MeV energy level is the highest ever detected from any gamma-ray burst. It indicates that the burst ejecta were moving at least 99.98% of the speed of light. The BOAT was caused by a massive star's death over two billion years ago, leading to a black hole formation and the release of jets into space. South China Morning Post 

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Brad Christian, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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