10:00 AM ET, Thursday, July 20, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
New US $1.3 Billion Defense Package For Ukraine. The U.S. Department of Defense on Wednesday announced a new $1.3 billion weapons aid package for Ukraine. The package includes Phoenix Ghost and Switchblade drones, mine-clearing equipment, four National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and munitions, and 152 millimeter artillery rounds. It is funded by the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program, which purchases weapons from industry rather than draw from American weapons stocks. Since Russia invaded Ukraine at the beginning of 2022, the US has given Kyiv $40 billion in the form of security and military aid. Reuters New York Times Associated Press
China's Washington Envoy Cautions of Response Against Further U.S. Tech Limits. Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng on Wednesday said that China does not seek a tech or trade war, but will retaliate if the US places more restrictions on its chip sector. Speaking at the Aspen Security Form, Xie cited U.S. controls on shipments of chip manufacturing equipment to China to emphasize what he said was the unreasonable curbing of the Chinese economy. He likened U.S. actions to "restricting the other side to wear outdated swimwear in a swimming contest, while you yourself (are) wearing a Speedo.” In response to a question about China’s tit-for-tat sanctions on U.S. tech firms and export controls on chipmaking metals, Xie said that Beijing “cannot simply sit idly by … we will not … make provocations, but we will not flinch from provocations.” Reuters Bloomberg
US Issues Ban Against Iraqi Banks. The U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced a ban on 14 Iraqi banks, according to the Wall Street Journal. The ban is part of a crackdown on the siphoning of U.S. currency to Iran, and came after investigators found evidence of money laundering and false transactions that potentially involved sanctioned individuals. Iraq’s government and private bank association have not commented on the matter. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Surge of Drugs Sends Violence to Record Levels in Costa Rica, Says Security Minister. A rush in cocaine output from Colombia and pressure from Mexican gangs have driven murders toward record levels in Costa Rica, a nation previously known for its safety and stability, said a senior official. The number of murders in the Central American country rose 42% in the first six months of 2023 compared to last year, and 2022 ended with 656 killings. In an interview with Reuters, Costa Rican Security Minister Mario Zamora said “we’ve got a Mexicanization of crime” as violence that echoes the brutality of Mexican cartels — including torture, gang killings, and assassinations by trained hitmen — increases. According to Zamora, two-thirds of murders are related to gang feuds over drug routes, illegal markets, and territorial control. The government last week deployed 100 police officers to Moin, a major port in Costa Rica’s most dangerous province, and introduced novel scanning technology to review goods in an effort to address the security crisis. Reuters
Central American Officials Added to Corruption List. The U.S. State Department added nearly 40 people from El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, including former leaders and officials, to a list of “corrupt and undemocratic actors” on Wednesday. Those on the list include former presidents, such as El Salvador presidents Mauricio Funes and Salvador Sanchez, as well as judges such as Guatemalan judge Fredy Orellana. Prosecutors accused of persecuting journalists were also added to the list. Reuters
Western Europe
EU Meets to Discuss $22 Billion in Ukraine Aid. EU foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss further military support for Ukraine, including a new plan to spend 20 billion euros ($22.4 billion) on weapons, ammunition and other military equipment supplies for Kyiv over the next four years. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the aid would ensure support for Ukraine in the long run. Observers note that the aid would be part of long-term security assurances announced by G7 members at the NATO summit in Vilnius. Al Jazeera
Central and Eastern Europe
Russia Launches Third Night of Attacks on Odesa, Mykolaiv. Ukrainian officials report that Russia attacked the Black Sea port of Odesa, where the Ukrainian navy’s headquarters is located, as well as the major Ukrainian commercial seaport Mykolaiv for the third consecutive night. Ukraine’s military says it downed five cruise missiles and 13 drones out of 19 missiles and 19 drones launched in the attack. The Ukrainian Air Force added that Russia used supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles in the assault. Odesa officials say the attack on the port killed one security guard and injured at least eight people. They added that the attack damaged port infrastructure and residential areas, as well as a building at the Chinese consular building in the port city. Odesa Governor Oleh Kiper said the attack showed that Russia “does not pay attention to anything” in its indiscriminate attacks against Ukrainian civilian targets. In Mykolaiv, officials said Russian air strikes injured nineteen people and damaged residential buildings. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to the attacks saying that “Russian terrorists continue their attempts to destroy the life of our country . . . we will withstand the attacks of Russian evil.” Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelensky’s office, added that the West should respond with more sanctions on Russia and more military aid for Ukraine. CNN Reuters New York Times The Guardian
Ukraine Begins Use of Cluster Munitions. The Washington Post reports that Ukraine has begun using U.S.-provided cluster munitions against Russian forces. Sources say the munitions have been fired against Russian positions in southeastern Ukraine. Military officials have signaled that the controversial weapons will also be used near Russian-occupied Bakhmut. Ukraine has long-requested cluster bombs to break up entrenched Russian defenses which are slowing down Ukraine’s counteroffensive. The U.S. said it was a “difficult decision” to authorize the delivery of the controversial weapons to Ukraine amid concerns about indiscriminate harm to civilians. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last week that the weapons were ultimately provided as a “bridging capability” as the West ramps up ammunition production, adding that Ukraine committed “in writing” that it will not use the weapons against population centers and will monitor areas where the weapons are used to better clean up unexploded ordnance. Both Russia and Ukraine have reportedly used cluster bombs in the war. Washington Post
Ukrainian Commander Confident About Liberation of Bakhmut. Ukrainian General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of the Ukrainian army’s ground forces, said that he is confident that Kyiv can recapture Bakhmut, which was mostly captured by Russian forces in May. Syrskyi told the BBC that the city is now semi-circled by Ukrainian forces and asserted that they can liberate Bakhmut with ten times smaller losses than those suffered by the Wagner Group in earlier attacks on the city. He did not specify a timeline for retaking the city but said that Ukraine will attempt to do so as soon as possible. He added that while his troops on the eastern front are facing the bulk of Russian forces, his troops advance 500 meters to 1 kilometer every day in their counteroffensive. BBC Kyiv Independent
Ukraine Seeking Alternate Grain Routes Amid Russian Warning to Black Sea Ships. Ukraine on Wednesday said it is working to establish alternate Black Sea routes for grain exports through the waters of neighboring NATO-member Romania. The move comes after Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, which facilitated the export of foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports through the Black Sea. Russia has since said that it will view all ships bound for Ukrainian ports as potential carriers of military cargo and that their flag countries will be seen as party to the Ukraine war on the side of Kyiv. The White House has warned that civilian ships in the black sea could be attacked and has evidence that Russia has laid additional sea mines in waters around Ukrainian ports. Reuters Al Jazeera CNN
Kremlin Raises Concern Over Polish Troop Deployments to Border Amid Wagner Training of Belarusian Military. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday said that Russia is worried about Poland’s decision to move troops to its eastern border, saying that the “aggressiveness of Poland is a reality” and warrants “heightened attention” from Russia and Belarus. Poland said earlier this month that it is shifting 1,000 troops to its eastern territory amid Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Warsaw also said it is moving 500 border police to its borders to address a rise in migrant crossings and the presence of Wagner Group fighters in Belarus. The deployments come as Wagner fighters say they are training Belarusian special forces near the Polish border and as members of the mercenary group continue to enter a disused military base in Belarus, according to satellite imagery. The troop movements also come after Poland accused Belarus of sending migrants into Polish territory as part of hybrid warfare to pressure Warsaw. CNN Reuters New York Times
Asia and Oceania
Philippines Defense Chief Says Manila Monitoring Taiwan for Possible Conflict. Philippines Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro on Thursday told reporters that Manila is monitoring the situation between China and Taiwan on a daily basis as part of planning for contingencies for potential conflict in the region. A conflict in the Taiwan Strait will likely significantly impact the Philippines due to Manila’s potential role in hostilities as a critical U.S. treaty ally and because of the estimated 100,000 Philippine nationals living and working in Taiwan. Teodoro added that the Philippines’ contingencies regarding Taiwan are "a multi-agency effort and not only a defense effort.” His remarks came as Taiwan’s defense ministry reported that 22 Chinese military aircraft flew around the island on Thursday. While the Philippines maintains neutrality in the U.S.-China rivalry, its decision to open up military bases to U.S. troops could force it to become involved in any U.S. response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. acknowledged this earlier, saying the bases could be “useful” defensively in such a conflict. The Cipher Brief Reuters
US, Japan, South Korea Planning Trilateral Summit. The US, Japan, and South Korea are arranging a trilateral summit between the leaders of the three countries at Camp David, according to a report by the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri. The meeting is set to take place on August 18. The leaders are expected to discuss strengthening deterrence against North Korea amongst other issues, according to unnamed US and Japanese sources. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Iraqi Protesters Storm Swedish Embassy in Baghdad. Hundreds of people stormed the Swedish embassy in Baghdad on Thursday morning in protest of a planned protest including a Korean burning in Sweden. The protesters, who were seen waving flags of influential Iraqi Shiite cleric and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr, set fire to a part of the embassy before Iraqi security forces dispersed them. The Swedish foreign ministry said all staff members are safe and condemned the attack. The Iraqi foreign ministry initially also condemned the attack and raised concern over recent assaults on diplomatic missions. Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani called a security meeting in response and said Iraqi authorities will prosecute the arsonists and “negligent security officials” over the attack. The Iraqi government later said it would cut ties with Sweden if the protest went ahead. The protest and Koran burning did take place at the Iraqi embassy in Stockholm later on Thursday, and Iraq responded by expelling the Swedish ambassador from Iraq and withdrawing the Iraqi charge d’affaires from Sweden. Associated Press Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
GAO Says Companies Failing to Report on Mineral and Metal Sourcing. The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) reports that U.S. companies buying minerals from countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and its east African neighbors are failing to properly authenticate that the metals do not come from conflict zones and are failing to meet disclosure requirements with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The companies are obliged to inform the SEC and investors that metals such as tin, tungsten, tantalum and gold that are sourced from the region do not come from mines that use child labor or support armed groups. The GAO said many companies produce incomplete reports, while others do not report at all, due to difficulties in due diligence from lack of access to suppliers and complex supply chains, as well as the perception that the SEC will not fault the companies for failing to meet disclosure requirements. The GAO added that 53% of reporting companies could not adequately conclude that their metals had been sourced responsibly last year. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Cybersecurity Firm Observes ‘Alarming Escalation’ in DDoS Attacks in 2nd Quarter. There has been “an alarming escalation in the sophistication” of distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks in the second quarter of 2023, according to the Cloudfare cybersecurity firm. In its latest threat report, the company tracked thousands of DDoS attacks by pro-Russian hactivists, including a 600 percent increase in DDoS campaigns against cryptocurrency websites. According to Cloudfare analysts, recovery from a DDoS incident can take much longer than the attack itself. In June, the tech community identified increasing intensity and sophistication of DDoS attacks, especially those related to the Ukraine conflict and campaigns against providers of financial services. The expansion of threats is fueled by VPN’s and cloud-based services enabling “a new generation of botnets,” Cloudfare reported. The sophistication of attacks previously associated with state-sponsored hackers now seems to be “at the disposal of cyber criminals.” In early June, Microsoft experienced a series of attacks that reflected efforts by threat actors to defeat mitigation systems “by introducing a high degree of randomization on various properties.” According to Cloudfare, DNS laundering DDoS attacks were the most common during the second quarter, which refers to routing malicious traffic through legitimate DNS services. CyberScoop
China Says Seven-Crewmember Reusable Spacecraft Will Launch by 2027. China’s Manned Space Engineering Office has announced that the country’s first reusable spacecraft will be launched by 2027 and will be capable of carrying seven crew members. Yang Liwei, the space agency’s deputy chief design engineer, said the reusable vehicle “will also play a critical role in future construction of China’s space station and moon landing mission.” The space agency said the unnamed spacecraft will operate in both near-earth orbit and deep-space exploration missions. In 2020, a full-size prototype carried by a Long March 5 rocket completed a successful 67-hour test flight. The spacecraft’s construction features materials capable of withstanding re-entry temperatures up to 3,000 degrees Fahrenheit. Once the return capsule’s coating is replaced, it will be readied for a new mission, with the potential that key parts of the spacecraft could be reused up to 10 times, a significant reduction of launch costs. Zhou Jianping, chief designer of China’s manned space program, said the latest design features a “blunt bullet-head shape” with larger internal spaces than earlier versions. “The design has been streamlined from three compartments to two, making it safer and more economical,” he said. Planned missions for the new spacecraft include China’s crewed moon landing program, which is projected to occur by 2030. The spacecraft’s seven crewmember capacity makes it comparable to the new generation of American manned spacecraft, including SpaceX’s Dragon V2 and Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner. South China Morning Post
Apple Developing Large Language Model, Chatbot Service To Compete with Rivals. Apple is developing a generative AI tool intended to compete with chatbot technologies offered by OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and other AI pioneers. The company reportedly has built a “framework” for large language models dubbed Ajax to propel development of what some engineers are calling the Apple GPT chatbot service. Several teams are collaborating on the project, which includes addressing potential AI privacy concerns. According to Bloomberg, Apple has been “conspicuously absent” from the ongoing flurry by high-tech corporations in developing AI prototypes and products. As Bloomberg notes, generative AI has the potential to transform consumer interactions with smartphones, computers and other devices. That creates the prospect that Apple products could be left behind if the company fails to keep pace with AI development. Bloomberg TechCrunch
Vast Russian Surveillance System Degraded by Western Tech Sanctions. The sanctions-imposed absence of Western equipment and software is increasingly hampering Russia’s extensive telecommunications surveillance system. Upgrades and technology elements needed for Russia’s System for Operative Investigative Activities (SORM), are increasingly unavailable, a study by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) reports. Sanctions and export restrictions by Western countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have blocked Moscow’s acquisition of equipment that cannot be produced domestically or through purchases from China. SORM was established in 1995 as an intercept system to monitor telecommunications data, web traffic, and emails. While acknowledging the breadth and effectiveness of SORM operations over time, including its extension to blocking Internet traffic from and access to Western websites and online services, the CEIP study argues that the longer Western sanctions persist, the less effective SORM will be. CEIP senior fellow Gavin Wilde told Recorded Future News that “SORM can really only be as good and powerful as the [Russian] telecommunications providers can be and right now the telecommunications providers are in pretty dire straits.” With Western barriers to technological updates and upgrades in place, “SORM is now beset by a potentially crippling web of dependencies,” Wilde concludes. The Record
AI Experts Fault Plodding DoD Procurement Hampering Technology Adoption. Experts testifying before a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee pointed to the DoD procurement process as one of the obstacles to military efforts to develop and adopt AI technology. Haniyeh Mahmoudian, an ethicist with the DataRobot AI firm, told Tuesday’s House session that the plodding procurement process can lead to “obsolete AI tools” in an environment in which the technology is constantly evolving. The Pentagon has experimented with ways to speed up AI acquisition and deployment, including an online contract exchange called Tradewind. Alexandr Wang, CEO of the Scale AI data processing firm, believes Tradewind shows promise. He told the hearing that in the next AI phase, what is needed is “doubling down on some of these fast procurement methods and ensuring that we continue to innovate.” Wang urged each military branch to establish a new “pathfinder project” or challenge program to accelerate AI applications unique to their specific needs. Wang noted that “to date, the largest AI Pathfinder Project within DOD is still Project Maven, which began in 2017.” Project Maven was formed by the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security and represented DOD’s major computer vision initiative. Wang urged Congress to capitalize on the Maven example and push “each branch of the military to formally identify its next Pathfinder Project and adequately fund it to be successful.” He added there are numerous initiatives under way in the military services that could “benefit from being identified as a Pathfinder Project,” including existing programs like the Army’s Project Linchpin and Navy’s Project Overmatch. C4ISRNet DefenseScoop
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