Report for Thursday, February 29, 2024

THE TOP STORIES

As Ramadan approaches, all sides play for advantage

U.S. Intelligence Warns of Potential Israeli incursion into Lebanon

Ukraine’s allies lock horns over using frozen Russian assets to aid Kyiv

Putin warns of nuclear conflict with Western intervention in Ukraine

Biden, Trump to visit Texas to raise immigration issues

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION — Ground Truth: The Disconnect, Context and Challenges of Israel’s War Against Hamas

CIPHER BRIEF SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — Republicans Offer Kyiv Reassurance on Aid Package. Do they Know Something We Don’t?

THE ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

As Ramadan approaches, all sides play for advantage.  Israeli leaders have said they will launch a ground offensive into Rafah if a deal isn’t reached by Ramadan, around March 10. The White House is pressing Israel not to escalate the conflict during the Muslim holy month. Meanwhile, Hamas leaders are trying to mobilize public opinion against Israel. On Wednesday, Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s political bureau, called on Palestinians to mark the first day of Ramadan by protesting outside the Al Aqsa Mosque, located on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount and Islam’s third holiest site, after Mecca and Medina. Israeli officials fear that Hamas will use the protests to draw Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah into the battle during Ramadan. “Hamas’s overarching goal at this moment is to cause the Temple Mount to catch fire,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday. U.S. and Arab negotiators are pressing Israel and Hamas to make an interim deal to pause fighting long enough to release some hostages and get more aid deliveries into Gaza.  White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Tuesday that negotiators weren’t “trying to beat the clock to Ramadan,” but no one is ignoring the consequential date.  Wall Street Journal Reuters

Is a Gaza truce close? Yes. Maybe. But but but … “God willing, in the next few days, we will reach a cease-fire agreement” to bring “real relief” to the people of Gaza, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt said at an event in Cairo Wednesday. President Biden also predicted a deal as soon as next week. However, Hamas and Israel are not on board yet. How much of their resistance is a negotiating position is hard to gauge from the outside. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh said in a televised speech that the group was open to talks with Israel, but that “any flexibility we show in the negotiation process is a commitment to protecting the blood of our people, matched by a readiness to defend them.” In a news conference Wednesday night, Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said, referring to Biden’s prediction of an imminent deal, “I really hope he’s right.” Israel has offered to release 15 Palestinians jailed on serious terrorism charges in exchange for five female Israeli soldiers held hostage, the New York Times reported.  Hamas spokesman Basem Naim told the Times Tuesday that the group had not  received “any new proposals” since the Paris meeting.  But the right people appear to be talking, to some extent. The Times reported that an Israeli delegation, including representatives from Mossad and the Israeli Defense Forces,  traveled to Qatar this week to discuss details. Families of Israeli hostages started on a four-day march to Jerusalem on Wednesday, demanding that “no one should be left behind” in Gaza.  New York Times Washington Post AP News

U.S. Intelligence warns of potential Israeli incursion into Lebanon. The Biden administration and U.S. intelligence officials are concerned about a potential Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon in late spring or early summer if diplomatic efforts fail to curb Hezbollah's activities along the border. Israeli strikes into Lebanon and retaliation by Hezbollah have displaced thousands, prompting fears of escalation. The US is mediating discussions for a ceasefire in Gaza and negotiating a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to deter an Israeli incursion. While some Israeli officials view an incursion as necessary, others see it as a negotiating tactic. Israel's recent airstrikes suggest a possible escalation, prompting alarm from US intelligence. Special envoy Amos Hochstein is leading diplomatic efforts to prevent conflict, emphasizing the importance of a diplomatic solution to mitigate the risk of military action.  CNN

Gaza Health Ministry reports death toll over 30,000.  Gaza’s Health Ministry reported on Thursday that over 30,000 Palestinians have been killed in the enclave since the start of the war. The figure suggests one person for every 73 Palestinians in Gaza has been killed. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its reporting, so it is unclear how many Hamas-affiliated fighters have been killed.  New York Times Washington Post 

Israel must provide written assurances of lawful use of U.S. weapons.  The Biden administration is giving Israel until mid-March to sign a letter formally providing “credible and reliable written assurances" that Israel will abide by international law when using U.S. weapons and will allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, Axios reported Wednesday, based on three U.S. and Israeli officials. The assurances are required under a Feb. 8 national security memorandum by President Joe Biden. If Israel doesn’t provide the requisite letter by the deadline, U.S. weapon transfers to the country will be paused.  Biden issued the memorandum to head off a move by Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and several other senators who wanted to add an amendment to the Senate supplemental funding bill that would restrict U.S. weapons aid for Israel.  Democratic leaders feared that putting the Van Hollen amendment before Congress would deepen divisions in their party, already torn by the horrific scenes coming out of Gaza. They preferred fast executive action. “We did it to make sure we have an accountability structure and that U.S. security assistance aligns with both our values and our interests," Van Hollen said.  Axios

Food aid reaches devastated north Gaza.  Aid convoys delivering food reached northern Gaza this week, Israeli officials said on Wednesday, marking the first major delivery in a month.  A convoy of 31 trucks delivering food reached northern Gaza on Wednesday, the Israeli military office that oversees Palestinian civilian affairs said. The office said nearly 20 other trucks entered the north on Monday and Tuesday.  More than 576,000 people in Gaza – a quarter of the enclave’s population – are close to famine, the U.N. says. Northern Gaza, populated by several hundred thousand Palestinians, has been pummeled relentlessly since Israeli ground troops invaded in late October.  The U.N. says one in 6 children under 2 in the north suffer from acute malnutrition and wasting.  Associated Press

Canada planning to airdrop aid to Gaza Strip, joining with Jordan, others.  Canada will airdrop humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip as soon as possible, a cabinet minister said Wednesday.  Canadian International Development Minister Ahmed, visiting the Rafah border crossing, said Ottawa was exploring new options to deliver aid, possibly in partnership with like-minded Middle Eastern countries such as Jordan.  Canada has put $100 million Canadian ($74 million) toward aid for Gaza since the start of the conflict.  The White House, anxious to ease civilian suffering, has asked the Pentagon to look at airdropping aid into Gaza.  Associated Press  

Former Israeli PM Olmert savages Netanyahu for “blood-soaked” policies.  Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right ministers of driving Israel toward “all-out war.”  In a podcast posted by the Israeli news outlet Haaretz on Wednesday, Olmert said the Gaza war is only the beginning, and Netanyahu’s allies, who he called a “bunch of messianic hallucinators,” are aiming for "Armageddon, that will make it possible to expel many of the Palestinians in the West Bank." He charged that some Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank were engaged in lawless vigilante killings, saying most Palestinians killed there “were killed not necessarily for good reasons, and not by qualified Israeli security forces, but by volunteers - such as the hilltop youth."  Olmert’s remarks followed an op-ed piece he wrote for Haaretz, in which he suggested that Netanyahu and his allies were seeking “all-out war” and perpetrating ethnic cleansing. “The ultimate aim of this gang is ‘purging’ the West Bank of its Palestinian inhabitants, cleansing the Temple Mount of its Muslim worshippers and annexing the territories to the state of Israel,” Olmert wrote. “The way to achieve this goal is blood-soaked. Israeli blood, in the state and in the territories it has been controlling for 57 years now, as well as Jewish blood in places elsewhere in the world. As well as a lot of Palestinian blood, of course, in the territories, in Jerusalem, and if there is no alternative – also among Arab citizens of Israel.”   Olmert even questioned Netanyahu’s mental fitness.  "A nervous breakdown is the only way to interpret the way he behaves," he said on the podcast. "I don't know that he suffered a nervous breakdown - I don't have any medical evidence to prove this. But I have brains. I have eyes. I understand what I see. And what I see is the behavior of someone who has gone through a dramatic nervous breakdown. And most likely, he still hasn't recovered from it."  Haaretz Haaretz  

New Zealand takes action against Hamas, 'extremist' Israeli settlers.  New Zealand on Thursday listed Hamas as a terrorist group. "New Zealand wants to be clear that the designation of Hamas is about the actions of an offshore terrorist entity and is not a reflection on the Palestinian people in Gaza and around the world," Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said. New Zealand also imposed travel bans on "extremist" Israeli settlers who committed violent attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank. Reuters

Syrian state media says Israeli strikes intercepted near Damascus.  Syrian state media reported that Syrian air defenses intercepted Israeli strikes near Damascus. It said the attacks caused “material losses,” without elaborating further. Pro-Iranian Lebanese TV al Maydeen reported that a large explosion was heard in the heavily fortified Sayeda Zainab neighborhood of southern Damascus. Regional intelligence sources say Iran’s Quds Force has a strong presence in the neighborhood, which also hosts underground bases of Iran-backed militias.  Reuters Times of Israel

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERT OPINION — Ground Truth: The Disconnect, Context and Challenges of Israel’s War Against Hamas. Cipher Brief Expert Geoffrey Corn shares insights from a series of recent high-level meetings in Israel on the war against Hamas. The Cipher Brief

THE RED SEA

German warship in E.U. Red Sea mission downs two drones.  The German navy frigate Hessen, which is part of the E.U. mission protecting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, downed two drones on Tuesday.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine sees risk of Russia breaking through defenses by summer. Ukrainian officials are expressing concern over the potential acceleration of Russian advances by summer.  Depending on the ongoing ground campaign's outcome, Russia may decide between a gradual advance or accumulating resources for a significant summer offensive to breach Ukrainian lines, according to a source close to Ukraine's leadership. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi acknowledged mistakes by frontline commanders that have led to recent Russian advances, namely in and around Avdiivka. Mounting pessimism among Ukraine and its allies, coupled with delayed U.S. aid in Congress, raises fears about the sustainability of Kyiv's defenses. Bloomberg

Ukraine downs another Russian Su-34. Ukrainian forces shot down another Su-34 attack plane, the Air Force reported on Thursday, adding another jet to the list of reported Russian aircraft losses in recent days. The Su-34 was downed at 1 a.m. local time, the Air Force said. Russia has lost seven Su-34 aircraft in the last 10 days, according to the Air Force. The destruction of the jet is the latest in a recent uptick of downed Russian planes, including two A-50 early warning and control aircraft earlier this year. Kyiv Independent

Russia bombing in northeastern Ukraine kills four civilians.  Russian bombing in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region killed four civilians on Wednesday, according to regional officials and the interior ministry.  Russia used FAB-500 bombs in the attack, which hit in and around the frontline city of Kupiansk. Reuters

Ukraine needs $3 billion in external financial aid per month in 2024. To cover a projected budget gap of $37 billion in 2024, Ukraine said it urgently needs the U.S. Congress to approve a $61 billion aid package, now stuck in the House of Representatives because of Republican opposition. The European Union has approved a four-year, $54 billion combination of grants and loans, but it won’t be enough. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said that, to raise revenue, the government is becoming more active on the domestic debt market. Senior executives of several of the largest state-owned enterprises told Reuters they have paid some of their financial obligations in advance. Reuters

Ukraine’s allies lock horns over using frozen Russian assets to aid Kyiv. The EU should use profits from over $200 billion of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's war effort, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday.  At this week’s meeting of G7 finance officials in Sao Paulo, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen took the same position, arguing that there is a strong basis in international law to use Russian assets as collateral or by seizure. But some E.U. countries strongly disagree, for fear of disrupting financial markets.  French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said Wednesday France did not believe international law would allow such an action. Germany also expressed doubts. Belgium is holding most of the Russian state assets frozen in the EU when Ukraine was invaded. It  is reluctant to use those funds for Ukrainian reconstruction without agreement from the rest of the G7. The EU is expected to propose a plan to use the profits to support Ukraine in mid-March, Politico reported.   New York Times  Politico Reuters Reuters 

Ukraine's Zelensky seeks joint arms production at summit in Albania. President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed a Ukraine-Balkans defense forum to boost joint production of arms. Ukraine conducted such forums with the United States and the United Kingdom last year. Zelensky’s remarks came during a two-day summit this week in Tirana, the capital of Albania, with participation of 11 countries that also included Bulgaria, Serbia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Montenegro, Croatia, Moldova and Romania. “We are interested in co-production with you and all our partners," Zelenskiy said. “There are about 500 defense companies operating in Ukraine, each of them adds strength but it is not enough to win (against Russian President Vladimir) Putin. We see the problems with the supply of ammunition, which affects the situation on the battlefield." Reuters Associated Press

Ukraine creating ‘Frankenguns’ amid struggle for spare parts to repair weapons.  Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in maintaining Western-supplied military equipment. As future U.S. military aid remains uncertain, Ukraine is not guaranteed a steady flow of spare parts from the West. Ukraine is also operating various weapons systems whose components are not always interchangeable. These issues are forcing Ukraine to cannibalize parts from other weapons and even pay for or create the parts themselves for repairs. Another key issue is that it takes time to bring damaged military equipment to repair facilities, some of which are outside of Ukraine. To help address this, some foreign arms companies plan to move repair operations closer to or within Ukraine.  Wall Street Journal 

Kyiv charges key Ukrainian arms procurement figure with corruption. Serhiy Pashinsky, a prominent Ukrainian businessman, former politician and key figure in Kyiv’s efforts to procure weapons to fight Russia, was arrested on corruption charges earlier this month, the New York Times reported Wednesday. TheTimes reported last year that Ukrainian Armored Technology, a company associated with Pashinsky, was the biggest private arms supplier in Ukraine and was under investigation. Recently, Ukrainian prosecutors have charged Pashinsky and five other men of an illegal fuel-buying business that allegedly defrauded the Kyiv government out of about $25 million before the war. Pashinsky denied the charges. Ukraine’s High Anti-Corruption Court set bail of more than $7 million for Pashinsky. He said in a Facebook post that the bail had been posted by companies from an arms industry trade group he heads. New York Times 

Lithuania allocates $353,000 to support Ukrainian refugees. Lithuania, one of the largest providers of aid to Ukraine per capita, has earmarked $353,000 in fresh assistance to Ukrainian refugees in the Baltic nation. Combined with its share of the E.U. budget, Lithuania has given 2 percent of its gross domestic product to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s 2022 invasion – amounting to $1.1 billion. Kyiv Independent

Putin warns of nuclear conflict with Western intervention in Ukraine.  In his annual parliamentary address, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of a heightened risk of global war, accusing the West of increasing the risk of nuclear conflict by supporting Ukraine. He referenced French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments about the possibility of NATO troops in Ukraine, framing it as direct conflict with Russia and warning that Moscow will counter those who act against it. Putin also reiterated Russia’s intent to “root out Nazism” in Ukraine, signaling that he is not likely to dial down his war on Ukraine any time soon. Putin used most of his address to cover domestic issues, but he linked them all to the success of his invasion of Ukraine.  New York Times Wall Street Journal 

Putin allies warn against French troops deploying to Ukraine.  Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of Russia’s State Duma and a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, described French President Emmanuel Macron leaving open the possibility of European nations sending troops to Ukraine as a suggestion to start a “third world war.” Volodin also warned that any French forces sent to Ukraine will meet the same fate as the hundreds of thousands of Napoleon Bonaparte’s men who died in his failed invasion of Russia.  Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, likewise alluded to Bonaparte, saying Macron’s comments show flawed Western political thinking seeking “revenge with Napoleonic magnitude.” In response to Macron’s comments, several Western countries, including the U.S. and Britain, said they have no plans to send troops to Ukraine, which a Russian foreign ministry spokesperson acknowledged as a sign that they “understand the danger” of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.  Reuters

Polish PM Tusk to meet protesting farmers on Thursday. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he will meet with leaders of all protesting agricultural groups on Thursday, a day after Ukrainian and Polish officials met in an attempt to resolve opposition from Polish farmers to grain imports from Ukraine. "We have a very important problem. We are the most pro-Ukrainian nation when it comes to aid, but we have the biggest problems in Europe resulting from the war," Tusk said.  Reuters

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

CIPHER BRIEF SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE REPORTING — Republicans Offer Kyiv Reassurance on Aid Package. Do they Know Something We Don’t?  Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told an interviewer on his most recent trip to Kyiv that he believes the U.S. will approve a new $60 billion aid package for Ukraine. This counters the fact that the package is currently being held up by some Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives — at the urging of former President Donald Trump. So, what are we missing?  The Cipher Brief

McConnell to step down as Senate GOP leader in November.  Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is stepping down from his leadership position in November. He will continue to serve the remainder of his term, which ends in January 2027. He is the longest-serving Senate party leader in history.  Reuters Associated Press The Hill Politico Bloomberg Wall Street Journal

European parliament leaders urge Johnson to act on Ukraine aid.  The leaders of 23 European parliaments wrote an open letter urging U.S. Speaker Mike Johnson to take up the Senate-passed bill for additional aid for Ukraine. Johnson has not committed to bringing the measure up for a vote. Johnson’s office responded to the letter by saying that “while Speaker Johnson believes we must confront Putin, and is exploring steps to effectively do so, as he said at the White House, his immediate priority is funding America’s government and avoiding a government shutdown.”  Politico 

Silicon Valley seeks to enter U.S. race for hypersonics.  Venture capitalists in Silicon Valley are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into hypersonic missile technology development to help the U.S. military catch up with China and Russia. Venture capitalists have invested over $500 million into startups working on the technology over the past two years, viewing hypersonics as a lucrative market due to the Pentagon’s interest. Startups say the private capital and cutting-edge engineering they bring will lower costs on development. While many are still years away from a finished product, the U.S. military has not made much further progress on its own after spending billions over decades. A Defense Department spokesperson said the Pentagon is on schedule to field some hypersonic capabilities by mid-decade.  He noted that the DoD is working on hypersonic testing and manufacturing with 15 venture-backed startups. Obstacles to startups entering the sector include established companies like RTX and Lockheed Martin being favored to win the largest hypersonic contracts, as well as the slow procurement process.  Wall Street Journal 

Canada fired two scientists for sharing information with Beijing, says paper. In 2021, Canada dismissed two scientists employed at a highly secure infectious disease laboratory for sharing confidential information with China, as reported on Wednesday. The decision in 2021, deemed necessary to safeguard Canada's security, followed a detailed examination of evidence, including documents released by the government after persistent demands from opposition lawmakers. Despite claims from Health Minister Mark Holland that there was no compromise to national security, concerns persist over the breach, exacerbated by the ongoing investigation into alleged Chinese interference in Canadian affairs.  Reuters ABC South China Morning Post Associated Press

Biden, Trump to visit Texas to raise immigration issues.  President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are both visiting the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas on Thursday to highlight immigration issues. Biden, in Brownsville, will argue that Republicans in Congress thwarted a bipartisan border security deal on Trump's orders. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden would meet with U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials, law enforcement officials, frontline personnel and local leaders. Trump, in Eagle Pass, will argue against Biden's approach, which has combined border crackdowns with efforts to establish legal pathways for migrants. Trump is expected to announce updated immigration proposals, including reviving and expanding a travel ban, imposing “ideological screening” for migrants, terminating work permits, and cutting off funding for shelter and transportation for illegal migrants.  Associated Press(Read The Border Crisis and National Security: What Needs to Be Done? in The Cipher Brief)

Police from US, Mexico, Guatemala to collaborate on border security. The U.S, Mexico, and Guatemala announced the establishment of a trilateral working group emphasizing security, law enforcement, and border infrastructure, according to a joint statement on Wednesday. The collaboration between police authorities from these nations aims to identify security gaps, facilitate information exchange, and formulate operational strategies for addressing border security.  Reuters

Mexico says Canada will reinstate some visa requirements for Mexicans. Mexico announced that Canada would reimpose certain visa requirements for Mexican citizens starting Thursday. Ottawa’s decision aims to stem the migratory influx of asylum seekers. A number of Canadian government officials including Quebec Premier Francois Legault voiced concern in previous months about asylum seekers arriving by plane, overwhelming Canadian immigration processing systems.  Reuters Associated Press

UN appeals for $674 million for Haiti aid.  The U.N. has launched a humanitarian appeal seeking $674 million to aid Haiti, a figure lower than the previous year's appeal despite higher needs, indicating a concerted effort to streamline aid distribution to maximize impact through collaboration with local organizations. U.N. Humanitarian Coordinator, Ulrika Richardson, said the need for aid is dire, highlighting that 5.5 million Haitians require assistance and 4.4 million facing severe food insecurity. She added that violence in Haiti is increasing, including sexual violence by armed gangs, and that there has been a significant increase in displaced persons.  Associated Press 

Caribbean leaders say Haitian PM agrees to hold elections by mid-2025.  Caribbean leaders at a CARICOM summit in Guyana announced that Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry has agreed to hold general elections by mid-2025. The deteriorating security, humanitarian, and political situation in Haiti has hindered the prospect of free and fair elections. Antigua and Barbuda Prime Minister Gaston Browne told reporters that Henry committed to serve as an honest broker and to share power. The U.S., Canada, and the United Nations will form an assessment team to assist Haiti in preparing for the vote.  Associated Press Barron's

U.S. sentences Florida resident for smuggling guns to Haitian gang that kidnapped Americans.  The U.S. Justice Department announced that Jocelyn Dor, a Haitian citizen who resided in Orlando, Florida, was sentenced by a U.S. District Court to five years in prison and an additional three years of supervised release for participating in a sophisticated smuggling scheme that exported or attempted to export at least 24 firearms and hundreds of rounds of ammunition to Haiti’s 400 Mawozo gang. The gang gained notoriety when it kidnapped U.S. and Canadian missionaries in 2021, and has been implicated in numerous other kidnappings in Haiti. The sentencing comes amid U.S. efforts to curb firearms trafficking to Haiti amid escalating violence.  U.S. Department of Justice  Reuters 

Brazil’s Lula seeks renewed diplomatic presence in the Caribbean. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he wanted Brazil to reestablish diplomatic representation in Caribbean nations. Speaking during the Caribbean Community Summit in Georgetown, Guyana, Lula highlighted Brazil's commitment to the region and pledged a contribution to the Caribbean Development Bank. Lula added that building connections between Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, and Venezuela will be a policy priority.  Reuters

Venezuela flouts U.S.-brokered deal on elections.  Venezuela has set new conditions for elections this year, defying a U.S.-brokered Barbados agreement between the government and the opposition coalition, the Unitary Platform, and risking the re-imposition of tougher U.S. sanctions. The changes could advance the voting date, which the government had agreed would not be until the second half of the year, to as early as April, giving international election monitors less time to prepare. The announcement comes amid increased repression of the opposition, including the banning of opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado from taking part in the election.  Bloomberg

Five suspects in killing of Ecuadorean candidate to go on trial.  Ecuador’s attorney general’s office said that five suspects accused of involvement in the assassination of Ecuadorian anti-corruption presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in August will go to trial. An investigation of the reasons behind the assassination is ongoing. The suspects include two alleged leaders of factions within the Los Lobos gang, which President Daniel Noboa has declared a terrorist group. The prosecution alleges one suspect ordered the assassination from prison.  Reuters Associated Press

Asia and Oceania

Philippines’ Marcos emphasizes sovereignty and like-minded partners during Australia visit.  Philippine President Marcos Jr. addressed Australia’s Parliament on Thursday, when he vowed that no foreign power will “take even one square inch of our territory” and underscored the importance of the strategic partnership between Manila and Canberra.  His comments refer to China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea, which Australia and the Philippines are trying to counter in part by bolstering cooperation, which was demonstrated in their first joint sea and air patrols in the waterway in November.  Associated Press Reuters

Australia invites China's Wang Yi to visit next month. Australia extended an invitation to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to visit Australia in late March. The visit is expected to focus on addressing bilateral trade issues, Australia's AUKUS security alliance with the U.S. and U.K., a newly established science and technology agreement, and the sentencing of Australian writer Yang Hengjun. This visit would mark Wang's first trip to Australia since 2017, following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's visit to China in November, which contributed to a reduction in tensions between the two nations.  Reuters

Australian spy chief urged to name ex-politician who 'sold out.’ Australia's spy chief, Mike Burgess, is facing mounting pressure to disclose the identity of a former politician accused of collaborating with a foreign intelligence service. In his annual speech, Burgess, the director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), revealed a counterintelligence threat from an undisclosed country that had recruited the unnamed politician several years ago. The politician was reportedly lured by a foreign regime to a fake overseas conference designed to extract classified information from high-profile attendees. Burgess warned that the case demonstrates an elevated threat of foreign interference.  Reuters Bloomberg Reuters The Guardian BBC 

U.K. criticizes Hong Kong security law.  British Foreign Secretary David Cameron criticized Hong Kong's new security legislation, asserting that it violates international obligations like the U.K.-China handover deal. Cameron expressed concerns about the legislation restricting freedom of speech, press, and expression; lack of judicial oversight and clarity on procedures for detention without charge; and the potential labeling of international organizations' work as "foreign interference." Hong Kong officials say the proposed legislation covers offenses like treason, sedition, foreign interference, and other acts that endanger national security. This law supplements Beijing's 2020 national security law.  Bloomberg

Singapore to acquire eight F-35A jets.  Singapore is acquiring eight F-35A fighter jets made by Lockheed Martin Corp, to be delivered around 2030. Singapore’s Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen told parliament that the price of F-35s is “now more competitive,” so the city-state should take the opportunity to acquire more to expand its fleet. The purchases will be part of Singapore’s S$20.2 billion ($15 billion) defense budget for fiscal year 2024, an increase of 2.5% from the previous year.  Bloomberg

South Korea's President Yoon meets Meta's Zuckerberg. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol engaged in discussions with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg on Thursday to explore avenues for enhanced collaboration in artificial intelligence and digital ecosystems. Yoon expressed support for business partnerships and advocated for increased collaboration in emerging areas such as the metaverse and extended reality headsets. Yoon also urged Meta to actively combat fake news and other malpractices on its platforms, particularly as several countries prepare for elections this year.  Reuters

Europe

Russia's parliament approves bill banning advertising on websites of 'foreign agents'. Russia’s rubber-stamp lower house of parliament, the State Duma, has advanced legislation that bans advertising on publications run by “foreign agents,” a label that authorities have applied to anti-Kremlin politicians, activists and media.  Reuters

Soviet ex-premier Nikolai Ryzhkov dies at 94. Russian officials announced the death of Nikolai Ryzhkov, a former Soviet prime minister, on Wednesday. Ryzhkov was a supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin and served as a member of the Federation Council, the Kremlin-controlled upper house of parliament, until October. Quickly after coming to power in 1985, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev appointed Ryzhkov as prime minister in charge of “perestroika,” the reforms meant to modernize and revive a failing centralized economy. Ryzhkov, however, “failed to adapt to the quickly changing economic and political environment, setting the stage for the 1991 Soviet collapse,” the AP writes in his obituary. Associated Press  

Moldova’s breakaway region asks Russia for protection.  Transnistria, a breakaway region of Moldova, has called for Moscow's aid against perceived economic coercion by the Moldovan government. Moldova's decision to impose import duties on Transdniestrian firms triggered the plea for help, which was expressed at a congress in the region’s capital of Tiraspol. While there are some concerns over the parallels between the situation and the events preceding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is no indication of an imminent referendum in the territory on joining the Russian Federation. Moldovan President Maia Sandu has called for a peaceful resolution, and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry reiterated its call for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transdniestria. A U.S. State Department spokesperson said Washington “firmly supports” Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it seeks to protect Transdniestria’s citizens and that it will review the request for help.  Reuters New York Times Bloomberg Associated Press Kyiv Independent 

Belarusian exiles plot coup against Lukashenko.  The Poland-based Belarusian partisan resistance group BYPOL is reportedly planning a coup to oust Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Aliaksandr Azarau, a senior figure in BYPOL, said the group will launch the coup d’etat “at the right time” and that it has been training officers and actively sabotaging Russia’s war on Ukraine in preparation. Azarau noted that targeting Russia and ensuring it loses in Ukraine will help weaken Lukahsenko’s regime. “Without Putin, there is no Lukashenko,” he said. “If Ukraine can launch a successful offensive, Putin will no longer have time for Belarus.”  Politico 

Von der Leyen calls for new defense industry strategy centered on locally made arms.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament that the E.U. must boost defense spending and increase local weapons production amid threats from Russia and concerns about U.S. disengagement. “At the heart of this must be a simple principle: Europe must spend more, spend better, spend European,” she said. Von der Leyen said she supports the creation of the position of defense commissioner for the bloc. The EU has no army, and its member countries insist on sovereign control over their own armed forces.  Associated Press Washington Post

Traces of toxic gas found during evacuation of Swedish security agency. Traces of a hazardous, odorless gas were discovered at Sweden's security agency headquarters on Friday, prompting the evacuation of approximately 500 individuals from the premises due to suspected gas leakage, as reported by the local newspaper Svenska Dagbladet on Wednesday. Eight individuals were hospitalized after the evacuation, though there were no reports of severe injuries. The Swedish government has yet to release an official statement.  Associated Press 

Middle East

Many in Iran are frustrated by unrest and poor economy as parliament elections take place.  Turnout in Iran’s March 1 parliamentary elections may be less than a third of voters.  Over 15,000 candidates are vying for a seat in the 290-member parliament, formally known as the Islamic Consultative Assembly. Calls for an election boycott have spread in recent weeks, including from imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi, a women’s right activist, who called them a “sham” by the repressive theocracy in Tehran. Economic woes may also keep voters away. Inflation is reportedly at around 50 percent, with unemployment around 20% for young Iranians.  Associated Press

Africa

Two months matter a lot in Senegal.  Opposition leaders in Senegal have rejected a proposal by the national dialogue commission to hold the presidential election on June 2, insisting the vote must take place no later than April 2, when President Macky Sall’s term ends. “I hope that the Constitutional Council will remind him of the law and that ultimately President Macky Sall will organize the polls before leaving,” said former Prime Minister Aminata Toure, a leading opposition member in the West African nation. Bloomberg

Jihadist attacks displace thousands in northern Mozambique.  Attacks by the Islamic State in Mozambique have displaced more than 70,000 people since Dec. 22. The jihadists are targeting northern Cabo Delgado province, which has faced such violence for six years. Attacks include a deadly skirmish on Feb. 9 that reportedly claimed the lives of up to 25 Mozambique soldiers, a blow to government efforts to quell violence during an election year in the southeastern African nation of 32 million people. "The insurgency is not near its end and the normalization narrative is driven by economic interests and not by realities in Cabo Delgado," Jasmine Opperman, an extremism expert, told Reuters. "This is about organized chaos to create fear, to recruit and spread an Islamic extremism narrative."  Since July 2021, troops from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community have been deployed in support of the Mozambican army.  Reuters Africanews

U.S. to U.N.: Do something to end Sudan war. The U.S. is pressing the U.N. Security Council for action – without specifying what action – to end the nearly year-old civil war in Sudan. The fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has triggered a massive humanitarian crisis, besides killing at least 15,000 people. The U.N.says that nearly 25 million – half of Sudan’s population –  need aid and that eight million have fled their homes. "It is clear that this is an urgent matter of peace and security that demands greater attention from the Security Council," U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield told Reuters in a statement. "The council must act urgently to alleviate human suffering, hold perpetrators to account, and bring the conflict in Sudan to an end. Time is running out.” Reuters

U.N. hands over 1st military base in Congo to begin drawdown. Amid escalating violence in eastern Congo, U.N. peacekeepers initiated the first phase of their withdrawal by handing over their military base in Kamanyola, South Kivu province, to Congo’s national police on Wednesday. This handover marks a significant step in the phased drawdown of U.N. peacekeeping forces as per the agreement reached between the Congolese government and the U.N. last year.  Associated Press

Violence increases in Chad. Multiple shooting incidents and violent outbreaks occurred in Chad's capital, N'Djamena on Wednesday near Chad's internal security agency. This escalation of violence occurs amid mounting tensions ahead of Chad's upcoming presidential election scheduled for May and June, potentially marking a transition back to constitutional governance after years of military rule. The government has attributed Wednesday's attack to the opposition Socialist Party Without Borders (PSF). Security forces have since encircled the PSF headquarters. The government said on Tuesday that the presidential election is scheduled for May 6th.  Reuters Reuters  Al Jazeera Associated Press

Burundi detains dozens of soldiers who refused deployment in fight against M23 rebels in Congo. Multiple sources have reported that numerous Burundian soldiers were arrested for refusing deployment to eastern Congo to combat the advancing M23 rebel group. The dissenting troops are reportedly being detained in various prisons across Burundi. The escalation of clashes between the M23 rebels and Congolese forces near the border with Rwanda has heightened tensions.  Associated Press

ICC orders record $56 million compensation for Uganda victims. Nearly 50,000 victims of Ugandan militia commander Dominic Ongwen should get $56 million in compensation, International Criminal Court judges ruled on Feb. 28, a symbolic yet possibly uncollectable sum of $812 per person. Ongwen is serving a 25-year sentence in Norway after his 2021 conviction for offenses including murders, rapes, forced marriages and recruitment of child soldiers from 2002-2005. Ongwen was part of the Lord’s Resistance Army, led by fugitive Joseph Kony. The LRA terrorized Ugandans for nearly 20 years in their challenge to President Yoweri Museveni in the landlocked East Africa nation. The militia has been largely wiped out. Judges at The Hague ruled that Ongwen, recruited as a child soldier at the age of 9, is indigent and said the reparations will be paid by a trust fund for victims set up by the court’s member states.Reuters Associated Press

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

More details on Biden executive order blocking data transfers to adversary nations.  In an effort to regulate the data broker industry, the latest executive order (EO) issued by President Joe Biden on Wednesday prevents U.S. companies and individuals from selling specified large datasets to China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela.  National security officials are concerned that the sale of personal data to adversary nations could be used in blackmail or surveillance operations.  The Justice Department will be required to develop regulations that block U.S. entities from selling genomic, biometric, health, location, and financial data.  The EO also specifies three types of restricted data transactions that can be conducted with safeguards in place.  The new order does not restrict collecting and selling data domestically and intelligence agencies are not prohibited from accessing commercially available sources.  Two rounds of public comment will be conducted before the EO goes into effect.  White House officials confirmed that the EO does not apply to data transfers within multinational companies and will include exceptions for things like payroll operations.  CyberScoop NextGov Washington Post Wall Street Journal The Record Reuters 

Iran cyberespionage unit uses fake website to extract user credentials, spread malware.  An Iranian cyberespionage unit with probable ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is masquerading as major companies in a social engineering and phishing campaign aimed at the aerospace, aviation, and industry sectors in the Middle East.  Impersonating firms such as Boeing and DJI, the Chinese drone manufacturer, the hacking group has set up a fake website featuring the theme of freeing hostages held by Hamas.  The website hosts compromised linkages designed to harvest user credentials or to deploy backdoor malware.  Primary targets are located in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Mandiant tracks the unit conducting the campaign as UNC1549 with the infrastructure described by Mandiant bearing similarities to the hacking groups dubbed as Tortoiseshell and Imperial Kitten.  Phony job offers from major multinational companies that are distributed by phishing emails also are part of the campaign.  CyberScoop Cybernews

Federal agencies issue warning to healthcare sector on ALPHV Blackcat ransomware attacks.  A joint advisory issued on Wednesday by the FBI, CISA, and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) warned that healthcare facilities are being targeted for ALPHV Blackcat ransomware attacks.  The agency statement pointed out that the healthcare sector has been the most frequently victimized among nearly 70 ransomware targets.  They said this frequency likely stems from “the ALPHV Blackcat administrator's post encouraging its affiliates to target hospitals” in the wake of law enforcement operations against the group in December.  The advisory encouraged critical infrastructure organizations to take mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood and impact of data extortion attacks.  Hospitals and other medical facilities are being advised to adopt cybersecurity defenses against the most common tactics and techniques used by threat actors against organizations in this sector.  BleepingComputer

FBI, DHS officials say AI offers ‘precarious’ advantage to cybersecurity defenders.  Cybersecurity experts speaking at the Trelilix Cybersecurity Summit on Tuesday discussed whether large language models and other AI applications favor defenders or attackers, with two Federal officials saying the temporary advantage goes to defenders.  Cynthia Kaiser, deputy assistant director for the FBI’s cyber division, said that currently AI affords more cybersecurity benefits while adding it is“a precarious balance, and something we at the FBI are not taking for granted.”  Kaiser pointed to ways AI is being used for more efficient defenses, including the detection of malicious activity on targeted networks.  Rob Silvers, the undersecretary for strategy, policy and plans at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), agreed with that assessment and said he had seen defensive efforts that made better use of generative AI.  Both the FBI and DHS officials said their judgments are tentative, and that circumstances could shift in the other direction.  Kaiser noted that it is becoming easier for foreign threat actors to mask their presence in targeted networks and to cloud their origins.  She said that generative AI may not totally disrupt cybersecurity defenses, but that the technology is easing the path for hackers working on behalf of adversary states to breach targeted systems.  CyberScoop

Australian security agency offers annual assessment, highlighting key adversary threats.  Mike Burgess, the head of the Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO), offered the agency’s annual threat assessment on Wednesday, noting that Australians are “being targeted for espionage and foreign interference more than ever before.”  Describing the threat as “deeper and broader than you might think,” Burgess pointed to an unnamed adversary “with a particular focus on Australia – we are its priority target.”  Referring to the “A team” operations of this opponent, Burgess said that several leading Australian academics and political figures were invited to an all-expenses paid conference to meet representatives of the foreign government.  The conference, Burgess said, actually was an espionage front for operatives to nurture relationships with the Australian participants.  “We helped the unaware ones extract themselves,” Burgess recalled, “and severed the links between the others and the foreign intelligence service.  He said ASIO contacted the adversary A-team directly, manipulating its leader into thinking he was grooming an Australian online when his contact was in fact an ASIO officer.  Burgess described cyberspace as “the most immediate, low-cost and potentially high-impact vector for sabotage.”  He noted that the interdependence of critical infrastructure networks “increases the vulnerabilities and potential access points.”  The Record

UK AI safety body examining if non-English chatbots provide more dangerous responses.  Britain's newly established Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (AISI) will begin tests of AI systems in Mandarin, Arabic, Korean, and French to determine if they pose the risk of assisting terrorists in developing biological weapons. Researchers have discovered some instances in which chatbots written in languages other than English are more likely to give dangerous answers or encourage illegal behavior. Chatbots developed in China and the Middle East often receive less close examination than their English-language counterparts. A representative of the AI institute said the group is translating questions and answers related to biology and chemistry to determine if non-English large language models “lower the barrier to bioterrorism or other malicious activity.” According to a spokesperson for the Science, Innovation, and Technology department, AI testing will be concentrated on “risks which we believe could cause the most harm.”  Brown University researchers last month discovered that ChatGPT would more readily offer instructions on creating explosives if prompted in rare languages such as Scots Gaelic or Zulu, whereas similar queries in English would be refused.  The Telegraph

Space Force says Russian nuclear weapon in space will not alter satellite architecture.  The prospect of a Russian nuclear space weapon will not alter the Space Force’s plans to deploy a military communications network consisting of hundreds of small satellites.  Derek Tournear, director of the Space Development Agency, termed the Russian nuclear possibility a “black swan event” that would not change the planned space-based architecture.  The theory behind the Space Force Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) is that its inherent design would enable continued operations even if some satellites were damaged or destroyed by an adversary.  Tournear said that the proliferated concept neutralizes a point-to-point attack by a direct-ascent or directed-energy beam weapon.  “A common mode failure,” Tournear said, brought about by a cyberattack or supply chain intrusion is more worrying “because you can't proliferate your way out of” that type of threat.  DefenseOne

El Salvador grants Musk's Starlink unit concession for satellite internet. El Salvador's telecommunications regulator announced the government's approval of frequency concessions to a subsidiary of Elon Musk’s Starlink, enabling the provision of satellite internet service in El Salvador. El Salvador's government seeks to enhance connectivity infrastructure through partnerships with private entities, expanding internet access across the country.  Reuters

Report Info

The data cutoff for this product was 7:00 a.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Bruce Wilmot, Elaine Shannon, Allison Brown, Ken Hughes, Brian Bonner, Katharine Campbell, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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