Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Offers Golden Opportunity to Overcome Its History
The mood in Kyiv is relentlessly upbeat. This is a moment for Westerners to suppress their anxieties and support the counteroffensive. There will be moments […] More
Archive for ‘Ukraine’
Managing Expectations for the Ukrainian Counteroffensive
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the U.S. has allocated more than $75 billion in military, economic, and humanitarian support to Kyiv, in […] More
Exclusive Interview: Ukraine and Beyond Through the Lens of U.S. Military Intelligence
SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The battle for Bakhmut, where Russian paramilitaries have been leading an eight-month effort to take the symbolically significant Ukrainian city, was widely expected to […] More
Zelensky has Six Months to Win the War for the West
If Ukraine does not defeat Russia in the coming six months, the West is likely to pressure President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate with Russian President […] More
The Stakes in Ukraine are Greater than you Think
SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW – On the eve of a widely predicted Ukrainian offensive along a 900-mile front that includes a bevy of fixed Russian positions, the very nature […] More
The Consequences of Success and Failure for Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
Rob Dannenberg, Former CIA Chief of Central Eurasia Division Rob Dannenberg served as chief of operations for CIA’s Counterterrorism Center, chief of the Central Eurasia […] More
Time May Be Running Short for Ukraine to Strike Back
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING — Control of southern and eastern Ukraine – of which Russia has seized an estimated 40,000 square miles – could likely be […] More
Leak Questions Begin To Center Around A Cell Phone
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – A wall of small lockers, replete with keys and combination locks, stands just inside the Pentagon – one of many where, […] More
With Belarus in the Fold, Putin Looks Beyond to Restore the Russian Empire
OPINION – “Considering the strengthening of Russia as one of the leading centers of development in the modern world and its independent foreign policy as […] More
Ukraine’s New Master of Order and Chaos and the Hunt for Saboteurs and Collaborators
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – Kyiv, Ukraine – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently announced new sanctions against more than 650 individuals and legal entities that the […] More
China’s Chess Game in Ukraine: Is the West Ready?
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — On the heels of Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia, the world seems to be waking up to the implications of China’s possible […] More
As Cyber Strikes Mount, What Happens in Ukraine Doesn’t Stay in Ukraine
CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – The scale of Russia’s cyber-attacks in Ukraine swelled in the first quarter of 2023, a top Ukrainian official told a gathering […] More
After Moscow, What is China’s Next Move?
ANALYSIS/INTERVIEW — Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended talks in Moscow this week by declaring that their alliance was driving geopolitical change […] More
Intelligence in the Age of New Global Alliances
ANALYSIS/INTERVIEW — Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow this week demonstrates Beijing’s strongest support yet for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the China-Russia alliance, […] More
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief Predicts How War Will End
Kyiv, Ukraine – As Ukraine announces a planned counteroffensive in the Spring, the head of the country’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, is […] More
Could the Wagner Group Be Facing New Competition?
The privately-owned military company Wagner Group under Yevgeny Prigozhin’s leadership, has served important Russian military and influence goals in Ukraine and elsewhere. The group’s march […] More
Is China Coming to Russia’s Rescue in Ukraine?
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said at an annual parliamentary session in Beijing this week, that China is actively working to […] More
The Wagner Group’s Route to Infamy
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: The privately-owned Russian soldier-for-hire group known as the Wagner Group once operated in the shadows but in the past year, it […] More
How Close are we Really to Broader Global Conflict?
BLUF – The Western challenge is to ensure that Putin is defeated in Ukraine, but without allowing the conflict to spread beyond Ukraine’s borders-to Taiwan, […] More
What We Know About Putin in his Own Words
OPINION — “Generally speaking, nothing can replace the school of war. People return entirely different, and they are ready to lay down their lives for the Fatherland, wherever they may be […] More
Warning Signs of a More Dangerous Global Conflict
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT — If President Joe Biden’s recent remarks in Poland and President Vladimir Putin’s in Moscow just a day later are any […] More
Prolonged Ukraine Conflict Looms Even as Arms Deliveries Grow
As critical as it is to discern Russia’s next battlefield moves, there are longer term implications for the United States and NATO stemming from their […] More
Russia Is Kind of Becoming a ‘Colony of China’
Russia’s economic struggles in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine are forcing Moscow to become more closely aligned with China, India, North Korea and […] More
Russia’s Military still has a lot to worry about
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — On the eve of the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Andriy Chernyak, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate at […] More