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6:00 PM ET, Wednesday, July 12, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Chinese Envoy to U.S. Goes to Pentagon for Security Talks.  China’s ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng met with U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner at the Pentagon for rare defense talks.  The Pentagon confirmed the meeting, saying that Xie and Ratner, the top U.S. defense official for Asia, discussed defense relations and a “range of international and regional security issues.”  The Pentagon added that Ratner emphasized the U.S. commitment to maintaining open lines of communication between the American and Chinese militaries.  China’s embassy in Washington did not comment on the matter.  Experts say the meeting is unusual but could mean that Beijing is at least open to engaging with the U.S. on defense concerns.  Experts add that a meeting between U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu remains unlikely unless the U.S. addresses sanctions on Li.  Reuters

U.S. Sanctions 10 Allegedly Involved in Sinaloa Cartel Fentanyl Trade.  The U.S. on Wednesday sanctioned 10 Mexican nationals and one company suspected of involvement in the Sinaloa Cartel’s fentanyl trafficking network.  The sanctioned individuals are allegedly linked to accused suppliers of fentanyl precursor chemicals.  The sanctioned company is the import-export firm REI Compania Internacional, which is accused of receiving precursor chemical shipments from China.  Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury

Western Europe

G7 Nations Announce Long-Term Security Guarantees for Ukraine.  G7 countries announced a joint framework aimed at providing long-term security assurances to Ukraine to strengthen its defenses against Russia and deter future aggression from Moscow.  The multilateral framework facilitates “bilateral security commitments and arrangements” which will support Ukraine in areas including modern advanced military equipment, training, intelligence sharing and cyberdefense.  To receive the assistance, Ukraine must take measures to improve democratic governance, including judicial and economic reforms and enhanced transparency.  The G7 nations and EU signed a joint declaration for the framework, which other nations can join.  President Joe Biden said the framework is a “powerful statement of our commitment to Ukraine,” adding that the G7 would work to help Ukraine “build a strong capable defense” as it waits to join NATO.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the multilateral accord was a “significant security victory” for Ukraine.  However, the guarantees fall short of Ukraine’s calls for a clear roadmap to membership in NATO.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticized the G7 pledge as “potentially very dangerous” and said it could threaten Russian security.  Deutsche Welle Financial Times Kyiv Independent New York Times Reuters 

NATO Offers New Military Aid to Ukraine.  While NATO did not provide a concrete path for Ukraine’s membership during the Vilnius summit, the alliance members announced a host of new shipments of military aid to Kyiv.  Most notably, France pledged to transfer its long-range SCALP cruise missiles to Kyiv, following Britain’s earlier decision to send its long-range Storm Shadow missiles.  Germany also pledged new Patriot defense system launchers and missiles, in addition to tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.  Norway said it will transfer two NASAMS launchers.  Canada and Australia both pledged to send new armored vehicles.  And Sweden and Ukraine signed defense procurement and intelligence sharing agreements.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at the end of the summit that ensuring the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine is “the most urgent task now.”  Kyiv Independent Newsweek Wall Street Journal

Erdogan Says Turkish Parliament to Review Sweden’s NATO Ratification in Autumn.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that he will introduce a bill to ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO to the Turkish parliament when it reopens in October.  The parliament is currently on a two-month holiday.  In his confirmation on Turkey’s support for Sweden, Erdogan added that Stockholm will provide Ankara with a road map for additional counter-terrorism steps it will take before the ratification.  His comments suggest that there is still work to be done before Turkey fully approves Sweden’s NATO membership bid.  Deutsche Welle New York Times

Germany Dumps Poland Tank Maintenance Hub.  The German defense ministry announced on Wednesday that it is scrapping plans to build a joint tank maintenance hub in Poland. The hub was originally meant to provide a closer location than Germany for the repair of Leopard 2 tanks damaged in the Ukraine war.  Talks between Berlin and Warsaw dragged on for months with continued disagreements from both sides.  The German defense ministry said tanks will still be repaired in Germany “and likely in Lithuania.”  The Polish defense ministry did not comment on the matter.  German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius previously addressed the issue during a visit to Poland on July 3, when he said Berlin would decide “in what direction to plan” within 10 days – something observers saw as a veiled threat that Germany would build the hub elsewhere.  Reuters

Spain Deploying 700 Troops to Slovakia.  Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Wednesday announced that Spain is sending 700 troops to Slovakia and 250 additional military personnel to Romania.  He said the deployments aim to bolster NATO’s eastern flank.  Spain decided in late 2022 to send 130 troops and eight F-16 fighter jets to Romania.  Reuters

Germany Rules Out Sending Eurofighter Warplane to Saudi Arabia in Near Future.  German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Wednesday said Berlin is not sending the Eurofighter combat aircraft to Saudi Arabia “any time soon.”  A government source confirmed the decision to Reuters, saying that Germany will not change course on the issue during this legislative term, which ends in 2025.  Scholz’s comment came after Germany’s SZ newspaper cited an internal government document tying the decision to the war in Yemen, saying that “applications for export licenses for Saudi Arabia will be postponed” till the end of the conflict.  Germany ceased arms sales to Saudi Arabia after the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.  Britain has pushed Germany to end the arms freeze following the rapprochement of Saudi Arabia and Iran and has argued that Berlin cannot block the transfer of Eurofighter jets to third parties.  Britain’s BAE Systems reached a deal to send 48 of the jets to Saudi Arabia five years ago, but a third of the warplane’s components come from Germany.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Chief Confirms Discussion on Ukraine With CIA Director.  Russian foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin on Wednesday said he spoke with CIA DIrector William Burns in a phone call last month.  According to Russia’s TASS agency, Naryshkin said he and Burns focused their discussion on “what to do with Ukraine.”  He also said that Burns raised “the events of June 24,” referencing the Wagner Group’s uprising.  U.S. media outlets previously reported that Burns called Naryshkin to assure Moscow that the U.S. was not involved in the mercenary organization’s mutiny.  TASS added that Naryshkin said negotiations in Ukraine “will be possible sooner or later… but the conditions for these still need to ripen.”  It is unclear if Naryshkin conveyed this during his call with Burns.  Reuters

Russia Says Wagner Group Completing Handover of Weapons.  Russia’s defense ministry says that the Wagner Group is completing its handover of its weapons to the Russian military “in accordance with the plan.”  The ministry said that Wagner has so far transferred over 2,000 pieces of equipment and over 2,500 tonnes of ammunition.  If true, this is the strongest indication that Wagner forces are pulling out of combat operations in Ukraine.  It also casts doubt on the Wagner Group’s future and its extensive operations in Africa and the Middle East.  The reported development comes over two weeks after the Wagner Group uprising.  Financial Times Reuters

Russian Attack Injures 18 in Zaporizhzhia.  Ukrainian officials report that a Russian attack on the southern city of Zaporizhzhia injured 18 people on Wednesday.  Sources say an unidentified Russian projectile hit residential areas in the city.  Kyiv Independent

UN Reportedly Offering Agricultural  Bank Concession to Russia for Black Sea Grain Deal Renewal.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin a plan to extend the Black Sea grain deal, which expires on Monday.  Under the plan, in exchange for Russia’s approval to extend the deal, a subsidiary of Russia’s agricultural bank Rosselkhosbank will be connected to the SWIFT banking payment system.  Russia previously said it will not extend the deal, which expires on Monday, claiming that the West has not amended the agreement to consider Russian demands, including facilitating Russian food and fertilizer exports, resuming exports of agricultural equipment to Russia, and reconnecting Rozzelkhosbank to the SWIFT system.  Russia had previously rejected an EU proposal on the bank subsidiary.  It is unclear whether Russia will agree to the UN request.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Russia Says Scrambled MIG-31 Jet to Intercept Norwegian Plane. Russia said on Wednesday that it had dispatched a MiG-31 fighter jet to prevent a Norwegian military plane from violating the Russian border over the Barents Sea. The crew of the Russian jet identified the Norwegian plane as a patrol aircraft and said it turned away from the border once they approached.  Russia did not make a statement saying how close the two planes had come to one another, saying only that “the flight of the Russian fighter was carried out in strict accordance with international rules for the use of airspace over neutral waters, without crossing air routes or dangerously approaching an aircraft of a foreign state.”  Reuters

Estonia Not Requesting More NATO Troops.  Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said on Wednesday that Estonia has “no demands” for NATO allies to increase their military presence in the country.  Her comment came after Germany and Canada announced plans to deploy thousands of additional military personnel to Latvia and Lithuania.  Since 2017, Germany, Canada, and Britain have led about 1,000 troops in the Baltic nations. Kallas said Estonia is fine with its arrangement that allows British troops to be deployed outside its borders, while carrying out their exercises within Estonian territory.  Reuters

Turkey and Greece Agree to Resume Bilateral Relations.  Greek Prime Minister Kyriakor Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on Wednesday to restart bilateral talks and confidence-building measures.  Bilateral negotiations were halted last year due to a dispute over airspace violations and Turkey’s accusation of Greece pressuring the U.S. to block the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.  Relations improved after Greece sent aid to Turkey after the February earthquake.  As part of the rapprochement, cabinet ministers from the two sides are due to meet in autumn in the Greek city of Thessaloniki.  Mitsotakis stated that Greece and Turkey’s “problems have not magically resolved, but today’s meeting confirmed my intention and that of President Erdogan to reset Greek-Turkish relations.”  Al Jazeera Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Putin Invited to Visit China in October.  Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Russian President Vladimir Putin for a visit to Beijing in October, according to Russian news outlets.  Xi reportedly offered the invitation on Monday during a meeting in Beijing with Valentina Ivanovna Matviyenko, chairwoman of the Federation Council, Russia’s upper house of parliament.  The Chinese Foreign ministry has neither confirmed nor denied the report.  Putin’s last visit to China was in February of last year for the Winter Olympics, during which he secured a series of significant energy deals. Putin has not traveled much since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest back in March over allegations of forced deportation of Ukrainian children in the Ukraine war.  South China Morning Post

China Criticizes U.S. for Pressure to Accept South China Sea Ruling.  The Chinese embassy in the Philippines on Wednesday accused the U.S. of “ganging up” and forcing it to accept an arbitration ruling from 2016 on the South China Sea from.  The ruling, handed down by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, stated that Beijing’s claims to the South China Sea were baseless.  A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that “with its ruling, the tribunal violated the principle of state consent, went beyond its authority to hear the case and perverted law.”  A U.S. State Department spokesperson on Tuesday stated that the ruling was final and legally binding and urged Beijing to “comport its maritime claims with international law." The Philippines Foreign Ministry, to mark the anniversary of winning the arbitration case, launched a website containing information about the ruling.  Reuters

NATO, Japan Agree to Cooperation in 16 Areas.  NATO and Japan on Wednesday formally agreed to a new document on cooperation in 16 areas.  The document, called the “Individually Tailored Partnership Program between NATO and Japan for 2023-2026,” includes provisions for cooperation in cyber defense, strategic communications, emerging and disruptive technologies, space security, maritime security, arms control and climate change.  The agreement also includes cooperation on emergency management operations, with Japan planning to widen its role in evacuation operations from third countries.  NATO has concluded or is finalizing similar agreements with South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.  Nikkei Asia

NATO Chief Says Japan Office ‘Still On Table.’  NATO is sending mixed messages on whether it will pursue a potential NATO liaison office in Japan.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the issue of the office is “still on the table” and “will be considered in the future.”  Mention of the office had been removed from the alliance’s summit communique over NATO members' disagreement on the matter.  Some NATO states said that the office should be small and not have any military role, and France has outright opposed the office, saying that the alliance should focus on the North Atlantic.  China has criticized the office as an over- reach by NATO, and experts say Southeast Asian nations will likely be pressured by the office as they navigate the rivalry between the U.S. and China.  Deutsche Welle Reuters

Chinese Security Minister Calls for Defense Against Spies. Chinese State Security Minister Chen Yixin says China must “proactively defend” against spies in order to strengthen the national security of the Communist Party’s leadership.  Chen wrote in a magazine article that China must harness the power of big data, blockchain, and artificial intelligence to tackle threats from spies. He also emphasized a need for stricter national security measures due to risks from a more unpredictable global environment.  His remarks come two weeks after the expansion of China’s anti-espionage law, which widened the definition of spying and has broadened investigative powers of various national security law enforcement agencies.  South China Morning Post

China Sending Academic Group to Taiwan For First Time in 3 Years.  The Ma Ying-jeou Foundation, founded by Taiwan’s former President Ma-Ying-jeou, has invited 36 students and faculty members from five Chinese universities to visit Taiwan for nine days starting on Saturday.  The visit will mark the first time China sends an academic group to Taiwan in three years.  The Chinese delegation includes members from top universities including Peking University, Tsinghua University, Fudan University.  During the visit, the Chinese academics will engage in exchanges with Taiwanese universities.  Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office said that the visit “carried a positive significance” for promoting resumed exchanges on both sides. Former Taiwanese President Ma made a 12-day private visit to China in late March with around 30 students.  South China Morning Post

Middle East and Northern Africa

Hezbollah Members Injured in Israel-Lebanon Border Flare-Up.  Several members of Hezbollah were wounded on Wednesday after an alleged flare-up near the Lebanese southern border with Israel. The Israeli military stated that it had used a “non-lethal weapon” to distance individuals that were allegedly attempting to damage the security fence on the border.  A Lebanese security force described the incident as an attack in which “something like a grenade” had been used, adding that shrapnel injured the alleged Hezbollah members involved in the incident. The three injured people have not been identified.  There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah’s media office on the matter.  Reuters Al Jazeera 

Iran Summons Russian Ambassador Over Disputed Gulf Islands.  Iran’s foreign ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador to Tehran to protest Moscow’s support of a UAE proposal on disputed Gulf islands.  The islands — Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb — are claimed by both the UAE and Iran, though they have been controlled by Iran since 1971.  Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued a joint statement on Monday backing a UAE initiative to reach a peaceful resolution on the dispute over the islands either through bilateral negotiations or through the International Court of Justice.  Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the initiative, saying that the islands “belong to Iran forever.”  Reuters Al Jazeera

Cyber and Tech

China-Based Hackers Breach U.S. Government Email Accounts on Microsoft Cloud.  China-linked hackers breached the email accounts of U.S. government agencies and other organizations in an apparent cyber-espionage campaign, according to Federal officials and Microsoft researchers.  The hack of Microsoft cloud-computing environments hosting unclassified data has nonetheless raised concerns that valuable government information may have been compromised.  Microsoft said the email breach began on May 15 and was undetected for more than a month, ending on June 16 when Microsoft began its investigation. The now-mitigated vulnerability has been described as “significant” even as FBI cyber experts continue an assessment of the hack’s severity.  An unidentified source noted that the incident was serious enough to trigger a recent administration briefing for congressional staff.  It does not appear that Pentagon, intelligence community, and military email accounts were impacted by the intrusion.  The hackers gained access to the email accounts using forged authentication tokens through “an acquired Microsoft account consumer signing key,” according to Microsoft.  CNN has reported that the breach was first discovered within the State Department.  China’s Washington embassy has not responded to a request for comment on the incident.  Wall Street Journal Washington Post New York Times CyberScoop

NATO Introduces New Cyber Defense Concept, Reinforces Cyber Commitments.  NATO agreed to several new cybersecurity goals and strategies during this week’s summit in Vilnius. While details are classified, TheRecord identified a number of elements that point to key objectives for the alliance in cyberspace.  The summit communique reiterates NATO’s understanding that “cyberspace is contested at all times” and not only during times of tension or active conflict.  The summit document also acknowledged the established principle that a series of cyberattacks could reach the threshold of a kinetic attack and possibly “lead the North Atlantic Council to invoke Article 5.”  The new ground broken by the Vilnius conference included a “new concept” for cyber defense that will deepen the integration of NATO’s political, military, and technical cyber resources and seek ongoing civil and military cooperation while engaging with the private sector.  Prior to the summit, Assistant NATO Secretary General David van Weel described the concept as creating an expanded role for military cyber defenders during peacetime and establishing mechanisms to incorporate private sector capabilities within the alliance’s defenses.  The concept also calls on NATO members to become more assertive in responding to state-sponsored cyberattacks.  According to the communique, NATO members in updating the alliance’s Cyber Defense Pledge committed to “new national goals to further strengthen our national cyber defenses as a matter of priority, including critical infrastructures.”  The Record

Cybersecurity Coalition Urges ‘Swift Action’ by White House To Name Cyber Director.  A coalition of cybersecurity industry organizations has issued a letter urging the Biden administration to nominate a new National Cyber Director (NCD) before the end of the month or risk delays in implementing the National Cybersecurity Strategy.  In a letter addressed to Jeff Zients, the White House chief of staff, the organizations emphasized that “swift action is crucial” to fill the vacant role for the protection of the country and for effective responses to “the challenges that lie ahead of us.”  The industry representatives pointed to the “great work” performed by former NCD Chris Inglis and his interim successor Kemba Walden.  At the same time, they noted that in addition to impacting the national cyber strategy, the absence of a permanent director could “jeopardize the effectiveness of (the office of the) NCD” going forward.  Ari Schwartz, coordinator of the Cybersecurity Coalition and a Venable executive, said chances of a Senate confirmation of an NCD candidate decrease if delayed until after Congress’ August recess.  The letter also called for an executive order to clarify roles performed by the NCD, the National Security Council, CISA, NIST, OMB and other agencies with cybersecurity responsibilities.  The letter was signed by the Cybersecurity Coalition, BSA/The Software Alliance, Information Technology Industry Council, Center for Cybersecurity Policy and Law and the Better Identity Coalition.  CyberScoop

Critical Infrastructure Reliance on Satellite Links Intensifies Cybersecurity Concerns.  Experts participating in a space innovation conference have noted that cybersecurity in space is becoming increasingly important as earth-bound critical infrastructure grows more reliant on satellite communications.  Citing the finance, energy, transportation, and agriculture sectors, among others, Sam Visner, an Aerospace Corporation technologist, said “just about every critical infrastructure you can think of…depends on space systems.”  The importance of satellite security has heightened since the Russian cyberattack on the Viasat system as it launched its invasion of Ukraine.  As Visner pointed out during a conference panel discussion, in the past most space systems were standalone and were not vital to key industries on earth. Now, using the agriculture sector as an example, Visner said “we use space systems to navigate not just your truck to your supermarket, but also to get your harvester to the square in the field that you want it to cultivate.”  Visner also noted that privatization of the space sector has brought concerns about supply chain security to the forefront.  He noted that there is a lack of insight into the software supply chain in space systems.  An IEEE-sponsored group began work last month on implementing security-by-design into new space systems.  CyberScoop

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