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10:00 AM ET, Monday, July 17, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

U.S. Officially Permits European Nations to Train Ukrainians on F-16s.  U.S. President Joe Biden is permitting European nations to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 fighter jets.  U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN about the decision on Sunday, saying that the U.S. “will allow, permit, support, facilitate and in fact provide the necessary tools for Ukrainians to begin being trained on F-16s, as soon as the Europeans are prepared."  European heads have requested several weeks to prepare for training.  A “fighter jet coalition” of European countries, led by Denmark and the Netherlands, has been pushing for the F-16 training to eventually deploy the jets in Ukraine.  Officials say that training will take at least several months, meaning the first F-16s will not be deployed in time to support Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive.  CNN Kyiv Independent

White House Says China’s Restrictions on Chip-Making Metals ‘Self-Defeating.’  White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated on Sunday that China will only harm itself with planned restrictions on the export of two metals used in semiconductors, telecommunications, and electric-vehicle industries.  China announced that it will impose controls on the export of gallium and germanium starting on August 1 as part of efforts to protect Chinese national security.  The export curbs follow U.S.-led efforts to restrict exports of advanced technologies in an effort to hobble China’s semiconductor industry.  Sullivan said the Chinese tit-for-tat response with the controls on the metals will “only reinforce the determination of many other countries in the world to de-risk” and find ways to lessen dependence and reliance on China in their supply chains, including for key minerals.  U.S. President Joe Biden said that while Washington does not intend to “decouple” from trade with China, it will impose restrictions on some areas to defend national security interests.  South China Morning Post 

U.S. Senator Schumer Pushes for Sanctioning China over Fentanyl.  U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer announced on Sunday that he will push for a bi-partisan defense policy legislation to sanction China over its alleged role in producing the synthetic opioid fentanyl.  Schumer has blamed China for fentanyl overdose deaths of thousands of Americans, alleging that the drug comes from production sites in China "with the total acceptance and acquiescence of the Chinese government."  The Chinese embassy in Washington D.C has not commented on the allegations nor the bill.  Beijing has accused Washington of using the fentanyl crisis as a pretext for imposing sanctions on Chinese companies while simultaneously describing addiction and demand for the drug as a domestic problem.  Reuters The Cipher Brief

U.S. Treasury Secretary “Eager” to Work with China.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated she was “eager” to work with China on areas of mutual interest such as debt restructuring and much needed reforms for multilateral development banks. During a press conference at a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bankers in India, Yellen said her visit to Beijing last week helped put US-China relationship on “surer footing”, however, concerns about China’s unfair trade practices “have not been addressed.”  Reuters

Western Europe

EU and Tunisia Sign Migration Agreement.  Tunisia and the European Union on Sunday signed a "strategic partnership" agreement to address irregular migration from North Africa to Europe.  The agreement includes support for efforts to counter human trafficking and bolster border security, including 100 million euros for Tunisia to counter illegal migration.  The pact comes after weeks of discussions, as well as Europe’s promise of $1.12 billion in aid to Tunisia.  Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hailed it as “a new and important step to deal with the migration crisis.”  The pact also seeks to advance trade and investment, legal migration, macro-economic stability, and green energy transition plans between the bloc and Tunisia.  Al Jazeera Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Fierce Fighting Continues in Eastern Ukraine.  Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reports that fighting in eastern Ukraine has “somewhat intensified” in at least three areas on the eastern front.  She said that Ukrainian forces continue to advance on Bakhmut and that Ukraine has defended against Russian attacks near Avdiivka and Maryinka, as well as in the direction of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region.  The Ukrainian military reported unspecified advances towards Berdyansk and continued operations towards Melitopol, as well as unsuccessful assaults by Russian forces at the Staromayorske settlement.  The reports of tense and fierce fighting on the battlefield come as Russia President Vladimir Putin denied success in Ukraine’s counteroffensive, claiming that Kyiv has not broken through any Russian defenses.  Ukrainian officials have noted that the counteroffensive is moving slower than desired, but they maintain that Ukraine’s Western allies are not discouraged or looking for quick results.  More widely, chain of command issues continue to plague the Russian military and analysts are examining potential impact on Russian military morale.  Possible dismissals of senior Russia commanders signal persistent leadership questions. Al Jazeera CNN Reuters Institute for the Study of War

Ukraine Explosion Damages Part of Crimean Bridge, Kills Two.  Russia said two Ukrainian sea drones were launched in an attack on the Kerch Bridge on Monday, leaving a part of the critical link to Moscow-annexed Crimea unusable. The governor of Russia’s western Belgorod region said the explosion killed a married couple and injured their daughter.  Officials report that it halted traffic across the bridge and briefly disrupted rail traffic. Moscow said it will conduct a full inspection before saying how long repairs on the bridge will take.  Former Russian President Dmitry Medvdev called Ukraine a “terrorist organization” for launching the attack, adding that Russia “must blow up their houses and houses of their relatives, search and eliminate their accomplices.”  Kyiv did not formally take responsibility for the blast, but a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Security Service said that Ukraine will release details on the “bang” after it wins the war. A Ukrainian military spokesperson also warned that the attack may be a “provocation” from Russia.  A truck bombing previously destroyed sections of the bridge in October, which Ukraine eventually acknowledged as an act to disrupt Russian rail logistics.  Monday’s explosion appeared to be less destructive than the October bombing.  Associated Press Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Reuters

Russia Says it Prevents Ukrainian Attack In Crimea’s Sevastopol. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that its forces had prevented a Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea port of Sevastopol by destroying seven arial and two underwater drones.  The ministry said its forces destroyed seven aerial and two underwater drones targeting the city.  The ministry said that two of the aerial drones were shot down and five were disrupted by electronic warfare units, while the underwater drones were found and destroyed in the northern part of the Black Sea.  There were no reported casualties or damage in the alleged attack.  Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the attack but has said in the past that destroying Russia’s military infrastructure helps the Ukrainian counteroffensive.  Reuters

Russia Shells City of Kharkiv.  Ukrainian authorities report that Russian shelling attacks on the eastern city of Kharkiv killed one person and wounded several others on Sunday. Medics were seen at the site of the assault, where a fire also started. Kharkiv’s Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that seven people were wounded in the shelling in the southern Osnovyanskyi district of the city, though Reuters could not confirm the figures.  Ukraine reclaimed much of the eastern Kharkiv region in September.  Russian troops currently occupy only a small part of the region. Reuters

Russia Halts Participation in Black Sea Grain Deal Russia on Monday halted participation in the Black Sea grain deal, which facilitated the export of grain from Ukrainian ports and out of the Black Sea region.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow will “immediately return” to the deal once its demands are met, referring to Russian calls for an increase in Russian grain and fertilizer exports, though agricultural analysts report that Russian wheat exports have hit an all-time high following a large harvest.  Experts say that the disruption of the deal will only cause a short-term increase in commodity prices due to increased wheat and corn exports from Russia and other countries like Brazil.  However, if the deal is not revived, it will impact food security in developing countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, which depend on Ukrainian and Russian agricultural products. China has been the biggest beneficiary of that deal, taking in nearly one quarter of the initiative’s total exports. The EU and UN attempted to save the deal by offering to reconnect Russia’s agricultural bank to the SWIFT banking payment system through a subsidiary, but Russia rejected the proposal.  Ukraine did not comment on Russia’s withdrawal from the deal.  Peskov added that Moscow’s move was not “connected” to the explosion on the Kerch Bridge, saying that the Russian government decided to halt the deal before the attack.  Associated Press UN

Putin Says Russia will use Cluster Munitions in Ukraine Russian President Vladimir Putin stated Sunday that Russia has a “sufficient stockpile” of cluster munitions and reserves the right to use them if they are deployed against Russian forces by the Ukrainian Military. Putin also stated that he regards the use of these weapons as a crime and that Russia had not needed to use them despite having ammunition issues in the past. These statements came as Ukraine said on Thursday that it had received cluster bombs supplied by the United States. Kyiv has said that it plans on using the cluster bombs to dislodge enemy forces when trying to seize back its own territory but will not use them on Russian territory. Currently, cluster munitions are banned by more than 100 countries as unexploded bomblets can pose a significant threat for a long period of time. Human Rights Watch has reported that both Russia and Ukraine have used cluster munitions throughout the war.  Reuters CNN Associated Press

Russia Attempts to Control Increasing Number of Private Militias.  Russia is reportedly considering giving legal status to at least some of the 27 active Russian private military companies (PMCs), including militias such as the Moran Security Group, Convoy, the Patriot, and Shchit (Shield).  Russia has increased reliance on such paramilitary groups following the full invasion of Ukraine.  Since the PMCs do not legally exist, they offer Russia a force with less accountability, help mask official losses in Ukraine, and expand Russia’s geopolitical influence in Syria and Africa, notably through the Wagner Group, by taking on “high-risk” or “dirty” jobs.  Experts add that the many PMCs fragment Russia’s security apparatus to create different power centers that compete with one another, which allows Russian President Vladimir Putin to consolidate his power.  However, analysts say that the Wagner Group’s rebellion has shown the risk of allowing the paramilitary groups to operate without restraint through this model.  Following the mutiny, Russia ordered PMCs to sign contracts with the Russian defense ministry.  France 24  

Kosovo Buys Turkish Drones.  Kosovo’s Prime Minister Albin Kurti said Sunday that Kosovo had bought a batch of the Turkish-made Bayraktar drones.  Kurti said that the purchase makes Kosovo “even safer.”  He did not say the cost of the drones, how many were purchased or what they would be used for.  Kurti separately noted that Kosovo has raised its troop numbers by 80% and its defense budget by 100% in the last two years.  Officials say the country intends to build an army of 5,000 regular soldiers and 3,000 reservists.  Kurti’s statements come as Kosovo faces significant ethnic violence in its north, where ethnic Serbs are the majority.  Reuters  

South Korea to Provide Additional Demining Equipment to Ukraine A South Korean official said Sunday that South Korea will provide more demining equipment to Ukraine. This comes after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s surprise visit to Kyiv this past weekend where he pledged more military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Yoon’s deputy national security advisor Kim Tae-hyo said "we are thinking to expand support on mine detectors and demining equipment as Ukraine's demand for them was assessed to be desperately huge". Throughout the war, South Korea had been resisting Western pressure to directly arm Ukraine, citing business ties with Russia and Moscow’s influence over North Korea. But in a press conference Saturday, Yoon said that South Korea plans to provide “a larger scale of military supplies” to Ukraine this coming year. Reuters

Asia and Oceania

US, Japan, South Korea Hold Missile Defense Drill After North Korea ICBM Launch.  The U.S., Japan, and South Korea held a joint naval missile defense exercise on Sunday as part of efforts to counter North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.  South Korea’s navy said the drills were conducted in international waters between South Korea and Japan and focused on mastering responses to a North Korean ballistic missile launch.  The exercise came after North Korea launched its latest Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile off its east coast on Wednesday, which Pyongyang called a “strong practical warning” to its adversaries and an exercise of its right to self-defense.  Reuters The Japan Times

U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry in China.  John Kerry, the U.S. special envoy on climate, arrived in China on Sunday for a high-level trip aimed at reviving joint U.S.-China action on climate change.  Kerry will hold bilateral talks with his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua on issues including reducing methane emissions, coal use and deforestation and helping developing countries address climate change.  The two are also expected to discuss U.S. restrictions on imports of Chinese solar panels and battery components.  Kerry’s trip follows previous high-level visits by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Beijing.  Al Jazeera France 24 

China and Russia Expected to Start Joint Military Drill in Sea of Japan.  China and Russia are reportedly holding a joint exercise in the Sea of Japan.  China’s defense ministry said the drills, codenamed Northern/Interaction -2023, will be aimed at "safeguarding the security of strategic waterways.”  The ministry added that a Chinese naval flotilla, comprised of five warships and four ship-borne helicopters, left the eastern port of Qingdao on Sunday and will rendezvous with both Russian naval and air forces in the Sea of Japan for the drill.  Two Russian warships taking part in the exercises, the Gromkiy and Sovershenniy, conducted similar training with the Chinese navy in Shanghai earlier this month, preceded by transits by Taiwan and Japan.  The Sea of Japan exercises will be the latest act of military cooperation between Russia and China, which have expanded ties since the full invasion of Ukraine.  Reuters South China Morning Post

Chinese Hospital Ship Arrives in Kiribati.  A Chinese navy hospital ship, the Peace Ark, arrived in Kiribati on Saturday.  China’s defense ministry said the hospital ship will provide free medical services to Kiribati, as well as to the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu and East Timor over the next seven days.  China’s navy previously said the ship’s mission is a “pragmatic initiative” to boost Beijing’s ties with countries in the South Pacific and promote China’s “fine” culture and emphasize the “peaceful development” of its military.  The ship’s visit comes after Kiribati and the Solomons switched official diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in September 2019.  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Iran Relaunches Morality Police.  Iranian authorities report that the country’s so-called morality police have resumed patrols to enforce Iran’s mandatory hijab rules.  The morality police are mainly tasked with ordering women to adjust headscarves and demanding changes to looser-fitting clothing that is deemed more appropriate.  The revival of the morality police comes 10 months after the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in police custody after an alleged dress code violation.  Her death triggered mass protests across Iran which resulted in a rollback of the morality police’s presence on the streets.  Since then, Iran has increased surveillance to target hijab violators.  Al Jazeera  France 24 

Iraqi PM Visits Syria.  Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani traveled to Damascus on Sunday to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for a two-day diplomatic trip.  His trip marks the first time in more than a decade that an Iraqi Prime Minister has visited Damascus. Al-Sudani and Assad reportedly met to discuss fighting the drug trade, counterterrorism, the return of Syrian refugees, the lifting of Western sanctions imposed on Syria, Israeli attacks on Syrian territory, and Turkey’s damming of the Euphrates.  Al-Sudani also re-iterated Iraq’s support for Syrian control of the country and stated that Baghdad has "worked hard to bring Syria back into the Arab League and its natural environment."  Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera

Hamas Unable to Pay Salaries Over Delay in Qatar Aid.  The Gaza Strip’s Hamas has been unable to pay the salaries of 50,000 public sector workers.  Monthly payrolls reportedly cost Hamas 125 million shekels ($34.5 million) per month. Qatar currently pays $30 million per month in stipends for families, fuel for electricity, and to help pay public sector wages. Hamas officials say the last salary aid it received was just over half of a $5-million grant for May’s payroll.  Hamas officials are calling on Qatar to make the payments and increase the salary aid grant to $7 million to account for increased spending. Qatar’s International Media Office in Doha did not respond to a request for comment.  Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Gunman in Cameroon Kills 10.  A gunman killed 10 people in Cameroon’s northwestern city of Bamenda on Sunday.  Witnesses say the gunmen accused victims of failing to back local separatists and shot at people indiscriminately.  The Ambazonia Defense Forces (ADF), the main separatist group in the region, denied responsibility.  Local authorities say they have launched a manhunt to find the “terrorists” behind the massacre.  The attack was the latest act of violence in Cameroon’s restive English-speaking regions, where separatist groups are fighting in protest against alleged marginalization by the majority French-speaking government.  Al Jazeera

Cyber and Tech

Chinese Leader Calls for ‘Solid’ Internet Barrier as Security Ministry Launches Campaign.  Chinese leader Xi Jinping advocated strict adherence to Communist Party management of the Internet by building a “solid” security barrier around it.  In instructions to officials participating in a Beijing cybersecurity conference, Xi called for “making the Internet work for the people” while also “preventing risks and ensuring safety, and strengthening governance to benefit the people.” According to China’s Xinhua news agency, Xi emphasized the party’s and government’s role in Internet operations: “[We must] increase momentum to promote development and seek win-win cooperation, adhere to the party’s management of the internet and the principle of [building] internet trust for the people.  [We must] persist in building a solid national network security barrier, giving play to the driving and leading role of information, and managing, operating and accessing the internet according to the law.”  Shortly after Xi’s remarks, China’s Ministry of Public Security launched a nationwide campaign to improve public understanding of “the harms of misinformation.”  The ministry said that in the coming week, police departments would make public announcements about preventing misinformation at government agencies, schools, businesses and rural areas.  Shanghai police posted on the Weibo social media site that 258 people in its jurisdiction had been targeted for spreading online rumors, and 460 illegal accounts were shut down for violations.  South China Morning Post Reuters

AI-Enabled Systems Play Increasing Role in Israeli Military Operations, Planning.  Artificial intelligence is playing an expanding role in the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) air strike targeting and in managing wartime logistics.  Amid growing tensions in the occupied territories and with Iran, the IDF has turned to an AI recommendation system capable of processing large stores of data to guide air strikes.  A related AI system called Fire Factory calculates bomb loads, proposes schedules and assigns targets to aircraft and drones.  An IDF official said humans are still in the loop and oversee and approve air strike plans.  Advocates for the AI systems claim that use of the technology reduces military casualties.  Critics, however, warn that autonomous systems could have lethal outcomes.  Tal Mimran, an international law specialist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, pointed to AI issues with accountability:  “If there is a mistake in the calculation of the AI, and if the AI is not explainable, then who do we blame for the mistake?  You can wipe out an entire family based on a mistake.”  IDF officials underscore a special role for systems like Fire Factory in the event of a military confrontation with Iran, which could involve retaliatory actions by Iranian proxies in Gaza, Syria and Lebanon and creating a multi-front war for Israel.  In such a scenario, the IDF says, AI-enabled systems would reduce Israeli military decision-making from hours to minutes, “with a few more minutes for human review.”  Col. Uri, who spoke on the topic on the condition that only his first name be used, said “With the same amount of people, we do much more.”  Bloomberg

Russian Government Bans Official Use of Apple Devices.  Starting on Monday, thousands of iPhones and other Apple devices will be banned from use by Russian officials and state employees.  Russia’s Trade Ministry said the ban will impact iPhones used for “work purposes” and has been joined by the Digital Development Ministry and Rostec, the state-owned advanced technology conglomerate.  An unidentified source cited by the Financial Times said that Russian intelligence officials from the FSB who hold high-ranking security positions in various ministries have declared “iPhones were no longer considered safe and that alternatives should be sought.”  The ban on Apple devices comes as Russian government and security agencies have expressed growing concern over U.S. intelligence operations against Russian targets.  Andrey Soldatov, a Russia security and intelligence services expert, acknowledged that the FSP has had long-standing concerns about Apple technology, “but the presidential administration and other officials opposed [restrictions] simply because they liked iPhones.”  Another source cited by the Financial Times noted that similar bans are already in place or about to be enforced in the finance and energy ministries and other government components.  Alexey Lukatsky, a Russian cyber security veteran, doubted that a permanent switch to devices operating rudimentary Russian-made Aurora operating system will take hold: “There were restrictions on the use of work email on devices not certified [by security services] before. But most officials did not comply. The question is whether they will comply now.”  Financial Times

UK Defense Official Describes Quantum Applications as ‘Tank Vs. Cavalry’ Moment.  Britain’s armed forces minister has urged the incorporation of quantum technology in the design of next-generation military aircraft in a speech to the Global Air Chiefs conference in London.  James Heappey, the UK Minister of State for the Armed Forces, told the conference that since aircraft currently being designed are expected to operate for decades, provision should be made for the eventual use of quantum computing technology.  He described the advent of quantum as a “tank versus cavalry” moment.  In light of this potential, Heappey asserted that quantum computing would “change warfare in the most profound way.”  The processing speed of the emerging technology could transform the battlespace in all its forms – from the “vastness of the noise of the ocean; the vastness of the business of the skies; or the vastness of everything that’s happening within a human population on land.  Heappey spoke about the coming transformation of military strategy and tactics: “Quantum computing will be working at a speed we can’t imagine. It will enormously change what our armed forces can do and we’ve got to be ready to spiral onto our machines when that moment comes.”  BreakingDefense

Ukraine Computer Agency Warns of Hacking Attacks Leading to Accelerated Data Thefts.  The Gamaredon hacking group, which is sponsored by Russia, is operating in rapid-paced hacking attacks that can extract data from targeted systems in under an hour.  The group, also known as Armageddon, UAC-0010, and Shuckworm, has been linked to the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) and includes former Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) officers who defected to Russia in 2014.  Gamaredon is believed responsible for thousands of cyberespionage hacking attacks against Ukrainian targets and has left a pattern, according to Ukraine's Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA), of starting an attack with emails or messages to targets via Telegram, WhatsApp, Signal, or other IM apps.  If a target opens a malicious attachment masquerading as Word or Excel documents, a PowerShell script and malware (usually 'GammaSteel') are downloaded and executed.  According to CERT-UA, documents of interest can be exfiltrated by attackers within 30-50 minutes.  Gamaredon breaches and resulting infections plant as many as 120 malware files per week on the compromised system to increase the likelihood of re-infection.  BleepingComputer

Microsoft Changes Authentication System as Chinese Email Breach Review Continues.  Microsoft has announced changes to the authentication system that allowed China-linked cyberespionage hackers to forge tokens to gain access to government and other organizations’ email accounts.  Microsoft noted that the exact method the hacking group used to acquire an authentication key “is a matter of ongoing investigation.”  The company added, “though the key was intended only for MSA accounts, a validation issue allowed this key to be trusted for signing Azure AD tokens. This issue has been corrected.”  The company said it has “substantially hardened key issuance systems since the acquired MSA key was initially issued.”  Regarding the email breach operations carried out by “Storm-0558,” Microsoft said it has not observed any key-related activity since it invalidated the signing key,” adding "we have seen Storm-0558 transition to other techniques, which indicates that the actor is not able to utilize or access any signing keys."  The Record BleepingComputer

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