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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

From Socialist Surge to Regional Realignment- Latin America’s Pink Tide Is Receding

From Colombia to Venezuela, the balance of power in Latin America is changing fast.

From Socialist Surge to Regional Realignment- Latin America’s Pink Tide Is Receding

Latin America’s Pink Tide Recedes as Economic Reality Fractures Socialist AllianceLatin America’s leftist front is hitting a wall. The momentum that [...] More

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The Open Source Report

A plume of black smoke rises from the port of Fujairah in the gulf emirate of Fujairah on March 4, 2026. Iran's strikes on Gulf neighbours since February 28, following the US-Israeli attack, forced the UAE to shut its airspace, blindsiding travellers who thought they were headed to one of the region's safest holiday destinations. (Photo by Fadel SENNA / AFP via Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Truce falters as Iran and U.S. launch attacks across Mideast, Iran targets UAE

U.S. intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran's nuclear program, sources say

Russia announces May 9 ceasefire as Ukraine counters with earlier proposal

White House considers vetting AI models before they are released


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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Why Abu Dhabi Walked Away from OPEC After Nearly 60 Years

Chip Usher

OPINION – When UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei announced Tuesday that Abu Dhabi is leaving OPEC – a cartel it has been a member of since 1967 – he called it a “pure policy change” and a “policy-driven evolution [...] More

Britain’s Antisemitism Crisis Is Now a National Security Threat

Nick Fishwick

There has been yet another terrorist attack targeting Britain’s Jewish community. This time, two Jewish men were stabbed on Wednesday in Golders Green, London - a leading center of Jewish life and culture in the UK. The [...] More

News & Analysis

Man in a fur hat speaks at a podium with microphones, North Korean flag in the background.

That Other Nuclear Nightmare: North Korea Sounds New Alarms

DEEP DIVE – As the U.S. grapples with the still-unsolved problem of Iran’s nuclear program, another American adversary is expanding its nuclear [...] More

Opinion

Human vs. Machine: Operational Realities from Ukraine’s Frontline

OPINION – A global debate is underway over how much human involvement should be required when artificial intelligence is implemented in military [...] More

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Book Reviews

UNSURE ABOUT THAT ASSESSMENT: Reuters has an exclusive get, reporting that U.S. intelligence agencies have been tasked by senior administration officials with assessing how Iran would respond if President Trump simply declared unilateral victory in the two-month-old war and ended it. The assignment was said to be partly driven by concern that a grinding conflict could cost Republicans at the midterms. This would presumably be a different declaration of victory than the several Trump has already issued. Reuters says that the IC ran this same exercise in February and concluded that Iran would likely interpret a U.S. victory [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets

What does “success” look like in a conflict with Iran - and what comes next? In this in-depth conversation, General David Petraeus joins The Cipher Brief’s Suzanne Kelly to unpack the military and strategic realities shaping today’s most consequential conflicts. From the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to the unresolved risks around Iran’s nuclear program, Petraeus explains what’s at stake not just for the U.S., but for the global economy. But the real story? Ukraine. Petraeus calls it the true test case for the future of war - where drones, autonomy, and rapid innovation are redefining the battlefield in real time.