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10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, October 25, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES

Google Running Undersea Internet Cables Between Pacific Islands Under Australia-U.S. Deal.  Alphabet’s Google will run undersea internet cables between at least eight Pacific Island nations — including Micronesia, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tuvalu and Vanuatu — under a joint U.S.-Australian deal, according to a U.S. official.  The deal will expand an existing commercial project by Google in the region and is set to be announced during Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to Washington on Wednesday.  The official said Canberra will contribute $50 million to the deal and Washington will pledge another $15 million.  The U.S. reportedly will also bolster participating countries’ cybersecurity capabilities and help them back up key information to global cloud networks.  The deal on the cable will come amid heightened competition with China over the region.  It will also come as the Biden administration pushes for U.S. dominance in telecommunications services, seen in other projects like Google’s efforts to build a fiber-optic cable between Taiwan, the Philippines and the U.S.  Reuters 

China, Colombia Upgrade Diplomatic Ties.  China and Colombia, one of the closest U.S. allies in South America, elevated their diplomatic relations to a strategic partnership on Wednesday.  The two countries upgraded their relations during a visit by Colombian President Gustavo Petro to Beijing this week.  China now has strategic ties with 10 of the 11 South American countries it has relations with.  Guyana is the only exception to still have ordinary bilateral ties with China.  Beijing has increased diplomatic and trade efforts in South America, Central America and the Caribbean in recent years.  Trade is a key lever in China’s influence on the region; Chinese imports in 2022 totaled $7 billion, marking a nearly 20% increase from five years earlier.  Barron’s Reuters 

Russia’s Parliament Passes Bill Revoking Ratification of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.  Russia’s parliament passed a bill revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty on Wednesday.  The parliament’s upper house Federation Council unanimously approved the measure after the lower house State Duma passed it last week.  The legislation now goes to President Vladimir Putin for signing.  Russia previously said it sought to withdraw from the treaty to “mirror” the position of the U.S., which signed the treaty but has not ratified it.  Russia maintains that even if it withdraws from the treaty, it will not resume nuclear testing unless the U.S. does.  The U.S. State Department said the move “needlessly endangers the global norm against nuclear explosive testing.”  Experts say that if either Russia or the U.S. resume nuclear testing, it will likely trigger a new nuclear arms race and testing by other countries.  The U.S. Energy Department said last week that it conducted a chemical explosion at a test site in Nevada to help improve abilities to “detect low-yield nuclear explosions.”  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the explosion was “undoubtedly a political signal.”  Russian state media reported that Ryabkov separately said Moscow is not ready to resume nuclear talks with the U.S., citing Washington’s “deeply fundamental hostile course.”  There is now doubt on the fate of the New START Treaty, which limits the number of strategic warheads the U.S. and Russia can deploy and is the last bilateral nuclear weapons accord between the two countries.  The agreement expires in 2026, and Russia suspended the treaty earlier this year.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Conducts ‘Wide-Scale’ Airstrikes in Gaza.  Israel’s military said on Wednesday that it conducted “wide-scale” strikes in Gaza over the past day, hitting Hamas tunnels, military headquarters and weapons warehouses.  The Israel Defense Forces said it also killed five Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon who attempted to launch missiles and rockets into Israel.  The IDF also responded to rocket attacks launched from Syria.  Palestinian authorities say Israeli air strikes have killed at least 6,546 people in Gaza.  Israeli officials report that the Hamas attacks killed 1,400 people in Israel.  The World Health Organization said six hospitals across the Gaza Strip have reportedly shut down because they ran out of fuel.  Some aid has made it into Gaza from Egypt, but Israel is still blocking fuel deliveries over concerns that Hamas will divert them for military purposes.  The Palestinian Red Crescent said eight of 20 expected aid trucks arrived in Gaza through the Rafah crossing overnight.  An Egyptian official said Israel was still expecting the other 12.  ABC News New York Times Washington Post 

Israel says it Stopped Infiltration by Hamas Divers.  Israel’s military says Israeli naval forces intercepted Hamas divers attempting to infiltrate evacuated southern communities in Israel via the sea on Tuesday.  Israel’s state-owned Kan TV said the divers used a tunnel to directly enter the ocean without being noticed.  A suspected infiltration alarm sounded in the areas where they came ashore.  Israeli news outlet Ynet said at least two Hamas divers were killed.  The Israeli army said it is conducting searches to ensure no divers slipped past security forces.  The Israel Defense Forces added that a fighter jet also conducted an airstrike against a compound where the divers reportedly set out from.  Bloomberg Times of Israel 

Israeli Drone Strike in West Bank Kills Three Palestinians.  The Israeli military said Wednesday that its forces conducted an overnight raid in the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank and were attacked by a group of Palestinian fighters, who were then targeted by an Israeli drone strike.  Palestinian authorities said at least three people were killed.  The Palestinian Authority's news agency WAFA reported that the drones fired at least two projectiles and cited local officials who said more than 20 people were wounded in addition to the three killed. This drone assault was at least the third instance of Israeli air power being used in the West Bank.  Reuters

Israeli Air Strikes Hit Syrian Military Assets after Rocket Launches.  The Israeli military said its fighter jets struck Syrian army “military infrastructure and mortar launchers” early on Wednesday in retaliation for rocket launches from Syria towards Israel.  The Israeli military said two rockets were launched and that they set off air raid sirens in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on Tuesday.  Israel’s military did not directly accuse Syria’s army of firing the rockets.  Syrian state news agency SANA reported that eight Syrian soldiers were killed in Israeli attacks in southwest Syria.  A Syrian military source later said an Israeli air raid hit Aleppo International Airport for the fourth time in two weeks, damaging the airport’s runway and knocking it out of service.  Reuters Times of Israel Wall Street Journal

Hamas, Hezbollah Palestinian Islamic Jihad Leaders Meet.  The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, met Palestinian Islamic Jihad Secretary General Ziyad al-Nakhalah and deputy leader of Hamas, Sheikh Saleh al-Arouri, at an unidentified location on Wednesday.  Hezbollah said the meeting focused on “international positions being taken” over the Hamas attacks on Israel and how the three militant groups can “achieve a real victory for the resistance.”  Hezbollah fighters have exchanged fire with Israel troops along the Israel-Lebanon border since the Hamas attacks.  Al Jazeera Associated Press Reuters 

Turkey’s Erdogan Says Hamas Not a Terrorist Organization.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Wednesday said that Hamas is not a terrorist organization and is instead a “liberation group” fighting for Palestine and its people, marking his strongest comments yet on the Israel-Hamas conflict.  In remarks to lawmakers from his ruling AK Party, Erdogan also criticized Western support for Israel’s response to the Hamas attacks, saying “Western tears shed for Israel are a manifestation of fraud.”  Erdogan, who has canceled a planned trip to Israel due to Israeli attacks in Gaza, added that there should be an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian forces and that Muslim countries should coordinate to secure lasting peace in the region.  Turkey has condemned the civilian deaths in the Hamas attacks but has also called on Israel to respond with restraint.  Turkey reportedly hosts Hamas members on its territory.  Politico Reuters Times of Israel Wall Street Journal

U.S. Against Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, Backs Pauses for Gaza Humanitarian Aid.  White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that a full ceasefire in Gaza only "benefits Hamas."  However, he said that the U.S. believes that pauses in the conflict to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza is “something that ought to be considered.”  The U.S. has proposed a U.N. Security Council resolution for aid pauses.  Russia has proposed a rival resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire.  New York Times Barron’s Bloomberg Reuters

U.S. Officials Have ‘High Confidence’ that Gaza Hospital Blast not Caused by Israel.  U.S. intelligence officials said on Tuesday that they have “high confidence” that last week’s blast at Gaza’s al-Ahli Hospital was caused not by an Israeli air strike but by a failed rocket launched from Gaza.  Officials said they reached this assessment from analysis of footage of the rocket’s flight path and an investigation into the blast’s impact on the hospital and surrounding area.  One of the officials said that examinations of videos taken from four locations showed that the rocket was launched from the Gaza Strip and moved northeast before the motor combustion likely became “unstable,” causing the motor and warhead to separate. “Catastrophic motor failure” probably caused the warhead to land on the hospital.  They said that damage at the hospital also indicated an impact from a rocket rather than the “large craters and broader blast effects” they would expect from an air-dropped munition or artillery round.  Officials added that they have not seen images or footage of debris that would suggest the use of Israeli munitions.  Officials said that they lacked information to conclusively say who was responsible, assessing with “low confidence” that Palestinian militants launched the rocket.  New York Times Politico Washington Post

U.S. Pushes Gulf to Stem Hamas Funding.  The U.S. urged Gulf Arab States to help curb Hamas’s funding network.  The U.S. made the appeal at a meeting of the Riyadh-based Terrorist Financing Targeting Center, which was brought forward to Monday this week from next month.  U.S. Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, urged Gulf Cooperation Council member states at the meeting to share intelligence that could be used to develop sanctions against Hamas-supporting individuals or entities, highlighting the pressing need to prevent Hamas from leveraging its October 7 attacks on Israel to amass funds.  Nelson said that the U.S. is specifically concerned about Hamas’s ability to exploit links to regional charities, shell companies and financial institutions in addition to its control of Gaza Strip government institutions.  Nelson added that there is also particular worry over Hamas’s use of cryptocurrencies.  Bloomberg The Cipher Brief

Australia Sends More Military Personnel, Aircraft to the Middle East.  Australia announced Wednesday that it had transferred a "significant number" of defense personnel as well as two more military aircraft to the Middle East to support Australian nationals in the event of an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas militants. Defense Minister Richard Marles said Canberra deployed a Boeing C-17 aircraft in addition to an air refueler plane that can carry passengers. Due to security concerns, Marles did not provide details about the number of personnel sent, or where the aircraft would be based, but did say they will not be in Israel. Australia has already ordered and conducted repatriation flights for citizens stuck in Israel and has been attempting to save 51 Australians from the West Bank and 79 from the Gaza Strip. Marles said that Australians stranded in Gaza should try to go toward the Rafah border crossing with Egypt and urged Australians in Lebanon who want to leave to do so.  Reuters Times of Israel 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Record Russian Losses in Assault on Avdiivka.  Ukraine reports that Russia’s eastern offensive, centered on the city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, has failed, resulting in major Russian armor and personnel losses.  The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported Russian forces lost 1,380 personnel, 55 tanks, and 120 armored fighting vehicles on October 19 alone, with the bulk of losses from the Avdiivka sector.  Russia’s losses in Avdiivka compare to similar failed Russian assaults on Vuhledar in southern Donetsk last winter, and also to the attritional fight in the Bakhmut area.  Experts say there are still possible warnings signs from the Avdiivka offensive, noting that the assault shows Russia still has reserves and equipment to commit to offensive operations and that Moscow may be viewing Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive as at least approaching its culmination.  Experts add that Avdiivka will likely continue to be a hotspot in the coming months.  Kyiv Independent 

Russia's Shoigu Visits Eastern Ukraine.  Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly inspected Russian command posts in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.  The ministry published video footage of Shoigu engaging with senior military personnel in the area, adding that he told assembled troops that their efforts were giving Ukraine’s military “fewer and fewer opportunities.”  The ministry added that Shoigu was informed about Russian troop’s training on drones and that he stressed the need for winter clothing for service members as the weather gets colder.  Shoigu has been shown meeting Russian troops in Ukraine several times this month in televised clips in an effort to project confidence about Moscow’s invasion.  Reuters

Russia Reportedly Using Cheaper, Domestic Drones in Ukraine.  The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia may be using new, domestically-made long-range Italmas drones in Ukraine.  The Italmas is reportedly improved in comparison to the Russian-made drone Lancet, with the Italmas featuring a larger warhead, an extended launch range of up to over 120 miles, and a gasoline engine.  Russian sources say that the Italmas is also lighter, cheaper, and harder to detect and intercept than Iranian-made Shahed drones.  However, Italmas drones deliver smaller payloads, so they are likely to be used in tandem with Shaheds.  The reports on the Italmas come amid speculation in Russian media, but there has been no photographic or confirmed physical evidence of the drones.  Experts say it is too early to conclude whether the Italmas has been deployed.  Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War 

Ukraine Lauds ATACMS Effectiveness.  Ukraine’s Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov said that the first long-range Army Tactical Missiles Systems (ATACMS)  from the U.S. have “exceeded expectations.”  He said that after the use of the first batch of ATACMS, Russian helicopter attacks on Ukrainian forces have decreased.  Ukraine says it used the missiles in strikes on Russian airfields in occupied Berdiansk and Luhansk regions.  The attacks reportedly damaged nine Russian helicopters in Berdiansk and five more in Luhansk.  The U.S. has reportedly provided Ukraine with around 20 ATACMS, which Kyiv has long requested to use in attacks on Russian targets far behind the front lines.  Kyiv Independent 

Russia Says Resilient Against Sanctions.  The Kremlin maintains that Russia’s economy is weathering Western sanctions imposed after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday that Russia has been “under a sanctions regime for quite a long time, for decades, and we have sufficiently adapted to it.”  The E.U. has so far imposed 11 sanction packages on Russia and said last week that it will work to remove loopholes in existing measures.  Russia says such sanctions have boosted its domestic economy and manufacturing, and experts say Moscow is circumventing a significant amount of sanctions.  Al Jazeera 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Israel Employs GPS Spoofing To Counter Potential Hezbollah, Hamas Missile Attacks.  One of Israel’s methods of combating militant missile attacks includes scrambling GPS signals over its northern airspace.  University of Texas researchers said that a peculiar pattern appeared with Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7 when GPS signals from aircraft near the Mediterranean momentarily disappeared.  Todd Humphreys, a U.T. professor, said a graduate student, Zach Clements, first detected the spoofing phenomenon.  Humphreys described the pattern as “the most sustained and clear indication of spoofing I’ve ever seen,” potentially affecting hundreds of commercial aircraft.  From a military standpoint, missiles employing GPS could be diverted from their intended trajectory by interfering with GPS guidance.  The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed on Oct. 15 that GPS had been “restricted in active combat zones in accordance with various operational needs.”  The IDF did not disclose the extent of the signal disruptions.  The IDF advised citizens near Israel’s border to stay near protected zones and should expect “temporary glitches in location-based applications.”  Lebanon-based military group Hezbollah has a substantial arsenal of rockets, including precision-guided missiles.  Brian Weeden, program planning director for the Secure World Foundation, said that it is “certainly possible” that Israel could be tampering with GPS both to disrupt missile trajectories as well as hamper Hamas’ ability to navigate and launch ground attacks.  Politico

White House Plans Agenda for Multinational Cybersecurity Meeting Next Week.  Anne Neuberger, deputy national security adviser for cyber, told a Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) gathering Tuesday that a multinational coalition of cybersecurity officials will announce plans next week to share information on digital threats and combat criminal cryptocurrency payments.  The Biden administration will host representatives of 50 countries for the International Counter Ransomware Initiative in Washington.  The administration hopes the meeting will issue a joint policy pledge to refuse ransom payments to cybercriminals, although Neuberger acknowledged, “we're not quite there yet, because when you have 50 countries it's going to be up to the last high wire moment.”  In addition to the no-ransom pledge on the agenda, Lithuania and Israel will announce they are establishing “information sharing platforms “where countries can commit to rapidly sharing that after a major incident.”  Participants will also roll out new steps to pierce the veil of transparency around cryptocurrency.  The Record

U.S. Arctic Strategy Calls on Pentagon To Leverage Surveillance, Satellite Technology.  The White House this week issued an implementation plan for the U.S.’ 10-year Arctic strategy that specifies goals for the Pentagon while noting that “the Arctic environment poses region-specific challenges that require tailored technology, assets, infrastructure, training, and planning.”  The plan directs the DoD to collaborate with other Arctic nations, including joint efforts with Canada to “modernize, improve and better integrate” capabilities for NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command.  Monitoring and surveillance also figure prominently in the DoD task list, with NORAD developing better domain awareness through development of long-range radars and artificial intelligence.  The Pentagon is expected to invest in updating real-time observation, modeling, and data analytic capabilities as well.  Weather and climate also are themes of the Pentagon’s Arctic role, including the Navy’s Oceanographic and Atmospheric Master Library’s Ambient Noise Database, and a Space Force environmental monitoring project leading to the ability “to predict and potentially mitigate the effects of changes in the natural environment.”  The Pentagon and NASA are jointly called on to “improve communications and positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) capabilities by developing communications and data networks capable of operating in the northern latitudes.”  Military exercises conducted with allies and partners, such as Arctic Edge and Arctic Challenge, should be conducted “to develop and strengthen homeland defense plans in the Arctic and exercise Joint presence.”  DefenseScoop

Foreign Affairs Assesses AI’s Potential for Revolutionary Economic Growth.  Trillion-dollar payoffs are projected for generative and other AI products and services, although those gains may not be realized until the beginning of the next decade, according to a new Foreign Affairs analysis co-authored by James Manyika, president of research, technology, and society at Google-Alphabet, and Michael Spence, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.  The transition to AI becoming a driver of global economy will involve overcoming various “technological, process-related, and organizational hurdles, as well as industry dynamics.”  In order to control the risks and threats presently associated with AI, both “a new policy framework” and a different mindset toward AI technologies must emerge that embrace AI as a capability “that can enhance, rather than undermine, human potential and ingenuity.”  The authors note that AI is emerging just as slowdowns in economic productivity are occurring around the world, a trend that began before COVID but was exacerbated by the pandemic.  Into this situation, Manyika and Spence project the AI factor, which they say could generate “a digitally enabled surge in productivity that could restore growth momentum” by counteracting supply-side constraints, especially shrinking labor pools in many nations.  Of the many forms of AI already shaping economies, the authors point to generative AI as holding the greatest potential as an economic engine.  One of the key virtues of this technology is its versatility, with large-language models (LLM’s) now shaping many different domains, from content creation to science to law. LLM’s are multimodal, working with software code, audio, images, video, and other inputs as well as words.  This nimbleness in multiple disciplines and modes means that LLM’s can provide a broad platform for developing countless applications and use cases.  As the authors observe, “the race to create applications for a huge diversity of sectors and professional disciplines and use cases has already begun.”  Foreign Affairs

Japanese Fusion Power Project Achieves Plasma Milestone.  Japan’s national quantum technology institutes announced a breakthrough in the quest for a next-generation energy source when its fusion power project produced superhot plasma.  The JT-60SA research facility generated first plasma, a high-temperature cloud of ionized atoms, and will now advance to building and testing an experimental fusion reactor.  The JT-60SA facility entered into operation in 2020 with Japanese and European funding.  Its mission is to acquire knowledge on sustaining  plasma stably, with the production of first plasma as a critical objective.  JT-60SA is the world’s second-largest plasma research facility after the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor.  Nikkei Asia

Australia Boosting Critical Minerals Investment.  Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that Canberra is investing another A$2 billion ($1.27 billion) into the country’s critical minerals industry.  Albanese said the investment will fund loans and attract U.S. investment for Australian critical minerals mining and processing projects, as well as reduce reliance on China and counter Beijing’s dominance in the critical minerals sector.  Albanese announced the initiative as he travels to Washington to meet with President Joe Biden.  The two are set to discuss cooperation on critical minerals, infrastructure, and AUKUS.  Australia Broadcasting Corp 

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

China’s Xi Says Beijing Willing to Cooperate with U.S., Establish Stable Ties.  Chinese President Xi Jinping says that Beijing is willing to collaborate with the U.S. and establish a better way of interacting.  In a letter delivered at the annual dinner of the New York-headquartered National Committee on United States-China Relations, Xi suggested that the ability for the U.S. and China to find the "right" way of coexisting is critical for the world, adding that that secure bilateral relations should stand on the foundations of "mutual respect, peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation.”  His remarks come ahead of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s trip to Washington this week.  China’s state media agency Global Times said Wang’s visit indicates positive developments, but added that the U.S. must still “make concrete efforts to address Beijing's concerns and show its sincerity.”  In November, President Joe Biden and Xi could potentially meet in San Francisco at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.  Reuters

Analysis: China Developing Nuclear-Powered Guided-Missile Submarines.  The Pentagon reports that China has launched its first nuclear-powered guided missile submarines, marking the first apparent confirmation that China has been developing Type 093B guided missile submarines over the last few months.  The report says that in the short term, the Chinese navy will be able to launch long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarines with land-attack cruise missiles, “notably enhancing (China’s) power projection capability.”  Analysts say China will seek to use the guided-missile submarines (SSGNs) to counter aircraft carriers and as a land-attack platform that offers greater capabilities than its fleets of smaller attack submarines.  The report adds that three of the new SSGNs could be operational by next year.  The Soviet Union developed conventionally armed missile submarines to target U.S. aircraft carriers, and the U.S. Navy developed its own by converting ballistic missile boats to be able to launch land-attack Tomahawk cruise missiles.  Experts say it is still unclear what submarine technology breakthroughs China has incorporated into the new SSGNs, but it is clear that submarine development is a priority for Beijing.  For the U.S. and its partners in the Indo-Pacific region, tracking China’s submarines is a critical driver in increased deployments and contingency planning.  Reuters

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