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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

The Continued Myth of Russia’s Imminent Collapse: Lessons from Prigozhin’s Mutiny Three Years On

As speculation about Vladimir Putin’s downfall grows again, lessons of Prigozhin’s rebellion remain widely misunderstood.

TOPSHOT-RUSSIA-UKRAINE-CONFLICT-WAGNER

KREMLIN FILES/COLUMN: Three years ago, in June 2023, the Kremlin confronted one of the most dramatic internal crises of Vladimir Putin's [...] More

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The Open Source Report

 IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR Motorists drive along Tehran's Enghelab Square on July 15, 2026, past a giant anti-US billboard featuring US president Donald Trump in a coffin with text in Persian reading "We Kill Trump". Hostilities renewed between Iran and the US, endangering a memorandum of understanding, reached in June with Qatari and Pakistani mediation, aimed at ending the war. The confrontation resumed on July 7 after attacks on ships in the Gulf, which Iran has attributed to Iran. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images) /

Global Intelligence Report for Thursday, July 16, 2026

Trump leans toward expanding U.S. military operations in Iran

Vance says some in Israeli government sought to sway U.S. on deal with Tehran

White House weighs releasing intel on China and U.S. elections, with Trump expected to allege Chinese meddling

Thousands of Ukrainians protest after dismissal of Defense Minister Fedorov amid political tensions

Access Today’s Report

Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

The West Must Tell Russians the Truth About the War

Tell the Russian people about the carnage in Russia’s war with Ukraine. Tell them about the Russian lives lost and the crushing financial cost of a five-year invasion of a sovereign nation. Former President Ronald Reagan [...] More

Opinion

A Master List of Espionage Targets, Suspected Spies, and Potential Recruits

It was with alarm that I read the recent New York Times article reporting the regurgitation of a truly terrible idea that, like a bad meal, continues to come up every several years. The Times reports that the Office of [...] More

News & Analysis

U.S. Military Launches Operation Epic Fury Attacking Iran

Endless Warfare – Part II: Countering Endless Warfare and its Networks

Author’s Note: This article is not about ‘endless wars’ as a critique of U.S. military interventions — that debate belongs elsewhere. It examines a [...] More

Opinion

The Pentagon Built a Faster Engine, Nobody Built the Steering

The Department of War has just executed the most ambitious acquisition reform in six decades. It scrapped JCIDS — the requirements process that [...] More

What’s on The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel

Book Reviews

FOR BETTER OR WORSE – According to reporting from MS NOW, (not the president’s favorite network) two Atlanta-based FBI intelligence analysts were dismissed after declining to participate in an investigation into what the president is convinced was voter fraud in the 2020 election. The two analysts reportedly told colleagues that they did not believe the probe met the standards typically required for an FBI inquiry. The analysts, a married couple, were reportedly escorted from the building, which saves them the agony of participating in an investigation that has become a major undertaking, with hundreds of FBI analysts [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Speaking on the NATO summit in Ankara, Nick Fishwick assesses the alliance’s most urgent challenges, from Europe’s push to increase defense spending to the need for greater intelligence sharing and military interoperability. He explains why a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine remains unlikely, what NATO is learning from Ukraine’s battlefield innovation, and why Russia continues to represent the alliance’s principal security threat. Fishwick also discusses the diminishing focus on Greenland as the war with Iran reshapes U.S. priorities.