Report for Friday, October 4, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

Friday, October 4, 2024

Israel launches major strikes on Beirut as Lebanon campaign escalates

New NATO boss backs Ukraine’s plea for deep strikes into Russia

Zelensky on exit from Vuhledar: Lives worth more than any buildings

U.S. to dedicate $1.2 billion to restock weapons following Middle East attacks

Japan PM warns 'today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia'

U.S., Microsoft dismantle websites used by hackers linked to Russian intelligence

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

How Putin Uses 'Nuclear Coercion' Against Ukraine — and the West  The Cipher Brief

One Year Later, Lessons from Israel's Ocobter 7 Intelligence Failures  The Cipher Brief

Lebanon has a chance to return power to its people. Will it take it? The Cipher Brief

Iranian Cyber Operations Raise Fears of Attacks on Military Personnel  The Cipher Brief

Accelerating National Security Outcomes in the Gray Zone  The Cipher Brief

THE MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Israeli airstrike on West Bank refugee camp kills 18, including Hamas commander.  Israeli warplanes killed at least 18 Palestinians in an airstrike on the Tul Karm refugee camp in the West Bank, the Palestinian health ministry said on Thursday. The Israeli military said in a post on Telegram that the strike killed Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi, head of Hamas' network in the camp, and several other Hamas operatives. The Israeli military said Oufi was behind an attempted terror attack in the West Bank in September, and was planning more attacks and running guns across the region. The Palestinian Health Ministry said the strikes in Tul Karm hit a building with a crowded café, trapping many people under the ruins. The Palestinian government issued a statement calling for "urgent international action to stop the escalating massacres" against its people.  Haaretz iDF/Telegram 

Biden’s brief remark sends oil price briefly soaring.    Oil prices jumped more than four percent Thursday on speculation fueled by President Joe Biden’s remark that the U.S. and Israel were discussing strikes on Iran’s oil industry as retaliation for Tuesday’s missile attack on Israel.  Asked whether the US would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, Biden said: “We’re in discussion of that,” then added, “I think that would be a little. . . anyway.”  That was enough to send oil prices spiking to their highest level in more than a month, to $77.62 a barrel for crude oil.  Traders are nervous that a full-on regional war is being ignited and oil supplies will be cut.  But on Friday, oil prices started to level off, with Brent crude futures dropping to $77.54 a barrel as of 0415 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures down to $73.65 a barrel.  Reuters reported that analysts were starting to conclude that Israel was unlikely to mount a direct attack on Iran's oil fields because it would alienate international partners and could cause Iran to overreact. Asked Thursday if regional war was inevitable, Biden said, "How confident are you it's not going to rain? Look, I don't believe there is going to be an all-out war. I think we can avoid it.”  Reuters Financial Times  New York Times Reuters 

Israel launches major strikes on Beirut as Lebanon campaign escalates.Israel stepped up the pace of its military offensive in Lebanon Thursday, with strikes targeting Hezbollah leaders, including Hashem Safieddine, a cousin and presumed successor of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, assassinated in a bombing campaign last week. The New York Times reported that the Israeli warplanes hit Dahiya, Beirut’s southern suburbs, where Hezbollah enjoys strong support, after receiving information that Safieddine and other leaders they were meeting in a bunker in the suburbs. Israeli forces ordered several dozen villages in the south to evacuate. Lebanese authorities said 1.2 million people have been displaced from the war.  The Lebanese Armed Forces, which is backed by the United States, said Israeli attacks killed two soldiers.  One of them was helping the Lebanese Red Cross evacuate villagers. Israeli troops and tanks battled Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon. Nine Israeli soldiers have been killed in the fighting so far, the Israel Defense Forces said. New York Times Washington Post   Associated Press   Haaretz  Reuters Jerusalem Post

 UN Security Council backs Guterres after Israel declares him persona no grata.   The U.N. Security Council backed Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday after Israel's foreign minister said he was barring him from entering the country.  The 15-member council issued a statement saying that “any decision not to engage with the U.N. Secretary-General or the United Nations is counterproductive, especially in the context of escalating tensions in the Middle East.”   Reuters

Women soldiers who predicted Oct. 7 say they are being silenced.  Members of a female army unit of field observers near Gaza were among the first to raise alarms about Hamas’s preparations for the Oct. 7 attack.  Several were killed and kidnapped. The observers, most between 18 and 20 years old,  identify and report drones, mortar rounds, rockets and antitank missiles.  These young women say Israel is not doing enough to deal with threats across the border from Gaza. Washington Post

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

New NATO boss backs Ukraine’s plea for deep strikes into Russia.NATO's new Secretary-General Mark Rutte, during his first visit to Kyiv after assuming office, on Thursday endorsed Ukraine's right to strike military targets deep inside Russia. Standing alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Rutte emphasized that Ukraine's right to self-defense "does not end at the border," advocating for the use of advanced weapons to target Russian military assets preemptively. This stance puts pressure on hesitant Western nations like the U.S. and Germany, which fear escalation with Russia. Rutte's support comes ahead of a crucial summit on Oct. 12, led by U.S. President Joe Biden, where Ukraine-supporting leaders will convene. Zelensky criticized unnamed NATO countries for delaying support and called on Western nations to provide weaponry and permissions to counter Russian aggression, including assistance in shooting down drones and missiles. He compared Ukraine's situation to Israel's defense against similar threats, urging immediate international support. Rutte also said he will work to boost NATO’s weapon production. "Supporting Ukraine and replenishing our own stocks means increasing industrial production, and that will be a priority for me,” he said. Rutte visited Ukraine as Dutch prime minister, including Odesa and Kharkiv. PoliticoEU Reuters Deutsche Welle Associated Press Euronews Ukrainska Pravda Voice of America Kyiv independent

Zelensky on exit from Vuhledar: Lives worth more than any buildings. President Volodymyr Zelensky defended the Ukrainian Armed Forces' withdrawal from Vuhledar, emphasizing that protecting soldiers' lives is a priority over defending buildings. During a Thursday press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Zelensky stressed that without adequate weaponry, stopping Russian advances is impossible, and retreating to save personnel is the right decision. Zelensky also noted delays in weapon deliveries and stronger backing from allies to pressure Russia into genuine diplomacy. Ukrainska Pravda

Ukraine's top commander orders defenses bolstered in east after Vuhledar falls. Following the fall of Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s top commander, on Thursday ordered bolstered defenses in the area. Ukrainian forces withdrew from the town to preserve lives and avoid encirclement by Russian troops. Despite Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Russia’s Kursk region in August, Russian forces continue advancing in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub. Syrskyi is focused on reinforcing the defenses of the 25th Sicheslav Airborne Brigade in one of the hottest sectors while heavy fighting persists in the Pokrovsk and Kurakove areas. Reuters Ukrainska Pravda

Estonian intelligence chief: Freezing the war will not end it, Ukraine must prevail.Kaupo Rosin, director of Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, stressed that even if the conflict in Ukraine freezes, the war won’t be over, and Ukraine’s victory is crucial for lasting peace. In an interview with DW’s Tim Sebastian, Rosin disagreed with the idea of advocating for a quick diplomatic resolution or compromise with Russia. He argued that Russia must be strategically defeated, as even partial success for Putin would lead to continued aggression. Rosin emphasized that Ukraine needs more weapons and ammunition, and long-term peace depends on ensuring Ukraine's ultimate victory in the war of attrition. Ukrainska Pravda

Putin Escalates War as Ukraine’s Western Allies Waver. As Vladimir Putin intensifies his war efforts, Ukraine's Western allies remain divided on whether to allow long-range strikes into Russia. Despite sanctions, Russia continues to acquire Western components for missiles, while Putin increases defense spending, focusing 40% of next year’s budget on the military. Russian forces recently captured Vuhledar, and Putin passed a law offering criminal suspects amnesty if they join the army. As Ukraine pushes for more military aid, some allies face funding challenges, and the upcoming U.S. election could affect future support, especially with Donald Trump expressing ambivalence about assistance. Bloomberg

Ukraine reveals death toll of prisoners in Russian captivity. Ukraine's Defense Ministry reported that at least 177 Ukrainian prisoners have died in Russian captivity since the full-scale invasion. Thousands more remain at great risk, with the actual death toll likely higher due to a lack of international oversight and Russia's refusal to confirm prisoners' whereabouts. Torture and abuse of Ukrainian POWs are widespread, with reports of beatings, starvation, and mock executions. While 3,600 prisoners have been returned in swaps, many families remain in the dark about their loved ones’ fates. PoliticoEU

Russia strikes Chernihiv Oblast, killing 3, injuring 4. Russian forces on Thursday struck the Koriukivka district in Chernihiv Oblast, killing three people, including a 6-year-old child, and injuring four others, including two children. The attack hit a car carrying liquefied gas, causing an explosion that spread to nearby residential buildings. The injured children, aged 4 and 13, are in serious condition and receiving medical care. Kyiv Independent Reuters

Russian attacks on Sumy Oblast injure 8. Russian forces on Thursday attacked 14 communities in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy Oblast, injuring eight people. The region, which borders Russia, was struck 82 times using mortars, artillery, drones, and other weapons. These attacks intensified following Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine says Russia attacked its critical infrastructure with 19 drones, 1 killed. Russian drone attacks on Ukraine overnight killed one person and injured five others, Ukraine said Friday. In the southern Kherson region, Russian strikes targeted utility facilities and homes, resulting in one death and four injuries. In Kirovohrad, a business building was damaged, lightly injuring an employee. Ukrainian air defenses downed nine of the 19 drones, while seven were likely jammed electronically. Kyiv saw minor damage to an apartment building. Reuters Reuters

Huge Russian fuel depot blaze put out, drones strike near Ukraine border. Firefighters extinguished a large blaze at a fuel depot in Russia's Perm region on Friday, while drone strikes near the Ukrainian border triggered a small fire at a fuel depot in Voronezh. Russia's Defense Ministry reported intercepting 18 Ukrainian drones overnight across multiple regions. No casualties were reported, and the cause of the Perm fire is still under investigation. Voronezh officials confirmed that air defenses downed several drones. Ukrainian forces have targeted Russia's oil industry, which supports its war efforts. Reuters

Ukraine denies Russian claims about attempted attack on Kursk nuclear plant. Russia claimed it intercepted a Ukrainian drone Thursday near the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant in Kurchatov, causing explosions in a nearby building but no damage to the plant itself. Ukrainian officials, including the National Security and Defense Council, denied any attempted attack, calling the reports disinformation. Russian Telegram channels alleged that multiple missiles and a drone were involved, all intercepted. Despite these claims, the plant's operator confirmed normal operations and radiation levels, while Ukraine refuted the accusations. Kyiv Independent Reuters

If war ends, I’ll restore relations with Russia, Slovakia’s Fico says. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico expressed his intent Thursday to restore relations with Russia if the war in Ukraine ends during his term, stating Slovakia has a strong interest in maintaining Russian oil and gas transit through Ukraine. Fico criticized alternative supply routes as too costly and revealed pressure from the European Commission to stop purchasing from Moscow. Ahead of a joint meeting with Ukraine, Fico emphasized Slovakia’s need to continue using Ukrainian transit routes. Ukraine, however, has signaled its unwillingness to renew the gas transit deal with Russia, creating potential challenges for Slovakia’s energy supply. PoliticoEU Reuters

Ukraine’s Dragon Drones Are Burning Russian Tanks Now. In early September 2024, Ukrainian forces began using "dragon drones" equipped with thermite, a 5,000-degree Fahrenheit incendiary, to target bunkers and armored vehicles. On Oct. 3, Ukraine’s 30th Mechanized Brigade successfully deployed a dragon drone to destroy a Russian tank immobilized by an earlier strike near Minkivka. This marks one of the first documented cases of these drones being used against armored vehicles. While the thermite spray is inaccurate, Ukrainian drone operators are rapidly improving their skills, potentially increasing the effectiveness of these drones in future anti-tank operations. Forbes

Ukraine claims strike on Russia’s Borisoglebsk air base. Ukrainian drones struck the Borisoglebsk airfield in Russia's Voronezh region, targeting warehouses storing KAB precision-guided aerial bombs, Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets, and aviation fuel, media reported Thursday Satellite imagery confirmed several fires at the site, and Russian media reported 25 drones intercepted. Ukrainian sources emphasized the goal of disrupting Russian bombing campaigns against Ukraine. Russian officials claimed the attack injured one person and damaged 16 homes from debris. Moscow Times Newsweek Militarnyi

Romanian Patriot battery is already in Ukraine.  Romania has provided Ukraine with a Patriot air defense system, which has now arrived in the country, confirmed by Romanian Defense Ministry spokesperson Constantin Spînu on Thursday. This system is part of Romania's commitment made last month, and it includes the advanced Patriot PAC-3+ version, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Ukraine now has seven air defense systems pledged by NATO allies, though some deliveries have been delayed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude to Romania, emphasizing the system’s role in countering Russian missile and drone attacks. Militarnyi Ukrainska Pravda

The Russian Air Force Is 'Dropping Like Flies' in the Ukraine War. Russia’s air campaign in Ukraine has faced significant challenges, including high pilot attrition, equipment strain, and a reliance on older aircraft. However, Russia has adapted by utilizing drones, standoff munitions, and resupplying from countries like Iran and North Korea. While Ukrainian air defenses have been effective, they are depleting under constant Russian strikes. Despite losses, Russia continues to conduct air attacks, shifting towards a ground-attack role. Moscow's attritional warfare strategy, though slow, is proving effective, and Russia’s defense industry is sustaining the war effort longer than many anticipated. The National Interest

Ukraine’s Roma have suffered worse than most in the war.The war in Ukraine has devastated its Roma community, with at least half of the pre-war population fleeing abroad, a much higher proportion than other Ukrainians. Many left due to poverty and discrimination, and few are expected to return, as many lack documents to prove their citizenship. The Roma, largely concentrated in the Transcarpathia region, face poor living conditions, limited access to work, and discrimination. Despite some serving in the military, the community remains marginalized, and the war has worsened their financial and social struggles, with little hope for immediate improvement. The Economist

Ukrainians are settling down in Britain. That creates a problem. Britain now hosts about 160,000 Ukrainians, up from 40,000 before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Most new arrivals are women, with two-thirds of Ukrainian adults being female. Many have settled well, working remotely or taking local jobs, though some are underemployed. A survey found that 68% of Ukrainians would prefer to stay in Britain permanently. While the British government has allowed them to work and receive benefits, they are considered temporary visitors, leaving a dilemma for the new Labour government as the war in Ukraine continues. The Economist

Thousands in Berlin call for end to Ukraine war support. Thousands in Berlin protested against Germany's military support for Ukraine, demanding peace negotiations and an end to weapon deliveries. Organized by a radical left-wing collective, demonstrators held signs such as "Negotiations! No weapons!" and voiced opposition to American involvement. Germany, the second-largest contributor of military aid to Ukraine, plans to halve its support next year. The far-right AfD party has gained political traction by opposing aid to Ukraine. CNA

Ukraine asks Hague tribunal to order Russia to dismantle Kerch Bridge. Ukraine has asked the Hague Arbitral Tribunal to order Russia to dismantle the illegally constructed Kerch Bridge, citing violations of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Ukraine’s deputy legal representative, Oksana Zolotariova, emphasized that dismantling the bridge is necessary to restore free passage through the Kerch Strait and protect the marine environment. Ukraine also demands Russia to stop further violations, release unlawfully seized Ukrainian drilling rigs, and remediate environmental damage caused by the bridge's construction. Hearings on this case began in September 2024. Ukrainska Pravda

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024. Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine, which began in fall 2023, has resulted in gradual tactical gains, but significant operational achievements remain elusive. Ukrainian forces are conducting a strong defense in depth, causing heavy losses to Russian forces while slowly ceding ground but preventing rapid Russian advances. Russia's offensive operations are likely to culminate soon due to manpower and material shortages. Russia’s summer 2024 offensive was prepared in advance, but recent attritional fighting has depleted accumulated resources. Russia has committed operational reserves to Donetsk and northern Kharkiv, prioritizing key sectors over theater-wide strategic reserves. The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has complicated Russia’s development of operational reserves. President Vladimir Putin is leveraging the "Time of Heroes" program to militarize local administrations and embed pro-war ideology. Russian authorities are arresting officials for corruption within the Ministry of Defense. Strikes targeted an ammunition depot near Russia's Hmeimim Airbase in Syria on Wednesday-Thursday.

Battlefield update: Russian forces advanced south of Siversk and east and southeast of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. Institute for the Study of War

Opinion: To Survive, Ukraine Needs To Stay On the Offensive.  Michael Peck argues that Ukraine must remain on the offensive to survive. While decisive victories are rare in prolonged wars, Ukraine cannot defeat Russia through attrition or a single triumph. Limited offensives, such as the operation in Kursk, aim to disrupt Russian plans and force Moscow to react. However, these attacks, though effective in the short term, cannot end the war decisively. Ukraine must adapt by launching small, surprise strikes that exploit Russia’s weak spots. Though this approach carries risks and requires Western support, it is better than an unending, unwinnable conflict. The National Interest 

Opinion: The Russian Military Will Be 'Battle-Hardened' After Ukraine War. David Kirichenko argues that, despite early failures in Ukraine, Russia's military is learning from its mistakes and becoming more formidable. Increased defense spending, modernized combat systems, and expanded troop numbers suggest Russia is preparing for future conflicts. Putin has taken a more direct role in overseeing operations, recognizing that initial assessments of military readiness were flawed. Although Russia may not be ready to confront NATO, its experience in Ukraine and adaptation to Western tactics could make it a more lethal force on future battlefields. The National Interest

AMERICAS

U.S. to dedicate $1.2 billion to restock weapons following Middle East attacks. The Pentagon plans to spend approximately $1.2 billion to support military operations in the Red Sea and replenish missile stocks following repeated engagements with Iran and its proxies, particularly the Houthi rebels in Yemen. According to budget documents submitted to congressional defense committees on September 6, the largest portion of the spending—$300 million—will go toward unplanned maintenance on U.S. ships, including the USS Bataan and vessels in the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, which have been active in the region. The budget includes around $190 million to restock RTX Corp.'s Standard Missile-3 Block 1B, and $8.5 million for AIM-X Sidewinder missiles. Additional spending includes $276 million for Standard Missile-6 purchases, $57.3 million for Tomahawk cruise missiles, and smaller amounts for other missile systems and self-defense technologies, such as the Enhanced Sea Sparrow and laser-guided rockets. The costs also cover military responses linked to defending Israel from drone and missile attacks; just this week, Washington likely spent $120 million on missile operations in the Middle East, after two Navy destroyers fired around 12 Standard Missiles defending Israel from Iranian assaults. These expenditures demonstrate the serious financial burden of maintaining a heightened military presence and missile defense systems in response to ongoing regional conflicts. Bloomberg

Mexican soldiers kill six migrants near Guatemala border.The Mexican Army opened fire Tuesday night on a truck loaded with 33 migrants being smuggled from Guatemala north across Mexico’s southern state of Chiapas,  the Mexican Defense Ministry (SEDENA) said Thursday.  Six people – four men, a young woman and a girl from Egypt, El Salvador and Peru – died.  Ten migrants were injured and 17 were unharmed.  They were of Egyptian, Nepalese, Cuban, Indian, Pakistani and Saudi nationalities. SEDENA said that a pick-up truck vehicle traveling at high speed and followed by two stake bed trucks loaded with migrants “evaded” military personnel so two soldiers fired. Claudie Sheinbaum, inaugurated Tuesday, told reporters Thursday that the two soldiers who shot the migrants were taken into custody and the Attorney General’s office would investigate. “A situation like this can’t be repeated,” Sheinbaum said. In a joint post to the X social media platform, the Mexico office of the U.N. Refugee Agency, the International Organization for Migration and the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights expressed their “concern” about the events in Chiapas. Mexico News Daily Associated Press Reuters 

Haitian gang killed more than 20, wounded dozens after devastating, small town raid. Over 20 people, including children, were killed on Thursday during a savage attack by a gang known as Gran Grif in the central Haitian town of Pont-Sondé. The gang, recognized widely in the Caribbean nation for its brutality, torched both homes and vehicles during the assault, injuring 50 and prompting dozens of residents to flee for their lives. The Commission for Dialogue, Reconciliation and Awareness, a human rights organization, reported the attack and criticized nearby police for failing to respond. The Gran Grif gang has in recent years gained control of more territory in Haiti's Artibonite region. It was previously responsible for killing police officers and forcing the closure of a hospital. The group, which has around 100 members, is notorious for severe crimes such as murder, rape, robbery, and kidnapping. This latest attack highlights the increasing spread of gang violence in Haiti, which, though centered in the capital Port-au-Prince, has expanded into other regions, including the country’s agricultural heartland. Associated Press BBC Reuters 

EUROPE

Russian diplomat says increasingly dangerous confrontation with West unprecedented.  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has warned that the mounting confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukraine war is more dangerous and unstable than the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and that the world is entering "unexplored military and political territory." Ryabkov, speaking to reporters on Thursday, cautioned that a mistake could engender a devastating disaster, especially given the risk of a nuclear clash between powers. Reuters 

Boris Johnson, in memoir, suggests Netanyahu bugged his bathroom.  Former British prime minister Boris Johnson, in his new memoir “Unleashed,” excerpted in the Daily Telegraph,  claimed that in 2017, when he was Britain’s foreign secretary, his security team found a listening device in his personal bathroom at the British Foreign Office after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used it.  Johnson also writes that he lied to Netanyahu by showing him a walnut desk and falsely claimed it was the very desk where Arthur James Balfour, as foreign secretary in 1917, wrote the Balfour Declaration that established the state of Israel. In fact, Johnson wrote, he had no idea where the document was signed. Politico EU 

How Russian oil tankers fly new flags to escape the grip of Western sanctions. The New York Times is out with a report detailing how Russia has managed to evade Western sanctions on its oil exports by using a fleet of tankers with hidden ownership, known as the "dark fleet." These ships, such as one oil tanker called the Jaguar, switched national flags to bypass sanctions; the Jaguar, for example, switched from the flag of St. Kitts and Nevis to that of Gabon, which has become a key hub for Moscow’s oil tankers, after transporting Russian oil to India. Russia has used this tactic to maintain oil exports despite price caps imposed by the Western following its invasion of Ukraine. Countries like Gabon, Liberia, and Panama have allowed Russian-affiliated ships to register under their flags, benefiting from fees while avoiding stricter regulations from Western nations. This shadow network has enabled the Kremlin to continue trading oil with countries like India and China, which are not bound by the price cap. The Gabonese ship registry, which has grown rapidly since 2023, has played a central role in Moscow’s efforts to develop a parallel shipping system beyond the reach of the West. Despite some engagement by Western authorities with Gabon, the country has continued to allow Russian tankers to register, although it did remove one ship from its registry after it was specifically named in sanctions. New York Times

Belarus opposition leader calls for release of over 200 political prisoners. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, an exiled Belarusian opposition leader, on Thursday called for the urgent release of 224 political prisoners in Belarus and implored Western nations to negotiate with Belarusian authorities. These prisoners include minors, the elderly, those with serious health conditions, and mothers of multiple children. Belarus has suffered under an ongoing repression drive since President Alexander Lukashenko cracked down on mass protests following a disputed 2020 election. The Viasna human rights group estimates that over 65,000 people have been detained, with 1,300 designated as political prisoners. Tsikhanouskaya said that 29 prisoners are in critical condition, and six have died in custody since 2020. While Lukashenko denies the existence of political prisoners, he has recently pardoned some individuals. Tsikhanouskaya welcomed these pardons but stressed the fact that many more remain imprisoned. Associated Press 

E.U. suing Hungary over law targeting foreign influence in alleged breach of fundamental rights.  The European Union on Thursday revealed that it has decided to sue the government of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán over the implementation of a controversial law, the "sovereignty protection act.” The law, which took effect in December allows Hungarian authorities to investigate and prosecute individuals or groups receiving foreign funding who are accused of undermining Budapest’s sovereignty, with those deemed guilty facing up to three years in prison. Critics compare it to Russia's "foreign agent" law, arguing that it could be used to target critics, including non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and journalists. The European Commission argues that the law violates fundamental rights, such as privacy, freedom of expression, and freedom of association. The legislation also gives the government broad powers to gather information and publicize investigations, which could stigmatize those being targeted. This legal action only adds to ongoing animosity between the bloc and Budapest, as Hungary's democratic backsliding under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has pushed the E.U. to block funding. Associated Press Financial Times  Euronews 

Opinion: Why Moldova's election is more important than it looks. Peter Apps argues that Moldova’s Oct. 20 presidential election and referendum on European Union relations may have far-reaching consequences, despite the country’s small size. Russia’s influence in Moldova, similar to its strategies in Ukraine and Georgia, includes disinformation, media manipulation, and backing pro-Russian political players. While polls suggest a pro-EU majority, Kremlin-backed forces are intensifying efforts to sway the vote. Moldova’s election could signal whether Russia is losing or solidifying control over its neighboring regions. Reuters

MIDDLE EAST

Houthis has been sending email alerts to ships in volatile Red Sea, warning of attacks.  Sources say that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis launched an email campaign this year targeting Greek shipping companies with threatening messages that warn of potential attacks on vessels passing through the Red Sea, especially those with any ties to Israel. These increasingly ominous threats, which are part of a broader Houthi strategy, have caused serious alarm among shipping companies and have prompted some to stop using Red Sea routes altogether. The initial emails announced the imposition of a Red Sea travel ban on certain vessels. One message sent later, written in English and delivered to a senior executive of a Greek shipping company, warned that one of the company’s vessels would be "directly targeted by the Yemeni Armed Forces in any area they deem appropriate.” The email was signed by the Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC), a Yemen-based body established this year to handle communications between the Houthis and commercial shipping operators. When contacted by Reuters, Houthi officials refused to verify that they had sent the intimidating emails. The E.U. naval force Aspides confirmed that Houthi militants have increased their attacks and advised ships to switch off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) to reduce the risk of being targeted. Reuters 

ASIA & OCEANIA

Chinese aircraft carrier heading for Celebes Sea as U.S., Philippine forces ready for joint maneuvers. China's Liaoning aircraft carrier, along with several escort ships, has been observed conducting maneuvers in waters southeast of the Philippines, as the U.S. and its regional allies make preparations for joint military exercises. The Japanese Ministry of Defence on Wednesday reported that the carrier was sailing towards the Celebes Sea after passing close to Okinotorishima, Japan's southernmost point, prompting a diplomatic protest from Japan over security concerns. Between late September and early October, Chinese aircraft conducted hundreds of take-offs and landings from the carrier, intensifying military activity in the region. The maneuvers are considered to be part of China’s increased use of shipborne fighter jets to pressure and intimidate Taiwan, particularly around the island’s eastern side. These developments unfold as the U.S. Marines prepare for joint exercises, the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills, with Philippine troops in the region. South China Morning Post 

Japan PM warns 'today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia.’ In his first policy speech, Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warned Friday that "today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia," highlighting concerns over regional security and rising tensions with China. He advocated for a regional military alliance akin to NATO and stressed that Asia faces its most severe security environment since World War II. CNA

North Korea repeats threats to destroy South nuclear arms if provoked. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un again threatened to use nuclear weapons and permanently destroy the South if provoked, in response to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s earlier warning that any attempt to use nuclear arms by Pyongyang would lead to the collapse of Kim’s regime. The exchange follows the North’s continued missile tests and the recent disclosure of a nuclear facility. Next week, the reclusive nation’s parliament is expected to formally declare a hostile "two-state" system on the Korean Peninsula, rejecting reconciliation with Seoul. Kim's remarks came during a Wednesday visit to a special forces unit, where he affirmed that his military would use nuclear weapons without hesitation if South Korea encroaches on Pyongyang's sovereignty. Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, also mocked South Korea’s military capabilities, asserting that conventional weapons cannot counter the North’s nuclear forces. Associated Press Reuters South China Morning Post 

Philippines concerned about foreign covert operations following alleged Chinese spying incidents. The Philippines on Thursday voiced grim worries about spying campaigns following media reports about foreign covert operations in the country. The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) asserted that it is taking these reports seriously and is coordinating with relevant agencies to monitor the situation. These statements come in response to a recent Al Jazeera documentary featuring She Zhijiang, a Chinese fugitive detained in Thailand and wanted by Beijing for illegal gambling operations. He claimed to have spied for China after being recruited in the Philippines in 2016. He also mentioned collaborating with Alice Guo, a former mayor in the Philippines, who allegedly worked for China's Ministry of State Security. Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr on Monday underscored the pressing “need to amend our espionage law to punish those involved in such acts, and so that the government can move or act to suppress it.” Reuters South China Morning Post 

AFRICA

Nations hold talks on 'urgent need' to clinch plans for new African Union mission in Somalia. The United States, along with Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom, held talks on October 1 discussing the need to secure plans for the new African Union stabilization and support mission in Somalia, according to a statement from the U.S. Department of State. The discussions also reportedly focused on the urgency of finalizing funding options for the mission. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

U.S. dockworkers halt strike following cautious pay deal. U.S. dockworkers ended their strike, the first of its kind since 1977, on Thursday after reaching a shaky agreement on pay with port operators. The strike, which started on Tuesday, had immobilized major East and Gulf Coast ports, including New York, Baltimore, and Houston. Around 45,000 workers participated in the labor action, which was called off following negotiations between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). While the terms of the agreement were not fully disclosed, sources indicated a wage increase of approximately 62% over six years, raising average wages from $39 to about $63 an hour. The union and employers also agreed to extend their master contract until January 2025 to continue negotiating unresolved issues, including automation, which dockworkers fear will result in job losses. President Joe Biden praised the end of the strike and stressed the importance of collective bargaining in building a stronger economy. Deutsche Welle BBC Associated Press Le Monde 

U.S., Microsoft dismantle websites used by hackers linked to Russian intelligence. The U.S. Department of Justice and Microsoft have taken control of 107 websites used by Russian intelligence agents and their proxies on American soil, as part of ongoing efforts to combat cyberattacks. The U.S. government seized 41 domains involved in computer fraud, while Microsoft took control of 66 more under a civil action. The websites were linked to the hacker group "Star Blizzard," which operates under the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and has been active since 2016. This group, backed by the Kremlin, targeted American organizations, including journalists, think tanks, defense contractors, and government departments, through phishing email campaigns aimed at stealing sensitive information. The takedown is expected to slow the group’s activities, though they remain operational. In December, two Russian nationals were indicted by Washington for their involvement in similar campaigns, including efforts to influence the U.K.'s 2019 elections. Microsoft and U.S. authorities believe these takedowns will hinder the hackers by forcing them to update their tactics. Microsoft’s Digital Crimes Unit has previously conducted similar operations, and this recent success was partly due to victims who shared their data. The group is also known by other names, such as Cold River, and has been linked to attacks on high-profile individuals, including a former U.K. spy chief and an American ambassador to Ukraine. CNN Bloomberg The Record U.S. Department of Justice Associated Press 

Cybersecurity firm identifies North Korean malware drive targeting Southeast Asian nations. Experts from Securonix, a Texas-based cybersecurity firm, have released a report detailing the activities of  ‘Shrouded Sleep,’ a North Korean malware campaign linked to state-backed APT37. The cybergroup has been targeting Southeast Asian countries, including Cambodia, over the last year. The campaign involves phishing emails with malware attached in zip files, designed to create backdoors into important organizations' systems. The malware, named VeilShell, allows attackers full access to compromised machines for data exfiltration and manipulation. The hackers used lure documents in languages like Khmer and English to trick users into opening malicious files that appeared to be legitimate, such as disguised PDFs or Excel files. The threat actors, which Securonix described as “patient and methodical,” then dropped malware in the background. Despite Cambodia’s historical ties to Pyongyang, the motivation behind targeting the country remains unclear. APT37 has been previously implicated in attacks on media organizations, academics, and South Korean targets. This campaign demonstrates North Korea's sophisticated and stealthy cyber-espionage capabilities in the region. The Record The Hacker News 

U.K.’s largest nuclear site fined nearly £400,000 for years of cybersecurity failings. Sellafield, the U.K.’s largest nuclear waste site, has been fined nearly £400,000 after pleading guilty to criminal charges due to repeated cybersecurity failings between 2019 and 2023. The breaches, including leaving vital nuclear information vulnerable to cyberattacks, were labeled as “bordering on negligence.” Chief magistrate Paul Goldspring described the case as a “dereliction of responsibilities.” While there was no evidence of successful attacks against the site, the failings exposed systems to potential threats. Sellafield, which is located in Cumbria and ranks as the world’s largest store of plutonium, has since improved its cybersecurity, and the fine was reduced due to its public funding. The Office for Nuclear Regulation welcomed Sellafield’s guilty plea but stressed that the failings were known for years without adequate response. The Guardian The Record Reuters 

Interpol penetrates West African cybercrime group. Eight suspected cybercriminals were recently arrested in Côte d'Ivoire as part of an international operation led by Interpol, targeting a phishing scam aimed at Swiss nationals. The scammers used QR codes to lure victims to fake websites that mimicked legitimate payment platforms, tricking them into providing personal and financial information. The scam caused over $1.4 million in reported losses, with more than 260 cases reported between August 2023 and April 2024. The arrests are part of "Operation Contender 2.0," a campaign launched in 2021 to combat cybercrime in West Africa, including business email compromise (BEC) schemes and financial fraud. The Record 

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell contributed to this report.

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