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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

Exactly how could AI kill humans?

As AI systems grow more autonomous, experts warn the real danger may not be malicious machines—but systems moving faster than humans can control them.

Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton walked out of a closed-door Capitol Hill briefing on September 17 and gave lawmakers a deadline.“Maybe a year, but not [...] More

Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

Hegseth’s Vision for a New American Military

“It's worth saying again so that the fake news understands it. We are no longer the woke department or the weak department. Simple translation of that: No fanny, no fatties, no beardos, no weirdos, no wimps, no radicals, [...] More

Opinion

Election Security: Keeping Our Disagreements Our Own

About one month before Election Day, Americans deserve to know how their government is protecting elections from foreign threats. The Pentagon’s recent directive assigns military intelligence and cyber capabilities to [...] More

News & Analysis

Moscow Kremlin - stock photo

How America Appeased Putin

Excerpt from Spies: The Epic Intelligence War Between East and WestWhen Spies was first published in 2023, it made front-page news with the chilling [...] More

Opinion

Unique Risks of AI Adoption in Developing Economies

The U.S. must set dominance of global AI sector as a strategic economic and national security priority. If the PRC becomes the dominant provider of [...] More

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

STILL ON THE DISTRIBUTION LIST: August Hanning ran Germany's Federal Intelligence Service from 1998 to 2005 but there are some suspicions that he never really fell off the distribution list. (His former outfit is known as the BND - because the “Bundesnachrichtendienst” doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue.) According to the BBC, Hanning was arrested this week on suspicion of espionage, treason and obtaining classified information for a foreign power. Police also arrested Manfred D., his former chief of staff, who stayed at the BND until this year. Prosecutors allege that Manfred D. used that perch to pass Hanning about [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

In this episode of The Cipher Brief’s State Secrets podcast, host Suzanne Kelly sits down with award-winning historian and bestselling author Simon Sebag Montefiore to discuss his new book, The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East — a sweeping history of roughly 125 years that traces how the region became what it is today.

Drawing on a lifetime of research, writing and travel throughout the Middle East, Montefiore explains why he wanted to write a book that brought the region’s complicated history together in one story — from the final years of the Ottoman Empire and the rise of modern Saudi Arabia to the creation of Israel, the 1979 Iranian Revolution, America’s growing role in the region and the power struggles shaping the Middle East today.

Kelly and Montefiore explore some of the central arguments in The Cauldron, including why he believes the familiar story that Western powers simply drew arbitrary borders after World War I and created the modern Middle East is incomplete. Instead, he puts greater emphasis on the agency of the region’s own leaders, peoples and empires and tells much of that history through the larger-than-life personalities who shaped it.

The conversation moves from Ibn Saud, Atatürk, Reza Shah and David Ben-Gurion to Gamal Abdel Nasser and Ayatollah Khomeini, while also examining the historical forces behind Iran’s role in the region, Russia’s centuries-old interests in the Middle East and the challenges outside powers have repeatedly faced when trying to shape events there.

At its core, The Cauldron is an effort to answer a deceptively simple question: How did we get here? Montefiore explains why understanding that history may not allow us to predict what happens next — but can give us critical context for understanding the people, decisions and forces driving the Middle East today.