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9:30 AM ET, Wednesday, September 20, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES:

Armenian Separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh Surrender to Azerbaijan.  Azerbaijan and Armenian separatists reached a cease-fire agreement on Wednesday to end fighting in the disrupted Nagorno-Karabakh region.  Azerbaijan launched a major military operation in the territory a day earlier in what it said was an “anti-terrorist operation” to remove “illegal armed military formations.”  Local authorities said 24 civilians and soldiers were killed in the latest fighting.  Under the ceasefire, Armenian separatist forces agreed to disband and disarm, and both sides agreed to start talks on the future of the region on Thursday.  The ceasefire could lead to the end of autonomous ethnic-Armenian rule in Nagorno-Karabakh and integration of the territory into Azerbaijan.  Experts say the development shows Russia’s weakened influence in the region due to its forces being stretched in Ukraine.  The inability of Russian peacekeepers to prevent Azerbaijan from violating a 2020 ceasefire in the territory caused Armenia to criticize Moscow for failing to fulfill its role as guarantor of stability.  Analysts added that while Russian peacekeepers offered the ceasefire terms, they were likely drawn up in close coordination with Azerbaijan.  Russia has a military base inside Armenia, which held joint military exercises with the U.S. earlier this month.  Associated Press Reuters Wall Street Journal

Ukraine May Have Been Behind Attacks on Wagner-Backed Forces in Sudan.  A CNN investigation has found that Ukraine may have been behind drone strikes and a ground operation against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.  A Ukrainian military source told CNN that the operation was conducted by a “non-Sudanese military” and later said “Ukrainian special services were likely responsible.”  The alleged attacks against the RSF, which is believed to be getting support from Russia’s Wagner Group as it fights against Sudan’s army, took place near Khartoum in early September.  Video footage of the attacks matched the Ukrainian tactic of maneuvering drones to swoop directly into their target, which analysts said was unusual in Sudan.  Commercially available drones widely used by Ukraine and not seen before in Africa were also reportedly involved in at least eight of the strikes.  The attacks reportedly came after Wagner facilitated a large arms convoy to Sudan through an RSF garrison in al-Zurug.  Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for the attacks.  A top Sudanese military source said he was not aware of Ukrainian military operations in Sudan and did not believe the report.  U.S. officials appeared unaware and surprised at the report.  If Ukraine was behind the apparent covert operation in Sudan, it would mark a dramatic expansion of Ukraine’s theater of war against Russia.  CNN

Huawei Surveillance Chips Signal Evasion of U.S. Sanctions.  Huawei Technologies is shipping new Chinese-made chips to surveillance camera manufacturers in the latest sign that the Chinese tech giant is evading U.S. export controls.  Sources said the shipments from the company’s HiSilicon chip design unit began this year and that at least some of the customers are Chinese.  The shipments suggest that Huawei has worked around U.S. restrictions on chip design software.  Huawei said in March that it made developments in design tools for chips made at and above 14 nanometers, which is still two to three generations behind the most advanced technology, and most recently launched new smartphones that analysts say are powered by a domestically made advanced 5G chip.  Reuters

China Accuses NSA of Hacking Huawei.  China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) published a report on Wednesday accusing the NSA of hacking the servers of Huawei Technologies.  MSS said NSA’s Office of Tailored Access Operations (TAO) started carrying out “systematic and platform-based attacks” on Huawei’s servers in 2009 to steal “important data resources.”  The report acknowledges internal documents leaked by Edward Snowden in 2013 showing that Huawei’s headquarters was one of the NSA’s targets.  The report more widely covered the NSA’s “powerful cyberattack arsenal” for surveillance and spying.  It also claimed the U.S. has used the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act to force companies to open back doors into their systems.  The report came days after the MSS said it identified NSA operatives while investigating a cyberattack at Northwestern Polytechnic University.  The U.S. has long seen Huawei as a security threat, warning that it could create back doors in its equipment for Chinese military and intelligence agencies to access sensitive information.  The U.S. has also accused China of cyber espionage, including a recent campaign in which Chinese hackers breached the emails of top U.S. officials.  South China Morning Post 

On the U.S. Radar: The Rise of China-Backed Cyberattacks: Hollie McKay writes on China's malicious cyber activities, which the Pentagon has deemed the greatest threat to U.S. cybersecurity.  The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Financial Sector Cybersecurity is National Security: Tom Pfeifer, Executive Vice President from Booz Allen Hamilton, discusses solutions to strengthen cybersecurity of financial institutions, systems, and networks amid rising cyber threats.  The Cipher Brief

UPDATES FROM THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY:

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi took a combative anti-Western stance in his address, signaling that he is not seeking further reconciliation with the U.S. following the prisoner swap earlier this week.  Raisi called the U.S. assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, in 2020 an act of “terrorism” that helped extremists.  Raisi vowed revenge and indirectly threatened U.S. officials behind the assassination, saying “they should not rest for one moment until they have paid a price.”

Raisi also called the U.S. decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal an “egregious crime” and defiantly said following U.S. sanctions “have not yielded the desired results.”  He then said the U.S. should show “good intentions” on reviving the agreement.  The U.S. and European partners have maintained sanctions on Iran for breaching the deal by sending drones to Russia and enriching uranium close to weapons grade.

Regarding the Ukraine war, Raisi said the U.S. is “fanning the flames of violence” and that Tehran supports any political solution to end hostilities.  His comments contrast reports that Iran is sending drones to Russia for use in Ukraine and helping Russia build a drone factory near Moscow, which Tehran denies.

Raisi also complained about “Islamophobia” in the West, citing Quran burnings and bans on hijabs, saying that such actions “divert attention” from the West’s own failings.  He also said recent protests in Iran were part of an “immediate and psychological war” waged by the West, adding that reports on the protests were “distorted” and “fake.”  The protests have been led by Iranian women calling for societal change following the death of Mahsa Amini, who died one year ago in Iranian morality police custody.  New York Times Times of Israel Associated Press

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida used his address to push for new global nuclear disarmament talks, urging nuclear weapons states to engage with non-nuclear weapons states on the matter.  Kishida proposed reactivating talks on the 1993 Fissile Materials Cutoff Treaty (FMCT), which would ban further production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons purposes.  He also announced a $20 million fund to boost global nuclear nonproliferation efforts at overseas research institutions.  Kishida also condemned Russia’s violation of the rule of law and its nuclear threats.  He added that the UN Security Council veto power is “worsening divisions and contentions” and that the body needs to be reformed.  Associated Press

EU to Request that China Urge Russia Towards ‘Just Peace’ in Ukraine.  European Council President Charles Michel plans on directly asking China at the UN Security Council meeting on Wednesday to “join forces” to pressure Russia on the Ukraine war.  According to a draft of his speech, Michel will directly address the Chinese delegation to push Moscow towards a “just peace” in Ukraine that respects “the territorial sovereignty of a sovereign nation.” Both Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are expected to attend the council meeting.  Reuters

Turkey’s Erdogan and Israel’s Netanyahu Meet for First Time.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan spoke for the first time in person on Tuesday at the UN General Assembly.  According to Netanyahu's office, the two leaders agreed to make trips to each other’s countries soon.  Netanyahu also reportedly raised efforts for Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations.  The Turkish presidency added that the two spoke about issues including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Erdogan also encouraged cooperation in technology, energy, artificial intelligence, innovation, and cyber security.  Turkey's foreign minister, energy minister, and intelligence chief were also present at the meeting.  Reuters Times of Israel

Nigeria’s Tinubu Calls for Support on Niger Crisis.  Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that he seeks to re-establish constitutional order in Niger following a July coup and is welcoming any support.  Tinubu is chairman of the West African bloc ECOWAS, which has been trying to negotiate with the Niger military junta but has also said it is prepared to use force to restore constitutional order.  Tinubu noted in his address that the recent wave of coups in Africa shows “a demand for solutions to perennial problems.”  U.S. officials say they hope to engage with African leaders, including Tinubu, at the UN General Assembly to discuss solutions for Niger.  There is concern that the Niger crisis will escalate into conflict.  The Niger junta ordered its armed forces to go on highest alert last month.  Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso also recently signed a mutual defense pact which requires them to assist each other if one is attacked.   Reuters New York Times

Stay tuned for more from the UNGA in today’s afternoon report, including updates on the UN Security Council meeting and Biden’s meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in New York today.

Review highlights from the start of the first day of the General Debate in yesterday’s afternoon report, including remarks from President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

On the Battlefield

Russian Targets Ukraine’s Largest Oil Refinery.  Poltava region Governor Dmytro Lunin reported Wednesday that Russian forces targeted and struck the Kremenchuk oil refinery in central Ukraine in an overnight drone assault, igniting a fire and temporarily pausing refinery operations.  Lunin said there were no casualties and said that air defenses largely did a “good job” in the attack.  The Ukrainian military said that its air defense systems managed to down 17 out of the 24 drones that Russia launched in the attack.  Moscow has frequently targeted the Kremenchuk refinery since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.  CNN Reuters Al Jazeera Kyiv Independent New York Times

Kerch Bridge Traffic Suspended as Smokescreen Seen in Crimea.  Russian-backed authorities said Wednesday that traffic on the Kerch bridge, which connects occupied Crimea and Russia and has been targeted by Ukrainian forces, has been temporarily suspended.  Officials did not provide a reason for the move on the bridge, though it came as a smokescreen was seen near the port of Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula.  Russia has used smokescreens to try and disrupt attempted drone attacks in Crimea.  Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev said in a statement that the smokescreen, which he called “aerosol masking” was safe and he claimed that Ukrainian drones had been destroyed in the areas around Verkhnesadovoye and Kacha.  Videos posted on some social media channels however, appeared to show a “large smoke plume” near Verkhnesadovoye, where a Russian military base is located.  CNN

In Russia

Ukraine Says Saboteurs Behind Attack on Russian Air Base.  Ukrainian Defense Intelligence officials said Wednesday that “unknown saboteurs' ' were behind an attack on a Russian air base on Monday.  The incident reportedly occurred at the Chkalovsky air base, located approximately 19 miles northeast of Moscow.  Ukrainian Intelligence officials claimed “unidentified persons planted explosives” at the airfield and destroyed two military planes and a helicopter, which belonged to a Russian special forces unit and had been “involved in shooting down attack drones over the Moscow region.”  Russian media had earlier reported that a fire had occurred near the base on Monday without giving details.  CNN 

State of Play

Cargo Ship in Black Sea Suffers Explosion, May Have Hit Sea Mine.  The crew of a cargo ship in the Black Sea was evacuated to Romania after an explosion on the vessel on Wednesday.  The Togo-registered ship Seama reported the explosion off the coast of Sulina, a Romanian port near the Ukrainian border.  The blast reportedly took place in the ship’s engine room.  The crew said they believed their ship hit a sea mine, but Romanian authorities said they have yet to confirm a cause of the explosion.  Ship tracking data showed the Seama had left the Turkish port of Bartin on the Black Sea last week.  CNN Kyiv Independent

Zelensky Calls on Trump to Share Ukraine Peace Plan.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on former President Donald Trump to publicly detail his peace plans to end the Ukraine war, though he affirmed that Kyiv will not agree to any plan in which it gives up territory.  Zelensky’s comments to CNN followed Trump’s remarks to NBC on Sunday that he would make a “fair deal for everybody” to end the war, adding that he could see an arrangement where “there’s lesser territory right now than Russia’s already taken.”  Trump previously said in May that he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours.  Ukraine has said the war can only end when all Russian troops are removed from occupied Ukrainian territory.  CNN

Poland’s Duda Says Ukrainian Victory is the ‘Only Guarantee of Peace.’  Polish President Andrzej Duda echoed Kyiv’s position that there cannot be a compromise solution in Ukraine and that invading Russian forces must be fully defeated.  Speaking in a CNN interview, Duda said a Ukrainian victory will show that “Russia is not able legally to forcefully shift the borders in Europe,” which will help guarantee peace in the future.  He added that Ukraine requires continued Western support to achieve this. CNN

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

The Cyber Initiatives Group Fall 2023 Summit is happening today at 12:00pm ET.  Join us to hear directly from the experts on the new National Cybersecurity Strategy, how businesses should be looking at SEC and public notification requirements, and how experts are preparing now for possible cyber conflict around Taiwan. Register here and see the summit agenda here.

U.S. Lagging Hypersonic Weapon Development Contrasted with Chinese Successes.  The U.S. lag in developing hypersonic weapons even as China and Russia already have tested and deployed them is the subject of a Wall Street Journal special report.  Since China conducted a successful test of a hypersonic missile in 2021, the U.S. has felt the pressure to catch up.  It’s not for lack of trying, the Journal reports, as the U.S. has invested billions of dollars to develop the technology. And those efforts continue as the Pentagon 2023 budget commits $5 billion in hypersonic development programs.  Russia’s hypersonic programs add to the Pentagon’s concerns even though the country’s weapons are based on Cold War standards and are not thought to reach the sophistication of Chinese weapons.  Pentagon stymied efforts to advance the technology “run up and down the decision chain,” according to the Journal, and include flight test failures, substandard testing infrastructure, and the absence of a clear strategy for developing the weapons.  Spurred on by China’s successes, Pentagon officials are considering how best to respond.  Some observers question whether the U.S. should concentrate on defensive systems while others claim even if U.S. adversaries have more hypersonic missiles, U.S. versions ultimately will be more advanced.  The DoD currently is developing two different types of hypersonic weapons, cruise missiles and air-launched glide vehicles.  Although exact plans are classified, the Pentagon reportedly is funding a half dozen hypersonic weapons, although a strategy for selecting which ones to advance to deployment is not yet clear.  Wall Street Journal

New Malware Package Deployed Against Middle East Telecommunications Networks.  A new type of malware called HTTPSnoop is being deployed against telecommunications networks in the Middle East.  Cisco Talos researchers reported Tuesday that two pieces of malware masquerading as legitimate security software components are complicating detection efforts.  The researchers said that the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP’s) of the attackers do not point to particular hacking groups.  Cisco Talos did not attribute the malware to a particular country, but believes the operation is state-sponsored.  HTTPSnoop has been deployed alongside another malware application, called PipeSnoop, which together created an intrusion dubbed ShroudedSnooper.   Researchers said the intrusion tools are distinctive for the “huge degree of sophistication and stealth in their operations.”  The HTTPSnoop backdoor allows hackers to listen to incoming requests for specific URLs and execute that content on infected machines.  Cisco Talos said the hackers’ efforts to pass off the malware as components of security software indicates they were “significantly confident of evading specific security solutions in victim environments.”  The Record BleepingComputer

DoD Cyber Official Reflects on Cyberwarfare Lessons Learned from Ukraine.  The role of cyber in an armed conflict has undergone substantial revision in Pentagon strategies thanks to the experience of Ukraine, according to Mieke Eoyang, deputy assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy.  “Cyber has an important role to play in conflict, it’s just not the role that I think we expected it to play,” Eoyang explained in a meeting with defense writers.  The actual conflict in Ukraine, she said has shifted the way planners think about the cyber dimension because “the kinetic conflict is different than what we expected cyber to do on its own.”  In recalibrating its expectations of cyberwarfare, the DoD has emphasized the importance of integrating cyber with other military operational components, which Eoyang described as “a matter of planning, patience, things like that.” Eoyang revisited some of the assumptions DoD officials made about Russian cyber operations prior to its invasion, including the expectation that “disruptions to communications via cyber would be much more severe and have a much more strategic impact on Ukraine’s ability to fight than it did.”  Now, Eoyang said, the recently released DoD Cyber Strategy shows a different perspective on cyber, one that underscores that for a warfare capability to be effective “it’s going to take some planning.”  Russia’s approach may not have accounted for how vital preparation and timing are in the use of cyber weapons.  Eoyang also pointed to cloud migration as a key lesson learned of the Ukraine conflict, noting “the ability of Ukrainians to move their data extra territorially but still maintain access to it, was really important.”  DefenseScoop

Axios Survey Shows Strong AI Expert Support for Federal Regulatory Department.  An Axios-Syracuse University survey of experts in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector shows a clear majority favoring creation of a government “Department of AI” over leaving the AI governance task to Congress or the private sector.  The experts from leading U.S. universities also expressed support for the establishment of a global regulator for AI.  Survey respondents were split over whether AI will supersede human control but agreed that the technology must be subject to regulation, which the experts said would move AI in a positive direction.  A mere 1 in 6 of the participants thought AI cannot be regulated, with a minority voicing trust in the private sector to self-regulate.  Individuals, such as President Joe Biden, were not viewed by the experts as highly trusted to deal with AI issues; Biden was named by only 9 percent of respondents as capable in this regard, followed by Sundar Pichai, Elon Musk, and Sam Altman.   In terms of AI dangers, 42 percent of respondents named AI discrimination and bias as a leading concern over the risk of mass unemployment, which was identified by 22 percent.  However, 62 percent forecast AI as a factor in increasing racial, gender and economic disparities.  On the positive side, productivity growth was projected by 62 percent in technology sectors, 44 percent in data and research analytics, and 34 percent for health care.  Cyrus Beschloss, the CEO of Generation Lab, found the survey results on regulating authority instructive, pointing to the number of experts who “think we should regulate AI via a new Department of AI rather than leave it to Congress, POTUS or global charter."  Speaking of AI risks, Beschloss observed that "the threat of a human-crushing AI is not a concern to most of the smartest voices in the AI conversation."  Axios

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

Pacific Islands Forum to Attend Second Summit at White House.  President Joe Biden is set to host a second gathering with leaders of the 18-member Pacific Islands Forum on Monday at the White House, as part of Washington’s strategy to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific.  Karine Jean-Pierre, White House Press Secretary, announced that Biden will use the summit to "reaffirm the U.S. commitment to our shared regional priorities" with Pacific Islands countries and encourage collaboration on issues such as boosting economic growth, addressing climate change, and countering illegal fishing.  Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum Henry Puna said on Monday that the region will "engage with any partner who is willing to work with us, rather than around us,” and emphasized the importance of bringing about concrete action on problems such as the climate crisis and recovery from the pandemic.  Reuters

Japan Urges China to Remove Buoy Near Contested Senkaku Islands.  Japan has pressed China to remove a buoy that it discovered floating in the East China Sea close to the disputed Senkaku islands, which China calls the Diaoyu islands.  Tokyo claims the buoy was found inside its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which stretches 200 nautical miles from a nation’s territorial sea.  The chain of islands is located about 190 nautical miles southwest of Okinawa and has been controlled by Japan since 1895.  A Japanese foreign ministry official said that Tokyo has been protesting the buoy since the Japanese coast guard found it in July.  The official added that “we have demanded the immediate removal of the buoy as it is against international laws” to erect any structure in Japan’s EEZ.  The Japanese Ministry of Defense has previously accused Beijing of “relentless” encroachments around the islands, reporting the presence of Chinese coast guard vessels around the contested territory for 111 consecutive days between April and August 2020.  Al Jazeera The Straits Times

Six Palestinians Killed in Refugee Camps and Gaza Strip.  Palestinian health officials said Wednesday that at least six Palestinians were killed due to Israeli military operations in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.  The Palestinian Health Ministry said four people were killed and 30 injured after Israeli forces raided the Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank.  Another Palestinian was killed in a different raid at a separate refugee camp, and Israeli fire in the Gaza Strip killed a sixth Palestinian.  The Israeli military said that soldiers opened fire toward a Palestinian who was hurling explosives at them while they were conducting an overnight arrest raid in the camp of Aqabat Jabr, close to the city of Jericho. Israeli forces added that htey exchanged gunfire with gunmen in Jenin on Tuesday after carrying out a rare strike with a suicide drone.  Three of those killed in Jenin were claimed as members of Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad.  Associated Press BBC Times of Israel

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