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10:00 AM ET, Thursday, July 13, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Blinken, China’s Wang Meet.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi on Thursday at the sidelines of an ASEAN meeting in Jakarta, marking the second time the diplomats have met in a month.  The meeting came weeks after Blinken’s trip to Beijing, where he met with Wang.  The meeting is the latest in a series of high-level engagements between U.S. and Chinese officials in a bid to manage relations between their countries: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently visited Beijing; China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao has met with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on trade and drug control issues; and China’s ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng held rare talks with Ely Ratner, U.S. assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, on Tuesday at the Pentagon.  Despite the diplomatic engagement, military communications remain closed off.  South China Morning Post

Austin Says ‘No Doubt’ Ukraine Will Join NATO.  U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Thursday that he has “no doubt” that Ukraine will join NATO after its war with Russia.  Austin said “just about every country” at the NATO summit in Vilnius expressed support for Ukraine’s eventual accession to the alliance.  He added that there is “still work to be done” to support Ukraine to victory over Russia, including through ongoing efforts to upgrade Ukraine’s military equipment and training to reach NATO standards.  Austin also defended the U.S. decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine, saying that Ukraine will use them in “appropriate places” and track their usage.  He also said that Kyiv asked for the weapons to help “defend their sovereign territory” and not to “invade” another country, like Russia.  More widely, Austin said there were “great things accomplished” at the NATO summit, saying that he is “sure [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is very concerned” with the expansion of the alliance, adding that Putin “brought NATO closer to his doorstep.”  CNN

Biden Arrives in Helsinki.  U.S. President Joe Biden arrived in Helsinki on Wednesday to celebrate Finland’s entry to NATO.  During his visit, Biden will hold a joint news conference with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto and engage in a U.S.-Nordic summit with the heads of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, and Denmark. He is expected to discuss advancing tech and climate change.  Ahead of a meeting with Niinisto, Biden called Finland an “incredible asset” to NATO.  Niinisto added that Finland’s membership in NATO brings a “new era in our security,” and also said Biden helped create “unity” at the NATO summit in Vilnius.  Finland’s accession to NATO most notably nearly doubles the border Russia shares with members of the military alliance.  Reuters

Biden, Italian PM to Meet in Washington.  The White House said Wednesday that U.S. President Joe Biden will host Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on July 27.  The two leaders are expected to discuss the Ukraine war and transatlantic cooperation regarding China.  White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre added that the leaders will “reaffirm the strong relationship between the United States and Italy” and also discuss developments in North Africa.  Reuters

Western Europe

Zelensky Says NATO Summit Provided Ukraine With Security Foundation.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Wednesday night that the NATO summit in Vilnius has “established a foundation of security for Ukraine.”  He highlighted that the G7 democracies have given “concrete security guarantees” to Kyiv as it progresses towards eventual NATO membership.  Zelenksy added that “Russian ambition” in the region has been left in “the margins of European history” and that Ukraine has “unity in Europe and, more broadly, in the free world.”  Zelensky’s comments step away from previous criticism of NATO members not providing a concrete timeline for Ukraine’s membership in the alliance.  (Ed. Note: Read our coverage of the end of the NATO summit from yesterday’s afternoon update of the Open Source Report. Read at The Cipher Brief.) Al Jazeera

Swedish Court Rules Against Extradition of Two Turkish Nationals.  Sweden’s top court ruled on Thursday that there are legal obstacles preventing the extradition of two Turkish citizens who Turkey has accused of being part of the Gulen movement, which it designates as a terrorist group.  While the Swedish government has the final approval on the extraditions, the court said the two individuals have not committed terror-related activity under Swedish law, saying that Turkish authorities have charged them only with using a mobile application that is used by the Gulen movement’s members.  The Swedish court said that extradition cannot happen under these circumstances as it must be based on actions that constitute a crime in both Sweden and Turkey.  The court also said that the two face potential persecution if extradited to Turkey.  The Swedish and Turkish governments did not comment on the court ruling, which could jeopardize Sweden’s NATO membership bid, which Turkey only recently said it would approve.  Al Jazeera Barron’s Reuters 

Central and Eastern Europe

Third Night of Drone Attacks on Kyiv Kills One.  Russia launched drone strikes on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv for the third consecutive night on Thursday, killing at least one person and injuring at least two others.  The Ukrainian Air Force said it downed 20 Iran-made Shahed drones and two Kalibr cruise missiles launched in the attack.  Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko reported one death in Kyiv’s Podilskyi district, and city officials reported falling debris hit the Shevchenkivskyi, Podilskyi, Solomyanskyi, and Darnytskyi districts.  Witnesses reported hearing attacks in other parts of Ukraine; Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted a cruise missile in the western Khmelnytskyi region, and a Kalibr missile and several drones were downed in the southern Mykolaiv region, though wreckage hit 10 residential homes and a school there.  There were no reports of casualties in the attacks on other regions.  Al Jazeera  Associated Press

Ukrainian General Confirms U.S. Has Sent Cluster Munitions to Kyiv.  Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnayvskyi told CNN on Thursday that Ukraine has received cluster munitions from the U.S.  Tarnayvskyi said the Ukrainian military “just got them, we haven’t used them yet, but they can radically change [the battlefield.]”  He added that “we will have the advantage,” confidently saying that the weapons will help Ukraine retake territory from Russian forces.  Tarnayvskyi also said there are strict restrictions against the use of the munitions in heavily populated areas, even in Russian-occupied territory, and ensured that Ukraine will track the weapons for eventual de-mining operations.  U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan previously said on Tuesday that the U.S. supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine is “temporary.”  CNN

Top U.S. General Says Russian Leadership Shaky After Wagner Mutiny.  U.S. General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Thursday that Russia’s leadership is suffering “friction and confusion” following the Wagner Group mutiny last month.  Milley said that there is “a lot of drama going on at the very senior levels” though he noted that he is not sure how it will ultimately play out, saying that “there’s many more chapters to be heard on that.”  His comments come after reports of shake ups in the Russian military leadership, though Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have kept their posts.  Milley added that it is unclear what the impact of instability in Moscow will have on the battlefield in Ukraine, saying that he thinks lower-level Russian forces there are more focused on the situation on the ground and daily survival.  Reuters 

Senior Russian General Claims He Was Dismissed After Accusing Military Leadership of Betraying Troops.  Russian General Ivan Popov, former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army in the Zaporizhzhya region, stated Wednesday that he was dismissed from his post after accusing the Russian defense ministry of betraying Russian soldiers by not providing sufficient support. In a statement on Telegram, Popov said that he raised concerns about “the lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery. I also raised a number of other problems and expressed it all at the highest level frankly and extremely harshly."  He claimed that after voicing these concerns, he was dismissed by Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. According to analysts, a public resignation or dismissal of such a senior officer amid an open dispute over the execution of the Russian campaign is unprecedented.  A pro-Kremlin Russian lawmaker, Andrey Turchak, dismissed Popov’s statement as “political show,” saying it was not intended for the public and “posted in private chats” of the 58th Army and that it was only circulated by Andrey Gurulev, another member of the Russian parliament.  Turchak added that Popov maintains a “clear conscience” and asserted that Russia “can be proud of such commanders.”  CNN Reuters

Ukraine Claims Progress in Bakhmut, Other Regions.  The Ukrainian military reports that it is making further advances in the Bakhmut area and has repelled assaults elsewhere in the Donetsk region.  Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that “In the Bakhmut sector, we conducted an offensive on the southern flank around Bakhmut ... There is an advance. Now our defenders are consolidating their positions on the occupied lines.”  Maliar additionally stated that the military “continued their offensive today on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions, reporting that they had destroyed a large number of ammunition depots in the area and that the number of Russian attacks there has decreased.  CNN 

Russia’s Lavrov Says F-16s in Ukraine Pose ‘Nuclear’ Threat.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that if Ukraine receives F-16 fighter jets, it will pose a “threat by the West in the nuclear sphere.”  Lavrov said that Moscow had specifically warned the Western nuclear powers — the U.S., France, and the UK — that the jets pose a threat since they can be equipped with nuclear weapons.  No government has formally pledged to send the jets, which Kyiv has long-requested.  However, Ukrainian pilots are set to start training on F-16s in August.  Both Ukraine and its Western allies have said that deployment of F-16s in Ukraine will still take months pending the training of the pilots, as well as the establishment of relevant maintenance and logistics capabilities and infrastructure in Ukraine.  Barron’s CNN France 24

Russia’s Lavrov Says He Has Not Heard Proposals to Extend Black Sea Grain Deal.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that he is “not aware of any new proposals” to extend the Black Sea grain deal, which expires on Monday, though he said Moscow is working with Turkey to ensure Russian grain exports continue even without the agreement.  His comments counter reports that UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres proposed reconnecting Russia’s agricultural bank to the SWIFT banking payment system through a subsidiary in exchange for Russia’s approval to extend the deal.  Russian officials previously said this would not be satisfactory as the reconnection would take ‘“many months” to complete.  Russia has threatened to withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal, claiming that the current arrangement does not adequately ensure the export of Russian grains and fertilizers.  Reuters 

Asia and Oceania

U.S. Navy Plane Transits Taiwan Strait.  The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet on Thursday said a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime and reconnaissance plane, which is also used for anti-submarine operations, “transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace.”  The 7th Fleet said the flight demonstrated U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific and navigational freedoms.  China’s military deployed fighter jets to monitor the U.S. patrol plane and called the flight “public hype.”  Taiwan’s defense ministry said it detected 26 Chinese aircraft, including J-16 and Su-30 fighters, “responding to” the U.S. patrol plane, which transited the strait as China conducted military exercises south of the island for a third day.  The ministry added that the U.S. plane followed the unofficial median line of the Taiwan Strait.  Reuters South China Morning Post

China, Russia Reaffirm Ties, Pledge to Jointly Cooperate With ASEAN.  China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday at the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Jakarta.  The two reaffirmed ties between their countries, with Wang saying Beijing and Moscow will work to “promote a multipolar world and democratization of relations,” highlighting “important high-level contacts” in the coming months.  Lavrov said the talks were “timely,” adding that China and Russia will work to strengthen regional cooperation, including “ASEAN-centric mechanisms.”  Separately, China, Russia and Indonesia agreed to collaborate on food, energy and supply chain security.  South China Morning Post 

India Gives Initial Approval for Purchase of French Fighter Jets, Construction of Submarines.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Paris on Thursday to strengthen Indian-French relations with a focus on defense-related deals and plans for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.  In a first step, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh announced that India’s defense ministry has given initial approval to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets from France, as well as three Scorpene class submarines, which will be jointly constructed by Indian and French shipbuilders.  Sources say the total value of the purchases are set to be around $9.75 billion.  The deals aim to help modernize India’s military and diversify India’s defense supply chain away from Russia.  Reuters

China Preparing Manned Lunar Mission.  China is planning to launch a crewed lunar landing mission by 2030, according to sources at China’s national space agency.  The mission will reportedly be similar to the U.S. Apollo mission but will differ by using two separate rockets to send a moon lander and command spaceship into lunar orbit.  Chinese researchers are reportedly developing the Long March 10 heavy carrier rocket, a new generation of manned spacecraft, and a lunar lander and crewed rover for the mission.  If successful, the mission will make China the second country to land astronauts on the moon, following the U.S.  South China Morning Post 

India Preparing Moon Mission.  The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) is preparing to launch a rocket on Friday that will land a rover on the moon around August 23rd and establish the nation as a new power in space exploration. The Chandrayaan-3 is expected to launch from the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.  The mission, if successful, will show that India has entered the private sector space race and is ready for future endeavors in the space industry.  Reuters

North Korea Launches Latest Hwasong-18 ICBM.  North Korea tested its newest Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Wednesday, according to its state media, which said that the weapon is a “strong practical warning” to its adversaries and the center of its nuclear strike force.  The US, Japan, and South Korea have all denounced the launch, and the United Nations Security Council, which passed measures barring North Korea from developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, will gather on Thursday to discuss the test.  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who oversaw the missile launch, asserted that the nation would continue to take steps to protect itself from hostility.  North Korean state media said that the test-fire is both a message to enemies as well as “an essential process aimed at further developing the strategic nuclear force of the Republic,” adding that the current military situation "has reached the phase of nuclear crisis beyond the Cold War era."  Reuters BBC CNN

Middle East and Northern Africa

Saudi Arabian Imports of Russian Oil Hit Record Highs in June.  Saudi Arabia imported a record 910,000 metric tons (193,000 barrels per day) of discounted Russian fuel oil in June, according to data from analytics firm Kpler.  The move marks a near 10-fold annual increase in imports of Russian fuel oil, which mainly goes to meeting Saudi power generation demands, but also helps Riyadh maintain crude exports despite OPEC+ production cuts.  The data underscores difficulties in curbing Russia’s oil trade despite Western sanctions shutting it off from key markets.  Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry and state oil giant Saudi Aramco did not respond to requests for comment on the imports of Russian oil.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Egypt Launches Regional Effort to Mediate Sudan Conflict.  Egypt launched a new initiative to mediate peace in Sudan at a regional summit of Sudan’s neighbors on Thursday.  The conflict, between Sudan’s army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has continued despite efforts by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and East African states to find a peaceful resolution.  The Egyptian initiative aims to achieve a three-month ceasefire to facilitate access for humanitarian aid and meetings between military and tribal leaders.  Sources say that Egypt, which historically has strong ties with the Sudanese army, put forward the initiative to counter foreign interference and reassert Cairo’s role in the peace process.  Some regional leaders are backing Egypt’s proposal, but Ethiopia says it must be aligned with an earlier regional IGAD initiative.  Separately, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Cairo on Wednesday.  The two leaders reportedly discussed the conflict in Sudan, bilateral relations and tensions over Ethiopia’s hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile.  Associated Press Reuters

Cyber and Tech

Musk Announces Launch of New AI Company.  Elon Musk has formed a new company, xAI, which according to its website has the goal of understanding “the true nature of the universe.”  Musk will lead the company, which already has a staff of twelve. The company, xAI, according to the website, “will work closely with X (Twitter), Tesla, and other companies to make progress towards our mission.”  The company reportedly has added people with industry experience at Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Tesla.  The xAI team will host a Twitter Spaces discussion on July 14 to allow listeners to meet the team and ask questions.  According to CNBC, Musk apparently is positioning xAI to compete with companies like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, producers of leading chatbots like ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude.  Wall Street Journal TheVerge CNN CNBC

Chinese Premier Signals Renewed Government Support for Tech Sector.  Chinese Premier Li Qiang told a meeting of technology companies that the government is committed to nurturing open and productive communications with the tech sector.  In what is described as the “strongest signal yet” of the government’s support of technology platform companies, Li said that authorities seek to “stay up on corporate difficulties and concerns, improve relevant policies and measures, and push for healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy in line with regulations.”  Li added that "governments at all levels should endeavor to create a fair and competitive market environment and improve policies on investment access."  Prior to Li’s meeting with Alibaba Cloud, Douyin and other companies, China’s economic planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), endorsed the investment projects of major tech platforms.  Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan, all of which had incurred sizable government fines in the past two years, were among 10 leading tech enterprises praised by the NDRC.  The firms were lauded for their improvements in competitiveness and returns on investment while contributing to China’s “technological self-reliance…and high-quality development.”  South China Morning Post Reuters

Australian Military Announces Quantum Sensor Project with Startup Firm.  Australia’s defense department has announced a partnership with a quantum startup company to develop quantum navigation sensors for military platforms.  The department’s agreement with Q-CTRL aims at developing sensors for military craft that will allow them “to position accurately over long periods when GPS is unavailable or untrustworthy” with added capabilities “against jamming or spoofing by hostile adversaries.”  The partnership is seen as a possible contribution to the AUKUS alliance’s pursuit of high-tech alternatives to GPS systems.  Tuesday’s joint agreement is the first part of a multiyear effort to “field-deploy and validate” miniaturized systems on military platforms. Q-CTRL emphasized its expertise in “quantum control” featuring its AI-enhanced software to improve the operation of quantum hardware.  Q-CTRL has offices in Sydney, Los Angeles, and London.  Defense officials representing the three AUKUS partners anticipate the application of quantum technologies to advanced computing and encryption as well as to positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) applications.  Last year’s AUKUS Quantum Arrangement set initial goals for PNT and anticipates adopting quantum technologies through trials and experimentation.  DefenseScoop

ArsTechnica Profiles Six Global Lunar Missions Scheduled in Rest of Year.  The once-waning interest in lunar expeditions has been reversed with a flurry of projects by several nations to land and probe the moon’s surface and sub-surface.  In the last 10 years, six missions have attempted moon landings, including three successful Chinese projects.  Three others, by Israel, India, and a private Japanese venture, have failed.  Those efforts set the stage for six lunar landing attempts scheduled in the next six months, with separate expeditions by India, Russia, Japan, and the United States.  An Indian mission by a lander and rover is scheduled to launch this Friday with the objective of studying mineral and chemical components of lunar soil.  A similar mission in 2019 ended in a crash on the moon’s surface.  In the first half of August, Russia’s Luna 25 spacecraft will launch from the Vostochny Cosmodrome aboard a Soyuz rocket.  Luna 25’s goal is to resume the Russian lunar program with a soft landing on the Moon.  The spacecraft, which does not incorporate a rover, will carry scientific payloads to the lunar surface.  In late August, the Japanese space agency, JAXA, will bring two missions to liftoff aboard its H2A rocket.  A small lunar lander will test the ability to carry out pinpoint landing capabilities.  The second mission includes an X-ray and spectroscopy capability for examining the lunar surface.  Three other 2023 lunar expeditions will be contracted by NASA, which has paid for “rides” on commercial lunar landers, beginning with the IM-1 lander mission that will carry five NASA scientific payloads, along with private sector customers, to the moon’s south pole.  That mission is expected to launch in the third quarter of 2023.  Expected in the final quarter of the year are missions by Astrobotic’s Peregrine spacecraft, which will carry 14 NASA payloads to the Mare Imbrium, and Intuitive Machines’ second Nova-C lander scheduled for November, but which may be delayed until early 2024.  Nova-C will deliver an ice mining experiment to a location near Shackleton Crater and will enable NASA to sample areas where water ice may exist at the moon’s surface or just below it.  Lunar missions slated for 2024 include more NASA commercial expeditions, and a Chinese project to land on the far side of the moon and return with soil samples to Earth.  ArsTechnica

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