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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

High-Stakes Talks in D.C.: Frozen Assets, Air Defense, and Tomahawks

The U.S. faces a pivotal decision on providing Tomahawks to Kyiv - a move that would expand Ukraine’s deep-strike reach

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is greeted by US President Donald Trump (L) upon arrival at the White House West Wing in Washington, DC, on August 18, 2025.

DEEP DIVE – A senior Ukrainian delegation will travel to Washington D.C. this week for talks that are expected to include the use of frozen Russian [...] More

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The Open Source Report

U.S. President Donald Trump (2R) is welcomed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) at Ben Gurion International Airport on October 13, 2025 in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Report for Global Intelligence Monday, October 13, 2025

Trump arrives in Mideast to mark fragile ceasefire deal as Hamas releases all living hostages

U.S. intelligence helps Ukraine target Russian energy infrastructure

Trump says he will urge Putin to end the war or face the U.S. sending Tomahawks to Ukraine

U.S. chip sector braces for rare earths supply chain disruptions with new Chinese export rules

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

The Future of U.S. Intelligence: Leaner, Smarter, and Tech-Focused

Renee Pruneau Novakoff

EXPERT OPINION — It is time to reimagine the US intelligence community (IC). The 1947 National Security Act established the CIA which arguably had the biggest impact on the modern age of U.S. intelligence. Subsequent [...] More

A Deniable Attack with Strategic Precision: Why the Red Hat Breach Looks More Like Statecraft Than Mere Crime

Gloria Glaubman

EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — The timing was no coincidence.As the U.S. federal government ground to a halt at 12:01 a.m. EDT on October 1, 2025, a cybercriminal group calling itself the Crimson Collective chose that precise [...] More

News & Analysis

Telecom Bust Near the UN Reveals New National Security Vulnerability

Telecom Bust Near the UN Reveals New National Security Vulnerability

DEEP DIVE — When Secret Service agents swept into an inconspicuous building near the United Nations General Assembly late last month, they weren’t [...] More

Opinion

Forget Guerrillas and IEDs - The Next Asymmetric War Will Be Engineered

OPINION — For most of modern history, asymmetric conflict conjured a familiar image: guerrillas in the hills, insurgents planting roadside bombs, or [...] More

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Book Reviews

TIME TO CHOOSE YOUR TEAM: The Record, a publication by Recorded Future, reported on Friday that President Donald Trump has decided not to nominate Army Lieutenant General William Hartman, the current acting head of both the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command, to those posts permanently. The Record says they have four sources (none on the record of course) confirming the decision. What’s more, they say Hartman, when told he would not be getting the gigs, put in his retirement papers. Hartman not getting the job is a little confusing if, as The Record reports, he had the support of both Secretary of War Pete [...] More

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Events

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Threat Conference

Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 19 October, 2025

Podcasts

State Secrets


As tensions rise globally, so does the risk of conflict. Poland’s Prime Minister has recently warned that Poland is closer to war than at any time since WWII. And while Russia’s war against Ukraine escalates with no clear path to peace in sight, other incidents such cyberattacks and drone incursions across NATO airspace are fueling growing uncertainty among European leaders.

At the same time, U.S.–China competition is intensifying across economic, military, and technological fronts with some arguing that the risk of military conflict between Washington and Beijing is rising. But some experts argue the U.S. is already engaged in a “Gray War” with Beijing - without realizing it.

In this episode of The State Secrets Podcast, guest host Brad Christian speaks with former CIA officers Dave Pitts and Chip Usher, authors of a recent Cipher Brief article called China’s Gray War on America. Together, they unpack Beijing’s doctrine of “Unrestricted Warfare,” explore the six strategic fronts of China’s current strategy against the U.S., and assess America’s vulnerabilities and options. From the fight for AI supremacy to the dangers of strategic defeat, this conversation is a must-listen for anyone concerned with the future of U.S. power and security.

Cover Stories: Spies, Books & Entertainment


David McCloskey, former CIA Analyst turned novelist is out with his fourth book, The Persian, about an Iranian dentist who is recruited by Mossad to take on a dangerous mission inside Iran. Cover Stories Host Suzanne Kelly digs in on how McCloskey’s real-life Intelligence background fueled his latest novel, and discovers a few of McCloskey’s own secrets along the way.