10:00 AM ET, Thursday, September 21, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES:
Poland to Cease Sending Weapons to Ukraine Over Grain Dispute. Poland, one of Ukraine’s strongest allies, announced on Wednesday that it will cease sending weapons to Kyiv due to the escalating dispute over Warsaw’s ban on Ukrainian grain imports. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland is “no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine,” because Warsaw must instead arm itself with “more modern weapons.” A Polish government spokesperson later said that Poland will only transfer weapons and equipment agreed to before it announced the halt in new military shipments. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia decided to maintain a ban on Ukrainian grain to protect local farmers after the EU said it would not renew the ban. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the UN that the continued ban from some European states was “political theater” that was helping Russia. Poland’s foreign ministry summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to protest Zelensky’s comments as “untrue” and underscore that Poland has been “supporting Ukraine since the first days of the war.” Ukraine has filed lawsuits at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the three countries over the ban. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy said it has engaged with Poland on a Ukrainian proposal to end the dispute, adding that both sides “confirmed the close and constructive relations that they have repeatedly demonstrated” and agreed to hold talks on the issue in the coming days. Zelensky met with EU officials on Wednesday to discuss offering free access for Ukraine’s agricultural products to EU states, particularly via routes through Bulgaria and Romania. Al Jazeera BBC CNN CNN Politico
U.S. Senate Confirms General Brown as Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff. The US Senate on Wednesday confirmed Air Force Chief General CQ Brown as Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Senate voted 83-11 to confirm Brown, maneuvering around a hold on military promotions and appointments led by Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville. President Joe Biden nominated Brown, who will replace Joint Chiefs Chairman Army General Mark Milley, for the post months ago. Tuberville, however, has blocked the approval of 300 military nominees since February over the Pentagon’s reproductive health policies. To start breaking the impasse, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer began the time-intensive process of having the Senate consider individual nominations, forcing the vote on Brown. The Senate is also set to confirm General Randy George as Army Chief of Staff and General Eric Smith to be commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps this week. John Kirby, White House national security spokesman, expressed relief at Brown’s confirmation but said “it doesn’t fix the problem or provide a path forward for the 316 other general and flag officers that are held up by this ridiculous hold.” Tuberville said Wednesday that he will continue to delay the other nominations, an obstruction that has prevented junior officers from advancing and impacted retirement, lifestyle, pay, and future assignments. Al Jazeera Reuters USNI News
U.S. Sends Autonomous Naval Vessels to Western Pacific. The U.S. Navy deployed two prototype drone ships to Japan for their first deployment in the western Pacific. The ships are testing surveillance and attack capabilities that could counter China’s growing naval fleet. The vessels are part of the Ghost Fleet Overlord project, which aims to integrate autonomous operations into the Navy. U.S. Navy Commander Jeremiah Daley said such unmanned surface vessels could form groups to substitute larger ships like destroyers in hunting enemy targets. The Pentagon has moved to invest in a network of AI-powered technology over the next two years as competition ramps up with China to develop autonomous military systems. Wall Street Journal
Syria’s Assad Visits China. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad arrived in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou on Thursday, marking his first visit to China since 2004 and since the start of Syria’s civil war 12 years ago. Assad is attending the opening ceremony of the Asian Games and is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. Analysts say Assad’s trip is aimed at furthering his legitimacy and ending diplomatic isolation amid Western sanctions, as well as getting support for Syria’s economic reconstruction. Experts say China is engaging with Syria as part of efforts to challenge the U.S. Syria is also strategically located between Iraq, a major supplier of oil for China; Turkey, a key connection in Asia-Europe economic corridors; and Jordan, which often acts as a regional mediator. Syria is also a small producer of oil, but Chinese investment is unlikely due to the country’s ongoing security and financial issues. Beijing has vetoed U.N. motions condemning Assad ‘s crackdown on anti-government demonstrations and actions in the Syrian civil war, but has not provided military support to Assad’s regime, like Iran and Russia have. Associated Press Financial Times Reuters New York Times
Saudi Uranium Enrichment Considered for Israel Deal. Top Israeli nuclear and security specialists are reportedly working with U.S. negotiators on a proposal to establish a U.S.-run uranium-enrichment operation in Saudi Arabia as part of a deal to establish diplomatic relations between the two Middle Eastern countries. Riyadh has said any normalization deal with Israel should include provisions that help the kingdom develop a civilian nuclear program with enrichment in Saudi Arabia. U.S. and Israeli support for Saudi enrichment would mark a radical change given past policy seeking to prevent nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Critics have said helping Saudi Arabia’s nuclear program will start a nuclear arms race in the region. Riyadh has said it will seek a nuclear weapon if Iran obtains one. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in a Fox News interview on Wednesday, “If they [Iran] get one, we have to get one… For security reasons and for balancing power in the Middle East.” He added that “everyday we get closer” to normalization with Israel. Al Jazeera Reuters Times of Israel Wall Street Journal
U.S. Overhauling Undersea Spy Network. The U.S. has revived the Integrated Undersea Surveillance System (IUSS) to boost its anti-submarine and maritime surveillance capabilities. The initiative aims to address escalating threats from China’s navy and leverage both emerging technologies and lessons learned from Ukraine’s use of maritime warfare tactics to counter invading Russian forces. The revamp involves modernizing the U.S. network of underwater acoustic spy cables and upgrading surveillance ships with new sensors and subsea microphones. In addition to the upgrades, the Navy is also investing in new technologies such as unmanned sea drones to listen for enemy craft; portable “underwater satellite” sensors on the seafloor to detect submarines; satellites that track radio frequencies of ships’ and artificial intelligence software to analyze maritime spy data. A spokesperson for the U.S. Fifth Fleet said the program aims to boost global maritime surveillance from “space to seabed.” U.S. Navy sources say China is also working on its own maritime spy program, dubbed the Great Underwater Wall. The system includes cables with sonar listening sensors on the seafloor of the South China Sea, backed by a fleet of underwater and surface sea surveillance drones. China’s defense and foreign ministries did not comment on the matter. Reuters
Hezbollah is Operating in Latin America. What Does That Mean for the U.S.? Recent U.S. sanctions on Hezbollah operatives and financiers in Colombia, Belize and Venezuela have underscored the presence of the militant group in Latin America. Experts told The Cipher Brief that Hezbollah has decades-old networks in Latin America, to raise revenue through illicit activities like drug trafficking and money laundering, as well as to provide logistical support to terror plots. Experts added that regimes in the region welcome Hezbollah’s networks, which help facilitate their own illicit activities. Experts also warned that Hezbollah’s presence in Latin America will help Iran expand its influence in the region. To address this threat, experts suggested various solutions, including trying to convince regimes in the region that Hezbollah’s illicit activities run counter to their domestic interests, boosting law enforcement cooperation in the region, and rethinking sanctions in the region. The Cipher Brief
UPDATES FROM THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY:
Haiti and Kenya Establish Diplomatic Relations. Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry announced Wednesday that Haiti and Kenya have established diplomatic ties amid discussions on the prospect of Nairobi heading a UN-backed multinational security force to help Haitian police counter intensifying gang violence. Kenyan President William Ruto met Henry at the Kenyan mission in New York to sign the deal to set up relations. Ruto said Kenya was “committed to deploying a specialized team” to analyze the situation and prepare tactics to enact long-term solutions on gang violence in Haiti. U.S. Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian Nichols said that the UN Security Council could vote on approving a security support force for Haiti in about a week. Kenya in July said it would answer Henry’s call for international assistance, which the Haitian government first requested in October. Many critics question both Kenya’s record with human rights abuses and whether a security force of less than 10,000 personnel is sufficient to counter the growing hostility and danger in Haiti. Reuters Washington Post
Marshall Islands Repeats Call for U.S. to Confront Nuclear Legacy for Pact on Future Ties. Marshall Islands President David Kabua said Wednesday that his nation was “cautiously optimistic” it would be able to finalize an agreement on future relations with the US, but insisted that Washington must first address the consequences of harmful nuclear testing in the Pacific in the 1940s and 50s. Kabua, speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York, said the U.S. must understand that the “Marshallese people require that the nuclear issue will be addressed” in order to renew the Compact of Free Association (COFA) deal, which expires on September 30. The agreement gives the U.S. access to massive, strategic stretches of the Pacific in exchange for economic and defense aid to the Marshall Islands. The U.S. also has COFAs with Micronesia and Palau. Kabua insisted that the U.S. cannot “ignore the wishes of our people,” as islanders still suffer from the health and environmental effects of U.S. nuclear tests. Washington, in efforts to maintain its influence and counter Chinese influence in the region, plans on committing $7.1 billion over 20 years to the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau. Reuters
Congo’s President Asks UN Peacekeeping Mission to Withdraw by December. Democratic Republic of the Congo President Felix Tshisekedi, speaking at the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday, requested that his government accelerate the withdrawal of a UN peacekeeping mission to guarantee it begins at the end of this year. The MONUSCO mission has operated in the Central African nation since 2010 to address insecurity and counter the militia groups. The mission has grown increasingly unpopular in recent years, with critics saying it has failed to protect civilians from armed groups. Tshisekedi asserted that “it is to be deplored that peacekeeping missions deployed for 25 years... have failed to cope with the rebellions and armed conflicts.” He said he seeks to bring “forward the start of this progressive withdrawal from December 2024 to December 2023.” In an army clampdown on violent anti-UN protests in Congo’s capital Goma last month, more than 40 people were killed and dozens more injured. Reuters
Check yesterday’s afternoon report for highlights from day 2 of the UN General Assembly, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call to strip Russia of its veto power in the UN Security Council, and President Joe Biden’s meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Stay tuned for today’s coverage of the UNGA in this afternoon’s report.
THE UKRAINE UPDATE:
On the Battlefield
Russia Launches Attacks Across Ukraine, Targets Energy Infrastructure. Russia launched missile strikes across Ukraine on Thursday. Ukrainian officials reported the attacks killed two people and injured another five in the southern city of Kherson; wounded eight people in the capital Kyiv; injured two people and damaged civilian infrastructure in the northeastern city of Kharkiv; destroyed a hotel and injured seven people in the central city of Cherkasy; and damaged industrial areas in the western city of Lviv. The strikes included Russia’s first attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure in months. Ukraine’s state energy provider Ukrenergo said the attacks led to “partial blackouts in Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions.” Authorities have restored main power grids in Rivne and Zhytomyr and are working on repairing others. CNN CNN
Ukraine Conducts ‘Massive’ Missile Strike on Crimea Airfield. Sources say Ukraine’s Security Services (SBU) and the Ukrainian Navy launched a massive strike against the Saki military airfield in Crimea on Wednesday night. The airbase reportedly hosts a Russian naval aviation regiment, part of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. It suffered an extensive attack in August 2022. SBU sources said that at the time of the latest attack, “there were at least 12 combat aircraft [Su-24 and Su-30 jets] and Pantsir MPADS [air defense systems] at the airfield.” The sources said the base was also used to train operators of Iranian-made Mojaher drones. Sources said the attack “caused serious damage” and that Ukraine used drones and Neptune missiles in the assault. CNN
Russia Claims To Have Downed 19 Ukrainian Drones. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Thursday that it had “thwarted” multiple attacks by Ukrainian drones targeting Crimea and over the Black Sea, as well as regions in Russia. The ministry said air defenses downed 19 Ukrainian drones over the Crimea Peninsula and Black Sea, and one drone each over the Kursk, Belgorod and Oryol regions. Al Jazeera CNN
From Russia
Lavrov Meets IAEA Chief on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Laroche met with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Wednesday to discuss the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the meeting covered “safety issues” at the plant, blaming Ukraine for threatening the safe operation of the facility. The ministry added that Lavrov also raised the supply of depleted uranium shells from the “collective West” to Ukraine can cause “a long-term destructive effect.” Russian forces occupied the nuclear plant at the start of their invasion in February 2022. Both Kyiv and Moscow have accused each other of shelling the facility. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky inferred earlier this week that Russia is turning the plant into a “real dirty bomb.” CNN
State of Play
Zelensky Meets Wall Street CEOs On Reconstruction. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday met with U.S. CEOs and business leaders in Manhattan for talks on Ukraine’s post war reconstruction, according to a source familiar with the situation. The meeting, organized by JPMorgan Chase and was hosted by Asset & Wealth Management CEO Mary Callahan Erdoes, Workplace CEO Vince LaPadula and alternative investments boss Anton Pil. Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, billionaire Mike Bloomberg, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, billionaire Barry Sternlicht, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, and hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman attended the meeting. Sources said the meeting was productive and widely covered manners regarding support and investments for the rebuilding of Ukraine and its economy. The talks came after Zelensky called for global unity in the face of Russian hostility at the UN General Assembly. Zelensky is expected to meet US President Joe Biden at the White House on Thursday. CNN Fox Business
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:
Voting Machine Makers Increase Cybersecurity Stress Tests. Major U.S. voting equipment companies are employing cybersecurity experts to stress-test their machines to prepare for misinformation around the 2024 election. The efforts — known as coordinated vulnerability disclosure — aims to promote greater transparency on the preparation of the machines to preemptively combat conspiracy theories about the reliability of election equipment. Initial tests had cybersecurity researchers try to stuff ballot boxes and take down electronic pollbooks used to process voters in attack scenarios against machines from Election Systems & Software, Hart InterCivic and Unisyn. Results are still being processed, but sources say election vendors are already improving security protocols in response. CNN
Canada Says Cyberattack Behind Airport Disruptions. The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) said it believes a pro-Russian hacking group was behind a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack that disrupted border checkpoints and electronic gates at several Canadian airports on Sunday. CBSA said all systems were restored within a few hours. Russian hacking group NoName057(16) last week claimed responsibility for cyberattacks on several Canadian organizations, including CBSA, Canadian Air Transport Security Authority, and more government and financial institutions. CBSA did not directly attribute the airport disruptions to NoName057(16) or disclose how the DDoS attack breached the border checkpoint systems, which are supposed to be on a closed circuit. The Record
MGM Resorts Computers Back Online After Shutdown Following Cyberattack. MGM Resorts brought its computer systems back online after a 10-day shutdown following the discovery of a cyber intrusion. The incident disrupted hotel reservations and credit card processing at the casino giant. Analysts and academics are now reportedly assessing impacts of the attack. Details about the MGM breach were not disclosed, including the extent of the attack and how much it cost the company. Rival casino owner Caesars Entertainment also disclosed last week to federal regulators that it was hit by a cyberattack that potentially compromised personal information of tens of millions of customers. Caesars reportedly paid $15 million of a $30 million ransom sought by the Scattered Spider hacking group for the stolen data. Associated Press
No Germanium or Gallium Exported from China Following Export Curbs. China exported no germanium or gallium products in August, according to customs data released on Wednesday. In comparison, in July, China exported 8.63 metric tons of germanium and 5.15 metric tons of gallium. The development came after Beijing imposed export controls on the chip making metals at the start of August as part of the chip war between the U.S. and China. The new rules state that exporters of germanium and gallium products must obtain an export license for dual-use items and technologies. Applications for the permits can reportedly take around 45 working days to obtain. Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:
India Orders Cuts to Canada’s Embassy Staff, Suspends Visa Services for Canadians. The Indian government has stopped issuing visas to Canadian citizens and ordered Canada to cut their embassy staff as tensions rise over the killing of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil, which Ottawa has blamed on New Delhi. The Indian government has rejected the accusation as “absurd.” Canada’s visas to India’s citizens still remain open. BBC CNN Washington Post
Iran’s Raisi Says ‘No Problem’ With IAEA Inspections. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said on Wednesday that Iran has “no problems” with inspections from the U.N.’s International Atomic and Energy Agency (IAEA), days after Tehran prevented multiple IAEA inspectors from entering the country. Raisi told reporters that only “inspectors that are trustworthy can continue their work in Iran.” Iran’s decision to bar the inspectors was in response to a call led by the United States, Britain, France, and Germany at the IAEA Board of Governors for Tehran to cooperate immediately with the nuclear watchdog on issues such as why uranium traces were found at several undeclared sites. IAEA’s chief Rafael Grossi called the move by Iran “disproportionate and unprecedented.” Iran barred the inspectors under the process of “de-designation,” which permits the vetoing of inspectors. Reuters
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