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10:30 AM ET, Wednesday, October 11, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Blinken Traveling to Israel, Biden Calls Hamas Attack ‘Sheer Evil’, Israel Prepares Ground Offensive.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Israel and Jordan from Wednesday to Friday.  The State Department said he will engage with Israeli officials on how best the U.S. can support them following the Hamas attacks.  A department spokesperson added that the U.S. does not have confirmation that Iran was involved in the preparation of the attacks, though Tehran likely knew Hamas was planning for them.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday denounced the Hamas attack on Israel as “an act of sheer evil.”  He added that Hamas’s actions violate “every code of human morality” and that the group’s “blood thirstiness” harkens back to the “worst rampages of ISIS.”  He added that at least 14 Americans were killed in the Hamas attack.  National security advisor Jake Sullivan separately said that at least 20 Americans are missing, but it is unclear if they are among hostages held by Hamas.

Biden added that Israel has a right to defend itself and that the U.S. will ensure it has what it needs to do.  However, he also called on Israeli forces to follow the “law of war” in its response.

Hamas rejected Biden’s remarks, saying it was an “inflammatory statement” aimed at escalating tensions.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant signaled that Israel will only escalate its response to the Hamas attack, saying that he has “released all restraints” on Israeli troops in the fight against Hamas, adding that in addition to air strikes Israeli forces “will also come from the ground.”

Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) say the first shipment of U.S. ammunition since the Hamas attack has landed in Israel.  IDF said the munitions will “enable significant blows and preparation for additional scenarios.”  The IDF also announced it has contracted over 60 construction companies and gathered 24,000 infrastructure material to support its troops’ ground operations.

The rhetoric from Israeli defense officials and buildup of Israeli forces around Gaza suggest a potential incursion into the Gaza Strip in the coming days.

IDF spokesman Lieutenant Jonathan Conricus said 1,200 people in Israel were killed in the Hamas attacks, with the “overwhelming majority” being civilians.  Israeli forces also continue to hammer the Gaza Strip with airstrikes.  Gaza’s Health Ministry said at least 950 people have been killed in the Gaza Strip by the airstrikes.

Hamas media reports that electricity in Gaza went out on Wednesday after the territory’s sole power station stopped working.

There has been no indication that Hamas has carried out its threat to kill hostages in response to the air strikes.  CNN Associated Press Reuters Politico Wall Street Journal Bloomberg

Israeli Shelling Hits Lebanon in Response to Hezbollah Rocket Fire.  Israeli shelling hit positions in southern Lebanon on Wednesday in response to a rocket attack by Hezbollah, which said it fired precision missiles into Israel in response to Israeli shelling earlier this week that reportedly killed some of its members.  Israeli forces said they hit a Hezbollah position with an air strike after anti-tank fire targeted a military post near the Israeli town of Arab al-Aramshe.  Hezbollah and Hamas both claimed missile and rocket attacks against Israel from Lebanon on Tuesday.  BBC New York Times Reuters

Turkey’s Erdogan Criticizes Movement of U.S. Carrier Strike Group Towards Israel.  Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday said the U.S.S. Gerald Ford carrier strike group, which the U.S. has moved closer to Israel following the Hamas attack, will commit “serious massacres” in Gaza.  He claimed that the strike group will “hit Gaza” and surrounding areas.  Erdogan has previously said Turkey is ready to mediate between Israel and Palestine.  Ankara has previously backed Palestinians, hosted members of Hamas, and supported a two-state solution.  It is also attempting to take steps to repair long strained relations with Israel.  Bloomberg Reuters

Expert Perspectives from the 2023 Threat Conference: Massive Intelligence Failure Behind Hamas Attack.  Attendees of the Cipher Brief 2023 Threat Conference framed the Hamas attack on Israel as a massive intelligence failure that came despite Israel’s record of being a “gold standard” for intelligence.  Former CIA Director and Cipher Brief Expert Gen. David Petraeus that there were lapses in Israel’s internal security service Shin Bet “in particular” and that Mossad may have also failed to pick up on regional signals ahead of the attacks.  Petraeus also questioned why the Israeli military seemed unprepared to handle the attacks.  Cipher Brief Expert Norman Roule, former national intelligence manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), said there was also a wider “international intelligence failure,” arguing that Western intelligence agencies also missed signs of the attack.  Cipher Brief Expert Beth Sanner, former Deputy Director for National Intelligence at ODNI, added that the Israeli government appeared to have missed strategic warning signs of unrest in Gaza and “fundamentally misunderstood” the goals and capabilities of Hamas.  Others added that domestic turmoil in Israel may have diverted attention amongst the country’s intelligence services.  Cipher Brief Expert Gen. Michael Hayden, former director of CIA and NSA, also said that he believed the main goal for the attacks may have been to disrupt talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize diplomatic relations. (Editor’s Note: Read more about the intelligence failure behind the Hamas attack on Israel in The Cipher Brief, including from former Acting CIA Director and Cipher Brief Expert John McLaughlin.)  Bloomberg The Cipher Brief The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Accuses Former Hroza Residents of Guiding Russian Missile Strike on Village.  The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the country’s domestic intelligence service, has accused two former residents of Hroza who fled to Russia of helping the Russian military guide a missile strike that killed dozens of people, mostly civilians, at a soldier’s wake in the village on October 5.  It was the deadliest attack in Ukraine so far this year.  The SBU said the two suspects, who are brothers, worked for Russian occupation authorities when Moscow controlled Hroza for several months last year, and that they have been helping Russia build a network of informants in Ukraine.  Russia has denied targeting civilians in its invasion of Ukraine, despite launching drones and missiles at civilian populations and critical infrastructure.  Kyiv Post Reuters

Zelensky Visits NATO Headquarters to Request More Aid.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Wednesday to request further military aid.  He reiterated his call for more air defenses, especially ahead of the upcoming winter.  Zelensky also compared the Russian invasion with attacks by Hamas, calling both sides “terrorists” targeting democratic nations.  Zelensky’s trip to Brussels came after a visit to Romania on Tuesday.  He met Romanian President Klaus Iohannis to discuss air defense capabilities, further collaboration and Black Sea security.  Russian attacks on the Odesa region have increasingly spilled over into bordering Romania, namely seen in the discovery of drone debris in Romanian territory.  Reuters New York TImes Washington Post Kyiv Independent

U.S. Announces New Ukraine Military Aid.  U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced that the U.S. will send a new military assistance package to Ukraine worth around $200 million.  The package will include more artillery, HIMARS ammunition, precision aerial munitions, electronic-warfare equipment, missiles, anti-armor systems, small arms and over 16 million rounds of small arms ammunition.  The package is the first new aid for Ukraine since Congress omitted approval for new funding for Kyiv in a spending bill earlier this month.  The Pentagon now has around $5.2 billion worth of military equipment that can be sent to Ukraine through presidential drawdown authority, in addition to around $1.6 billion to replenish its own stockpiles after.  When announcing the new aid, Austin reiterated assurances that the U.S. will back Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”  The new package comes as the White House is considering a move to add Ukraine financial assistance to a request of urgent aid for Israel.  Al Jazeera Wall Street Journal

Putin to Travel to Kyrgyzstan.  Kyrgyzstan has announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit the country on Thursday in what would be Putin’s first known trip abroad since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest in March. The Kyrgz presidential office said Putin will participate in ceremonies marking the 20^th anniversary of the opening of an air base used by Russian forces in Kant.  Putin also is scheduled to travel to Beijing next week for the third Belt and Road Forum.  Reuters

Bulgaria Arrests 12 People Suspected of Exporting Dual-Use Goods to Russia.  Bulgaria arrested 12 people accused of exporting dual-use goods to Russia that can be used by the Russian military in its war against Ukraine.  Such exports are banned under EU sanctions. Interior Ministry Chief Secretary Zhivko Kostev told reporters that those arrested included citizens of Bulgaria, Russia, and Belarus.  The shipments were allegedly not intended for the general Russian army but for special forces units fighting in Ukraine.  The group was reportedly operating in other EU member states, Britain, Serbia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates.  Associated Press

CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Disinformation Runs Rampant on Social Platforms in Wake of Hamas Attack on Israel.  While destructive cyberattacks have not so far figured prominently in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, disinformation spawned by the hostilities has been rampant on social media platforms, especially on X, where fake accounts have spread rumors and false news through bogus accounts attributed to the BBC and Jerusalem Post.   X removed some of the most blatant tweets, but identified disinformation accounts like @sentdefender are still active.  The Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFR) has described @sentdefender as “absolutely poisonous” that often retweeted “uncritically.”  X has said it will take steps to remove new Hamas-affiliated accounts and will coordinate with other platforms “to try and prevent terrorist content from being distributed online.”   EU Commissioner Thierry Breton has written to Elon Musk about the “illegal content and disinformation” circulated by X.  Breton told Musk that he expects him "to be in contact with the relevant law enforcement authorities and Europol, and ensure that you respond promptly to their requests."  Dina Sadek, a DFR Middle East research fellow, said the Telegram messaging app has been a major disinformation outlet because content is sent as a text message and the platform does not impose restrictions on how often users can post and because content is sent as a text message.  Sadek added that “the second that you think something happened you can give them a boost and give them pictures from the incident.”  Herb Lin, a disinformation scholar at Stanford predicts that the disinformation and propaganda campaign will intensify, with Russia probably supporting Hamas.  “They have a quick reaction disinformation force, Lin said.  “They have the ability to react promptly to this sort of stuff and the first people to get on the air tend to dominate the messages for a while.”  The Record Wired New York Times    

Overhead at the 2023 Threat Conference: Top NSA Cyber Official Says Cyber Has So Far Played Little Role in Hamas-Israeli Conflict.  Rob Joyce, director of cybersecurity at the National Security Agency, told the Cipher Brief Threat Conference on Saturday that so far, cyber operations have played little role in the Hamas-Israeli conflict, but he added that could change.  Joyce said there have been minor cyber assaults, including denial of service attacks and defacement of websites, but “we’re not seeing real [nation] state malicious actors.”  However, without naming specific groups or countries, he predicted “there will be others that pull into this fight.”  Bloomberg Wall Street Journal

Former National Cyber Director Views Cyber Role in Israel-Hamas Conflict.  Chris Inglis, former U.S. national cyber director, told a conference in Washington that cyberattacks can be expected to emerge out of the hostilities involving Israel and Hamas, but he has full confidence that the “Israelis are perfectly capable of defending themselves and asserting their viewpoints on that battlefield.”  Speaking at the Predict 2023 conference, Inglis noted that cyber permeates every sector, and in the case of the Israel-Hamas conflict, two key areas are involved – digital infrastructure and the “information war.”  Referring to the other ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Inglis said “I thought the Ukrainians would buckle under the technological superiority of the Russians.”  But, he added, the war has demonstrated that defense can hold against offense, especially since Ukraine has shown “that technology matters, and expertise matters more — a lot more.”  Turning to AI, Inglis warned of allowing the technology to make value judgments, and that some regulation may be necessary so that developers and vendors can be held responsible for possible misuse.  However, Inglis added, “the most amazing thing about AI…is the speed of its advancement…it’s an entirely different thing.”  TheRecord

Southeast Asian Countries Pursuing Hands-Off Approach to AI Regulation.  Southeast Asian countries are taking a less restrictive approach to regulation of artificial intelligence than that of the European Union, which has been working for adoption of international rules that are more stringent. A confidential draft of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ guide to AI ethics and governance is being circulated to technology companies for their input and is expected to be finalized during the ASEAN Digital Ministers Meeting in January. In contrast to the EU’s AI Act, the ASEAN draft guide asks companies to take countries’ cultural differences into consideration. As with all ASEAN policies, the guide would be voluntary and meant only to guide domestic regulations. Tech executives say ASEAN’s comparatively relaxed approach is more business friendly and allows for more innovation.  Reuters

New State Threat Actor Behind Cyberattacks on Key Sectors in Taiwan, Vietnam, U.S.  Key commercial sectors in Taiwan, Vietnam, and the U.S. are being targeted by a previously unknown government threat actor, according to Symantec research.  Manufacturing, IT, and biomedical facilities in Taiwan and unnamed organizations in Vietnam and the U.S. – along with an unidentified Pacific island – have been hit by a group tracked as “Grayling,” which is deploying custom-made malware in its hacking attacks.  The motive for the intrusions, Symantec says, is espionage rather than financial gain.  Grayling accesses target systems through public-facing infrastructure.  Once a system is penetrated, Grayling uses an open source tool called Havoc to download payloads, execute commands, and escalate privileges.  Symantec assesses that intelligence gathering is the goal of Grayling operations.  Researchers noted that “the sectors the victims operate in…are also sectors that are most likely to be targeted for intelligence gathering rather than for financial reasons.”  While Symantec did not identify the state actor behind the attack, it said “heavy targeting of Taiwanese organizations does indicate that they likely operate from a region with a strategic interest in Taiwan.”  The Record

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Australian Journalist Released After Three Years in China Detention.  Australian TV anchor Cheng Lei returned to Australia on Wednesday after being held in China for over three years on espionage charges.  Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced her release and return home.  Cheng, a former business anchor for China’s state broadcaster CGTN, was accused of illegally sharing state secrets with a “foreign organization” in May 2020.  Chinese authorities did not share more details on the allegations against her, saying only that she pleaded guilty and was sentenced to 35 months in prison.  Cheng denied the allegations against her.  China was criticized for the lack of transparency in the court process for Cheng’s case.  Australia’s ambassador to China was denied entry to the start of Cheng’s trial in Beijing in March last year.  Cheng’s release comes as relations between Australia and China start to thaw, with increasing trade and a new government in Canberra.  CNN New York Times Reuters South China Morning Post

U.S. Navy Sailor Pleads Guilty to Accepting Bribe to Share Military Data with China.  Petty Officer Wenhen “Thomas” Zhao, a U.S. Navy sailor, pleaded guilty on Tuesday to accepting almost $15,000 in bribes from a Chinese intelligence officer in exchange for U.S. military data.  Court documents show that Zhao admitted to sending the officer photographs of unclassified private U.S. military information, including images of plans for U.S. military exercises in the Indo-Pacific and electrical diagrams and blueprints for a radar system stationed at a U.S. military base in Okinawa, Japan.  Zhao pleaded guilty to conspiracy and receiving a bribe and faces a maximum of 20 years in prison on the charges.  He was arrested in August.  The U.S. has accused China of numerous acts of espionage and cyberattacks, which Beijing has rejected.  Reuters

NATO Says Will Respond if Baltic Sea Pipeline Leak Deliberate.  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday that the alliance will investigate the damage to a gas pipeline and telecommunications cable running between Finland and Estonia and will mount a “determined response” if the damage is found to have been caused deliberately. The damage to the Balticconnector pipeline and cable was confirmed yesterday, and Helsinki said the damage likely was caused by “outside activity.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called news of damage to the pipeline “disturbing,” and said there have been “dangerous precedents” in the Baltic. He cited explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022, which Moscow blamed on the U.S. and U.K.  Reuters Reuters

Poll: More Than 90 Percent of Japanese Have Unfavorable Opinion of China.  A poll conducted by the think tank Genron NPO in August and September found that more than 92% of respondents said their opinion of China is “not good,” a five percentage point increase from last year and the second-highest level since the survey began in 2005. The poll showed that about 63% of Chinese respondents viewed Japan negatively, about the same percentage as last year. Asked what is preventing the two countries from repairing relations, 36.7% of Japanese respondents cited a dispute over the recent release of treated wastewater from the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant. Only 5.8% of Chinese respondents cited that issue. In August, the Japanese government warned citizens to be careful when visiting China as there were reports of harassment as a result of the water release. Genron NPO polled 1,000 Japanese people and 1,506 Chinese people for the survey.  Bloomberg

U.S. and Venezuela Close to Sanctions Relief Deal.  Informed sources say the U.S. and Venezuela are close to an informal agreement that would ease some sanctions against Caracas next year. As part of the deal, Venezuela would announce democratic reform in its presidential elections, including removal of a ban on opposition candidates running for the presidency. The agreement also reportedly includes promises by President Nicolas Maduro to allow international observers to oversee the general election and to release dozens of political prisoners. The sources say that once the conditions are met, the U.S. would be open to removing penalties on Venezuela’s central bank and its development bank, which would allow Venezuela to begin discussions with financial institutions to recover at least $3 billion held in accounts in Europe. The sources also say the sanctions relief being considered by the Biden Administration would extend to some members of Maduro’s entourage. Venezuelan government representatives are expected to reach an agreement with opposition leaders before opposition primary elections scheduled for October 22.  Bloomberg

Canadian Diplomats Remain In India as New Delhi’s Deadline for Their Withdrawal Passes.  A deadline imposed by India on Canada for the removal of 41 of its 62 diplomats in New Delhi passed yesterday without the Canadians’ departure and talks between the two countries over the issue continue. Last month, India ordered Canada to withdraw the diplomats after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there were “credible allegations” that the Indian government may be linked to the murder of Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijar near Vancouver in June. India had warned that diplomats remaining after the deadline would lose their diplomatic immunity.  Financial Times

U.S. Declares Niger Military Takeover a Coup, French Troops Start Withdrawing, Top U.N. Official in Niger Asked to Leave.  The U.S. on Tuesday officially declared the military takeover in Niger in July a coup d’etat. This move suspends current assistance and limits future aid to the country.  An official said the decision came “because over the last two months, we've exhausted all available avenues to preserve constitutional order in Niger.”  Biden administration officials say there are no plans to change U.S. troop presence despite the designation.  Over the past two decades, U.S. troops have trained Nigerien forces in counterterrorism and operated two military bases in the country.  French forces have started to withdraw from Niger, and the junta has now also demanded the head of the U.N. diplomatic mission in the country — U.N. resident coordinator Louise Aubin — to leave, claiming that the U.N. excluded Niger from its General Assembly last month.  Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post

Putin, Malian Leader Hold Phone Call.  Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed trade and security with Mali’s interim President Assimi Goita on Tuesday, marking their third phone conversation in less than two months. The frequency of these calls underlies Russia’s push to build its influence in West Africa.  The Kremlin said in a statement that the two leaders discussed “mutual commitment to further strengthening trade and economic ties, security cooperation and the fight against terrorism”. Goita reflected the same sentiment in a post on social media that said “I expressed my gratitude for all the support that Russia provides to Mali”. Russia’s Wagner Group has been active in supporting Goita’s administration in Mali.  Reuters

U.S. Senate leader Schumer Cutting Trip to Asia Short.  U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is cutting his trip to Asia short and returning to the U.S. on Thursday due to the events in Israel, according to his spokesperson. Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish elected official in the U.S., was leading a Congressional delegation to East Asia.  He met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in China and is expected to move his meeting with South Korean President Soon Suk Yeol earlier to Wednesday.  The group had been expected to also visit Japan.  Reuters

Russia Loses Vote for Seat on U.N. Human Rights Council.  Russia failed to regain its seat on the U.N. Human Rights Council on Tuesday.  Moscow lost the vote for the two council seats for Eastern European countries to Bulgaria and Albania.  The vote was a key test of Western efforts to diplomatically isolate Russia and comes as the U.N. investigates allegations that Russia has committed a wide range of war crimes in Ukraine.  Russia’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the U.N. told Russian state media that the U.S. led an “unprecedented” campaign to ensure Russia lost the vote.  Reuters

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