10:00 AM ET, Friday, August 18, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
U.S. Intelligence Says Ukraine to Come Short of Key Counteroffensive Goal. The Washington Post reports that the U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to fulfill a key goal of reaching the southeastern city of Melitopol to cut off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. Sources said Ukrainian forces, who have made it to the town of Robotyne over 50 miles away from Melitopol, will remain outside of the city. The assessment is based on Russia’s effectiveness in defending occupied territory with a network of well-prepared trenches and minefields. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Philip Breedlove recently told The Cipher Brief that Russia now “enjoys all the factors that a defensive posture gives,” especially after months of preparation. Western officials said they projected Ukraine would accept higher casualties to pierce through Russia’s main defensive lines at a main breakthrough point, but Kyiv chose to stem losses by relying on smaller units to target different areas, resulting in Ukraine making incremental progress in pockets on the front. Sources say there is also concern that Ukrainian commitment to fighting around Bakhmut and other areas in the south may have eroded the potency of the southern counteroffensive. The projected shortcoming is likely to start a blame game on why more progress won’t be made despite billions in military aid being given to Ukraine. General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview this week that he predicted the counteroffensive would be “long, bloody and slow” but noted Kyiv’s success in degrading Russian forces, which he said “are in pretty rough shape.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters on Thursday that Ukraine will continue to fight, saying “we don’t care how long it takes.” Washington Post The Cipher Brief
U.S. Formally Approves Transfer of F-16s to Ukraine After Training Finished. The U.S. has said it will approve the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from Denmark and the Netherlands once Ukrainian pilot training is completed. Ukraine has long sought F-16s to counter Russian air superiority. Denmark and the Netherlands are leading a coalition of 11 countries that are expected to begin training Ukrainian pilots this month. Despite the moves suggesting urgency to get the jets to Kyiv, Ukraine air force spokesperson said on Wednesday that Ukraine will not be able to operate F-16s by the end of the year. CNN Politico Reuters
Pentagon Review Highlights Russian, Chinese Bio Threats. The Pentagon released a review of biological threats on Thursday which said that the U.S. military is at a “pivotal moment” in biodefense and must act to address risks from bioweapons and other events like pandemics. The report assesses that China, Russia, North Korea and Iran likely have the ability to create deadly bioweapons, with Moscow and Pyongyang maintaining active offensive biological weapons programs. The review highlights China as the main long-term threat, doubting China’s compliance with international rules on biowarfare and raising alarm over its integration of civilian biological research into its military and the billions it is investing into the bio-economy. A spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said China is “firmly against the proliferation of biological weapons and their technologies” and maintains export controls on dual-use biological items. China has called on the U.S. to be more transparent about its own biodefense research and has echoed claims by Russia that Washington is funding bioweapon labs in Ukraine, which Washington has called “preposterous.” Washington Post
Brazilian Hacker Claims Bolsonaro Asked Him to Hack Voting Machines. Brazilian hacker and computer programmer Walter Delgatti on Thursday revealed to a congressional inquiry that last year, during a presidential campaign, former President Jair Bolsonaro requested that he meddle with an electronic voting machine to show that Brazil’s electoral structure was unprotected against fraud. Delgatti told lawmakers that Bolsonaro “gave me a blank check to do what I wanted with the voting machines . . . the idea was to take a machine . . . so I could install my app there and show the population that it is possible to press the button for one vote and end up with another." According to the hacker, right-wing legislator Carla Zambelli arranged the meeting in August of 2022 and paid Delgatti $8,000. After the testimony, ex-President Bolsonaro denied the accusations but confirmed that "there was the meeting and I sent him to the defense ministry to talk to technicians." Bolsonaro has never accepted his defeat to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva last year and continues to argue that the voting system is vulnerable to fraud. He has been declared ineligible for public office until 2030 and is under investigation for alleged assaults on the Brazilian electoral system. Associated Press CNN Reuters
U.S. Judge to Allow Florida Ban on Chinese Citizens Owning Homes. U.S. District Judge Allen Winsor in Florida decided against blocking the state’s new law that bans Chinese nationals and citizens from other "countries of concern" from owning land or homes in the state. Winsor, who ruled that the law does not violate the U.S. Constitution or legislation banning housing discrimination because it is based solely on citizenship, dismissed a bid by four Chinese citizens to block the law. American Civil Liberties Union attorney Ashley Gorski, who represents the four plaintiffs, says that the group plans to appeal the ruling. The legislation, which the Biden administration said violates the federal Fair Housing Act, also bars most citizens of Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, Syria, Cuba, and Iran from buying land or homes close to military infrastructure or installations such as airports or power plants. The law prohibits people who are “domiciled” in China and lack American citizenship or a green card from owning property in Florida. However, holders of non-tourist visas from those nations of “concern” can purchase a single property that is at least five miles from vital infrastructure. Florida’s attorney general's office did not respond to requests for comment. Reuters
Haitian Aid Groups Temporarily Pause Operations. Haitian aid groups supported by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) have decided to temporarily pause operations, including some mobile health units, due to days of heightened violence in the gang-controlled capital of Port-au-Prince. On Thursday, the group announced that "in a matter of days, violence escalated dramatically in Port-au-Prince, particularly affecting neighborhoods where the IRC collaborates with local organizations to provide vital services." Co-founder of American-based crisis response group CORE Ann Lee explained that many aid groups have been forced to shut down as financial aid slows, “unprecedented” violence spikes, and costs rise. The UN estimates that since Saturday, at least 5,000 people have fled from zones near Savages Pistaches Carrefour Feuilles, which the Grand Ravine gang has surrounded. The Haitian government said in a statement that it would send all police forces to restore stability in the neighborhood. Reuters
Western Europe
Germany Provides Two IRIS-T Air Defense Systems to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that Germany has delivered two IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine. Zelensky said the delivery gives Ukraine a “powerful and much-needed air defense system.” Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Drone Attack Hits Building in Moscow. Russian officials said a Ukrainian drone attack hit the Expo Center in central Moscow on Friday. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said Russian air defenses shot down a drone in the Russian capital and that its debris fell on the Expo Center, which is about 3 miles away from the Kremlin. Witnesses said they heard “a powerful explosion” from the attack and footage published by Russian media outlets showed thick smoke rising in the area. Ukraine did not comment on the incident. Reuters Barron’s BBC
Russian Military Says it Thwarted Ukrainian Sea Drone Attack on Crimea. Russia’s defense ministry said on Thursday that two Russian war vessels close to Crimea repulsed a Ukrainian assault with an unmanned boat. The ministry claimed that two patrol ships, the Pytlivy and the Vasili Bykov, were 147 miles southwest of Sevastopol when they fired at the Ukrainian sea drone and destroyed it. Reuters Barrons
Russia Charges Imprisoned U.S. Citizen With Espionage. Russia’s state-backed TASS news agency reported Thursday that a Moscow court has charged Gene Spector, a Russian-born American citizen already imprisoned in the country, with espionage. Spector is currently serving a prison sentence on bribery charges. After moving to the US from St. Petersburg, he later became the chairman of the board of directors of Medpolymerprom Group, which deals with cancer medications, and reportedly mediated bribes for Anastasia Alekseyeva, an ex-aide to former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. There is no sign that the U.S. considers Spector wrongfully detained, though a State Department spokesperson said Washington is “aware of reports of charges against a US citizen in Russia,” and is “monitoring the situation.” CNN CBS Reuters
First Vessel to Use Ukraine’s Black Sea Corridor Arrives in Turkey. The first ship to use Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor to exit a Russian-blocked port has crossed successfully through Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait and arrived in Istanbul. Earlier this week, the Hong-Kong-flagged Joseph Schulte container ship left Odesa after being stuck in the port since before the Ukraine war. Russia has not given any signs whether it would respect the shipping lane, which Kyiv called a "humanitarian corridor" in the Black Sea made to release ships trapped at its ports. Al Jazeera Reuters
Russia Recruited Spies in Poland Online to Disrupt Weapons Flow to Ukraine. The Washington Post is out with a detailed report that examines Russian efforts to recruit spies in Poland to disrupt the transfer of weapons through the country to Ukraine. Poland has been a primary target of Russian espionage since 80% of all military hardware sent to Kyiv first goes through Polish territory. The operation by Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency allegedly targeted Telegram channels used by Ukrainian refugees in Poland. Operatives were first directed to spread pro-Russian propaganda, both to generate anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Poland and test the willingness of recruits. They were then ordered to carry out schemes such as derailing trains, planting cameras to monitor key transit routes, committing arson and even assassinating targets. Polish authorities say they largely foiled the network, though they have yet to find the Russian operatives directing it or understand the full extent of encrypted communications with cell leaders in Poland. Polish officials say the network shows a new level of improvisation and desperation from Russian spy agencies to commit sabotage in NATO countries. Washington Post
Russian Envoy Says Prisoner-Swap Channel With U.S. Exists. Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov told reporters on Wednesday that the U.S. and Russia are operating a “special channel” dedicated to prisoner swap negotiations, which he said “has already proved its effectiveness.” His comments came in response to a question about a Wall Street Journal report that says Moscow has not indicated a clear interest in any specific Russian citizens held by the U.S. Washington continues to seek the release of U.S. citizens held in Russia, including Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and businessman and former Marine Paul Whelan. Wall Street Journal
Russia Using Ghost Fleet to Evade Sanctions. The Wall Street Journal reports that Russia is using a fleet of hundreds of ghost vessels from around the world to continue exporting oil to help fund its war in Ukraine. The vessels are owned by companies in countries like Turkey, Greece, India and the UAE. The firms evade sanctions by operating outside of shipping industry standards, such as by forgoing insurance with usual providers in favor of Russian ones. Turkish companies are of particular concern since they underscore Western concerns that Turkey is a hub for Russian sanctions violations. Experts also note that the tankers used in the ghost fleet are old and not properly surveyed, which poses safety concerns. One analyst called the tankers “a ticking time bomb.” Despite this, the ships have effectively allowed Moscow to continue earning oil revenues and even expand its share in some major oil markets amid the Ukraine war. The report says Russia currently supplies about the same amount of oil to China as Saudi Arabia does and now accounts for 40% of India’s oil imports, up from 3% before the war. Wall Street Journal The Cipher Brief
Asia and Oceania
Taiwanese VP Returns Home After U.S. Visit. Taiwanese Vice President William Lai on Friday returned from a trip to the U.S. At Taiwan’s Taoyuan airport, Lai thanked "everyone's hard work,” adding that “Taiwan's power is stronger and stronger, and it showed the international community that Taiwan is a force for good, that the international community really pays great attention to Taiwan." Beijing condemns transit stops in the U.S. and has labeled Lai as a separatist "troublemaker” for comments he has made about being a "practical worker for Taiwan independence.” Officials from Taiwan have cautioned that China is now likely to perform military exercises around the self-governing island to intimidate votes ahead of the 2024 presidential elections, and to protest Lai’s stopovers in New York and San Francisco on his way to and from Paraguay. Taipei has not yet reported any suspicious or unusual Chinese activity near the island. Reuters
Russia, China Conducting Joint Pacific Naval Patrol. The Russian Defense Ministry said on Friday that Russian and Chinese navy ships have been jointly patrolling the Pacific Ocean and conducting naval exercises in the East China Sea. The ministry said the ships have traveled over 6,400 nautical miles since they started the joint patrols. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Britain Invites Saudi Crown Prince to UK. Britain has formally invited Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for an official visit later this year, according to UK government officials. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he hopes to meet the crown prince “at the earliest opportunity” to discuss trade, defense cooperation and investment. A visit will come as Britain and other European countries seek energy alternatives after imposing sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine war, and as the West seeks to counter regional influence of Iran, Russia and China. The visit is set to be controversial over Saudi human rights issues. Al Jazeera Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
West African Military Chiefs Continue Talks on Potential Niger Intervention. West African military leaders are meeting for a second day on Friday in Ghana’s capital of Accra to discuss a possible military intervention in Niger. The defense chiefs have been discussing logistics and other aspects of possible deployment. ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Abdel-Fatau Musah said that while the use of force remains a last resort, West African forces “are ready to answer the call of duty” if diplomacy fails. All 15 ECOWAS members have said they are ready to participate, except for members also under military rule — including Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea — and Cape Verde. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Google Announces Code To Create Quantum-Resilient Security Keys. Google announced the release of a new security key code employing cryptography to resist decryption by both traditional and quantum computers. Google said the code developed under FIDO2, a global passwordless authentication standard, would allow for creation of quantum-resilient security keys. The code involves a hybrid signature design that counters quantum attacks through the combination of the traditional ECC algorithm and the newer Dilithium algorithm. The Google proposal was co-developed with the ETH Zürich research university. A Google blog post said, “fortunately, with the recent standardization of public key quantum resilient cryptography including the Dilithium algorithm, we now have a clear path to secure security keys against quantum attacks." The Record TheHackerNews BleepingComputer IBM Security Blog
China Positions Satellites To Monitor Australian, ‘Quad’ Military Exercises. Three Chinese geostationary satellites were positioned over northern Australia to monitor recently completed war games, named Exercise Talisman Sabre. Meanwhile, smaller Chinese satellites are conducting surveillance of ‘Quad’ (Australia, U.S., India, and Japan) naval exercises taking place off Sydney. EOS Space Systems, a Canberra-based defense firm, tracked the three Chinese satellites maneuvering into position below the equator to surveil the Talisman exercises that took place across northern Australia. Beginning on August 10, hundreds of smaller low-orbit satellites have completed thousands of passes over Australia to monitor ‘Quad’ nations’ warship activity around Sydney Harbor. EOS Space Systems’ James Bennett reported that over 300 satellites have been observed scanning ground-based activities, with more than 3,000 overflights since the start of the Quad’s Exercise Malabar naval exercises. Bennett noted that the large number of Chinese satellites currently above Australia provides Beijing with highly detailed information and "persistent observation" of events on and offshore. Bennett said "they can glean military intelligence on what the capabilities and equipment are, as well as processes of ground military activities.” Australia Broadcasting Company
Space Force Activates Only Squadron Dedicated to Adversary Satellite Monitoring. The Space Force last week activated the 75th Intelligence-Surveillance-Reconnaissance Squadron (ISRS), the only service unit focused on targeting satellites and ground stations of other nations. The 75th ISRS mission is to analyze target capabilities as well as monitor their locations, which involves the preparation and presentation of intelligence concerning targets and their supporting systems. The unit also will participate in assessing adversary space capabilities, including "counter space force threats" aimed at preventing the U.S. from using its own satellites during a conflict. With the recognition that cybersecurity in space-based assets is an area of vulnerability, the new squadron likely will be involved in determining a response if a hostile nation launches a cyberattack that impacts U.S. ability to employ its space assets. Space.com Cybernews
New CISA-Industry Plan Offers Strategy To Counter Remote Software Vulnerabilities. CISA on Wednesday issued its first guidance document covering remote monitoring and management (RMM) software. CISA explained that it worked with industry partners as part of the Joint Cyber Defense Collaborative (JCDC) to create a “clear roadmap to advance security and resilience of the RMM ecosystem.” CISA said a key objective of the Cyber Defense Plan for Remote Monitoring and Management is to expand the sharing of cyber threat and vulnerability information between the U.S. government and RMM industry stakeholders. It also will help to implement “mature scaled security efforts” mechanisms for the community. The RMM guidance is built around two pillars – operational collaboration and cyber defense guidance – to ensure the security of digital networks. The collaboration element entails information-sharing among “diverse stakeholders across the cybersecurity ecosystem” so that systemic risks can be identified, and joint, actionable solutions can be implemented. Cyber defense guidance involves educating RMM end users on the cybersecurity dangers associated with the software. Malicious hackers target RMM systems through endpoint access and often maintain uninterrupted access to digital networks, which CISA refers to as “living off the land.” NextGov The Record
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