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The Cipher Brief: National Security news, analysis and expert commentary.

There Will be Unseen Costs to be Paid over the War in Iran. Who is Weighing Them?

As Negotiations Enter an ‘Operational Pause’, the Devil of any Deal is still in the Details.

TOPSHOT-IRAN-US-ISRAEL-WAR-TRANSPORT-HORMUZ

EXPERT INTERVIEW – With an interim agreement expected as early as today between the U.S. and Iran aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping [...] More

Middle East Iran Brad Christian
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The Open Source Report

Daily Life In Iran Amid New Conflicts Between Iran And U.S. Vehicles move along an avenue beneath an anti-U.S. mural in Tehran, Iran, on July 16, 2026. This occurs amid new tensions between Iran and the United States. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Global Intelligence Report for Monday, August 10, 2026

Trump signals shift from military action toward economic pressure on Iran, says U.S. ‘only semi-negotiating’

Pentagon asks defense firms to boost production of key systems

Germany battling ‘daily’ hybrid warfare attacks, minister warns

Netanyahu rejects Trump-backed Gaza plan for Hamas to disarm, Israel to withdraw

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Expert Insights

Cipher Brief Experts bring context to today’s global events

Opinion

America, North Korea, and the Search for Peace

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani

The South Korean Buddhist monk, the Venerable Pomnyun Sunimin, in his book “What is Happiness?” introduces us to his philosophy of life: “Everyone born into this world has the right to be happy … and being helpful to the [...] More

Ambassador Joseph DeTrani
Opinion

BLUF: The US Must Lead in Gray Zone Activity

Renee Pruneau Novakoff

As Washington works on the historically large defense budget, there is one theme which should loom large in the budget but comparatively, will cost little. Key to our national security is countering the gray zone activity [...] More

Renee Pruneau Novakoff
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News & Analysis

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

We've Seen Autonomous Warfare and We're in Trouble

Editor’s note- Russia's war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed the character of warfare, proving that autonomous and attritable drones are no [...] More

Tech/Cyber Xen

Opinion

AI Summaries Are Susceptible to Manipulation — and That's Both a Business and a National Security Problem

Candice Bryant

AI Summaries Are Susceptible to Manipulation — and That's Both a Business and a National Security Problem

More and more people are using AI like a search engine – 42 percent of U.S. adults now use AI chatbots to search for information – and that shift is [...] More

Alternative Perspectives

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Book Reviews

Sects, Lies, and Statecraft
Sects, Lies, and Statecraft

A Symptom and Instrument of Foreign Power
A Symptom and Instrument of Foreign Power

When Doomsday Prose Overplays Its Hand
When Doomsday Prose Overplays Its Hand

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The Best National Security Gossip

MOSSAD'S "BRING BACK AHMADINEJAD" PLAN GETS THE AXE — SO DO ITS ARCHITECTS: Regime change is easier to propose than to pull off. According to the Times of Israel, citing Israel's Channel 12, Mossad Director Roman Gofman has removed the chiefs of the agency's Intelligence Directorate and Iran Division. According to the reporting, the officials were believed to be the architects of a plan to topple the regime in Tehran by arming Kurdish factions under Israeli/U.S. air cover and installing former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the new man in charge. Yes, that Ahmadinejad, the Holocaust-denying one. Netanyahu reportedly [...] More

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Events

Live Events

2026 Threat Conference

2026 Threat Conference

The Cipher Brief Threat Conference is the nation’s premier forum for non-partisan discussion of global threats and solutions as well as high-level [...] More

Upcoming: 25 October, 2026

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

The Cipher Brief 2027 HONORS Awards

Join us for the third annual Cipher Brief Honors Dinner, the evening of April 9, 2027. This Black-Tie event is invite-only. Please apply here for a [...] More

Upcoming: 09 April, 2027

Podcasts

State Secrets

Recorded on location in Kyiv, Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery joins Suzanne Kelly for a timely State Secrets conversation on how Ukraine is reshaping the future of warfare.

Editor's Note: We caught up with Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery in Kyiv just as President Zelensky announced the firing of former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, prompting a wave of protests. Since this interview was recorded, additional developments - including changes in Ukraine's military leadership - have overtaken parts of that discussion. The strategic insights on Ukraine's battlefield innovation, however, remain as relevant as ever.

From Ukraine's increasingly effective long-range drone campaign against Russia's military infrastructure to the growing strain on Kyiv's air defenses, Montgomery explains why this war is becoming the world's most important laboratory for military innovation. He also shares firsthand observations from his latest trip to Ukraine - including conversations with commanders on the front lines - and discusses what the U.S., NATO, and Taiwan should be learning before the next major conflict.