The Cipher Brief

The Continued Myth of Russia’s Imminent Collapse: Lessons from Prigozhin’s Mutiny Three Years On

As speculation about Vladimir Putin’s downfall grows again, lessons of Prigozhin’s rebellion remain widely misunderstood.

KREMLIN FILES/COLUMN: Three years ago, in June 2023, the Kremlin confronted one of the most dramatic internal crises of Vladimir Putin's [...] More

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Trump’s Dangerous Bet on Pakistan’s Army Chief

Trump’s Dangerous Bet on Pakistan’s Army Chief

In the dusty streets of Rawalakot in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir this June, security forces opened fire on demonstrators demanding basic rights and an [...] More

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FOR BETTER OR WORSE – According to reporting from MS NOW, (not the president’s favorite network) two Atlanta-based FBI intelligence analysts were dismissed after declining to participate in an investigation into what the president is convinced was voter fraud in the 2020 election. The two analysts reportedly told colleagues that they did not believe the probe met the standards typically required for an FBI inquiry. The analysts, a married couple, were reportedly escorted from the building, which saves them the agony of participating in an investigation that has become a major undertaking, with hundreds of FBI analysts [...] More

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Speaking from the NATO summit in Ankara, Nick Fishwick assesses the alliance’s most urgent challenges, from Europe’s push to increase defense spending to the need for greater intelligence sharing and military interoperability. He explains why a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine remains unlikely, what NATO is learning from Ukraine’s battlefield innovation, and why Russia continues to represent the alliance’s principal security threat. Fishwick also discusses the diminishing focus on Greenland as the war with Iran reshapes U.S. priorities.

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As speculation about Vladimir Putin’s downfall grows again, lessons of Prigozhin’s rebellion remain widely misunderstood.

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Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.)

Admiral Sandy Winnefeld (Ret.), Former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Guy C. Swann III

Lt. Gen. Michael Groen (Ret.)

General John R. Allen (Ret.)