10:00 AM ET, Thursday, July 27, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
U.S. House Advances AUKUS Authorizations. The U.S. House of Representatives advanced a series of authorizations needed to implement a trilateral agreement known as the AUKUS deal, which would enable Australia to obtain its own nuclear-powered submarine fleet, while deepening military cooperation with the U.S. and U.K. The House Foreign Affairs Committee approved an authorization to sell up to two nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines to Australia in spite of criticism by other lawmakers concerning the industry’s ability to meet production goals. However, the authorizations would give the U.K. and Australia a blanket export control exemption, which Britain and Australia have argued is necessary for better AUKUS cooperation on advanced technologies. The Navy currently aims to build two Virginia-class submarines and one Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine per year but is currently only producing 1.2 Virginia vessels per year. The U.S. Senate is currently debating the authorization. Sen. Roger Wicker, however, is thought to be a road-block in the process, holding up full authorization unless Congress supplies additional funding to the submarine industrial base. Wicker’s office confirmed the hold but said that it does not apply to other parts of the AUKUS deal, such as training or the export control waivers. Defense News
US Commerce Secretary Says Business Revenues Will Be Impacted by Measures Targeting China. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on Wednesday warned that while the Biden administration is seeking to carefully target U.S. export controls and trade restrictions against China, the measures will also negatively affect revenue streams for US companies. She maintained that the measures will not be so broad that American companies are fully blocked from China, or that China will be forced to do business with other countries’ firms entirely. She also said such measures, especially regarding semiconductors, are not about denying China’s access to “commodity technology,” but are instead aimed at ensuring sophisticated U.S. technology is not used “to advance their military.” Her comments come days after meeting with U.S. chip company executives, and as the U.S. considers measures to control outbound investment. Reuters
Western Europe
France’s Macron Warns Against ‘New Imperialism’ in Pacific, Taking Aim at China. French President Emmanuel Macron warned against what he called “new imperialism” in the South Pacific, targeting China’s growing presence and influence in the region. Speaking during a visit to the South Pacific nation of Vanuatu on a tour of the region, Macron said that France can be an alternative power to work “shoulder-to-shoulder” with countries in Oceania to help them preserve their “sovereignty and independence.” In a veiled reference to China, Macron said the region is beset by “predation of big powers” through illegal fishing and “loans with Leonine conditions” which led to strangling debt. Macron’s comments and South Pacific tour comes amid growing U.S.-China competition in the region. Macron will head to Papua New Guinea on Thursday evening, shortly after U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit to the strategic Pacific Island nation. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Steps Up Counteroffensive in South. Ukraine is escalating its offensive on the southern front in a bid to break through entrenched Russian defenses. The Ukrainian military’s general staff says Ukrainian forces are focused towards Melitopol and Berdiansk, two cities adjacent to the Sea of Azov that Kyiv seeks to reach to divide Russian-occupied territory. Meanwhile, in the east, Ukrainian troops continue to push towards Bakhmut. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday evening that there have been “very good results” in the latest Ukrainian offensives, while Russian President Vladimir Putin said “hostilities have intensified significantly.” U.S. officials previously told The New York Times that the southern assault is the “main thrust” of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which one official called “the big test.” Some Ukrainian officials are cautioning against these assessments, saying the counteroffensive should not be seen as a decisive battle but as a part of a long series of operations against Russian forces. Russia responded to Ukraine’s southern push with artillery and air strikes in the region. Associated Press Bloomberg New York Times
Ukraine's Zelensky visits Dnipro. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the city of Dnipro in southeastern Ukraine on Thursday. Zelensky said his meetings with military leaders and government officials focused on the situation on the front, securing ammunition supplies for troops, strengthening air defenses, and concluding a review of conscription offices following corruption allegations and complaints about the mobilization process. Reuters
Russia Arrests Sailor for Alleged Plot Against Black Sea Fleet Warship. Russia’s FSB security service says that Russia arrested one of its own sailors for allegedly planning a “terrorist attack” against a warship in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The FSB said the suspect was “recruited by a Ukrainian intelligence service” and was caught with two home-made bombs allegedly intended to target a ship “armed with high-precision weapons.” The FSB said the suspect is also accused of passing state secrets to Ukraine. The sailor faces possible charges of terrorism, treason, divulging state secrets, and illegally possessing explosives. Reuters
Russia Charges Two Alleged Ukrainian Agents. Russia’s FSB security service says that a Russian court sentenced two alleged agents for Ukrainian intelligence to 15 years in a penal colony for espionage. The FSB did not name the accused, saying only that they had been detained last year on suspicion of espionage and involvement in deaths of Russian troops and destruction of Russian military equipment in Ukraine. Reuters
Moldova Expels 45 Russian Diplomats. The Moldovan Foreign Ministry on Wednesday announced the expulsion of 45 Russian diplomats due to “ongoing tensions and unfriendly actions,” and said that the expelled envoys must leave by August 15th. Russia has denounced the dismissal, with foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova saying the removal would “not go unanswered.” Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu said that “for many years we have been the object of hostile Russian actions and policies. Many of them were made through the embassy.” Moldova has repeatedly accused Moscow of espionage and supporting opposition groups since the beginning of the war with Ukraine. BBC Politico
Asia and Oceania
China Proposes Joint Military Drills with Philippines. Philippine Military Chief Romeo Brawner says that China is proposing joint military exercises with his country. Brawner said that the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines offered him several “white papers” on the offer and that he will “study” them. Brawner did not suggest if he would accept the offer, though he said Manila establishes ties “with armed forces around the world” as “one way to prevent war.” Brawner did add that any such drills with China would not be held in the South China Sea, where Beijing and Manila have long standing territorial disputes. A Philippine military spokesperson added that discussions on the matter have been “informal,” noting that Brawner made comments about the proposal at an event hosted by the Chinese envoy to Manila to mark the anniversary of China’s People’s Liberation Army. Reuters The Cipher Brief
Defense Secretary Austin Says U.S. Not Seeking Permanent Base in Papua New Guinea. The U.S. does not seek to establish a permanent base in Papua New Guinea (PNG) but hopes to aid in fortifying its capability with a new defense agreement, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Thursday during a trip to the Pacific island nation. In May, the US and PNG signed a defense cooperation deal that institutes a system for the US to develop PNG’s airports and ports for civilian and military use over 15 years. PNG has yet to ratify the deal. Separate from his comments dismissing a possible U.S. base, Austin met with PNG Prime Minister James Marape for talks and to announce the arrival of a US Coast Guard vessel in August in part of another maritime law enforcement agreement. Reuters Associated Press
Australia Gives South Korea's Hanwha $4.7 Billion Defense Deal. Australia on Thursday awarded South Korea’s largest defense company, Hanwha Aerospace Co., a contract worth $4.74 billion for constructing 129 infantry fighting vehicles for the Australian military. Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy described the deal as one of Canberra’s biggest army acquisitions in the country’s history. Conroy told journalists that the "the state-of-the-art vehicles,” which will replace the M113 armored personnel carriers, “will come with the latest generation armor, cannon and missiles, providing the protection, mobility and firepower needed by soldiers in close combat." The vehicles will be manufactured at Hanwha's facilities in Victoria state. According to Conroy, the government will expedite the process so that the first vehicle can be delivered by 2027, and the final by 2028. This contract comes amid a period of increased tension in the Indo-Pacific region as China attempts to expand its presence, and Australia improves its defense abilities. The chief executive officer and president of Hanwha Aerospace, Son Jae-il, said that the deal would deepen SK-Australia ties. Reuters Bloomberg
Microsoft to Provide AI Technology to Japan. Microsoft is set to supply the Japanese government with the AI technology supporting ChatGPT to aid in analysis, clerical work, and processing capabilities in data centers, according to a report by the newspaper Nikkei on Thursday. The Japanese Digital Agency will make available the tech advanced by Microsoft-supported startup OpenAI on a trial basis from the fall, for duties such as running government numbers and stats, preparing minutes, and offering draft responses by government authorities to parliamentary inquiries. The launch will be the first time Microsoft deployed tech overseas, outside of Europe. Nikkei Asia Reuters
North Korean Leader Kim Presents Banned Missiles to Russian Defense Minister. North Korean state media reported Thursday that leader Kim Jong Un brought Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu to an exhibition that presented the nation’s prohibited nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, as the two countries vowed to strengthen ties. The missiles were banned under U.N. Security Council regulations, which China and Russia both approved. Shoigu and a Chinese delegation led by a Communist Party politburo member Li Hongzhong are visiting North Korea this week for “Victory Day,” the 70th anniversary of the end of the Korean war. Shoigu reportedly gave Kim a letter from Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Kim thanked Putin for allowing the delegation to visit North Korea, as the trip fortified the "strategic and traditional" relations between the two nations. Ankit Panda, from the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, voiced concerns that “Shoigu's willingness to be photographed with Kim in the course of this tour … is evidence that Moscow is complacent with North Korea's ongoing nuclear modernization.” Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
White House Says Russian Aircraft Flew 'Dangerously Close' to American Drone in Syria. The White House said Wednesday that this week a second Russian jet flew “dangerously close” to an American drone over Syria, days after a Russian aircraft damaged a different US drone above the Middle Eastern nation, where both countries operate. In a press briefing, White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told journalists that "we have seen the early reports of a second Russian fighter aircraft this week, flying dangerously close to our drone on a defeat-ISIS-mission.” She said that the US remains “focused on the mission to defeat ISIS as is evident by our recent strike against an ISIS leader in Syria this month.” US officials said that Russian jet activities have heightened the pace of perilous incidents with US military aircraft, particularly following Sunday’s accident in which a Russian fighter jet struck an American MQ-9 Reaper drone with a flare that “severely” damaged its propeller, in a breach of international norms and protocols. Reuters CNN
Sub Saharan Africa
Niger Military Claims to Oust President, Seize Power. Niger soldiers claim to have seized power from Niger President Mohamed Bazoum. In a video statement, a man identified as Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane and other apparent military officers said they have “put an end to the regime that you know” to address the country’s deteriorating security situation and “poor economic and social governance.” Niger’s army released a statement saying it will back the coup leaders to “avoid a deadly confrontation.” Bazoum, who was reportedly seized and held in the presidential palace, earlier said on social media that “hard-won gains” in the country will be “protected” by patriots who value democracy. Niger’s foreign minister, Hassoumi Massoudou, tweeted that he will be the interim head of government while the president is held, calling the actions of mutinous soldiers “an attempted coup d’etat” and claiming that “the totality of the army was not behind the coup.” He also said that Bazoum is still in “good health” and is still being held at the presidential palace, though Bazoum’s official whereabouts remain unknown. The U.S., France and Niger’s West African neighbors have condemned the power grab and are calling for the release of Bazoum. CNN Washington Post Reuters Al Jazeera
Putin Promises Free Grain for African Countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin is promising free grain to six African countries — Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Central African Republic, Eritrea and Somalia — over the next 3-4 months. Speaking at a Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, Putin said that Russia is prepared to send 25-50,000 tons of grain to each of the countries following a record grain harvest. His comments come after Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, which facilitated the safe export of Ukrainian foodstuffs through the Black Sea. Putin said Russia is set to replace this Ukrainian grain, claiming that 70% of Ukrainian food exports under the deal had gone to high- or above-average-income countries anyway, while the poorest countries were “screwed over” and received less than 3% of exports. The African Union’s chairman Azali Assoumani said at the summit that Moscow should “facilitate the access of both Ukrainian and Russian food,” adding that African countries are ready to work “on all fronts” with Moscow. Western countries and the UN have criticized Russia for its withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal and subsequent attacks on Ukrainian ports with grain infrastructure. Reuters Wall Street Journal New York Times
Zimbabwe Could Become Fifth Main Lithium Producer With Chinese Investment. Mining consultancy CRU reports that Chinese investments could help Zimbabwe become the world’s fifth biggest producer of lithium. Chinese companies have been looking to African sources to secure future supplies of lithium, which is essential for batteries and green technology. Zimbabwe offers massive opportunities for lithium production because while the country has some of the world’s biggest lithium deposits, mining operations are underway only at one mine, Bikita Minerals. CRU said that investments by Chinese firms could boost Zimbabwe’s capacity to 192,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per year of petalite and spodumene in 2027, up from 13,000 tons per year in 2022. This would push Zimbabwe to 11% of global LCE production, up from 2% in 2020. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
FBI Leaders Highlight China’s Expansive, AI-Enhanced Hacking Operations. FBI leadership told a bureau cybersecurity summit in Atlanta on Wednesday that China poses the greatest cyberthreat to the U.S. Cyber Division Assistant Director Bryan Vorndran said Beijing possesses both the capacity and the ability to weaponize data, capitalizing on emerging AI technology. FBI Director Christopher Wray said China’s hacking operations are bigger than “every other nation combined.” AI, the director noted, empowers threat actors to develop and deploy “increasingly powerful, sophisticated, customizable, and scalable capabilities,” adding “that goes double for China.” China’s long-standing operations to steal personal and commercial data from around the world can now be combined with AI’s features, allowing Beijing to “close the circle,” Wray said. According to Vorndran, the FBI is “hyper-focused” at present on attacks that target data and systems underlying machine learning models, so-called adversarial machine learning (AML) threats. This class of attacks, he said, do not appear often “in the wild,” but the FBI anticipates the AML threat will increase, along with its physical and economic costs, as public and industrial adoption of AI technology expands. In light of this threat development, Vorndran noted that the FBI is “aligning resources” to collaborate with the intelligence community and the private sector in assessing the technology and its potential impacts. CyberScoop
NATO Investigates Leak of Unclassified Documents from Collaboration Portal. A hacking group leak of over 700 internal NATO documents to a Telegram account is being investigated by alliance cybersecurity officials. The documents apparently were obtained from an unclassified information sharing system called the NATO Community of Interest Cooperation Portal. The SiegedSec hacking group posted a link to the documents on Sunday, but it is unclear how they obtained the files, which contain agency personnel names, lists of software, and other information. The hackers posted a message, “Do you like leaks? Us too!” along with screenshots of a document and the link to the set. The SiegedSec message went on to taunt NATO and described the leak as “a retaliation against the countries of NATO for their attacks on human rights…”. The hacking group has been linked to previous politically motivated cyberattacks, including a satellite receiver and industrial control systems attack which it described as being targeted “particularly in states banning gender affirming care.” A SiegedSec member earlier told CyberScoop that the group focuses on messages more than money, adding “most of the time we just want to have fun and destroy stuff.” CyberScoop
Chinese Politburo Encourages Growth of Domestic Internet ‘Platform Companies’. China’s leadership renewed its commitment to leading tech companies during a meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee this week, pledging to promote “standardized, health and sustainable development of platform enterprises,” a reference to Internet firms such as Alibaba and Tencent. The Politburo’s endorsement signaled Beijing’s determination to aid the growth of big tech firms and contribute to China’s uneven economic recovery from the Covid pandemic. The Politburo statement contributed to a surge Tuesday in the Hang Seng Tech Index, encompassing the 30 largest tech companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market. Earlier in July, China’s economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, approved investment projects of 10 leading internet platform companies. Chinese venture capitalist Allen Zhu Xiaohu wrote in an online post that China should encourage leading private tech groups to reach a market value of $1 trillion. “It is particularly important at a time when [the] market value gap is widening between U.S. and Chinese tech companies and U.S. investors are showing little interest in [investing in] Chinese tech firms,” Zhu wrote. South China Morning Post
CISA Director Announces Regional Advisors To Assist Local Election Systems. CISA Director Jen Easterly announced Tuesday that the agency will establish a network of 10 regional election security advisers prior to the 2024 presidential election. The advisers will work with election officials to “build even stronger connective tissue” between CISA and local authorities. The goal of the network, Easterly said, is to provide “tailored guidance and support” to lower the threat of cyber and physical attacks on election infrastructure. In a speech to the National Association of State Election Directors, Easterly noted the “night and day” difference in CISA’s capabilities and preparedness compared with 2016 but noted “there is more we have to do and that we must remain vigilant in the face of new and evolving risk.” In an interview after her speech, Easterly reiterated the reasons for public confidence in election security and integrity — “the physical security safeguards, the cybersecurity safeguards, all of the defense-in-depth mechanisms, the segmentation, and the training that goes on.” State election officials from Pennsylvania and Ohio commented after Easterly’s speech that they welcomed the additional resources focused on election security. An Ohio senior government adviser said the relationship between local authorities and CISA “needs to evolve and grow because our threat evolves and grows. So it’s great to hear what CISA is doing.” The Record Associated Press
Norwegian Critical Infrastructure Entities Warned To Patch Ivanti Vulnerability. Norwegian security officials have issued a warning to critical infrastructure companies and public agencies that their IT systems may be vulnerable to cyberattack like that which impacted 12 government ministries on Monday. Sofie Nystrom, director general of the Norwegian National Security Authority, disclosed that a management software vulnerability in systems operated by Ivanti, a Utah-based company, is under attack by unidentified hackers. The company issued a patch on Sunday for the zero-day vulnerability. Nystrom said companies and agencies are at risk if they do not apply the remedy. On Monday, CISA warned that hackers could exploit the flaw to access personal data and change configurations in affected systems. Organizations that cannot patch the vulnerability should take the Ivanti software offline, advises the Norwegian security agency. Nystrom said the security agency will investigate possible downstream impacts on customers whose business partners have been hacked. Wall Street Journal
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