The Cipher Brief

Blockade by Permission: How Iran Determines Who Gets Through Hormuz

Rather than shutting the Strait of Hormuz outright, Iran is selectively allowing favored vessels through - turning one of the world’s most vital energy chokepoints into a tool of geopolitical leverage.

For roughly two weeks, the Karachi, a Pakistani-flagged Aframax tanker loaded with crude at Das Island in Abu Dhabi, sat waiting for a signal that [...] More

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Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Trump’s Cyber Strategy Is a Strong Playbook, but It’s All in the Execution

OPINION — The White House is making a significant effort toward putting the nation’s cyber house in order. A newly released National Cyber Strategy represents a big step in the right direction for U.S. national security [...] More

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Romania Pays the Cyber Price for Backing Ukraine. Where is the EU?

Romania Pays the Cyber Price for Backing Ukraine. Where is the EU?

OPINION – When ransomware groups hit Romania’s national water agency, its largest coal-fired power producer and oil pipeline operator all in recent [...] More

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GRU COLONEL'S COVERT ANT COLONY BECOMES A CASUALTY OF WAR: The Insider, the Latvia-based Russian investigative outlet that has made a cottage industry of unmasking GRU operatives, published a gem this week involving Iran, air defense radar, and roughly 1,000 ants. Yes, ants. GRU Lt. Col. Yuly Deryabin was posted to Tehran to advise Iran on Russian radar systems. Then the U.S. and Israel reportedly wiped out most of Iran’s air defenses on Day One, including the systems Deryabin was there to protect. A career setback, to say the least.But the real story is the ants. The Insider says that Deryabin, who apparently inherited a [...] More

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State Secrets

A mass-casualty attack at Sydney’s Bondi Beach in December 2025 shattered assumptions about the decline of ISIS - and raised urgent questions about what comes next.

In this episode of State Secrets, Suzanne Kelly speaks with terrorism experts Levi West and Andrew Zammit to unpack what made this attack different: months of planning, coordinated tactics, and a clear alignment with evolving ISIS strategy.

The discussion reveals a troubling shift - from isolated, impulsive attacks to more deliberate, semi-organized operations fueled by sophisticated propaganda and global events like the Gaza conflict. The group also examines how ISIS is leveraging English-language messaging, rebuilding momentum across regions like Afghanistan and the Sahel, and blurring the line between “inspired” and “directed” attacks.

Most importantly, they explore what this means for U.S. and allied security services at a time when counterterrorism is no longer the top global priority.

Bottom line: ISIS may look diminished - but the threat is adapting in ways that are harder to detect, disrupt, and defeat.