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5:30 PM ET, Tuesday, September 19, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES:

U.S. Seeking Mutual Defense Treaty With Saudi Arabia.  U.S. and Saudi officials are reportedly discussing a mutual defense treaty under which both countries would provide military support if the other is attacked in the region or on Saudi territory.  The agreement would be modeled after pacts the U.S. has with Japan and South Korea.  However, in contrast to U.S. military deployments in East Asia, officials say there are no serious talks about having a large U.S. military contingent in Saudi Arabia under the treaty.  There are currently around 2,700 U.S. troops already in the kingdom.  U.S. officials said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman regards the treaty as the most important point in talks with the U.S. about normalizing relations with Israel.  Saudi officials added that the pact would help deter aggression from Iran and its partners even as Riyadh and Tehran reestablish diplomatic ties.  A treaty with Saudi Arabia would likely draw objections from U.S. lawmakers concerned with the kingdom’s human rights record and role in the Yemen war.  It would also contradict the Biden administration’s stated goal of reorienting U.S. military focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific to counter China.  New York Times

Pentagon Officials Say Taiwan Blockade Would Likely Fail, Invasion Would Be Difficult.  Senior Pentagon officials told Congress on Tuesday that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would likely fail and that a direct military invasion of the island would be extremely difficult for China to accomplish.  Ely Ratner, U.S. assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security Affairs, said that a blockade would give Taiwan’s allies time to mobilize resources for the island.  He added that a blockade would likely be so devastating for the global economy that it would harden international resolve against China for the move.  He also noted that the blockade would be very risky for China as it would be forced to consider whether it is willing to attack commercial maritime vessels to maintain the blockade.  Army Major General Joseph McGee, vice director for strategy, plans and policy of the Pentagon’s Joint Staff, added that an invasion of Taiwan would not be any easier.  He highlighted that for an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, China would have to mass “maybe hundreds of thousands of troops on its eastern coast,” which would be a “clear signal” for Taiwan to prepare defenses.  He added that Taiwan has few beaches and mountainous terrain, which would complicate landings, and a population “that would be willing to fight” against an invading Chinese force.  China’s military has stepped up activity around the island, which Beijing claims is a renegade province.  CIA Director William Burns has previously warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be prepared to invade the island by 2027.  Reuters

Canada Says it Worked With U.S. on Intelligence Linking India to Killing of Sikh Leader.  A senior Canadian government official said Tuesday that Canada worked “very closely” with the U.S. on intelligence that suggests Indian government agents were potentially involved in the killing of a Sikh leader on Canadian soil earlier this year.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Monday that Canadian authorities were investigating allegations tying New Delhi to the shooting of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June. The Canadian official said Canada has worked closely with the U.S. on the matter, “including on the public disclosure yesterday”. The issue has heightened tensions between India and Canada.  India expelled a Candian diplomat in a tit-for-tat move for Canada's expulsion of India’s top intelligence official over the matter.  Sources say the two countries have also paused trade talks due to the issue.  Reuters

TOP UPDATES FROM THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY:

UN Secretary Antonio Guterres: First to speak, Guterres said the world is becoming “unhinged” and that global governance is “stuck in time” and unable to effectively address the world’s problems.  He warned the world is nearing a “Great Fracture” in its financial, security and digital systems.  To address this, Guterres called for the reform of multilateral bodies, including the UN Security Council.  Regarding global financial systems, he proposed a $500 billion rescue package for the most heavily indebted countries.  Guterres also criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying it violated the UN Charter and international law and “unleashed a nexus of horror.”  He noted that the war has “serious implications” for all countries, highlighting “nuclear threats” and global food instability caused by disruption of access to both Ukrainian grains and Russian grain and fertilizers.  To the latter point, he affirmed he will continue to try to revive the Black Sea grain deal, which Russia withdrew from in July.  CNN Reuters The Guardian

President Joe Biden: The U.S. president warned against appeasing Russia by allowing Ukraine to be “carved up,” saying that if Ukraine isn’t defended, it will be impossible for any state to feel “protected” or believe that their independence is “secure.”  Biden called on the world to stand up against Russia’s “naked aggression” to deter future aggressors.  He was more measured in his remarks about China, saying that the U.S. will “push back on intimidation” by Beijing while working to “responsibly manage the competition” with China to avoid conflict.  Biden also urged advanced nations to bolster the economies of the so-called Global South.

Biden also called on the U.N. to authorize a security mission for Haiti.  U.S., Kenyan and Haitian officials will reportedly meet on the sidelines of the gathering to discuss Kenya’s offer to lead such a mission, and the U.S. and Ecuador are expected to submit a joint resolution to the U.N. Security Council formally proposing the mission.

Analysts say Biden’s speech covered a broad range of topics without breaking much new ground.  His address focused on Ukraine less than his speech at last year’s gathering and appeared to focus heavily on outreach to developing nations.

After his address, Biden met with leaders of five Central Asian countries – Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.  On Wednesday, he is scheduled to meet separately with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Washington Post New York Times Reuters CNN

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukraine’s president told world leaders that Russia’s invasion is “not only about Ukraine,” noting global disruptions from the war.  He raised Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports to prevent shipments of Ukrainian grain as an “attempt to weaponize the food shortage on the global market” for recognition of its occupied territories.  Zelensky also pointed out Russia’s attempts to block gas and oil access to European countries, calling it a “weaponization of energy.”  He also said Russia is using Ukraine’s power plants as “real dirty bombs,” referring to Russia’s occupation and reported attacks on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  More widely, Zelensky warned Russia’s war is an attack against the international rules-based order and said that if Moscow succeeds in Ukraine, “many seats in the General Assembly hall may become empty,” inferring that Moscow will turn its aggression to other countries.  To counter this, Zelensky called on unity to restrain Russia and support Ukraine.  He added that Ukraine will not accept a peace plan that is anything less than a full Ukrainian victory, saying there is still a chance to “end the aggression on the terms of the state that was attacked” and that Kyiv wants to ensure that after the war, “no one in the world will dare to attack any nation.”  CNN New York Times Reuters

Get more updates from the rest of today’s afternoon session in tomorrow morning’s report.

STORIES THAT MAY NOT BE ON YOUR RADAR:

Pentagon Warns Government Shutdown Could Disrupt Ukraine Aid.  A Pentagon spokesperson warned on Tuesday that a U.S. government shutdown could disrupt U.S. military aid and training support for Ukraine.  The spokesperson said that the delivery of equipment and training of Ukrainian forces could be disrupted due to furloughs of U.S. military personnel and the suspension of activities not deemed essential to U.S. national security in a shutdown.  The Pentagon would also not be able to sign new contracts with defense companies for more equipment for Ukraine.  Any impacts on U.S. support would come at a critical point in Ukraine’s counteroffensive and as the U.S. prepares to deliver M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and train Ukrainian pilots with F-16-related language training.  CNN

Britain Invites China To Participate in November AI Safety Summit.  British Foreign Minister James Cleverly announced Tuesday that the UK has invited China to participate in the global AI Safety Summit to be held in November.  Cleverly explained that "the UK's approach to China is to protect our institutions and infrastructure, align with partners and engage where it is in the UK’s national interest."  The AI summit to be held November 1-2 at Bletchley Park will gather political leaders, tech executives and representatives of international governing bodies for discussions on AI risks and potential.  Cleverly, who visited Beijing in August, has argued for engagement with China, pointing to the need for China’s involvement in global issues like climate change and economic uncertainty.  Cleverly’s statement noted that "we cannot keep the UK public safe from the risks of AI if we exclude one of the leading nations in AI tech.”  Reuters Telegraph  CNBC

International Criminal Court Says Hackers Breached its Systems.  The International Criminal Court (ICC) said on Tuesday that its computer system was hacked.  The ICC has not said how serious the hack it was, whether it was resolved, or who might have been behind it, only saying that it detected unusual activity on its network at the end of last week.  The court handles highly sensitive documents relating to war crimes, including criminal evidence and names of protected witnesses.  The ICC said it is continuing to analyze the impact of the hack in cooperation with Dutch authorities.  The Dutch intelligence agency AIVD said in 2022 that Russia was interested in the ICC due to the court’s investigation of Russian war crimes in Georgia and Ukraine.  In June of 2022, AIVD said it found a Russian military agent posed as a Brazilian to try and infiltrate the court.  Reuters BleepingComputer TechCrunch

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

On the Battlefield

Top U.S. General Says Ukraine Liberated Over Half of Occupied Territory Since Russia’s Invasion.  Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley said Tuesday that Ukraine had liberated more than 54% of the territory that was once occupied by Russia.  Milley credited the achievement to the “bravery, the honor and the incredible sacrifice made by the Ukrainian people and their military,” adding that Ukraine continues to make “deliberate, steady progress” in the liberation of Russian-occupied territory.  To clarify, Milley’s spokesman Col. Dave Butler said that the 54% of reclaimed territory refers to the area liberated since Russia’s invasion in 2022, including areas around Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson.  CNN 

New York Times Reports Errant Ukrainian Air Defense Missile Hit Market.  Evidence collected by The New York Times suggests the explosion that killed at least 16 people in a market in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka earlier this month was caused by an errant air defense missile fired by Ukraine.  The newspaper reported that the explosion and missile debris were consistent with the 0M38 missile fired by a Buk launch system, which both Ukraine and Russia use.  The newspaper added that security camera footage showed the missile came from the direction of Ukrainian-held territory, rather than from behind Russian lines.  The report also said Ukraine launched two surface-to-air missiles towards the front from the town of Druzhkivka minutes before the market was hit, and a witness said the missiles were fired towards Kostiantynivka.  Ukraine had previously said Russia was responsible for the incident.  The press service of Ukraine’s SBU security service responded to the report by saying its ongoing investigation into the explosion showed a Russian S-300 missile system was to blame.  Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak added that foreign media reports raising “doubts about Russia’s involvement in the attack… entails the growth of conspiracy theories.”  Russia’s foreign ministry previously described the blast as “a Ukrainian attack on its own city.”  Ukraine and the West have condemned Russia for targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastrucutre, which Moscow denies.  New York Times Reuters

From Russia

Russian Court Denies Gershkovich’s Detention Appeal.  A Moscow court rejected an appeal by Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich against his pre-trial detention.  The court said the appeal was withdrawn from consideration due to unspecified procedural violations.  The decision means Gershkovich will remain in pre-trial detention till November 30.  Russian authorities arrested Gershkovich in March on espionage charges, which he and the U.S. have denied.  CNN Wall Street Journal 

Russia’s Defense Minister Shoigu Visits Tehran.  Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in Tehran on Tuesday to meet top Iranian officials.  Shoigu said in a meeting with Iran’s armed forces chief of staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri that Moscow seeks to bolster bilateral military cooperation with Iran.  Iranian state media added that the talks covered “development of defense diplomacy” and “management of common threats.”  Russia and Iran have bolstered military cooperation since the start of the Ukraine war.  The U.S. has accused Iran of sending drones to Russia for use in its invasion, which Tehran has denied.  Barron’s Reuters

State of Play

Ukraine Open to Compromise on Grain Dispute With Neighbors.  Ukraine appealed to Poland, Slovakia and Hungary to engage in “constructive dialogue” to end their dispute over Ukrainian grain products.  The three EU countries said they would unilaterally maintain a ban on Ukrainian grain imports to protect their own farmers, even after the European Commission ended the ban.  Ukraine has taken its first steps on a trade dispute on the matter by filing a complaint to the World Trade Organization.  Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal added that Ukraine will impose retaliatory import restrictions on certain Polish and Hungarian goods if the bans are maintained.  However, he also said Kyiv is open to a compromise on the issue, signaled by its intention to approve export licenses for goods sent to its neighbors.  Reuters 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

Accidental Microsoft Data Leaks Expose Sensitive Keys, Future Product Plans.  An accidental exposure of Microsoft Teams messages and other data by company AI researchers was caused by a misconfigured link on the AI training platform.  The leak of cloud-hosted data included Microsoft employees’ personal computer backups containing passwords to Microsoft services, secret keys, and more than 30,000 internal Microsoft Teams messages from 359 Microsoft employees.  The data release was discovered by analysts with the Wiz cloud security company, which reported that the leak occurred when Microsoft’s research team published open-source training data on GitHub.  Wiz researchers noted in a blog post that “this case is an example of the new risks organizations face when starting to leverage the power of AI more broadly, as more of their engineers now work with massive amounts of training data.”  A Microsoft spokesperson confirmed that “no customer data was exposed, and no other internal services were put at risk.”  Wiz researchers uncovered the data repository while scanning the Internet for misconfigured storage containers, an element of its continuing effort to detect accidental exposures of cloud-hosted data.  Meanwhile, Cybernews reports that unredacted Microsoft documents appearing on Resetera, an Internet forum for video game discussions, have exposed a “roadmap” for the company’s new products, including an all-digital Xbox Series X console, an upgraded controller featuring haptic feedback, and new 2024 game releases.  Cybernews describes the leak as an apparent accident. The documents, which were marked as confidential business information, originate from a Microsoft legal dispute with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).  Bloomberg CyberScoop Cybernews Axios The Record

Portugal Taking Steps To Exclude Huawei Equipment from 5G Networks.  Portugal has joined a number of other countries, including the U.S., in taking action against the use of Huawei telecommunications equipment in the Portuguese 5G mobile networks.  Portugal's Cybersecurity Council, the CSSC, announced it is working with network operators to put into effect a resolution that effectively bans use of Huawei equipment.  Huawei filed a lawsuit against the resolution at the end of August, seeking "protection of its legitimate interests and legal rights under the law.”  However, Portugal's main telecommunications operators, Altice, NOS, and Vodafone, previously announced they will not use Huawei equipment in 5G core networks.  The CSSC chair, Portugal's secretary of state for digitalization Mario Campolargo, told Reuters that the May resolution concerning 5G networks was based on an “independent, strict security assessment” following European Union guidelines, and did not single out Chinese suppliers.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Solarium Commission Criticizes Stalled Action on Cybersecurity Recommendations.  Key recommendations to the Biden administration concerning large-scale computer security improvements issued by the Cyberspace Solarium Commission have largely stalled, a Commission report said Tuesday.  A lengthy list of unimplemented recommendations includes steps to clarify liability for federal cyber responses, funding for R&D into cybersecurity insurance certificates, and development of a national breach notification law.  The report acknowledged that 70 percent of the commission’s 80 recommendations have been enacted or are close to implementation.  But committee chairmen Sen. Angus King and Rep. Mike Gallagher said that it is vital to sustain momentum in cybersecurity as cyberattacks and threats continue to grow.  Of the recommendations not yet fully implemented, 26 are “on track” to completion and 11 reflect limited or delayed progress.  A single recommendation — the creation of a House Permanent Select and a Senate Select Committee on Cybersecurity – faces what the report describes as “significant barriers” to completion.  There has been resistance to these committee proposals although draft legislative language exists in case a major cyber event overcomes “political barriers.”  The Commission’s support for a national data security and privacy protection law is described as “on track” although it faces an uncertain future in Congress, where several committees are examining draft privacy legislation.  CyberScoop

Clorox Ordering, Production Systems Still Hampered by Cyberattack Damage.  Clorox reported Monday that its production systems are still hampered by a cyberattack that occurred in August.  The cleaning product firm said the attack “damaged portions of the company’s IT infrastructure,” leading to large operational disruptions.  The company did not disclose whether the cyber incident was a ransomware attempt.  The company noted that its ability to process orders is beginning to lead to product shortages, and it expects financial repercussions from the attack.  Nevertheless, normal automated order processing is expected to resume next week, and production has started up at the “vast majority of its manufacturing sites.”  A return to full production is expected “to occur over time” although the company could not offer an estimate of when that will occur.  The Record Wall Street Journal The Hill

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Iran Drone Network.  The Biden administration on Tuesday sanctioned multiple entities in Iran, Russia, China, and Turkey over alleged links to Iran's drone and military aircraft programs. The sanctions target seven individuals and four entities that the U.S. accused of facilitating “shipments and financial transactions” to Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company and its unmanned aerial vehicle and military aircraft programs.  The sanctions follow the U.S.-Iran prisoner swap earlier this week.  Reuters Bloomberg

Houthis, Saudi Arabia Conclude Talks, Some Progress Reportedly Made.  A delegation of Houthi negotiators left Riyadh on Tuesday after talks with Saudi Arabia on a potential agreement to end the war in Yemen.  Sources said some progress has been made, including on a timeline for foreign troops to withdraw from Yemen and a mechanism for paying public wages.  Talks are also reportedly touched on the full reopening of Houthi-controlled ports and Sanaa airport.  Both sides have reportedly agreed for more talks after consultations “soon.”   The Saudi government did not comment on the matter.  The Houthis and a Saudi-led military alliance have been at war in Yemen since 2015.  Reuters

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