10:00 AM ET, Wednesday, August 30, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
Former-CIA Software Engineer’s Conviction in WikiLeaks Scandal is Mostly Upheld. The conviction of former-CIA software engineer Joshua Schulte, who allegedly carried out the largest theft of classified materials in the agency's history, was largely upheld by US District Judge Jesse Furman, though his obstruction charge was discarded. In July of 2022 Schulte was convicted on four counts of espionage and computer hacking and one count of dishonesty to FBI agents related to his involvement in the notorious “Vault 7 leaks” which deal with how the CIA uses electronics and computer networks to conduct surveillance. Prosecutors say Schulte provided classified information to Wikileaks out of spite over how he perceived the CIA to have treated him. Manhattan Attorney Damian Williams called the crime "one of the most brazen and damaging acts of espionage in American history." Furman said he found "more than sufficient" proof to uphold Schulte's hacking and espionage convictions but threw out the obstruction charge after finding "no meaningful distinction" between the defendant’s case and the 1995 Supreme Court decision, U.S. v. Aguilar. Schulte is currently being held at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center and faces a second trial starting on September 11th for reportedly receiving child pornography. His lawyer has not responded to requests for comment. Reuters
U.S. Commerce Secretary Leaves China Hopeful Despite ‘Uninvestable’ Comment. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo concluded her visit to China on a positive note on Wednesday, saying that she hopes to “see some results” on market access over the next few months to account for American firms’ desire to do business in China. She emphasized that the U.S. does not seek to decouple from China, but noted challenges that American businesses in China are facing, saying that they have described the country as “uninvestable” due to fines, raids and other actions by the Chinese government against them. Raimondo added that the new dialogue on export controls will help reduce misunderstandings affecting business and investment flows while ensuring that Washington continues to target actions that “undermine U.S. national security.” Reuters CNBC
White House Indicates Kremlin Responsible for Prigozhin’s Death. The White House on Tuesday expressed publicly that the U.S. believes the Kremlin was responsible for the plane crash outside of Moscow that reportedly killed Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre commented that “we all know that the Kremlin has a long history of killing opponents . . . It's very clear what happened here,” marking Washington’s closest statement linking Russian President Vladimir Putin to the crash. Last week, President Joe Biden told reporters that he was unsurprised that Prigozhin had died following the Wagner munity and that the U.S. is seeking to “precisely” understand what caused the crash. Reuters
Western Europe
British Parliament Calls Taiwan ‘Independent Country.’ The British parliament for the first time said Taiwan “is already an independent country.” According to a report by the foreign affairs committee of the House of Commons, Taiwan meets all qualifications for “statehood,” including a permanent population, a defined territory and government, and a capability to have relations with other states. The report said that Taiwan only lacks “greater international recognition” and called for greater cooperation with allies and new sanctions to deter Chinese military and economic actions against Taiwan. The lawmakers also called for Taiwan’s admission into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Committee Chairperson Alicia Kearns said the report backs Taiwan’s right to self-determination and “serves as a poignant message to autocratic regimes.” The report is likely to spur an angry reaction from Beijing as British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly visits China, where he called for open lines of communication and argued against isolating China. Politico
Central and Eastern Europe
Russia Reports Ukrainian Drone Attacks Across Six Regions. Russian officials reported Ukrainian drone attacks across six Russian regions on Wednesday in what appears to be the largest drone attack into Russian territory since the start of Moscow’s invasion. Most notably, drones struck an airport in the western Pskov region, which is around 400 miles from the Ukrainian border. The attack in Pskov damaged four IL-76 transport planes with two of the giant aircraft reportedly bursting into flames. Elsewhere, Russia’s military and regional officials say three drones were downed over the Bryansk region, two over the Oryol region, one over the Ryazan region, one over Kaluga, and one more over the Moscow region. No damage was reported in those other attacks, though the airspace around Moscow’s Vnukovo airport was briefly closed. The Russian Foreign Ministry says the attacks will “not go unpunished” and blamed western support to Ukraine as the reason for Kyiv's ability to strike so deeply into Russian territory. Associated Press BBC Reuters South China Morning Post
Russia Launches Massive Missile Attack on Kyiv. Russia launched a massive missile strike on Kyiv early Wednesday, marking the largest attack on the Ukrainian capital in months. The strike, which also targeted the Odessa region, killed at least two people and injured three others. Russia reportedly used drones followed by missiles launched from Tu-95 strategic bombers in the attack. Ukraine’s military said air defenses downed all 28 missiles and 15 of 16 drones launched in the attack, though debris landed on residential buildings, a school and a park. Officials said a separate drone attack in the central Zhytomyr region damaged railway tracks and shelling in the northern Sumy region killed a woman. Reuters
Russia Says Prigozhin’s Plane Crash May Have Been Caused Intentionally, Declines to Investigate Under International Rules. The Kremlin on Wednesday said that its probe into last week’s plane crash that reportedly killed Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin included the possibility that it was caused deliberately, marking the first time that Moscow has suggested his death may have been an assassination. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Moscow was considering multiple versions of what caused the crash, including, “a deliberate atrocity." The Russian government has denied accusations that it ordered the death of Prigozhin. Peskov added that it is best to wait for Russia to complete its investigation of the incident. However, Brazil's Center for Research and Prevention of Aeronautical Accidents (CENIPA) said Moscow told the agency it will not investigate the crash under international rules “at the moment.” CENIPA said it would take part in a Russia-led probe but only if the investigation was conducted under international rules. Both CENIPA and Brazilian plane-manufacturer Embraer, which made the Embraer Legacy 600 jet that crashed with Prigozhin on board, said they want to be involved in an investigation to improve safety and prevent future accidents, not to place blame for the crash. Observers say Russia’s reluctance to facilitate foreign examinations impacts the transparency and credibility of its own investigation. Reuters Associated Press Politico
Four Killed in Incidents Related to War in Ukraine, Kyiv Claims it is Advancing South.. Officials reported that four people in Ukraine were killed Tuesday in incidents related to the war with Russia. Kherson governor Oleksander Prokudin said three people were killed in explosions caused by mines left behind by Russian forces. Officials added that a 45-year-old civilian man in the northeastern settlement of Kupiansk was killed by Russian shelling. Authorities have ordered the evacuation of civilians around Kupiansk, which is the scene of intense combat between Ukraine and Russia. Separately, the commander of forces in Ukraine's Tavria front, General Oleksander Tarnavskyi, says that Ukrainian forces have made some progress, saying, "we have made an advance in the Tavria district . . . we are pushing out the enemy." Kyiv also reported that its troops had made progress close to the village of Verbove in the region of Zaporizhzhia. Hanna Maliar, Deputy Defense Minister, says there was intense fighting in several areas but said Kyiv had seen some success around the eastern city of Bakhmut. Reuters
Expert Perspective: Ukraine Needs ATACMS. Cipher Brief experts Marc Polymeropoulos and John Sipher along with former Republican congressman from Illinois, Adam Kinzinger argue that the U.S. should send Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine in a new piece in The Messenger. The three say that while the Biden administration’s $43 billion in military aid for Kyiv since the start of Moscow’s invasion in February 2022 has been critical for Ukraine and reinvigorated NATO, delays in sending key weaponry due to slow internal deliberation have made the war harder for the Ukrainians and allowed Russian forces to establish entrenched defenses. They say that the war is at a critical inflection point and call on the Biden administration to overcome indecision and bureaucratic roadblocks and send critical weaponry that Ukraine needs. Any further delays will be seen by the Kremlin as weakness. The three noted that ATACMS are the last major item that Ukraine wants and has yet to receive and are urging the immediate transfer of 100 ATACMS to Kyiv. The weapon system would allow Ukrainians to hit Russian command-and-control positions far behind front lines, which they say is needed to defeat the Russian army which relies on top-down control. The three join a growing number of former senior national security officials, including numerous other Cipher Brief experts who say that the ATACMS would prove decisive in helping the Ukrainian military more quickly and effectively bolster its battlefield performance against the Russian military. The Messenger The Cipher Brief
Asia and Oceania
U.S. Military in Talks to Develop Port in Northern Philippines. The U.S. military is reportedly in talks with Manila to build a new maritime port on the remote northernmost Philippine islands. The port, which would face in the direction of Taiwan, would be on the Batanes islands, which is less than 125 miles from Taiwan across the Bashi Channel, which China regularly sends aircraft and naval vessels through. Marilou Cayco, the provincial governor of the Batanes islands, said talks are centered on building an “alternative port” on Basco island to help unload cargo during rough seas in the monsoon season. A senior Filipino military official said the U.S. military may be interested in setting up a radar and other monitoring equipment in the area. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has greatly expanded military base access to U.S. forces under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which he said may be helpful in a military conflict between China and Taiwan due to the Philippines’ proximity to the Taiwan Strait. Cayco said she has not discussed EDCA or radar installations with the U.S. Reuters
U.S. Air Force to Build More Pacific Bases. The U.S. Air Force is incrementally increasing the number of bases it has across the Pacific over the next decade. Brigadier General Michael Zuhlsdorf, the Air Force’s deputy director of resource integration for engineering, logistics, and force protection, said the specific number of bases is dependent on funding. He added that as part of expansion plans, the service has already assessed which bases can be used to “generate an air tasking order” based on “spokes” in the area, referring to the Agile Combat Employment concept in which assets are spread across several small airfields that serve as spokes to larger “hub” ports. Defense One
Japan’s Top Military Officer Says Tokyo Lacks Capacity to Defend Itself. Japan’s chief of staff of the Joint Staff, General Yoshihide Yoshida, told Nikkei Asia that Japan’s Self Defense Forces (SDF) cannot maintain its security with its current capabilities. He said the strategic environment Japan now faces necessitates an expansion in defense capabilities, including missile defenses and counter strike capabilities. Yoshida cited Tokyo’s historic reliance on U.S. deterrence, but cautioned that U.S. support for Japan could face political risks from the U.S. over “whether its alliance with us is worth the cost.” He said to avoid this, Japan should work on “increasing the things (it) can do on its own,” such as monitoring and intelligence-gathering, development of emerging technology like artificial intelligence and quantum cryptography, and alliance-building. Yoshida noted the private sector plays a critical role in this, especially regarding development of technology and new defense equipment. Regarding public support for expanding Japan’s defenses, he said that the Ukraine war and provocations from North Korea and China have increased interest and understanding. Nikkei Asia
U.S. B-1B Bombers Participate in Drills With South Korea, Japan. The U.S. deployed B-1B bombers for separate joint drills with South Korea and Japan on Wednesday. South Korea’s defense ministry said one B-1B flew with South Korean FA-50 jets and U.S. Air Force F-16 fighters in Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises between Washington and Seoul. Japan’s defense ministry added that two other B-1Bs joined drills with 12 Japanese fighters. The exercises come amid increasing trilateral cooperation between the three countries amid tensions with North Korea and China. Reuters
Pentagon’s CTO to Discuss Missile Defense Cooperation with Australia. The Pentagon’s chief technology officer, Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Heidi Shyu, is meeting with Australian defense officials next month to discuss potential cooperation on integrated air and missile defense capabilities. Shyu and Pentagon acquisition chief Bill LaPlante visited Australia earlier this summer to start discussions on opportunities for collaboration. Shyu did not elaborate but said the U.S. Army and Missile Defense Agency are interested in working on the Integrated Battle Command System, which connects sensors and shooters for air and missile defense in Guam. The first wave of equipment for the system is set to arrive in Guam in 2024, so Shyu says the next step is figuring out areas for integration with Australia. Canberra is developing its own Joint Air Battle Management System and is shifting towards investing more in missile defense amid China’s rising influence in the region. In addition to missile defense, Shyu said she is also working on the cooperation on nuclear-powered submarines and other advanced defense technology under the AUKUS deal. Defense News
Middle East and Northern Africa
Saudi Arabia Offers to Resume Funding for Palestinian Authority. Saudi Arabia is reportedly offering to resume financial support for the Palestinian Authority. Saudi officials said the move is an attempt to get Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s support for Riyadh to establish open ties with Israel, which would provide legitimacy to any agreement and preclude accusations that the kingdom abandoned Palestine to pursue its own goals with Israel. Palestinian leaders are reportedly conflicted about the Saudi outreach due to their anger at other Gulf states which established diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020. Officials said a Palestinian Authority delegation is traveling to Saudi Arabia next week to discuss the matter and promote its goals of establishing a Palestinian state. Wall Street Journal
Clash Between Palestinian Forces, Gunmen Kills One. A rare internal clash between Palestinian security forces and militants reportedly killed one person in the occupied West Bank town of Tulkarm on Wednesday. Witnesses said Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces came to the town to remove barricades on the road to its refugee camp. Gunmen had reportedly set up the obstacles as a precaution against Israeli incursions. The PA said residents complained the barricades endangered passersby and a nearby school. An ensuing clash led to a gunfight that killed a Palestinian man who locals said was unaffiliated with either side. The gunmen say the PA killed the man, and the PA said the gunmen opened fire first and prompted security forces to respond. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
Gabon Military Officers Seize Power in Coup. Military officers in the oil-rich Central African nation of Gabon said Wednesday that they staged a coup to remove President Ali Bongo. Bongo was recently re-elected for a third term in an election that the opposition says was fraudulent. Twelve senior officers claiming to represent Gabon’s defense and security forces appeared on national TV to announce that the election results were revoked, borders have been closed, and "all the institutions of the republic" dissolved. The officers, who called themselves The Committee of Transition and the Restoration of Institutions, appeared to be speaking from the presidential palace. They justified their actions by saying the nation is "undergoing a severe institutional, political, economic, and social crisis” and that they “decided to defend peace by putting an end to the current regime" due to "irresponsible, unpredictable governance resulting in a continuing deterioration in social cohesion that risks leading the country into chaos.” In Gabon’s capital of Libreville, hundreds of people gathered in the streets to celebrate the coup, now the eighth in West and Central Africa since 2020. French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said Paris was monitoring the coup “with the greatest attention” and China's foreign ministry has urged that the situation be resolved peacefully. Bongo’s family has wielded power in Gabon for well over 50 years. The exact whereabouts of Bongo are currently unknown, though coup leaders say he is under house arrest. Reuters BBC Al Jazeera France 24 Associated Press
UN Says 183 Killed in Amhara Fighting. The U.N. human rights office said Tuesday that fighting between Ethiopian forces and militias in the Amhara region has killed at least 183 people. The figure marks the most comprehensive independent death toll of the conflict in Amhara. Violence started due to accusations in Amhara that the Ethiopian government is undermining the region’s security, which the government denies. Government forces have regained major towns across the region after initially being driven out by militia, but fighting continues. The U.N. added that more than 1,000 people, most of whom are young people of ethnic Amhara origin, have been arrested nationwide under a state of emergency imposed by the Ethiopian government in response to the fighting. The U.N. called on “all actors to stop killings, other violations and abuses,” and a spokesperson from Ethiopia’s government did not respond to comment. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
International Law Enforcement Action Takes Down ‘QakBot’ Malware Operation. An international law enforcement operation has seized control of Qakbot, a malicious botnet that has been used in ransomware and scam attacks for 15 years. Authorities from the U.S., France, Germany, the Netherlands, Britain, Romania, and Latvia announced the shutdown of Qakbot’s infrastructure as well the removal of the malware from compromised devices. More than 700,000 systems have been infected by Qakbot since 2008, with 200,000 infections in the U.S. alone. Commenting on the shutdown, U.S. Attorney Martin Estrada noted “Qakbot was the botnet of choice for some of the most infamous ransomware gangs, but we have now taken it out.” More than $8.6 million in cryptocurrency was seized by authorities, a fund to which Qakbot victims can apply for compensation. Over the years, Qakbot was used in attacks on critical industries around the world, including financial services in Alabama, Kansas, and Maryland, and a defense firm in Maryland. The Record CyberScoop Reuters
Chinese Hackers Exploit Security Tool Flaw To Attack U.S., Other Government Systems. Mandiant researchers have linked Chinese hackers to dozens of attacks on government organizations in the U.S. and across Asia. Over a period of eight months, the threat actors exploited a since-patched vulnerability in Barracuda Networks’ email security gateway. Even after the vulnerability was detected and remediation efforts began in May, Mandiant reports that the attackers adapted, deploying “new and novel malware” to sustain their presence in the systems of “high priority” targets compromised before the patch was available. Researchers concluded that the hackers took steps to prepare for remediation efforts, allowing them to retain access to selected systems. Several operational characteristics are similar to past campaigns from Chinese government hackers, but Mandiant said it has “not attributed activity tracked as UNC4841 to a previously known threat actor.” The Record
Microsoft, Human Rights Advocates Raise Concerns About Draft UN Cybercrime Treaty. Microsoft and civil liberties advocates are raising concerns about the draft international cybercrime treaty currently being deliberated by more than 145 representatives of UN member states. The current version, known as the “zero draft,” seeks to establish a legal foundation for global cooperation in preventing digital crimes. Microsoft is the first big tech company to join a variety of advocacy groups in expressing opposition to certain clauses of the draft treaty, with potential for human rights abuses of primary concern. Microsoft said treaty provisions allowing government access to personal data could set the stage for “real time surveillance” of anything considered to be a crime. A particular Microsoft interest is creating protections for “ethical hackers,” who identify software vulnerabilities and test system and network defenses. Amy Hogan-Burney, a Microsoft associate general counsel, wrote in an online post that “key criminalization provisions are too vague and do not include a reference to ‘criminal intent,’ which would ensure activities like penetration testing remain lawful.” In addition to Microsoft, groups like the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Human Rights Watch, and Internet advocate Access Now participated in a briefing last week during which they cautioned that the treaty could lead to expanded law enforcement surveillance and undermine the privacy and free expression rights of journalists, activists, and marginalized groups. The current treaty deliberations will wrap up on Friday, with a final UN General Assembly vote scheduled for January 2024. CyberScoop Cybernews
Indian Goals for Domestic Quantum Sector, International Collaboration Profiled. The Indian government in April launched the country’s National Quantum Mission (NQM) with an initial investment of $730 million. The program’s goal is to produce “intermediate-scale quantum computers” that will position India to become “one of the leading nations in the development of Quantum Technologies & Applications (QTA).” The NQM encompasses not only domestic quantum computer production but Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) and quantum sensing as a means of advancing the communications and health sectors, along with military applications. Emily Harding, a senior fellow on the CSIS International Security Program, points out that India’s geopolitical, economic, and military circumstances, along with its “wealth of technical expertise,” make quantum development a sensible path to follow. In addition, there are multiple opportunities for international collaboration with global leaders like the U.S., which has been seeking ways to boost initiatives with India. To date, India has arranged major partnerships through the U.S.-India Initiative for Critical Emerging Technologies (IcET), and the EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC). Countries from Singapore to Finland also have proposed collaboration on quantum research. Professor Bhanu Das, director of India’s Centre for Quantum Engineering, Research and Education (CQuERE), noted that while neighboring China is well ahead of India in quantum fields, “the fact that India can collaborate, both in research and education, with the U.S., Europe, Japan, and Australia is a huge advantage.” India reportedly also has been approached by Russian researchers, many of whom lost existing scientific partnerships with Europe and the U.S. after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ruslan Yunusov, co-founder of the Russian Quantum Centre (RQC), recently expressed a desire to develop a joint quantum lab under the auspices of the BRICS group of nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. TechMonitor
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