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Blockade by Permission: How Iran Determines Who Gets Through Hormuz

For roughly two weeks, the Karachi, a Pakistani-flagged Aframax tanker loaded with crude at Das Island in Abu Dhabi, sat waiting for a signal that [...] More

Why a War in the Middle East Is Hitting Australians at the Petrol Pump

Why a War in the Middle East Is Hitting Australians at the Petrol Pump

OPINION – Economic insulation is no longer guaranteed by geography. Australia is nevertheless very vulnerable to geopolitical unrest in the Middle [...] More

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

DIA - UNCONFIRMED – We’re hearing from the rumor mill that DIA Deputy Director Christine Bordine’s last day in that role was today (Wednesday) and that Greg Ryckman will serve as Acting Deputy Director. We’re also hearing that the permanent DD could be a political appointee but that’s nothing but rumor right now. We hear Martin Kindl is the new Deputy Director of Global Integration. He formerly served as DJ2 at Joint Staff and more recently as Deputy DDGI. CONFIRMED – Kelli Arena has been named as the new President and Chief Executive Officer of The National Cryptologic Foundation starting next month. A lot of insiders [...] More

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State Secrets

A mass-casualty attack at Sydney’s Bondi Beach in December 2025 shattered assumptions about the decline of ISIS - and raised urgent questions about what comes next.

In this episode of State Secrets, Suzanne Kelly speaks with terrorism experts Levi West and Andrew Zammit to unpack what made this attack different: months of planning, coordinated tactics, and a clear alignment with evolving ISIS strategy.

The discussion reveals a troubling shift - from isolated, impulsive attacks to more deliberate, semi-organized operations fueled by sophisticated propaganda and global events like the Gaza conflict. The group also examines how ISIS is leveraging English-language messaging, rebuilding momentum across regions like Afghanistan and the Sahel, and blurring the line between “inspired” and “directed” attacks.

Most importantly, they explore what this means for U.S. and allied security services at a time when counterterrorism is no longer the top global priority.

Bottom line: ISIS may look diminished - but the threat is adapting in ways that are harder to detect, disrupt, and defeat.