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5:30 PM ET, Tuesday, November 7, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's top headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

Biden Briefed on Potential Chinese Plan to Build Military Base in Oman.  President Joe Biden has reportedly been briefed on potential plans by China to open a military facility in Oman.  Sources say Biden was told that Chinese and Omani military officials discussed the matter last month and agreed to continue talks in the coming weeks.  The precise location of the facility and what it would house were not immediately known.  The White House, China’s Foreign Ministry and Oman’s embassy in the U.S. did not respond to requests for comment on the matter.  China currently has only one overseas military facility, which it calls a “logistics center,” in the East African country of Djibouti.  The Pentagon says Beijing has been seeking more bases in the region to complement its Djibouti facility.  Oman regularly follows a policy of neutrality, acting as a regional mediator, including between the U.S. and Iran, and maintaining close ties with China, which imports most of Oman’s crude output and has invested in Oman’s Duqm special economic zone.  Oman is near the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane for oil and liquefied natural gas.  It is also near areas where the U.S. has stationed troops, including in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.  The U.S. also has several hundred troops in Oman, mostly from the Air Force.  Bloomberg

U.S. Senate Democrats Block House Bill on Israel Aid.  U.S. Senate Democrats on Tuesday blocked an effort by Republican Senators to approve a bill passed by the House of Representatives last week that would have provided $14.3 billion in emergency aid to Israel but did not include assistance for Ukraine.  Democrats objected to the bill, emphasizing the need to send aid to both Israel and Ukraine, as well as provide funding for humanitarian aid, border security, and efforts to counter China in the Indo-Pacific, as requested in President Joe Biden’s $106 billion funding request he sent to Congress last month.  Senate Democrats also criticized the House bill for proposing to cut funding for the Internal Revenue Service to fund the aid for Israel, calling it a politically motivated “poison pill” that would increase the U.S. budget deficit by curbing tax collection.  Senate leaders are writing their own supplemental funding bill to address the various issues and hope to introduce it in the coming days.  Reuters

U.S., China Hold ‘Constructive’ Arms Control Talks.  The U.S. and China held arms control and non-proliferation talks on Monday, the first of their kind since July 2019.  The U.S. State Department described the talks as ”constructive” and part of efforts to maintain open lines of communication.  The department added that the U.S. side called on China to “help avert an unconstrained arms race” by increasing Chinese nuclear transparency and engagement on practical measures to mitigate strategic risks.  Experts said the talks covered a wide range of issues but did not reach any breakthroughs, as expected.  The U.S. delegation included Mallory Stewart, assistant secretary of state for arms control, and senior officials from the departments of State, Defense and Energy and the National Security Council.  Sun Xiaobo, who leads the Chinese foreign ministry’s arms control department, attended the meeting.  The arms control talks came after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s trip to Washington last month and ahead of an expected meeting between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco later this month.  South China Morning Post

Chinese Shandong Carrier Strike Group Headed to South China Sea.  Japan’s Defense Ministry reports that a Chinese carrier strike group made up of at least 10 warships — including the Shandong aircraft carrier, five destroyers, three frigates and a fast combat support ship — is headed for the South China Sea after finishing a week-long drill in the western Pacific.  The ministry said the carrier conducted ship-borne aircraft operations, mostly involving J-15 fighter jets, south of Japan’s Miyako Island and east of the Philippines’ Luzon Island.  The carrier group then went through the Bashi Channel between Luzon and Taiwan and sailed towards the South China Sea on Monday.  The drills came as Japan and the Philippines held talks on boosting military cooperation, including discussions on a reciprocal access agreement.  South China Morning Post

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli Forces Push into ‘Heart’ of Gaza City.  Israel’s military says it is now operating deep in the heart of Gaza City in its ground offensive of Gaza.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed that Gaza City is “encircled” and that Israeli forces are “operating inside it” and that they are “increasing pressure on Hamas every hour, every day,” adding that Israel’s military has killed “thousands of terrorists.”  Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israeli forces entered Gaza City from the north and south to target Hamas commanders and infrastructure, highlighting the militant group’s network of tunnels and underground command centers as main targets.  Israel’s military added that Hamas militants have fired anti-tank missiles from near hospitals and that Israeli troops found weapons hidden by Hamas in a school in northern Gaza.  Hamas says it is inflicting heavy losses and damage on attacking Israeli forces.  The reports could not be immediately independently verified.  Israeli forces also continue airstrikes in Gaza.  The Israel Defense Forces said it attacked a building near al-Quds Hospital in Gaza City that it claimed Hamas fighters “planned to launch an attack” from.  An airstrike on the building led to “significant secondary explosions,” which the IDF said suggested ammunition was being stored in the building.  The Palestine Red Crescent Society said the attack caused “a state of fear and panic” amongst displaced Palestinians sheltering in the hospital.  In southern Gaza, residents reported strikes on the town of Rafah and the city of Khan Younis, which reportedly killed several people.  Reuters Washington Post Al Jazeera

Foreign Passport Holders Continue to Leave Gaza in Limited Evacuations.  Hundreds of foreign nationals were on a list permitting them to leave Gaza through the Rafah crossing into Egypt on Tuesday.  The list, issued by the Gaza border authority, included hundreds of citizens of France, Moldova, Ukraine, Germany and Romania, as well as two British nationals, dozens of Canadians and 45 Filipinos.  It is unclear how many people actually left Gaza on Tuesday.  Hundreds of foreign nationals have left Gaza through Rafah since last week.  The U.S. State Department said over 400 U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents have left since November 1.  The U.N. reported that 93 aid trucks entered Gaza through the crossing on Monday.  The U.N. said aid flows into Gaza are still “far below” what is needed for the 2.3 million Palestinians in the territory.  Washington Post 

Israel Launches Operation in West Bank Refugee Camp.  Israeli forces said they launched an operation in the Tulkarm refugee camp in the northern West Bank on Tuesday.  The Israel Defense Forces said it found explosive weaponry in its raids and that an Israeli aircraft “attacked a group of armed militants that endangered our forces.”  It is unclear if there were any casualties in the camp, which the U.N. has said is one of the most densely populated in the West Bank.  Israeli forces arrested 28 people across the West Bank overnight, accusing 11 of having links to Hamas.  Washington Post 

Zelensky Postpones Israel Visit.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer visiting Israel on Tuesday due to the news leak of his trip, according to the Times of Israel, citing Israeli diplomatic sources.  Zelensky is still making the trip, but there are no set dates for when he will visit.  Media reports on Saturday said Zelensky was set to visit Israel this week.  Zelensky initially offered to visit Israel over two weeks ago at the start of the Israel-Hamas war, but the Israeli government declined, saying it would be premature.  Kyiv Independent Times of Israel

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky Says First Dutch F-16 Fighter Jets to Train Ukrainian Pilots in Romania.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that five Dutch F-16 fighter jets have arrived in Romania to be used to train Ukrainian pilots.  The Netherlands previously committed to providing 12-18 F-16s for training, with the planes remaining as Dutch property and only being flown in NATO territory.  It is estimated that the first Ukrainian pilots to undergo F-16 training will be ready to fly them for combat by summer 2024.  Kyiv Independent

Zelensky Approves Plan To Strengthen Ukrainian Energy Sector Before Winter.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday approved a plan proposed by the National Security and Defense Council to stabilize and strengthen Ukraine’s energy sector ahead of the coming winter.  Short-term measures to be completed within a month include the repaying of debts on the electricity and gas markets, offering support to state-owned enterprises, and increasing the throughput capacity of the gas transportation system.  Within two months, the plan calls for the strengthening of alternative energy production and the introduction of criminal liability for operators and industrial consumers who partake in unauthorized gas withdrawals.  Longer-term tasks to be completed within half a year include modernizing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to increase its efficiency and sustainability.  The ban on Ukrainian gas exports was also extended until 2024.  Kyiv Independent

Latvia Says Russian Aircraft Violated its Airspace.  Latvia’s Defense Ministry reports that a Russian aircraft violated Latvian airspace on Monday.  The ministry said Lativan military radar detected the unspecified Russian aircraft and that it returned to Russia after the incident.  The ministry added that Latvia’s military took “necessary actions” to protect Latvian security and shared intelligence on the incident with NATO.  Latvia’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s interim charge d’affaires over the incident.  Latvia has been strengthening its border with Russia and Belarus amid heightened tensions from the Ukraine war.  Kyiv Independent

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Israeli Cyber Chief Prepared for Intensifying Hacking Campaigns Supported by Iran.  Israel’s cyber defense chief has said he is “very concerned” about the prospects for Iran to intensify its aggressive actions in cyberspace in the wake of recent attacks on Israeli security cameras.  Even more serious disruptions of critical infrastructure are among the concerns expressed by Gaby Portnoy, chief of Israel’s National Cyber Directorate, in an interview with CNN.  Portnoy affirmed Israel’s readiness for a ramp-up of Iranian attacks while noting that Tehran “can act more freely [in cyberspace] than in the physical space.”  Portnoy said his agency’s goal is to prevent cyberspace from becoming another front in the Hamas-Israel conflict.  Cybersecurity experts have told CNN that hacks of a number of Israeli security cameras and video implants offering instruction on the use of Molotov cocktails against Western embassies are suspected to have been carried out by Iranian hackers.  Portnoy claimed that Hezbollah-linked hackers have breached private security cameras in Israel in attempts to track Israeli soldiers’ movements in recent weeks.  The Israeli cyber chief also noted that a hacking group known as Soldiers of Solomon, which has claimed a role in security camera intrusions, is believed to be supported by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.  CNN

Bipartisan Congressional Group Proposes Restricted Section 702 Surveillance Options.  A bipartisan group of House and Senate legislators Tuesday introduced a bill that would significantly restrict Federal intelligence and law enforcement authorities from the use of surveillance capabilities permitted by Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Act.  The proposed measure drew swift criticism from the Biden administration, with a senior official commenting on the “red line” represented by “the operationally unworkable and fundamentally inept requirement to go to a court before accessing already lawfully collected information.”  The bill, titled the Government Surveillance Reform Act of 2023, includes a requirement that the FBI obtain search warrants before probing NSA data holdings for information related to Americans.  The bill also proposes to close loopholes that allow data brokers to sell consumer data to law enforcement and federal agencies.  A congressional aide commented that the “big tent reform bill…has been thought out and is comprehensive. Reform is the consensus.”  FBI Director Christopher Wray last week warned the Senate Homeland Security Committee of the consequences of “watered down” surveillance authorities that might hamper law enforcement efforts to thwart foreign terrorist attacks, among other threats.  The Record Reuters CyberScoop

Meta Bars Use of Generative AI Production Tools by Political Advertisers.  Meta, the parent company of Facebook, has announced that it will bar political campaigns and advertisers from using its generative AI advertising products.  The decision is seen as a move to withhold tools that legislators have warned could intensify election misinformation.  In a posted notification, Meta confirmed that advertisers for elections or political themes, among several other topics, are not “currently permitted to use” generative AI tools offered in the company’s Ads Manager service.   The company explained that "we believe this approach will allow us to better understand potential risks and build the right safeguards for the use of Generative AI in ads that relate to potentially sensitive topics in regulated industries."  Meta ranks as the world’s second-largest platform for digital advertising and has been expanding its offering to advertisers of AI tools that can generate images and texts in response to user prompts.  Google, the largest digital advertiser, has scheduled a mid-November policy update that will require election-related ads to disclose "synthetic content that inauthentically depicts real or realistic-looking people or events."  Reuters Engadget Cybernews

China Announces New Export Reporting Requirements for Rare Earth Metals.  The Chinese Ministry of Commerce Tuesday announced reporting requirements for exporters of rare earth metals and oxide products as an economic security measure that went into effect on October 31 for a period of two years.  The new regulations encompass both export and import transactions and require traders to provide real time reports on country-of-origin information, contract dates, quantities involved, and shipment and arrival details.  Rare earths are the only item on the export reporting list.  Importers of crude oil, iron ore, copper ore concentrates, and potash fertilizer have also been asked to report orders and shipments.  Transaction data will be compiled and analyzed by the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals and Chemicals Importers and Exporters, a semi-official trade organization, for relay to the Commerce Ministry.  Premier Li Qiang told a State Council meeting on Friday that China should coordinate and ensure proper planning for rare earth exploration, development and research. The State Council has confirmed measures to crack down on illegal mining and promote breakthroughs in high-end rare earth materials.  South China Morning Post Nikkei Asia

Nikkei Ranking Shows Growing Chinese Patent Edge in Cybersecurity Technology.  China’s long-recognized competitiveness in patents is extending to a new field – cybersecurity technology – with six of the top 10 global patent holdings held by companies like Huawei and Tencent.  Nikkei rankings indicate that Chinese firms have made inroads in sectors impacting economic security as they concentrate on domestic alternatives to sanctioned Western technology.  As of August, IBM led rankings associated with cybersecurity with 6,363 patents, followed by Huawei Technologies with 5,735 patents and Tencent Holdings with 4,803, second and third, respectively.  Four other Chinese companies registered in the top ten patents, including Ant Group financial services with 3,922, State Grid Corporation with 3,696, Alibaba Group with 3,122 and China Investment Corp with 3,042.  Patent holdings for Huawei and Tencent are 2.3 times and 13 times higher, respectively, than they were 10 years ago; IBM’s holding are 1.5 times higher.  The Chinese companies have clear concentrations in specific sectors, with Huawei holding a large number of cyber patents in wireless and other communications technologies. Tencent focuses on authentication technologies while the Ant Group holds many patents in query languages for database processing requests.  Nikkei’s rankings indexed each patent according to its number of citations — a gauge of its technical value — and the market conditions where the patents are held.  According to this index, Huawei and Ant Group placed first and second to surpass IBM. Nikkei reports that over the past five to six years, Chinese company filings have included a higher percentage of the latest technology than IBM and others.  Nikkei Asia

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Former Head of Chinese State-Owned Company Sentenced to Six Years in Prison on Espionage Charges.  A court in southwest China sentenced a former executive of a state-owned company to six years in jail on espionage charges.  State media reported that the man used to head the overseas arm of a state-owned firm based in southwest China and that he was accused of providing classified documents to a foreign country that he was seeking to immigrate to.  The sentencing comes as China expanded its anti-espionage law, broadening the definition of spying, and updating its state secrets legislation.  South China Morning Post 

France Investigating Russian Connection to Star of David Graffiti.  France is investigating potential Russian connections to the over 200 Jewish Stars of David graffitied onto buildings in France.  The stars have increased concerns amid heightened tensions over the Israel-Hamas conflict as France has some of the largest Muslim and Jewish populations in Europe.  French prosecutors said on Tuesday that they arrested two people born in Moldova who were seen painting a Star of David on a building in Paris last month.  The prosecutors said they found a conversation, apparently in Russian, on their phones instructing them to put up the stars in exchange for payment.  Prosecutors said other people seen putting up stars were in contact with the same person abroad.  Meanwhile, officials say that a network of bots believed to be controlled by Russia’s Wagner Group promoted images of the stars, particularly on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.  Wall Street Journal

U.S. Imposes Sanctions on Sinaloa Cartel Members.  The U.S. on Tuesday imposed sanctions on 13 members of Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel and four firms based in Sonora, Mexico accused of trafficking fentanyl and other drugs.  Authorities said the sanctions targeted a manager of the Sinaloa cartel’s trafficking operations in Nogales, as well as his family and associates.  The sanctions add to a series of U.S. measures this year against the Sinaloa cartel and wider fentanyl-related trafficking.  Associated Press U.S. Department of the Treasury The Cipher Brief

Kabul Bus Bombing Kills 7.  A bus exploded in Afghanistan’s capital of Kabul on Tuesday, killing at least seven civilians and wounding 20 others.  Afghan police said the blast took place in a mostly Shiite Muslim neighborhood in western Kabul.  It is the second place to have hit the area in recent weeks.  No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but an affiliate of Islamic State has previously targeted Shiite civilians in the area.  Associated Press

Mali Drone Strikes Kill 14.  Drone strikes around the town of Kidal in northern Mali killed at least 14 people on Tuesday.  Kidal Mayor Arbakane Ag Abzayack said the attack killed the town’s deputy mayor and a local councilor.  Residents said the attack hit a former U.N. peacekeeping camp that was vacated in recent days.  Mali’s army did not comment on the attack, but it recently said it targeted terrorist positions at a former U.N. base in Kidal.  Associated Press 

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Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes and Brad Christian contributed to this report.

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