10:00 AM ET, Tuesday, October 31, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
THE TOP STORIES
House Republicans Propose Israel Aid Plan. U.S. House Republicans proposed a $14.3 billion aid package for Israel on Monday, separating that assistance from the broader emergency funding proposal President Joe Biden has put forward. The Republican proposal sets aside the rest of Biden’s $106 billion request, which includes humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza and Israel, aid to Ukraine and Taiwan, and funds for U.S. border security. The Republican plan would take the $14.3 billion from IRS funding provided in the Inflation Reduction Act. The House Rules Committee plans to take up the bill on Tuesday, and Speaker Mike Johnson said he expects a House vote on the plan on Thursday. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre issued a statement saying Republicans are “politicizing national security” and calling their bill “a non-starter.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Republican plan’s provision to cut IRS enforcement will make it “much harder to pass.” He also criticized the omission of aid for Ukraine and Taiwan and said Republicans are giving in to “the false allures of isolationism.” Democrats added that cutting spending to pay for emergency measures sets a dangerous precedent. Meanwhile in the Senate, a bipartisan effort is underway to approve Biden’s entire $106 billion request. A Senate hearing on the request with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is planned for today. But Senate Republicans are divided over whether to include aid to Ukraine in an aid package for Israel. Bloomberg CNN Reuters The Hill Washington Post
China’s Spy Agency Cracking Down on Foreign Weather Stations. China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) said on Tuesday that it is cracking down on weather stations with foreign links because they pose a threat to national security. The ministry said hundreds of illegal meteorological facilities have been relaying information from sensitive sites including military bases. The ministry did not say which countries it alleges are involved. The MSS said it is “investigating and dealing with the relevant illegal activities.” Bloomberg South China Morning Post
Vietnam Seeking First Semiconductor Plant. Two U.S. business executives and a senior Vietnamese official told Reuters that Vietnam is talking with computer chip companies about increasing investment in Vietnam and possibly building the country’s first chip manufacturing plant, or “fab.” Tu Thanh, head of the Vietnam office of the US-ASEAN Business Council, said meetings with half a dozen U.S. chip companies have taken place in recent weeks. A chip executive who declined to be identified told Reuters that talks have included U.S. manufacturer GlobalFoundries and Taiwan’s PSMC. The meetings have come in the wake of an upgrade in formal ties between the U.S. and Vietnam, announced by President Joe Biden in September. Industry officials said meetings at this stage are mostly to gauge interest and discuss potential incentives and subsidies. The Vietnamese government has said it wants its first fab by the end of the decade, and said on Monday that chip companies would benefit from “the highest incentives available in Vietnam.” Reuters
China’s Factory Activity Falls in October. China’s factory activity declined this month and an expansion in its services sector cooled. The official manufacturing and purchasing managers’ index declined to 49.5 from 50.2 in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The manufacturing index, measuring activity in the construction and services sectors, declined to 50.6 from 51.7. The weaker-than-expected performance prompted calls from Beijing for additional stimulus. Some economists cautioned against too negative an assessment of the situation, pointing out that many businesses were closed for an eight-day holiday this month. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal
Ukraine Envoy to U.S. Calls for More Longer-Range Missiles. Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova told Bloomberg News, following her address to the annual Military Reporters and Editors conference on Friday, that the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles the U.S. has provided, which carry cluster munitions, “have been very effective” but that Ukraine needs longer-range versions of the weapon. The shorter-range missile has a range of about 100 miles. According to the U.S. Army’s weapons handbook, the newer version of ATACMS has a range almost twice as long. Kyiv has requested the longer-range versions to be able to strike targets behind frontlines deep within Russian-held territory. The Biden administration has been hesitant to send longer-range weapons to Ukraine for fear they might be fired into Russia. Bloomberg
Expert Perspective: Military AI Regulation Needed. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Cipher Brief Expert Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) writes in Bloomberg that while the Biden administration’s new executive order on artificial intelligence (AI) is a good start to regulating the technology, there are no similar efforts at the unclassified level regarding AI use for military activity. Stavridis says that AI, like other technological breakthroughs with military applications, will “rearrange the battlefield in significant ways.” He highlights how AI can be used to provide greater information to decision makers, disrupt adversaries’ intelligence collection, and launch new forms of offensive military cyberattacks. Stavridis warns that a major risk is that AI is being adopted “at an accelerated pace,” in comparison to the many years it took for other technology, ranging from gunpowder to military aviation, to reach its full lethal potential.
Stavridis calls for strong military guard rails around AI similar to nuclear arms control agreements. Key elements to consider include maintaining human involvement to curb lethal decision-making by AI; restricting AI use for nuclear command and control systems; a Geneva Conventions-like set of rules regarding manipulation or harm to civilians with AI; and limits on AI-driven “swarm” attacks by unmanned sensors and missiles. Stavridis adds that the 1972 Cold War “Incidents at Sea” protocols provide a good model for such military regulations and that a multilateral path — including not only NATO but also China and Russia, at a minimum — is needed. Bloomberg
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Netanyahu Rules Out Ceasefire, Dismisses Calls to Resign. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will not agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, arguing that “this is a time for war” and that a ceasefire will only strengthen Hamas and will amount to a “surrender to terrorism.” He also dismissed accusations that Israel is collectively punishing the two million Palestinians in Gaza for the Hamas attacks, saying that Israel is “going out of our way to prevent civilian casualties,” highlighting Israeli warnings to civilians to leave northern Gaza. Israel has faced criticism from the U.N., Arab countries and others for civilian casualties in Gaza and its blockade of electricity, fuel and most food and water supplies to Gaza. Netanyahu also defiantly dismissed calls to resign, saying he is focused on eliminating Hamas. Bloomberg New York Times Times of Israel Wall Street Journal
Israel Attacks Hamas Inside Gazan Tunnel Network. Israel on Tuesday reported that its forces assaulted Hamas militants inside the organization’s massive tunnel network under Gaza, striking an estimated 300 targets “including anti-tank missile and rocket launch posts below shafts” and “military compounds inside underground tunnels.” Israeli troops say they are “expanding” actions in Gaza with strikes “in all parts” of the territory but with a focus on the north. Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades claimed that it engaged with Israeli soldiers in southern Gaza with machine guns and targeted “four vehicles with al-Yassin 105 missiles.” The Brigades also said it attacked two Israeli tanks and bulldozers in northwestern Gaza with anti-tank missiles. Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post
Israel Intercepts ‘Aerial Target’ Near Red Sea Town, Houthis Claim Drone Attack. The Israeli military said that it downed an approaching “aerial target” headed towards the Red Sea town of Eilat on Tuesday. After initial warning of a possible “hostile aircraft intrusion” that triggered air raid sirens in the Red Sea resort, the military said that its air defenses intercepted the aerial target and that “there was no threat or risk to civilians.” Yemen’s Houthi rebels have since claimed to have launched a drone towards Eilat in “retaliation” for Israeli military actions in Gaza. Reuters
Saudi Arabia’s Military on High Alert After Houthi Clashes. Saudi Arabia’s military is in a state of high alert after clashes with Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Four Saudi soldiers were reportedly killed last week in the clashes in the kingdom’s southwestern Jazan Province on the border with Yemen. Saudi defense forces also reportedly intercepted one missile over Saudi territory from a barrage of cruise missiles and drones launched by the Houthis towards Israel. The violence comes amid the tentative truce reached with the Houthis to try and negotiate an end to the Yemen war, marking another example of how the Israel-Hamas conflict is destabilizing the region. Bloomberg
Saudi Defense Minister Visits Washington. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman arrived in Washington on Monday to meet senior Biden administration officials on Monday. Sources say the visit has been long scheduled, but KBS’s trip comes amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. The White House said KBS met with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to discuss defense ties between Washington and Riyadh. Sullivan reportedly reiterated the U.S. commitment to protecting partners from threats in the region, including non-state actors backed by Iran, and praised the recent de-escalation of the conflict in Yemen. The White House said the two also discussed the situation in Gaza, building off of President Joe Biden’s recent phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman. Sullivan and KBS affirmed the need to increase humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza, avoid expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict, and work towards a sustainable peaceful resolution between the Israelis and Palestinians. KBS is also reportedly meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Saudi Arabia has condemned the targeting of civilians in Gaza amid Israeli air strikes on the territory following the Hamas attacks. Times of Israel The White House
Israeli Air Strikes Hit Lebanon. Israel’s military said its fighter jets struck military infrastructure used by Hezbollah in Lebanon, including “weapons, posts and sites.” Earlier on Monday, Hezbollah said it fired guided missiles at Israeli targets near the Lebanese border. Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters have been exchanging fire across the Israel-Lebanon border since the Hamas attacks on October 7, raising fears about an expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Bloomberg
U.N. Warns Israel-Hamas Conflict Spilling Over Into Syria. Geir Pedersen, U.N. Special Envoy on Syria, warned the U.N. Security Council that the spillover of the Israel-Hamas conflict into Syria “is not just a risk; it has already begun.” Pedersen cited the strikes against airports in Aleppo and Damascus, which made aid deliveries to the area by the U.N. Humanitarian Air Service temporarily impossible. Pedersen urged a de-escalation of violence to restore “Syria’s sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity,” adding that Syria is already suffering from violence by extremist groups like ISIL, a worsening economy, and unsafe refugee conditions. Bloomberg U.N. News
Head of Israeli Foreign Intelligence Traveled to Qatar for Hostage Talks. David Barnea, the head of Israel’s foreign intelligence agency Mossad, traveled to Qatar this weekend and met Qatari officials to discuss the release of hostages held by Hamas. This visit came as the Israeli military increased ground operations in Gaza, which has placed hostages and hostage negotiations in an uncertain position. Axios reported that release talks resumed with Barnea’s latest visit and that “positive and constructive” conversations were being had, though they have not yet resulted in “a breakthrough.” Al Jazeera Axios
Drones Target Iraq Base Hosting U.S. Troops. Two armed drones reportedly targeted Iraq’s Ain al-Asad airbase, which hosts U.S. and international troops, on Tuesday. Sources say the attack did not cause damage or casualties. A group called the “Islamic resistance in Iraq” endorsed the attack. Four Katyusha rockets were fired at the base on Monday. U.S. forces in the region have been increasingly targeted since the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Reuters
Japan Imposes Hamas-Related Sanctions. The Japanese foreign ministry on Tuesday announced sanctions against nine individuals and a business linked to Hamas. The sanctions freeze the assets of the individuals and the company, which Japan has accused of aiding in financing Hamas. The measures are similar to the sanctions imposed by the U.S. against Hamas this month and they are the first sanctions Tokyo has imposed against the militant group. Al Jazeera Reuters
Expert Perspective: The U.S. Public Relations Crisis in the Arab and Muslim World. Former Special Representative to Muslim Communities at the U.S. State Department and Cipher Brief Expert Farah Pandith writes for the Council on Foreign Relations about how the Israel-Hamas conflict has caused a torrent of anti-American sentiment in many Arab and Muslim communities. Due to U.S. declarations of its “ironclad commitment” to Israel, many in the Middle East connect the actions of Israel to Washington, expressing outrage at both for Israeli military actions in Gaza.
Pandith argues that the U.S. does not have control of the narrative and lacks the messaging capacity to address this quickly developing, emotionally charged issue — similar to the predicament the U.S. faced in the post-9/11 period.
She writes that this dynamic around the situation in Gaza will complicate foreign policy efforts in the region, making it harder to engage with publics with increased anti-U.S. sentiments and giving U.S. enemies in the region more political cover for anti-U.S. actions. It also increases the risk of violence against Israelis, Palestinians, Jews, Muslims and those mistaken for members of those groups, like Sikhs, in the homeland.
Pandith says that the Biden administration must remain active and broaden engagement with Arab and Muslim communities to counter these threats. Solutions she suggests include focusing on connecting with Generation Z and Millennial members; more strongly drawing comparisons between terrorist actions of Hamas and other groups like the Taliban and al-Qaeda; and truly influencing culture, such as by investing in public diplomacy and addressing the impact of social media. Council on Foreign Relations
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine Advances in Bakhmut Area. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukrainian forces advanced northeast of Kurdiumivka, southwest of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Separate geolocated footage from Sunday also indicates that Ukrainian troops marginally advanced west of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region. The Ukrainian General Staff maintains that it is continuing offensive operations near Bakhmut and in the Melitopol direction. Ukraine’s military reports that Russia has bolstered its forces near Bakhmut and shifted them from defensive to offensive postures. Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War
Ukraine Reports Strikes in Crimea. The Ukrainian military’s Center for Strategic Communications said Ukrainian forces struck a strategic air defense facility on the western coast of Crimea overnight. Earlier on Monday, the Russian Telegram channel Astra reported a Ukrainian missile strike hit a Russian air defense base near the village of Olenivka in western Crimea. Astra said sources reported the attack injured 17 Russian soldiers and damaged five military vehicles. Apparently in a separate incident, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces shot down eight Storm Shadow missiles it said were launched by Ukraine into Crimea. Meanwhile, the Center for Strategic Communications report also said a Ukrainian strike near occupied Luhansk last Wednesday hit a Russian S-400 air defense system. Kyiv Independent
Russia Replaces Kherson Military Commander. The U.K.’s Ministry of Defense reports that Russia has replaced the commander of its forces in occupied areas of Ukraine’s southern Kherson region. According to Russian state-run news agency TASS, Colonel General Oleg Makarevich has been replaced by Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, the deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. A Russian-installed official in the Zaporizhzhia region said Makarevich was removed from his position for providing false reports about the situation on the ground. The ministry added that Teplinsky is “likely held in high regard” by the Russian military, in part due to his role in the withdrawal of Russian troops from the west of the Dnipro River in November 2022. The leadership shuffle suggests that Russian forces are facing pressure from Ukrainian troops in Kherson. Kyiv Independent U.K. Ministry of Defense X
Ukraine Working to Recruit Military Talent with ‘Smart Mobilization.’ Mykhailo Fedorov, the head of Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Ministry, stated on Monday that his ministry plans to begin a “smart mobilization” project to attract military specialists. The project will begin by attracting those interested in drone strikes and operations on a voluntary basis and connecting them with companies willing to train them and offer job positions. Fedorov told reporters that if a decent number of people appeared interested in volunteering, the same tools would be applied to those interested in “sappers, drives, all other positions.” Kyiv Independent
Russian PMC Recruiting Women into Combat Roles for First Time. The U.K. Ministry of Defense reports that a Russian state-backed private military company (PMC) is attempting to recruit women into combat roles in Ukraine for the first time. Recent social media advertisements have attempted to recruit women to the Borz Battalion, a part of the Russian PMC Redut, to serve in roles such as snipers and aerial vehicle operators. Redut is likely directly sponsored by Russia’s Main Directorate of Intelligence. Additionally, in March of 2023, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that 1,100 women were deployed in Ukraine in mostly medical support and food service roles. It remains unclear if the Russian defense forces will follow suit and attempt to recruit more women to combat roles. UK Ministry of Defense X
Russian Tycoon, Chief of Alfa Group Arrested in France. French officials have detained Russian oligarch and Alfra Group partner Alexey Kuzmichev on suspicions of money laundering, tax evasion, and sanctions violations, according to a report from Le Monde on Monday. France’s top prosecutor said that 60 law enforcement agents who searched both Kuzmichev’s flat in Paris and his villa in Saint-Tropez discovered “wads of money on the floor.” No charges have been filed yet. Soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the E.U. added Kuzmichev to its sanction list. He was considered to be one of Moscow’s most influential tycoons, and Forbes estimated his wealth to be around $6.5 billion this year. In March, French authorities froze two of Kuzmichev's yachts after the U.S. imposed sanctions against Alfa Bank in April of 2022. In August of this year, Washington also imposed sanctions on Kuzmichev and other Russian elites connected to the Alfa Group. Kuzmichev could not be reached for a comment. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg Financial Times Le Monde Reuters
Dutch PM Says F-16 Jets to Arrive in Romania for Ukrainian Pilot Training in Two Weeks. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced on Monday that the F-16 fighter jets which the Netherlands promised to provide for Kyiv will be shipped to Romania in two weeks for Ukrainian pilots to begin training on. In a video call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Rutte reaffirmed that the Netherlands will continue to assist Kyiv “in the face of continued Russian aggression” for “as long as necessary.” He added that the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza will not distract the Netherlands from the plight of Ukraine, or change the fact that ending Russia’s attempts at domination is “our priority.” Rutte’s comments come days after Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said that the Netherlands would deliver "12 to 18 aircraft to Romania" in the coming weeks. It is believed that Ukrainian pilots will be trained on the jets by the summer of 2024. Kyiv Independent Reuters
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
AI Executive Order Tasks Multiple Federal Agencies with National Security Roles. Repercussions of the new executive order (EO) on AI will be felt across multiple sectors, with Bruce Reed, the White House Deputy Chief of Staff, describing the order as “the next step in an aggressive strategy to do everything on all fronts to harness the benefits of AI and mitigate the risks.” National security figures prominently among the goals of the EO as a White House fact sheet points out that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will apply red-team standards developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) “to critical infrastructure sectors.” DHS and the Energy Department also are directed to address potential AI threats to critical infrastructure and to AI risks related to chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and cybersecurity sectors. In addition, the EO creates a new cyber security program to explore the role AI could play in potential attacks, and directs the Commerce Department to develop methods to detect AI-generated content that could be used for fraud or disinformation. The National Science Foundation is tasked with developing cryptographic tools and other technologies to shield private data collected by AI tools. DefenseOne
Biden Administration Expected To Announce New Counter-Ransomware Initiatives The Biden administration is expected to put the final touches on a new policy Tuesday that details the ways governments should respond to ransomware attacks, according to a senior official. The policy would include provisions for sharing information on attackers and their ransomware infrastructures. The administration’s policy has been to reject ransom demands, a posture the White House has been urging other governments to adopts. At the International Counter Ransomware Initiative meeting this week, significant initiatives for sharing attack information between countries will be announced. An unidentified official said “we're committing to sharing bad wallets - wallets that are used to move illicit ransom funds - as well as a number of other related projects.” According to the Statista data platform, organizations worldwide detected almost 500 million ransomware attack attempts last year, many of which crossed national boundaries making multinational partnerships essential in the fight against them. A U.S.-led counter-ransomware alliance now includes 50 countries, the official said, adding that the Interpol and the European Union are also in the partnership. Reuters
MOVEit Breach Impacted Over 600,000 Email Addresses at Pentagon, Justice. A report by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) reveals new details about a compromise of the MOVEit file transfer software that included giving hackers access to email addresses of over 600,000 employees of the Defense and Justice Departments. Federal cybersecurity officials had earlier confirmed breaches of government systems without detailing the scope of the attacks or the agencies impacted. The OPM report said the threat actor, largely reported to be the Clop ransomware gang, accessed government email addresses, links to government employee surveys administered by OPM, and internal OPM tracking codes. In addition to DoD and Justice employees, impacted staff included the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, and Defense agencies and field activities. Justice and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment. So far, more than 2,500 organizations worldwide have been affected by the MOVEit vulnerability. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent
India Opposition Accuses Government of Attempted Hack of Lawmakers' iPhones. Indian opposition leader Rahul Gandhi accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of trying to hack senior opposition lawmakers’ mobile phones. Some of the lawmakers posted screenshots on social media showing warning messages from Apple saying the company “believes you are being targeted by state-sponsored attackers” trying to compromise their phones. Information Technology Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw expressed concern over the accusation and said the government has asked Apple to assist in an investigation. Apple said it did not attribute the threat notifications to any specific attacker, and it also raised the possibility that the threat notifications “may be false alarms.” Reuters
Iran Intensifying Regional Hacking Campaigns. Prominent Israeli-American cybersecurity company Check Point has issued a report saying Iranian hackers are conducting a sophisticated espionage campaign targeting the country’s rivals in the Middle East and attacking key defense and intelligence agencies. The report said that over the past year, hackers linked to the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security have struck in several countries, including Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Targets include government staffers, militaries, telecommunications companies and financial organizations. The report also said the hacking is “notably more sophisticated” than previous activities. A senior Israeli official who deals with cyber issues confirmed that in recent months, a group called LionTail has been conducting an attack against various national and local institutions in Israel. Another official said LionTail is one of 15 groups affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence. That official also said that in recent months, there have been attempts by Iranian cyber groups, or those belonging to Hamas or Hezbollah, to hack cameras in Israel. New York Times
Generative AI Role in Hamas-Israel Information War Seen as Subtle, Not Decisive. Generative AI is playing a notable, but perhaps more subtle role in the disinformation campaigns surrounding the Hamas-Israel conflict than might have been expected, or feared. Layla Mashkoor, an associate editor at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, acknowledged the presence of AI-generated images online, but said “not to the degree where I think it’s playing a central role in the spread of information.” Instead, Mashkoor said, AI-generated disinformation is being used to shape public impressions of support for one side or another. Examples cited by Wired include an AI-generated billboard celebrating the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), and conversely explicit AI images of injured civilians in Gaza. Mashkoor says these promotional uses of AI are “not among the most malicious ways to utilize AI right now.” In addition, the sheer volume of actual images and other content is swamping social media platforms, leaving limited space for fabricated material. Despite this less-than-pivotal role in information warfare so far, generative AI has staked out a place in the disinformation ecosystem. According to Hany Farid, UC Berkeley professor in the School of Information, generative AI products are “far more prevalent” than when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Wired
UN Panel Reports North Korean Cryptocurrency Thefts in 2022 Reached $1.7 Billion. A UN panel of experts has reported that North Korean state-sponsored hackers stole $1.7 billion in cryptocurrency in 2022, three times the amount extracted illegally in 2021. Threat actors working on behalf of North Korea’s military intelligence service, the Reconnaissance General Bureau, employed “increasingly sophisticated cyber techniques to steal funds and information.” The panel noted that the cryptocurrency, defense, energy, and health sectors continue to be favored targets for North Korean attacks. The thefts of cryptocurrency is thought to provide funds for North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs. The North Korean regime also benefits from funding that comes from overseas North Korean workers. A South Korean spokesperson for the reunification ministry, Koo Byoung-sam, said that North Korea’s “seizure of illicit funds to secure money for its rule and development of weapons of mass destruction is becoming bolder day by day, in means and scale.” Cybernews
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
Gunman Holds Hostages at Japanese Post Office. A suspected gunman took at least two people hostage in a post office in the Japanese city of Warabi, north of Tokyo, after wounding two other people in a shooting at a hospital in neighboring Toda city. Local authorities said it is unclear how many hostages were taken and that the suspect is “in possession of something like a handgun.” Japanese broadcaster NHK said at least two post office workers were taken hostage and that a woman had walked out of the building into police custody. Violent crime, especially gun crime, is rare in Japan. There were only nine shooting incidents last year which resulted in four fatalities, including the killing of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. New York Times Reuters Washington Post
Philippines Denies Report that China Blocked Vessel Near Scarborough Shoal. The Philippines on Tuesday denied reports that the Chinese military blocked a Philippine vessel patrolling close to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano said that a Philippine Navy ship performed normal patrol operations near the shoal “without any untoward incident,” and he maintained that the vessel did not “illegally enter any space under Chinese sovereignty,” as the shoal belongs to the Philippines. Tian Junli, spokesperson for China’s Southern Theater Command, called on Manila to cease its provocations and contraventions after its military claimed to have cautioned, then blocked, a Philippine ship that “illegally” entered waters near Huangyan Island, its name for the Scarborough Shoal. On Monday, Ano accused Beijing of “over hyping” the situation and causing tensions in the region and reaffirmed that Manila will not be deterred by China’s “aggressive” activities. Bloomberg Reuters
Taiwanese Opposition Parties Team Up Ahead of January Elections. The two main opposition parties of Taiwan have joined forces in an effort to garner more votes ahead of the January parliamentary elections, though the two have stated that further discussion is needed before announcing a joint ticket for the presidential vote. This issue of China looms over the election as Beijing has ramped up military and political pressure on Taiwan in recent months. The Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) opposition groups have previously stated a desire to pursue greater dialogue with China. Beijing cut off talks with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 2016 when President Tsai Ing-wen took office. The DPP advocates for strengthening Taiwanese identity separate from China. Reuters South China Morning Post
Two Killed in Bangladesh Anti-Government Protests. Clashes between anti-government protesters and police at demonstrations calling for the resignation of Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina killed two people and injured dozens more on Tuesday. The main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), called for the blockade of roads for three days in response to clashes between BNP supporters and police on Sunday, in which one policeman was killed and more than 100 other people injured. The BNP has been calling for Hasina to resign to allow elections to be held under a neutral caretaker government in January. Hasina came into power in 2009 and oversaw years of strong economic growth but has been accused of human rights violations such as cracking down on free speech and jailing critics. Reuters
Indonesia Arrests Suspected Militants Ahead of Elections. Indonesia’s counter-terrorism unit arrested 59 suspected Islamist militants on Tuesday. According to the unit’s spokesperson Aswin Siregar, the militants were suspected of planning to disrupt the upcoming election and attack police facilities. Nineteen of the militants who were arrested were allegedly from the Jemaah Islamiah (JI) network, which has ties to Al Qaeda, while the 40 others were allegedly a part of Jamahiriya Ansharut Daulah (JAD), which has pledged allegiance to Islamic State. The suspects were arrested from October 2 to October 28. Police confiscated various firearms and chemicals to make bombs during the arrests. Indonesia has been plagued with a string of terrorist attacks following 9/11. However, security analysts say that the threat from militants has diminished significantly in recent years, largely due to successful security force operations. Reuters Al Jazeera
Africa
U.S. Expelling Gabon, Niger, Uganda, CAR from Trade Program. President Joe Biden announced on Monday that he plans to expel Gabon, Niger, Uganda and the Central African Republic (CAR) from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade program. Biden noted "gross violations" of internationally recognized human rights by Uganda and CAR and Gabon and Niger’s inability to institute or make advancements toward the safeguarding of political pluralism and the rule of law following their coups this year. In a letter to the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, he said that the nations have not managed to confront Washington’s “concerns about their non-compliance with the AGOA eligibility criteria.” By the January 1, 2024, Biden said he will end the designation of these nations as beneficiary sub-Saharan African states under the AGOA. The AGOA, which was created in 2000 and is set to expire in September of 2025, gives exports from qualifying nations duty-free access to the American market. Reuters BBC
Germany’s Chancellor Met with Nigerian President. On Sunday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu met to discuss trade and investment in West Africa. The two leaders were also looking to expand partnerships in energy production, especially for hydrogen energy production, and work out new migration arrangements. Nigeria, which is also home to the largest natural gas reserve in Africa, has assisted Europe in meeting energy needs since the start of the war in Ukraine. Scholz also expressed a need to secure democracy in West Africa and met with the president of the ECOWAS Commission, Omar Alieu Touray, to discuss recent coups in the region. Associated Press AfricaNews
The Americas
Haiti Suspends Nicaragua-Bound Flights. The Haitian government suspended all flights from the capital of Port-au-Prince bound for Nicaragua, according to a Monday report from the Miami Herald. This move effectively puts an end to a vital route for Haitian migrants who seek to enter the U.S. Despite the report, Haiti’s government has made no announcement about the flight suspension and did not respond to a request from Reuters for a comment. Data from the flight tracking site FlightRadar24 shows that there were no flights Monday on the Port-au-Prince to Managua route, while on Sunday there were 12 flights, most of them charter carriers, between the two cities. Because Nicaragua does not require Haitians to obtain a visa to enter the nation, up to 15 flights each day have transported thousands of Haitian nationals to the Central American country. From August to October, more than 31,400 Haitian citizens have taken flights to Managua. Additionally on Monday, the Dominican Republic’s civil aviation agency JAC revealed that it has lifted a more than month-old suspension of passenger and cargo flights to and from Haiti. Reuters Miami Herald
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