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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

China's Military: Five Lessons from the Iran War

A rare public statement from the People’s Liberation Army offers clues about how China views American power—and future conflicts such as Taiwan.

China Holds Annual Two Sessions Political Meetings-NPC

It may seem early to be drawing lessons from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, but one of the world’s most powerful militaries has already reached [...] More

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The Open Source Report

U.S. And Israel Wage War Against Iran

Global Intelligence Report for Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Israel says it killed two Iranian officials in major blow to Tehran’s leadership

U.S. envoy Witkoff has been in contact with Iran’s Abbas Araghchi

Europe pushes back on Trump’s Strait of Hormuz demands

Islamabad rejects Afghan claim that 400 people were killed in Pakistani strike on Kabul hospital

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Defining Victory in the Iran War

John McLaughlin

OPINION — Two weeks ago, in the first hours of the war, I listed several possible scenarios for the outcome. No one can confidently know where this is going for all the reasons I listed then -- as the war has shown, a [...] More

Inside Trump’s Thinking on the Iran War

Walter Pincus

OPINION — “Remember this: We're being nice. I [President Trump] could take out [Iran’s] things within the next hour, we could hang up [this telephone interview] and within one hour you’d be reading about [the U.S. [...] More

News & Analysis

RUSSIA-UKRAINE-CONFLICT-POLITICS

After the War and After Putin: Three Potential Succession Scenarios for Russia’s Modern Tsar

THE KREMLIN FILES / COLUMN — Recent weeks have seen seismic shifts in the world’s authoritarian landscape: from the dramatic removal of Venezuela’s [...] More

Opinion

The Drone War’s Real Problem Isn’t Technology — It’s Speed

OPINION — When Steve Blank and I sat down over coffee a decade ago and realized that the customer discovery process in Lean was identical to what I'd [...] More

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Book Reviews

TUCKER’S DEEP STATE TALES: Tucker Carlson posted a five-minute video Saturday night claiming that the CIA read his texts with Iranian contacts and is preparing a criminal referral against him to the Department of Justice - punishment, he implies, for his journalism before the U.S. struck Iran. Let’s explore some context, shall we? The CIA is statutorily barred from domestic surveillance on U.S. persons. So if Carlson's texts were collected, it most likely would have been NSA incidental collection under FISA 702 - standard intake when the foreign end of a conversation is a valid target. Carlson claimed the charges against [...] More

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Events

Live Events

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2026 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of March 13, 2026. This Black-Tie event is invite only, please apply here for a [...] More

Previous Event: 13 March, 2026

Podcasts

State Secrets


Washington Post columnist and bestselling novelist David Ignatius joins State Secrets to reflect on more than five decades covering intelligence, war, and global power. In this conversation with Suzanne Kelly, Ignatius shares his perspective on what he calls a potentially historic moment in U.S. conflict with Iran and explains why today’s battles increasingly unfold in the gray zone - from cyber operations to covert networks operating far from traditional battlefields.

Ignatius also discusses the evolving relationship between journalists and intelligence agencies, the challenges of reporting during periods of restricted access, and why original reporting still matters in an era of AI-generated analysis.

Drawing on decades of travel and firsthand reporting - from Beirut to Kyiv - he explains why being on the ground remains essential to understanding modern conflict, including what he calls Ukraine’s emerging “algorithm war.”

The conversation comes as Ignatius is honored with The Cipher Brief’s 2026 Impact in Journalism Award, recognizing a career spent uncovering how intelligence, technology, and geopolitics shape the world.