Tuesday, May 30, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Brazil, Venezuela Criticize US Sanctions on Venezuela. Brazilian president Luis Inacio Lula de Silva and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Monday criticized recent US sanctions imposed on Venezuela after Maduro’s election in 2018. Lula called the sanctions “extremely exaggerated” while Maduro said that he hopes to find support at a South American summit in Brazil for the removal of the sanctions. Lula also criticized the US for not recognizing the legitimacy of Maduro’s presidency. Maduro is currently visiting Brazil for the first time since 2015, alongside other South American leaders meeting as part of Lula’s effort to reinvigorate the Union of South American Nations, or Unsaur, regional grouping. Associated Press Bloomberg Deutsche Welle Reuters
Canadian Spy Agency Warns MP Targeted by Chinese Foreign Interference. Canadian MP Jenny Kwan said Monday that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) warned her last week that she is being targeted for foreign interference by the Chinese government. Kwan, who was born in Hong Kong, said she is being targeted for her criticism of China’s crackdown on rights in Hong Kong. She did not say what the attempted influence attempts look like, but said that CSIS has evidence that the interference campaign dates back to the 2019 federal election. The disclosure came after it was revealed that another Canadian lawmaker, Michael Chong, has been targeted for foreign interference by Beijing. Politico
Canadian Soldier Extradited to Thailand Over Gang Shooting. Matthew Dupre, a former Canadian soldier, is being extradited to Thailand for his involvement in the killing of a criminal gang member last year. Thai authorities said Dupre is allegedly responsible for shooting dead the gang member, Jimi Sandhu in Phuket last February. Thai officials say that Dupre will not face the death penalty for the killing, but that he must still be tried under the Thai judicial system. Reuters
Ex-El Salvador President Sentenced to 14 Years in Prison. An El Salvador court sentenced former El Salvador President Mauricio Funes and his former justice and defense minister David Munguia to 14 years in prison on Monday. The country’s attorney general said that Funes and Munguia were sentenced over their connections to criminal groups, as well as their failure to comply with their duties in office. Funes currently lives in Nicaragua and now holds Nicaraguan citizenship which, under the Nicaraguan constitution, prevents him from being extradited. Associated Press Reuters
Western Europe
Europe Debates Need for ‘War Economy’ Output. Deutsche Welle is out with a report on whether Europe needs, or is even open to ramping up defense production to “war economy” levels. EU Commissioner Thierry Breton started referring to the concept in March in pursuit of stronger efforts by EU governments to purchase and produce weapons and ammunition to send to Ukraine and replenish depleted stockpiles. Experts say many countries are not responding well to the concept; German officials have already said they do not like the term “war economy,” as it harkens back to their country’s dark history of Nazi rule. Other analysts say that even those who embrace the concept are not following through with required action as increased defense production would likely involve greater state guidance, potentially even including rationing. Beyond whether or not a country supports the idea of a “war economy,” some security analysts say that it is more important to ensure Europe is of the mindset that it must continue to militarily support Ukraine. Deutsche Welle
Central and Eastern Europe
Drone Strike Hits Moscow. A rare drone strike hit Moscow on Tuesday, damaging residential buildings in the west of the Russian capital. The Russian Defense Ministry said eight drones were involved in the attack, and that it was able to jam three of them while air defenses downed the remaining five. Moscow officials said the attack caused “minor” damage and injured at least two people. The Russian Defense Ministry said the drone strikes were a “terrorist attack” launched by Ukraine, and the Kremlin said the attack was a response to previous Russian strikes on Kyiv, though they did not provide evidence for their claims. Russian lawmakers echoed this, saying all Russian citizens must now clearly see the threat from Ukraine and that Russian defenses must be strengthened. Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak denied Ukraine’s involvement in the attack but said that Kyiv is “pleased to watch” and expects further incidents in Russian territory. Associated Press Kyiv Independent Reuters Washington Post
Russia Continues Airstrikes on Kyiv. Before the Moscow drone strikes, Russia again launched a wave of drone and missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Kyiv officials say air defenses destroyed 29 of 31 drones launched at the city. A high-rise residential building was hit by falling debris in the attack and caught fire, which killed one person. Falling debris in Kyiv’s southern districts also sparked fires. Deutsche Welle Reuters
Ukraine Parliament Approves Tax Breaks for Domestic Drone Producers. Ukraine’s parliament on Monday voted to exempt domestic drone producers from customs duties and value added tax. Ukraine has relied on drones as a low-cost way to counter invading Russian forces. Ukraine drone manufacturers and non-governmental organizations have previously told Reuters that a major obstacle to ramping up drone production in Ukraine has been customs regulations. The new measures aim to get Ukrainian drone producers better access to imports of equipment and parts to make and repair drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must sign the bills for them to go into effect. Reuters
Biden, Erdogan Discuss Sweden, F-16 Jets. President Joe Biden spoke with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday shortly after he won re-election in Turkey’s presidential run-off vote on Sunday. Biden told reporters that Erdogan said Turkey still wants to buy F-16 fighter jets from the U.S., and that Biden responded by saying Washington wants a deal on Sweden’s NATO membership bid. Turkey has long-sought to purchase $20 million worth of F-16s and around 80 modernization kits to upgrade its fighter jet fleet, but Congress has stalled this sale over concerns about Turkey’s human rights record, actions in Syria and its recent resistance to allowing Sweden to join NATO over concerns that the Nordic country harbors members of groups that Ankara considers terrorist organizations. Biden said that there will be more discussions with Turkey on Sweden’s NATO application in the coming days. The Turkish Presidency said Biden and Erdogan’s call focused on a recommitment to deepening bilateral ties. (Editor’s Note: Read what James Jeffrey, former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, thinks is next for Turkey on Sweden, and relations with both the U.S. and Russia following President Erdogan’s reelection here.) Reuters The White House The Cipher Brief
NATO Peacekeepers Injured in Kosovo Clashes. NATO peacekeepers clashed with protesters in Kosovo on Monday in the latest escalation of tensions in the region. The NATO troops were deployed to municipalities in northern Kosovo where ethnic Serbs have been resisting newly elected ethnic Albanian mayors. The most significant clashes occurred in the municipality of Zvecan, where 25 NATO peacekeepers, including 14 Italian soldiers and Hungarian and Moldovan troops, were injured. Witnesses say the NATO troops fired tear gas and stun grenades to protect Kosovar police officers and disperse protesters. Serbian officials say protesters were attacked during “peaceful” demonstrations. The Serbian military has been put on high alert amid the unrest and is sending more troops to the border with Kosovo. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said Monday that he would spend the night with Serbian troops on the border and blamed Kosovo officials for the tensions, adding that Albanian forces in northern Kosovo are “occupiers.” Vucic also said he would meet with the ambassadors of the U.S., Russia, China, several EU countries and the head of the EU mission in Pristina on Tuesday to discuss the situation. The U.S. condemned reported “violent actions” from protesters, including the use of explosives, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced concern about the unrest, saying that a “large eruption is brewing up in the center of Europe.” Associated Press CNN Reuters
Russian Cruise Missile in Poland Underscores NATO Defense Challenges. The Russian cruise missile that was found 10 miles from a NATO training center in Poland in April has continued to cause concern about the defense of the alliance’s airspace. Western officials say the missile was launched during a Russian attack on Ukraine in December and appeared to be a variant of the Russian KH-55 cruise missile, one of the older weapons that Western military intelligence believes Moscow is using as decoys to confuse Ukrainian air defenses. Poland said it detected a flying object in its airspace at the time but that neither NATO fighter jets or Polish radar were able to identify the projectile. Polish authorities did not search for the object after it disappeared from radar screens; NATO does not have a protocol for searching for debris when an object is detected. Polish officials maintain there was no operational error and that shooting down the missile would not have been best practice, as the downing of unidentified objects has led to major accidents in the past. In sum, the incident has revealed potential flaws in NATO defense capabilities and policy, while underscoring challenges to maintaining a strong air and missile defense posture. Wall Street Journal
Asia and Oceania
China Declines US Request for Defense Minister Meeting. China reportedly rejected a U.S. proposal for U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to meet with his Chinese counterpart, defense minister Li Shangfu at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore this weekend. The Pentagon confirmed to media outlets that China was not open to the meeting, which would have been a major sign of re-engagement between Beijing and Washington amid heightened tensions. China’s foreign ministry blamed the US for the decision against the meeting, saying that the U.S. is “well aware” of reasons behind the refusal, which may be in reference to China’s previous signals that such a meeting won’t happen unless the U.S. lifts sanctions on Li, which were imposed in 2018 over his connection to Chinese purchases of Russian fighter jets and missiles. Senior-level engagement between the US and China, especially concerning military communication, has largely stalled since the Chinese spy balloon incident, though recent meetings — including U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan’s meeting with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Vienna, as well as Chinese commerce minister Wang Wentao’s meeting with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo in Washington last week — have suggested some progress. Nikkei Asia Reuters Washington Examiner
Ukraine’s Zelensky Calling for South Korean Military Aid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo that he “desperately hopes” Seoul will provide Kyiv with military equipment, namely anti-aircraft and early warning systems. Zelensky said he thanked South Korea for its pledge to send demining vehicles and humanitarian aid worth around $230 million, but insisted that Ukraine needs more defensive military aid. South Korea has refused to send Ukraine lethal aid due to Russian business ties and Russia’s influence on North Korea. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said in April that this may change in the event of a large-scale Russian attack against Ukrainian civilians or a similar “situation the international community cannot condone.” Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Egypt, Turkey to Reinstate Ambassadors. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi spoke with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday after he won re-election in Turkey’s presidential run-off vote on Sunday. Egypt’s presidency said Sisi and Erdogan agreed to upgrade diplomatic relations between Cairo and Ankara, including with the reinstatement of ambassadors. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu previously said Sisi and Erdogan may meet each other soon now that the Turkish elections are over. Reuters
Libya Sentences 23 to Death for Islamic State Links. A Libyan court on Monday sentenced 23 men suspected of being Islamic State militants to death. Those who were sentenced were linked to deadly attacks linked to Islamic State that killed dozens of people. Associated Press Reuters
Bahraini Men Executed in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia executed two Bahraini men, Jaafar Sultan and Sadeq Thamer, on Monday in the largely Shiite Eastern Province of the country. They were executed for alleged links to a militant group that reportedly smuggles explosives in Saudi Arabia. Riyadh said this militant group is allegedly headed by a man wanted by Bahraini authorities. Rights groups such as Amnesty International have denounced the case against the two men for being unjust, claiming that the men, who were detained in May 2015, were denied legal representation and allegedly tortured to elicit confessions. Bahrain did not acknowledge the executions, though there were reportedly small protests in the men’s hometown of Dar Kulaib, Bahrain. Associated Press
Sub Saharan Africa
Warring Sudan Sides Agree to Extend Ceasefire. Sudan’s military and its rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have agreed on a five-day extension of a precarious ceasefire. The extension, which was negotiated by the US and Saudi Arabia, aims to facilitate further negotiations on a longer-term extension and the delivery of humanitarian aid in Sudan. The extension came after both the US and Saudi Arabia called out both warring sides for breaching previous truces. The conflict has devastated the Sudanese capital Khartoum and nearby cities and has reached a stalemate as neither side has been able to decisively win over the other. Associated Press
UN Warns Over 1 Million People to Flee Sudan. Filippo Grandi, the chief of the U.N. refugee agency, made a “conservative” estimate on Monday that by October around 1 million people may flee Sudan to escape the conflict between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The UNHCR says 350,000 people have already fled into neighboring countries such as Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan. The UN warns that the refugee crisis, coupled with the collapse of law and order, risks the circulation of weapons and the increase of human trafficking in a similar way instability in Libya impacted the Sahel. Grandi said that the conflict in Sudan “has the potential to destabilize an entire region and beyond as much as Ukraine does in Europe,” and stressed the importance of further financial aid to address the crisis. The UN has already requested $470 million to respond to the crisis, which Grandi says has only been 1% funded. Reuters
South African Judge Appointed to Investigate Alleged Supply of Weapons to Russia. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa appointed a judge to lead an investigation into allegations that South Africa supplied arms to Russia last year. The U.S. ambassador to South Africa made the allegation last month, saying that the U.S. has intelligence that shows a Russian-flagged cargo ship secretly docked at the Simon’s Town naval base near Cape Town in December last year to receive weapons and ammunition. South Africa has denied any government-sanctioned arms transfer to Moscow but has not ruled out an unofficial transaction may have occurred. The investigation into the matter will last six weeks and then report findings two weeks later. Associated Press
Kenya, Russia Expected to Sign Trade Deal. Kenyan President William Ruto hosted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Nairobi on Monday. After their meeting, Kenya’s presidency said Kenya and Russia will sign a trade pact to boost bilateral trade and business ties, though it did not say when such a deal would be signed or what it would include. Regarding Ukraine, Kenya’s presidency said it respects the territorial integrity of all countries and calls for the end of the conflict. Russia, which sells mostly agricultural products to Kenya, has been working to find new partners in Africa to counter impacts from Western sanctions over the Ukraine war. Reuters
Nigeria Swears in New President. Nigeria swore in its new president, Bola Tinubu, in a ceremony in Abuja on Monday. The former governor of Lagos will be tasked with addressing issues ranging from poverty to security concerns in Kenya, though his election is still being contested in court by opposition parties. Associated Press
U.S. Warns of Possible Sanctions Over Uganda Anti-Gay Law. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Monday that the U.S. is considering imposing visa restrictions against Ugandan officials linked to Uganda’s recent passage of anti-LGBTQ laws, which include the death penalty for “aggravated homosexuality.” President Joe Biden condemned the legislation, saying that it is a “shameful act” pointing to “human rights abuses and corruption in Uganda.” Biden added that he has asked U.S. aid projects to reassess the safety of continuing services in Uganda and has asked for a review of Uganda’s eligibility in the African Growth and Opportunity Act duty-free goods deal. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
AI Sector Executives, Researchers Call for Measures Mitigating ‘Risk of Extinction’. A group of leading AI researchers and tech firm executives released a succinct statement Tuesday warning of the “risk of extinction” that stems from unbridled development of AI technology. The 22-word statement released by the nonprofit Center for AI Safety reads in full: “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.” It was signed by more than 350 industry leaders and technologists, including AI pioneer and former Google researcher Geoffrey Hinton as well as Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis, and Dario Amodei, chief executives, respectively, of OpenAI, Google DeepMInd, and Anthropic. The three leading CEO’s met earlier in May with President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris to discuss protections and regulation concerning AI. A preface to the statement says the caution from leaders of the technology sector was prompted by the difficulty in expressing concerns “about some of advanced AI’s most severe risks.” The statement, the authors explain, intends to “open up discussion” as well as build public understanding that a “growing number of AI experts and public figures” take seriously the most severe risks arising from the technology. The executive director of the Center for AI Safety, Dan Hendrycks, described the open letter as a “coming out” statement for some sector leaders who previously expressed concerns only in private. New York Times The Verge
Chinese Spacecraft Launches Amid Lunar Goals. Lin Xiqiang, deputy director of the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA), gave rare insight into the country’s military-run space ambitions when he announced the CMSA program plans to land astronauts on the moon before 2030. Lin’s remarks came before a three-member crew, including the country’s first civilian astronaut, lifted off on the Shenzhou-16 spacecraft on Tuesday morning and later docked with China’s Tiangong space station. Lin confirmed China's goal of a “short stay on the lunar surface and human-robotic joint exploration.” Lin noted that two crewed missions per year will meet China’s objectives for the lunar mission and expansion of the Tiangong space station. The CMSA’s process of selecting and training new astronauts, Lin said, complements the country’s “complete near-earth human space station and human round-trip transportation system.” Tuesday’s Shenzhou-16 mission featured the first civilian crew member, payload specialist Gui Haichao, a professor at Beijing’s Beihang University, who joined two PLA officers aboard the spacecraft, which launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in northwest China. Gui said that he would manage the spacecraft’s payload and experiments and carry out data collection and analysis. The Tiangong space station is serving as a laboratory for cutting-edge research. The crew will remain on board until November. Lin also noted that the space program is developing reusable crewed launch vehicles and spacecraft, and added that China anticipates welcoming foreign astronauts to participate in the space station mission. Bloomberg Politico South China Morning Post Reuters
Nvidia CEO Forecasts Flourishing Future for ‘Agile’ Firms That Leverage AI Innovations. In speaking engagements over the weekend, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang forecast that every industry will be touched by AI innovations and will create employment opportunities that never existed before. In a commencement address to graduates of Taiwan’s National Technical University (NTU) on Saturday, Huang spotlighted the potential of jobs in data and safety engineering brought about by the AI revolution, adding “in every way, this is a rebirth of the computer industry. And a golden opportunity for the companies of Taiwan.” At the same time, Huang warned the graduating class that companies that lack initiative and imagination will falter: “Agile companies will take advantage of AI and boost their position. Companies less so will perish.” In a later address to the Computex conference in Taipei, Huang described generative AI as “a reinvention from the ground up.” Nvidia’s chief also used the conference to make a number of product announcements, including the DGX GH200, a supercomputer designed to build generative AI models. Huang also touted a new robotics platform he said will extend Nvidia’s presence to sectors beyond technology, citing the potential for robot use in heavy industries such as factories and warehouses. Bloomberg Financial Times
China Calls on Japan To Lift Chip Technology Export Restrictions. In the course of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference in Detroit, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao has called for Japan to ease semiconductor export controls. In a Commerce Ministry statement, Wang criticized Japan’s export restrictions, saying they “seriously violated” international trade relations. Wang met with Japanese Trade Minister Yasutoshi during the APEC conference. Acting on similar U.S chip export controls, Japan has placed restrictions on 23 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. The Chinese Commerce Ministry statement on Monday noted Beijing's willingness “to work with Japan to promote practical cooperation in key economic and trade areas." Reuters
South Korean Firm Offers ‘Tailored’ Generative AI Tool To Fit Political, Cultural Contexts. South Korea’s largest Internet search engine, Naver, is preparing to release “tailored” versions of its generative AI tool to foreign governments that are concerned about political sensitivities. Naver recently concluded a preliminary agreement with Saudi Arabia to provide AI tools to assist the country’s move to a digital economy. Naver executive Sung Nako projected that the company’s approach “will be a massive business as sovereign AI technology is becoming increasingly important for data protection.” Nako, who is responsible for developing the company’s “hyperscale AI” program, compared Naver’s generative AI export model to the construction of atomic energy plants overseas and helping host countries operate them. He noted the reluctance of some governments based on security concerns to employ U.S. AI data models and cloud services. In addition, Naver’s business model is based on the development of localized AI tools for foreign customers who are eager to emphasize particular language contexts rather than the universal AI models developed by Google and Microsoft. Some experts have expressed reservations about Naver’s approach, noting that developing country-specific models require substantial funding and human resources that may be beyond Naver’s capabilities. Financial Times
AUKUS Experiment Tests Collaborative Control of AI-Enabled Drones. Military and civilian representatives of Australia, Britain, and the U.S. recently participated in trials of collaborative drone operations. The exercise delivered several “world firsts,” including operations in which various teams directed each others’ AI-enabled uncrewed platforms, followed by evaluations. The AUKUS Advanced Capabilities Pillar program is dedicated to developing joint AI, quantum, cyber, and hypersonic technologies. A senior U.S. adviser described the April demonstration as “truly a shared effort.” The field operations brought together a variety of weapons systems, including Blue Bear Ghost and Insitu CT220 drones, Challenger 2 main battle tanks and Warrior armored vehicles, and Viking uncrewed ground vehicles. A UK Defense Ministry statement noted that sharing AI and related technologies allows the partner militaries to enhance interoperability and save time and money. C4ISRNet
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