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10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, September 27, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

TOP STORIES:

China Says Military Drills Counter ‘Arrogance’ of Taiwan Separatists, Taiwanese VP Warns of Chinese Attempts to ‘Annex’ Island.  A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said recent Chinese military drills near Taiwan have been aimed at countering the “arrogance” of separatist forces seeking independence.  The spokesperson urged Taiwanese people to choose between “right and wrong” and oppose independence to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait.  The front-runner to be Taiwan’s next president, Vice President William Lai, said on Wednesday that China continues to try and “annex” the island and that the situation “has not improved due to the passage of time.”  While Lai has previously made comments supporting independence, he has said more recently that he does not seek to change the status quo.  The comments come after Taiwanese Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said on Friday that the recent Chinese military activity in the region has been “quite abnormal,” including reported drills in Dacheng Bay in Fujian province.  He also warned the activity increases risks of an accident that could lead to events “getting out of hand.”  Taiwan’s defense ministry detected 32 Chinese military aircraft and 8 naval vessels around the island on Wednesday, with 16 of the aircraft entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.  Reuters Al Jazeera Taiwan News 

Philippines Urges Fishermen to Maintain Presence in Disputed Waters.  The coast guard of the Philippines is urging the country’s fishermen to keep operating at the Scarborough Shoal and other disputed areas in the South China Sea to counter Chinese claims in the region.  A spokesperson for the coast guard said that while the force cannot maintain a constant presence in all areas, it will increase patrols to ensure Philippine fishermen are protected in the country’s exclusive economic zone.  The comments come after Manila removed a barrier placed by Beijing at the Scarborough Shoal.  China has since said it maintains sovereignty over the shoal, though Philippine defense officials say Beijing’s response to the removal of the barrier has otherwise been measured. Reuters New York Times 

North Korea Expels Private Travis King.  North Korea expelled American soldier Private Travis King, who crossed into the country in July.  North Korean state media reports that King “confessed” to illegally entering North Korea to seek refuge from mistreatment and racial discrimination in the U.S. Army and because he was disillusioned with the “unequal U.S. society.”  U.S. officials say that King has now been transferred to American custody in China.  King crossed into North Korea while on a civilian tour of the Joint Security Area.  Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

U.K. Says Piecemeal Deployment of Russian Formation Suggest New Offensive Unlikely.  The UK Ministry of Defense reports that Russia has likely deployed units from its 25th Combined Arms Army (25 CAA) for the first time, noting that the formation started moving into Ukraine in late August 2023.  Units from 25 CAA have reportedly been deployed piecemeal along the front, fighting west of Severodonetsk and Kreminna, along the border between the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.  The ministry said the apparent piecemeal deployment of 25 CAA to reinforce its over-stretched line suggests Russia is less likely to launch a new concerted offensive in the coming weeks.  UK Ministry of Defense X

Ukrainian General Staff Reports Progress Towards Bakhmut, Melitopol.  The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported Wednesday that troops are continuing to perform counteroffensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut in the east and Melitopol in the south.  The General Staff added that Russia’s forces allegedly carried out unsuccessful assaults close to Sieverne and Marinka in Donetsk and south of Novodarivka in Zaporizhzhia.  The General Staff also said that over the course of the previous day, Moscow launched 77 air strikes, 10 missile strikes, and 44 multiple-launch rocket systems strikes targeting both military and civilian zones.  Last week, Ukraine’s military penetrated Russian lines near the settlement of Verbove in the south, according to General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who added that the liberation of Tokmak on the southern front was "the minimum goal" of the counteroffensive. Kyiv Independent

Russia Launches Attacks Across Ukraine.  Ukrainian officials reported Russian attacks in various regions on Wednesday.  In Zaporizhzhia, officials said Russia launched 130 attacks in the past day, shelling 27 settlements and conducting airstrikes, drone attacks and Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) attacks on several villages.  The attacks damaged residential buildings and infrastructure, and one man was killed by Russian artillery fire in the city of Orikhiv.  Russian forces also attacked several districts in the Kharkiv region, injuring a man in the town of Vovchansk and causing fires in several areas.  Three others were injured in attacks on the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions.  CNN

Ukraine Claims Russia has Lost 276,990 Soldiers in War.  Russia has reportedly lost 276,990 troops in Ukraine since the start of its invasion in February of  2022, according to a Wednesday report by the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces.  This figure also includes 320 casualties that Russian forces have allegedly suffered over the past day.  The report further claims that Moscow has lost 8,950 armored fighting vehicles, 8,792 vehicles and fuel tanks, 6,337 artillery systems, 4,948 drones, 4,675 tanks, 792 multiple launch rocket systems, 534 air defense systems, 315 airplanes, 316 helicopters, and 20 vessels so far in the war. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Detains Two Suspected of Helping Russian Strikes.  Ukraine’s SBU security service said it detained two suspected Russian agents who sent coordinates of targets in Kyiv for Russian forces to attack last week.  The SBU said the targets included Kyiv’s critical infrastructure, including energy generating facilities.  The SHU added that the suspected spies were “local residents” and accused them of receiving funds from Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the arrests of the alleged spies shows there will be “retribution” for all “traitors.”  Russia launched a massive missile attack across Ukraine last week.  Ukrainian authorities said 36 of 43 missiles were downed by air defenses, though seven people in Kyiv were injured in the attack.  CNN

Russia Airs Interview of Commander of Black Sea Fleet.  A Russian military media outlet on Wednesday posted a video interview featuring Admiral Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, who Ukraine said was killed in a strike on the fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea last week.  In the interview, Sokolov says the fleet and Russian Marines are carrying out their duties successfully.  The video interview was released a day after the Russian defense ministry posted footage of a defense meeting that Sokolov appeared to attend via videoconference.  Several media outlets say they could not independently verify when either of the videos were filmed.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that Sokolov attended the defense meeting, but has not explicitly said whether the admiral is alive or not, referring further questions to the defense ministry.  Ukraine responded to the alleged defense meeting footage that it is “clarifying the information” on the matter.  CNN New York Times Reuters

Russia Building Railway to Occupied Ukrainian Cities.  Ukraine says Russia is constructing a railway to connect the occupied cities of Mariupol, Volnovakha and Donetsk to Russia.  Petro Adnriushchenko, advisor to the exiled mayor of Mariupol, said Russia is building a bridge over the Kalmius River, which would allow it to connect the existing rail line between the occupied cities to Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia.  He added that if the railway is completed, Russia will be able to send supplies to occupied areas in southern Ukraine without relying on the Crimea bridge.  CNN

Netherlands to Transfer First F-16 Jets to Ukraine in 2024, Says Dutch Minister.  Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said Tuesday that Ukraine would receive F-16 jets from the Netherlands sometime in 2024.  Ollongren said that the Netherlands, Norway and Denmark are able to offer Kyiv the jets because their air forces are upgrading to newer F-35 aircraft.  Ollongren also estimated that training Ukrainian pilots on the jets could take six to eight months, which would be less time than the usual training of Dutch pilots.  However, she noted that the exact training schedule is unclear and that other staff must also undergo training.  Ollongren said that Denmark has already started training Ukrainian pilots and that the U.S. will soon begin as well, adding that the Netherlands is readying a training center in Romania.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Says Russian Missiles Contain Numerous Foreign-Made Parts.  Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk told reporters on Tuesday that between 30 and 50 parts within Russian missiles are manufactured outside of Russia.  However, he added that because of international sanctions, Russia has had to invest in producing these parts in Russia.  Pletenchuk asserted that the Russian-made components are less reliable than foreign-made parts.  He also said the sanctions have forced Moscow to change suppliers of some of the components, highlighting a switch from German-made to Chinese-made engines in naval vessels.  Ukrainian authorities routinely investigate components found inside Russian missiles and drones to assess how successful Russia has been in circumventing sanctions.  Kyiv Independent

Switzerland to Sell Back Some Leopard II Tanks to Germany.  The Swiss parliament on Tuesday approved the decommissioning of 25 Leopard II tanks, which will allow them to be sold back to Germany.  The German government asked Switzerland to sell back some of its 96 Leopard II tanks that it has in storage in February to help replenish German stocks depleted by aid shipments to Ukraine.  Under Swiss neutrality laws, the tanks will not be sent to Kyiv and will remain in Germany or with a NATO or E.U. ally.  Switzerland has previously blocked transfers of Swiss-made weapons to Ukraine due to Swiss neutrality.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

CIA Preparing AI Tool To Sift, Organize Mountains of Open Source Data.  The CIA is preparing to launch a generative AI chatbot that will allow analysts to sort through reams of open source reporting to “find the needles in the needle field,” according to the director of the Open-Source Enterprise (OSE) division.  OSE chief Randy Nixon explained that the new AI tool will be a “next level” capability where users can “start chatting and asking questions of the machines to give you answers, also sourced.” Nixon also noted the unlimited potential of the technology in which the CIA’s “collection can just continue to grow and grow with no limitations other than how much things cost.”  Competition in the AI sector with China puts a premium on using the technology to enable the intelligence community to process the vast stores of publicly available information.  The community has been criticized in the past for under-exploiting open source data.  The specific AI model the CIA will use has not been disclosed.  The tool will be made available throughout the intelligence community.   Nixon emphasized the “astronomical growth” in open source information over the last 80 years, reinforcing the value of an AI tool that will pre-process data “pushing you the right information, one where the machine can auto-summarize, group things together.”  Bloomberg

MIT Review Asks AI ‘Pause’ Letter Advocate What Has Changed in Six Months.  In March, a call to “pause” further development of generative AI language models drew worldwide attention.  Max Tegmark, the founder of the Future of Life Institute (FLI) that sponsored that open letter from tech experts and entrepreneurs, believes the goal of mainstreaming the AI risk conversation “was a success.”  The MIT Technology Review interviewed Tegmark to inquire about how things stand in the AI sector a half-year later.  Apart from bringing discussion of AI risks into public view, Tegmark cannot point to concrete outcomes stemming from the letter, which originally was signed by Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and many leading AI experts.  “What’s not great,” Tegmark said, “is that all the companies are still going full steam ahead and we still have no meaningful regulation in America.”  Tegmark lamented the lack of legislative action in Congress to “rein in the most dangerous stuff.”  He favors a federal regulatory agency to monitor and enforce AI governance, noting that “the only way the pause comes about is if the governments of the world step in and put in place safety standards that force everyone to pause.”  Tegmark acknowledges that AI entrepreneurs like OpenAi’s Sam Altman, DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis, and Anthropic’s Dario Amodei cannot unilaterally “pause” their companies because they would be outcompeted by rivals, “and then that CEO will be replaced with someone who doesn’t want to pause.”  Tegmark says his conversations with these and other tech CEO’s convinces him they have “a good future with AI” in mind.  He noted also that he supports those in the tech community who emphasize the “current harms” associated with AI, such as bias.  Concerning mistakes that need to be avoided in next steps with AI, Tegmark said tech companies cannot be allowed to write legislation.  He also warned about the debate turning into a “West versus China” contest or that only one perspective – existential threats or current risks – would come to dominate the conversation.  MIT Technology Review

EU Leader Spotlights Social Media Role in Countering Russian Election Disinformation.  The vice president of the European Commission, Vera Jourova, told reporters Tuesday that the “X” platform operated by Elon Musk is the largest platform for disinformation peddlers as she appealed to social media enterprises to become more vigilant in the struggle against Russian influence operations.  The period leading up to EU and individual member state elections are when social media platforms need to take action, she said.  The EU has released evaluations of the counter-disinformation actions by tech companies, including Facebook, Google and TikTok.  Many major platforms have agreed to the EU’s voluntary code of conduct, which offers industry standards for fact-checking and other measures.  In this connection, Jourova noted that “X” no longer subscribes to the code, and “is the platform with the largest ratio of mis- or disinformation posts.”  A pilot project conducted by the EU demonstrated that “disinformation actors were found to have significantly more followers than their non-disinformation counterparts.”  Jourova credited several of the platforms with efforts to counter Moscow’s actions, including Google’s termination of over 400 channels involved in Russian influence operations in early 2023, and Meta’s expansion of fact-checking partnerships in 22 languages.  Jourova added that Russian disinformation is particularly acute in Slovakia, which holds elections on Saturday.  “Slovakia has been chosen as the country where there is fertile ground for success of the Russian pro-Kremlin, pro-war narratives,” she said.  Bloomberg Reuters

Consumer Group Calls for Restraint, Guardrails in AI-Human Interactions.  A new report from the Public Citizen advocacy group raises alarms about the impersonating powers of AI, describing it as “deceptive anthropomorphism.”  Public Citizen contends that AI tech companies’ profit motivation leads them to create AI applications that “hijack users’ attention and manipulate their feelings.”  In response to what it describes as a mounting danger, the author of the report, Rick Claypool, recommends banning the potentially deceptive features of AI applications and calls on government and regulators to “move as quickly as possible to thwart an array of unique, unprecedented, and unexpected harms.”  Extra scrutiny should be given, the report argues, to AI systems for children, the elderly, and individuals with mental illnesses.  Politico reached out to computer scientist Suresh Venkatasubramanian, who co-authored the White House’s AI Bill of Rights while serving as a science policy adviser in the Biden administration, for his impressions of the report.  Venkatasubramanian pointed to the inevitability of using AI in interactions with human beings, but said AI system developers bear responsibility for designing applications that avoid deception and make clear the dividing line between an automated system and its human user.  He noted that the FDA should be concerned about AI use in telehealth interactions that do not involve a human doctor or therapist, illustrating the point with an example of a “bot therapist” that processes medical documentation alongside a patient’s health condition and offers insights on an individual’s mental health.  Venkatasubramanian foresees the continued replacement of human beings in customer service situations, explaining that “we’ll see more and more rollout of tools … because it looks like these tools can act like humans. But they really can’t.”  Politico Public Citizen

Former U.S. OECD Envoy Reflects on UN Role in Addressing AI Governance Challenges.  The UN General Assembly held multiple sessions last week dedicated to discussions of artificial intelligence, but with no clear outcomes or new initiatives.  Politico interviewed Karen Kornbluh, a senior fellow and director of the German Marshall Fund's Digital Innovation Democracy Initiative and former U.S. ambassador to the OECD, for her impressions of the UN’s role in AI advances and governance.  Kornbluh noted that the UN is not equal to AI’s difficult challenges because it has too many members, and widely divergent interests represented by geopolitical divides like the one between the West and Russia and China.  Smaller groups like the G-7 and OECD have too few members to adequately represent global equities even if their memberships can find common ground on difficult topics.  Kornbluh advocated a new group, the Technology Task Force, to address the issue of technology in general and AI explicitly, noting that multinational issues like nuclear energy and money laundering have been handled previously by such structures.  She also noted that enforcing global AI standards will be made more difficult because so many countries, including the U.S., lack domestic laws and structures capable of regulating the industry. “Scaffolding” like this, Kornbluh said, is key to hold countries and companies accountable for harms caused by AI.  “It’s a double challenge,” Kornbluh observed, “it’s a challenge for these international organizations and it’s a challenge for individual countries also to figure out what the enforcement mechanism is going to be.”  Politico

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

U.S. Lawmakers Call for Egypt Aid Rethink Following Menendez Indictment.  In the wake of charges that Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) accepted bribes on behalf of Egypt’s government, members of Congress are calling on the Biden Administration to reconsider the $235 million in military aid to Cairo it approved in September.  Menendez has denied any wrongdoing, but Senate Foreign Relations Middle East Subcommittee Chair Chris Murphy (D-CT) said he hopes the committee will investigate Egypt’s involvement in the case.  Earlier this month, the Biden Administration decided to allow much of the military aid to Egypt to continue, arguing that Egypt is vital to U.S. national security interests despite human rights concerns, but Murphy and others criticized the decision.  Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA), co-founder of the congressional Egypt Human Rights Caucus, accused Egypt of “conducting an espionage operation within the U.S. Senate” which calls for a “much stronger response” from the Biden administration.  Reuters

Costa Rica to Declare State of Emergency due to Flood of Migrants Traveling to US.

Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves on Tuesday ordered a state of emergency amid an influx of migrants crossing through the nation to reach the U.S.  Chaves added that he told the “security ministry to take a firm stance with anyone who takes Costa Rica's kindness for weakness," referencing recent reported riots by migrants in the country.  Chaves claimed that the people arriving in Costa Rica have come from around the globe, including countries such as Ecuador, Venezuela, Colombia, China, Yemen, Haiti, and Bangladesh.  More than 84,490 people entered Costa Rica by crossing the southern border in August, an increase of 55% compared to September, according to the International Organization for Migration. In early October, Chaves is expected to visit Panama for talks on the regional migrant crisis.  CNN Reuters Deutsche Welle

India Says it Will Look Into ‘Specific’ Information on Killing of Sikh Leader in Canada.  Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on Tuesday said that his country has told Canada that New Delhi will look into any “specific” and “relevant” information Ottawa provides regarding the killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijar in British Columbia in June.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said last week that his government has credible evidence linking Indian agents to the killing, but New Delhi denies any connection. The U.S. and other Canadian allies have urged India to cooperate with Canada’s investigation.  Reuters

Armenia Says More Than 42,000 Have Fled Nagorno-Karabakh.  Armenian officials say approximately 42,500 ethnic Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh since Azerbaijan took control of the region last week.  The exodus represents about one-third of the region’s population.  Azerbaijani authorities were reportedly engaged in rigorous checks at the border, claiming to look for “war crimes” suspects.  Agence France Presse reported a government source said Azerbaijan intends to grant amnesty to Armenian fighters in the region who surrender their arms, but Azerbaijan said war criminals must be turned over.  Azerbaijan says ethnic Armenians of Karabakh will be safe and treated as “equal citizens” as the region is integrated, but Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says “ethnic cleansing” has begun.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to provide “unconditional protections and freedom of movement for civilians” and “unhindered humanitarian access to Nagorno-Karabakh.” USAID Administrator Samantha Power, in Armenia near the border, added that it is “absolutely critical” that independent monitors and human rights organizations gain access to the region.  She also said doctors have reported “severe malnutrition” there.  U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged both sides to respect human rights.  Meanwhile, Armenian and Azerbaijani officials met in Brussels yesterday for E.U.-backed talks.  BBC Reuters CNN 

French Ambassador Departs Niger.  French Ambassador to Niger Sylvain Itte left the West African country this morning, a month after Niger’s military government ordered him to leave.  France had ignored the order from the ruling junta which ordered Itte to leave, contending that the junta was illegitimate and calling for the reinstatement of the civilian government which was overthrown in July.  But on Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron said Itte would be withdrawn, along with French forces, who were sent to Nigeria to help fight Islamist insurgents.  Some analysts are concerned that the withdrawal of French troops could hinder Western counter-terrorism efforts and could boost Russian influence in the region.  Reuters France 24

U.S. Pauses Certain Foreign Aid Programs for Gabon’s Government Following Coup.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday that Washington is suspending some foreign aid programs assisting the government of Gabon, in the wake of last month’s coup.  Though the U.S. will withhold some assistance that might help Gabon’s government, it will maintain operational projects in the Central African country, such as diplomatic and consular operations supporting American nationals.  ECOWAS, the African Union, and other international partners have made similar decisions to cut down assistance due to Gabon’s coup on August 30th, in which military officers ousted President Ali Bongo, whose family ruled the oil-rich nation for decades.  Reuters France 24

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