5:30 PM ET, Tuesday, October 31, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Blinken, Austin Promote Israel, Ukraine Aid Plan. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken testified to the Senate Appropriations Committee on Tuesday, calling for the approval of President Joe Biden’s request for $106 billion in funding for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and U.S. border security. The request asks for $14.3 billion for Israel, including $9 billion for humanitarian relief for both Israel and Gaza. The request also asks for $61.4 billion for Ukraine, around half of which would be spent in the U.S. to replenish weapons stockpiles drained by past military support for Kyiv. The request additionally asks for $13.6 billion for U.S. border security and $4 billion for military assistance and government financing for Asia to counter China.
Anti-war protesters disrupted the beginning of the hearing, calling for a ceasefire and denouncing U.S. officials for backing what they called a “genocide” in Gaza. Blinken did not address the protesters but said a ceasefire would only allow Hamas to reconsolidate, though he said “humanitarian pauses” to get aid to those in need should be considered.
Blinken added that both Hamas and Israel cannot run Gaza in the future and that an “effective and revitalized Palestinian Authority” would ideally take charge, with other countries in the region stepping in temporarily.
Regarding attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East, Austin said “we will respond” if they continue. U.S. airstrikes on arms storage facilities in Syria aimed to deter further attacks, but have so far failed to do so.
(Read about Blinken and Austin comments in The Ukraine Update below.) Associated PressCNN Reuters Washington Post
FBI Director Warns of U.S. Terror Threat from Hamas Attacks. FBI Director Christopher Wray warned on Tuesday that the Hamas attacks on Israel will inspire the most significant terror threat to the U.S. since the launch of ISIS about a decade ago. Wray noted that since the star of the Israel-Hamas conflict, several foreign terrorist organizations have called for attacks against Americans and the West, which raises the threat posed by homegrown U.S. violent extremists. His remarks came during a hearing before the U.S. Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas added at the hearing that there has been an increase in antisemitism and reports of anti-Jewish incidents at U.S. universities amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Officials have also warned of threats to Muslims and Arab Americans. NBC News NPR Reuters
U.S. Senate Confirms New Ambassador to Israel. The U.S. Senate on Wednesday confirmed Jack Lew, a former treasury secretary in the Obama administration, to be the next U.S. ambassador to Israel. Lew’s nomination was approved 53-43, mostly along party lines and with fierce opposition from some Republican senators due to Lew’s involvement in the Obama-era 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The U.S. has not had a confirmed ambassador for Israel since the summer when Thomas Nides left the position. Lew was nominated for the role by President Joe Biden in September. His nomination has been on a fast track following the Hamas attacks on October 7. Lew is an Orthodox Jew with long-standing ties to the American Jewish community. He also has long backed a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. CNN Washington Post The Hill
Israeli Strike on Gaza’s Jabalya Refugee Camp Reportedly Kills Dozens. An Israeli strike on the Jabalya refugee camp in northern Gaza has reportedly killed dozens of Palestinians. The Gaza Health Ministry says that over 50 people were killed, and 150 others injured in the attack. Witnesses said several missiles fell on the camp in the attack. Israel’s military confirmed that it was responsible for the attack. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Lt. Col. Richard Hecht told CNN that the attack targeted and killed a senior Hamas commander, Ibrahim Biari, who Hecht said had “killed many, many Israelis”. Hamas has denied that one of its leaders was in the camp at the time of the attack. When pushed on why the IDF launched the attack in an area with a large civilian population, Hecht said that Biari was in the camp “hiding, as they do, behind civilians” and that civilian casualties were a “tragedy of war.” In response to reports about the Jabalya strike, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that “we certainly know that civilians have been hurt, civilians have been killed to the tune of many thousands” and that the U.S. is “in touch with our Israeli counterparts about the need to continue to minimize civilian casualties as much as possible,” adding that “the killing of civilians is not a war aim of Israel.” Al Jazeera BBC CNN New York Times Washington Post Reuters
Egyptian PM Visits Rafah Border Crossing. Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly visited the Rafah border crossing with Gaza on Tuesday, capping a tour of the northern Sinai Peninsula. At Rafah, Madbouly reiterated support for a two-state solution as the way to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue, adding that Egypt “will never allow the killing of the Palestinian cause.” Egyptian officials also called for more aid to enter Gaza through the Rafah crossing, criticizing the Israeli inspections for being too slow. Israel reportedly agreed earlier this week to speed up inspections to allow 100 trucks to enter Gaza per day, though aid has yet to flow at that level. Separately, Egyptian state media and the Hamas border authority said that Egypt has agreed to take in 81 injured people from Gaza through Rafah for care at Egyptian hospitals. Despite this, Egypt has maintained it will not allow Palestinians to leave Gaza and be displaced into Sinai. In an earlier address to soldiers and local tribal leaders at a military base near the city of Arish, Madbouly said Egypt will “never allow the settlement of any regional issues at our expense.” Washington Post Reuters
U.S. Reports 66 Aid Trucks Enter Gaza Over Past Day. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday afternoon that 66 aid trucks have entered Gaza in the last 24 hours, delivering food, water and medicine. The U.N. is urging more aid to be delivered more quickly, calling for the opening of the Israeli-controlled Kerem Shalom crossing at the southern part of the Israel-Gaza border as another aid route. The U.N. has said the opening of another entry point for aid to enter Gaza is “indispensable.” The crossing is near the Kerem Shalom kibbutz, which was attacked by Hamas on October 7. Washington Post Reuters
Police Shoot Veiled Woman in Paris Metro Station. A fully-veiled woman was shot at the Bibliotheque François-Mitterrand station after passengers heard her behaving in a threatening manner while shouting “Allahu Akbar” and “You’re all going to die.” Government spokesperson Olivier Veran said witnesses observed her “uttering aggressive, Jihadist comments.” He added that when police arrived, they originally pulled the woman aside and asked her to calm down, but ultimately, “they had no option but to open fire on this woman given the danger of the situation.” The prosecutor's office added that during the altercation, the woman had threatened to blow herself up. The French police chief said that her identity could not be confirmed but that she could be the same individual who had previously been put in a psychiatric ward over mental health issues after threatening urban patrols of the counter-terrorism Sentinelle operation. Reuters Financial Times
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Blinken, Austin Urge Further Ukraine Aid. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for approval of new aid for Ukraine while testifying to the Senate Appropriations Committee on Tuesday. The two said that support for Kyiv has made a difference. Austin said that without U.S. support “(Russian President Vladimir) Putin will be successful” in his invasion, and Blinken said backing Ukraine has made Russia’s war “a strategic debacle. The Biden administration is requesting $61.4 billion for Ukraine, around half of which would be spent in the U.S. to replenish weapons stockpiles drained by past military support for Kyiv, as part of a wider $106 billion package that includes funding for Israel, Taiwan and U.S. border security.
Democrats have solidly backed this proposal of combining aid for Ukraine and Israel, as have many Republicans. But Republican leadership in the House of Representatives have expressed concerns, questioning whether more funding should go to Ukraine rather than supporting Israel or boosting efforts to counter China. Newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson has voted against further aid for Ukraine in the past and introduced a bill on Monday to commit $14.3 billion in aid for Israel by cutting the Internal Revenue Service’s funding. That proposal also does not include humanitarian aid for Gaza. CNN Kyiv Independent Reuters
Russian Forces Appear to Have Withdrawn from Belarus. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service reports that Russia appears to have withdrawn “all its units” from Belarus. A spokesperson for the border guard said the units were pulled out “as part of a rotation,” but new units were not brought in to replace them. The spokesperson noted that some Russian military personnel have remained, but these are mostly staff who service Russian equipment in Belarus. The spokesperson added that there also currently “less than a thousand: Russian mercenaries in Belarus, referring to Wagner Group fighters providing training to Belarusian forces. The border guard maintains that the border is “fully under control” and that there is no evidence that personnel or equipment are being moved toward Ukraine. Kyiv Independent
Explosion Reported at Russian Military Plant. An explosion occurred at the Ural factory, one of Russia’s largest military plants in the Perm Krai area, on Tuesday, according to Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti. Officials from Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec, which owns the factory, said there were allegedly no people at the plant at the time of the blast and that the facility resumed work shortly after. Regional officials said the explosion posed no threat to the local civilian population. The factory, located in the town of Solikamsk, which is over 1,200 miles east of the border with Ukraine, produces explosives for ammunition and small arms. Kyiv Independent
E.U. Commits 335 Million Euros for Ukraine Reconstruction, Reforms. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Tuesday that the E.U. is sending 335 million euros ($354 million) in aid to Ukraine to support the “recovery and reforms” program. The initiative supports “reconstruction of infrastructure, in particular the energy sector” and anti-corruption, environmental protection, and digitalization efforts. The reforms lay the foundation for Ukraine’s path to European integration. Shmyhal said in September that Ukraine had implemented all seven reform recommendations the European Commission has said should be completed to launch the accession process. Kyiv Independent
Suspect Arrested in Shooting of Pro-Russian Politician. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that the suspect in the shooting of pro-Russian politician Oleg Tsaryov has been arrested and later confessed to the attack. FSB said the gunman is a resident of Ylata, occupied Crimea, and attempted to kill Tsaryov at the direction of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU). The suspect reportedly confessed to attempted murder and collaboration with the SBU. SBU’s claims could not be independently verified. Tsaryov was shot in Crimea on October 27 and is now in a hospital in serious condition. Tsaryov was a member of the Ukrainian parliament and then became speaker of the parliament of “Novorossiya,” which was created after Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine broke away in 2014. Kyiv Independent
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Global Counter Ransomware Initiative To Announce Multiple Projects. An international coalition of countries gathering Tuesday in Washington is expected to issue a pledge of most member states not to pay ransom demands from hackers and threat actors. Also, the third annual International Counter Ransomware Initiative (CRI) summit will announce a project to use AI in analyzing blockchains, according to Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor for cyber. The AI blockchain initiative envisions ways to identify illicit funds used to pay ransomware demands. “Innovative mentorship and tactical training,” Neuberger said, also will be offered to newer CRI members. A new information-sharing platform is another capability to be available to CRI members, which now includes 48 countries along with Interpol and the European Union. Neuberger added that that CRI member countries hit by a ransomware attack will be helped by fellow members with incident response. A Treasury Department “blacklist of wallets” will be shared among CRI members to track payment channels. Tracking movements through wallets handling illicit funds will allow officials to “alert their virtual assets service providers to block or freeze those transactions.” The Record CyberScoop DefenseOne
AI Executive Order Will Impact Pentagon-Industry Ties, Shape Other Military Programs. The new standards announced in the Biden administration’s sweeping AI executive order (EO) could have large implications for collaboration between the Pentagon and its industry partners in meeting requirements to share safety information and other critical data. Klon Kitchen, the head of the global technology policy practice at Beacon Global Strategies, foresees impacts on acquisition processes for major contractors and technology integrators who will face “pretty significant reporting requirements associated with their frontier models.” Kitchen said there will be “inevitable disjunctions” between the EO and the DoD’s AI policies although he noted there is “intended alignment” between the White House and Pentagon. Kitchen added that he expects disagreements to crop up between industry and government, “but I do interpret the executive order as a general good faith effort to begin that conversation.” Ultimately, Kitchen said, “what’s really going to matter is how these various departments and agencies actually start building the rules and interpreting the guidance that they received in the executive order.” The EO also directs the Pentagon and Department of Homeland Security to conduct a pilot project “to identify, develop, test, evaluate, and deploy AI capabilities…to aid in the discovery and remediation of vulnerabilities” in key government systems and software. BreakingDefense DefenseScoop The Cipher Brief
Massive Data Compromise Endangers Personal Information of 800 Million Indians. Personal data of over 800 million individuals in India is being offered on the dark web, according to the U.S.-based Resecurity cybersecurity firm. Resecurity notes that the personal data is being sold online for $80,000. The information reportedly derives from Aadhaar biometric identity cards as well as passport data. Aadhaar cards hold biometric information such as fingerprints and iris scans. Aadhaar is the largest biometric ID system in the world and its cards can be used as digital identification for online purchases. Indian media reports indicate Aadhaar data came from COVID-19 tests of individuals registered with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). The ICMR has experienced multiple cyberattacks in 2023. Indian authorities have not yet responded to media reports of a massive data compromise. Resecurity, in reporting a spike in incidents involving Aadhaar ID’s, warned that there is “significant risk” of digital identity theft that could be exploited for online banking crimes or tax refund frauds. Cybernews
Nvidia’s $5 Billion in Next-Year AI Chip Sales to China ‘In Limbo’ Due to New U.S. Curbs. The recently announced updates to U.S. export controls on AI chips have placed “in limbo” Nvidia’s $5 billion in next-year orders from Chinese tech companies. Originally scheduled to come into effect in mid-November, the new curbs on chip technology sales instead became effective in October, disrupting Nvidia’s plan to accelerate delivery to China of some 2024 orders. An Nvidia spokesperson said at the time, “these new export controls will not have a meaningful impact in the near term.” Nvidia reportedly will be required to cancel orders impacted by the more stringent rules unless it gets export licenses from the Commerce Department. Sources say that Nvidia stopped taking new Chinese orders for advanced AI chips in the wake of the new restrictions. Industry analysts say the latest chip restrictions will slow China’s development of advanced AI capabilities and force Chinese firms to use homegrown alternatives. Wall Street Journal
Lidar Sensors Emerge as New Front in U.S.-Chinese Technology Competition. The reversal of fortunes for a leading Shanghai manufacturer of laser sensors used in next-generation autonomous vehicles suggests the technology may become the latest point of friction in U.S.-Chinese technology competition. Hesai Group, which in February became the largest Chinese stock listing on the Nasdaq, has suffered a 50 percent drop in stock value and placed the company on the defensive. A key product of the company are lidar sensors that offer a three-dimensional view of the world in vehicles and weapons systems. According to the Wall Street Journal, citing critics in Washington, this technology has become “a focus of the latest U.S. efforts to control technology that could be used for spying and cyberattacks.” In response, Hesai CEO David Li has issued a written statement that the company’s lidars “don’t—and indeed cannot—pose a national security or privacy threat.” As the Journal notes, Hesai’s decline from “Wall Street darling to geopolitical target” illustrates how expanding technology restrictions can change a company’s future. Lidar technology’s market is now estimated at $2 billion for sensors used in autonomous vehicles and military uses in submarines, drones, and weapons systems. Recently, U.S representatives in the sector have formed a lobbying group to persuade policymakers and the public that China’s dominant role in the technology is a national security problem, requiring more support for U.S. lidar vendors. Members of Congress have complained in committee hearings and to the administration about the risks tied to lidar. A congressional research report underscored China’s questionable tactics to develop lidar using funding from U.S. capital markets. In July, the Senate passed an NDAA amendment that requires U.S. investors to notify the government of certain investments in lidar technology from China and other adversaries. Wall Street Journal
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
Japanese Man Suspected of Taking Hostages in Post Office Near Tokyo Arrested. Japanese authorities arrested an 86-year-old man on suspicion of taking two women hostage at a post office north of Tokyo on Tuesday. Police stormed the building, which was in the city of Warabi, after one of the hostages was released and the other fled. Japanese broadcaster NHK said both women were unhurt. NHK added that police are looking into whether the hostage-taking incident was linked to a hospital shooting in the neighboring Toda city that wounded two people. Violent crime, especially gun crime, is rare in Japan. There were only nine shooting incidents last year which resulted in four fatalities, including the killing of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. BBC Reuters
U.S. Hits Myanmar’s State Oil and Gas Enterprise with Form of Sanctions. The U.S. imposed a form of sanctions on Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) but did not impose full blocking sanctions on the entity, which is the main source of revenue for Myanmar’s ruling junta. The move prohibits Americans from providing certain financial services to MOGE starting on December 15. The measure is the first direct action against the entity, with the U.S. having only targeted its leadership in the past. The Treasury department did not add MOGE to the Specially Designated Nationals list, which would have essentially expelled it from the U.S. banking system, prohibited trade with Americans and freeze its American assets. The department also sanctioned three entities and five people allegedly connected with Myanmar’s military. Reuters U.S. Department of State
South Korea Says Closure of North Korean Diplomatic Missions Signal Economic Difficulties. South Korea’s unification ministry said on Tuesday that North Korea’s recent closures of its diplomatic missions in Angola and Uganda were signs that Pyongyang is struggling to make money overseas due to sanctions. Since the 1970’s, Angola and Uganda have forged ties with North Korea, maintaining a military relationship and providing foreign currency. However, on Monday, North Korea's state media, KCNA, said that its ambassador paid “farewell” to the leaders of Angola and Uganda last week. This comes as last week, Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper cited unnamed sources that said Pyongyang was planning to shut down 10 diplomatic missions, including in Hong Kong, largely due to economic difficulties. Reuters
Pakistan to Start Deporting Undocumented Immigrants on Thursday. Pakistan’s caretaker government’s interior minister Safraz Bugti said on Tuesday that Pakistani authorities will start rounding up and expelling undocumented immigrants on Thursday. Islamabad announced the decision earlier this month, which will impact an estimated 1.7 million migrants and refugees from neighboring Afghanistan. Bugti said that the operation will be “lengthy and gradual,” without adding details on the expected time frame. He also maintained that Pakistan will not deport any refugees and that the plan applies to “only those who are completely illegal.” He added that those who voluntarily leave will be assisted at temporary centers for two to three days. Pakistan has said Afghan nationals were involved in 14 suicide attacks in the country this year, as well as other crimes. Kabul has rejected these accusations. Reuters
Middle East and North Africa
Five Islamist Prisoners Escape Tunisian Jail. Five Islamist prisoners who were convicted of killing two secular politicians and policemen escaped from a Tunisian jail on Tuesday, marking a rare security failure by the North African country. Security sources said that the escapees were “very dangerous terrorists”. The men included “the Somali”, Ahmed Malki, who was serving a 24-year sentence for the assassination of secular politicians Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi in 2013. In response to the escape, the interior ministry said that two top intelligence officials had been dismissed. The director of the prison, the largest in the country, was also dismissed. Since Tunisia became a democracy in 2011, the country has suffered attacks by jihadist groups that have killed dozens of policemen, foreign tourists, and others. Remnants of Islamic State and al-Qaeda also remain active near Tunisia’s border with Algeria. Reuters Associated Press
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