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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

Do Oil Sanctions Still Work?

History says it’s complicated.

Do Oil Sanctions Still Work?

DEEP DIVE — On October 22, 2025, in his boldest move yet to force Vladimir Putin back to the negotiating table, President Trump unleashed sweeping [...] More

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The Open Source Report

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (R) and Ukraine's Presidential Office Chief of staff Andriy Yermak hold a press conference following their closed-door talks on a US plan to end the war in Ukraine at the US Mission in Geneva, on November 23, 2025.

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, November 24, 2025

US to launch new phase of Venezuela operations, sources say

Ukraine, U.S. report progress in discussions on ending war, but divulge few details

Israel kills Hezbollah military leader in Beirut strike

Beijing blasts Japan’s ‘extremely dangerous’ missile deployment near Taiwan

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

The Human Algorithm: Why Disinformation Outruns Truth and What It Means for Our Future

Jennifer Ewbank

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — In recent years, the national conversation about disinformation has often focused on bot networks, foreign operatives, and algorithmic manipulation at industrial scale. Those concerns are valid, and I [...] More

Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

Rob Dannenberg

EXPERT OPINION – The recently leaked 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine is nothing short of an appeasement that satisfies the maximalist demands of the aggressor in the conflict, Russian President Vladimir [...] More

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News & Analysis

A file picture taken 12 July 2007 shows the headquarters (aka Lubianka) of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the former KGB in Moscow.

Russia’s Intelligence Services After the War

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Russia’s intelligence services (RIS) have failed spectacularly in Ukraine: in planning, execution, and analysis, yet they will [...] More

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Opinion

The Downside to Mission Focus: Why the Intelligence Community Should Not Forget to Look Inward

Josh Kerbel

The Downside to Mission Focus: Why the Intelligence Community Should Not Forget to Look Inward

OPINION — Not long ago, I was talking to an old friend and China analyst about the need for Intelligence Community (IC) analysts to spend [...] More

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What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Tapping a China Vibe in South Koreaplay icon

Tapping a China Vibe in South Korea

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Book Reviews

When the Chekists Took Up the Pen
When the Chekists Took Up the Pen

The Nazis Never Left. A Worthy Successor to a Classic Thriller
The Nazis Never Left. A Worthy Successor to a Classic Thriller

From OSS to AI: How Intelligence Must Evolve—Again
From OSS to AI: How Intelligence Must Evolve—Again

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The Best National Security Gossip

ALBM ROCK: The South China Morning Post is out with a piece on China’s new JL-1 hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) — that Beijing apparently hopes will round out its nuclear triad. The headline touts how the JL-1 “beats U.S. rivals,” but the fine print quietly notes a snag: the missile can only be launched by the H-6N bomber, a Cold War antique based on the Soviet Badger bomber which went into service in 1954. The range of the JL-1 (whose name translates to “Shocking Thunder-1”) launched from an H-6N means (according to the SCMP citing a Chinese military magazine) that it could pose a nuclear threat to [...] More

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Events

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The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of March 13, 2026. This Black-Tie event is invite only, please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 13 March, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets

Cover Stories: Spies, Books & Entertainment


David McCloskey, former CIA Analyst turned novelist is out with his fourth book, The Persian, about an Iranian dentist who is recruited by Mossad to take on a dangerous mission inside Iran. Cover Stories Host Suzanne Kelly digs in on how McCloskey’s real-life Intelligence background fueled his latest novel, and discovers a few of McCloskey’s own secrets along the way.