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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

There Will be Unseen Costs to be Paid over the War in Iran. Who is Weighing Them?

As Negotiations Enter an ‘Operational Pause’, the Devil of any Deal is still in the Details.

TOPSHOT-IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-TRANSPORT-HORMUZ

EXPERT INTERVIEW – With an interim agreement expected as early as today between the U.S. and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping [...] More

Middle East Iran Brad Christian
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The Open Source Report

IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-DAILYLIFE Iranians enjoy the seashore as vessels are seen in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran on August 10, 2026. The US President signalled on August 9 that he was prepared to let economic pressure mount against Iran, apparently backing away from more military strikes after Tehran issued a list of demands for opening the Strait of Hormuz. His remarks came after Iran issued over the weekend a list of conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained largely closed since the start of the Middle East war in late February. (Photo by Atta KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) /

Global Intelligence Report for Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Four crew, two rescuers killed in Red Sea Houthi attack as U.S. forces strike vessel in Gulf

Iran said to have known intimate details of Trump’s stay at NATO summit in Turkey

German Cabinet greenlights controversial intelligence service reforms amid hybrid threats

North Korea conducts another missile launch ahead of key South Korea-U.S. military drills

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

How About Equipping Local Law Enforcement with a Better Anti-Drone Arsenal?

Joey Gagnard

During the week of March 9, drones came over Barksdale Air Force Base in waves. Barksdale is the home of the 2nd Bomb Wing, one of the places this country keeps its nuclear-capable bombers. The base issued a [...] More

Joey Gagnard
Opinion

How Ukraine Is Changing the Way the U.S. Army Fights

Walter Pincus

“To me, the biggest way that we're doing this is introducing technology into the [U.S. Army] formations that is not fully baked. And so all of us who were in the Army in the 90s, the 2000s, even the 2010s, you were issued [...] More

Walter Pincus Fine Print
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News & Analysis

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

Editor’s note- Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the character of warfare, proving that autonomous and attritable drones are no [...] More

Tech/Cyber Xen

Opinion

The Houthis’ External and Internal Crises Converge: Can a Tactical Solution Fix a Strategic Problem?

Ari Heistein

The Houthis’ External and Internal Crises Converge: Can a Tactical Solution Fix a Strategic Problem?

As they fire dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles against Saudi-led coalition forces in Yemeni government-controlled areas, the Houthis are [...] More

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Book Reviews

Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience
Lessons on Political Violence, State Capacity, and Democratic Resilience

Sects, Lies, and Statecraft
Sects, Lies, and Statecraft

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The Best National Security Gossip

GERMANY’S SPIES GET PERMISSION TO SPY: The Guardian reports that the German cabinet has approved legislation dramatically expanding the powers of the country’s foreign intelligence service, the BND, and domestic security service, the BfV — including the authority to hack computer systems, disrupt foreign cyber operations and use spyware and AI to analyze data. The reforms (which must still pass parliament) would also allow German intelligence to take active measures against threats, including secretly neutralizing explosives. That provision comes amid growing concern over hybrid operations, including last week’s discovery [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Artificial intelligence is transforming cyber warfare - and former NSA Director and U.S. Cyber Command Commander Gen. Paul Nakasone says the speed of that transformation demands a new approach to America’s defense.

In this episode of The Cipher Brief’s State Secrets podcast, Suzanne Kelly sits down with Gen. Nakasone to discuss how AI is reshaping offensive and defensive cyber operations - and why increasingly autonomous systems could fundamentally change the role humans play in cyber conflict.

They examine China’s penetration of U.S. telecommunications and critical infrastructure, cyber threats from Iran, Russia and North Korea, the growing ransomware threat, the race to prepare for quantum computing, and what Ukraine is teaching the world about autonomous warfare.

Gen. Nakasone also explains why America’s intelligence capabilities remain a critical competitive advantage, why defending critical infrastructure requires deeper partnerships between government and the private sector, and what national security leaders should be watching now.