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5:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 21, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world.

The data cut-off for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.

THE TOP STORIES:

Zelensky Visits Washington.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Washington on Thursday for meetings with top U.S. officials.  His visit comes as the Biden administration seeks Congressional approval of an additional $24 billion in Ukraine military aid.

Zelensky first met House leadership and all 100 Senators on Capitol Hill to appeal for continued U.S. support for Ukraine.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer recounted that in a meeting with at least 50 senators, Zelensky warned that “If we don’t get the aid, we will lose the war” and that defeating Russia’s invasion is “about American security as well, because a victorious Putin would be an emboldened Putin.”  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell added that “support for Ukraine is not charity” but a direct “investment” in U.S. interests, noting that “degrading Russia’s military power helps to deter our primary strategic adversary, China.”  House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had earlier declined a request from Zelensky to address Congress on his visit, saying “we just didn’t have time.”

Zelensky’s visit came as a group of lawmakers said in a letter that they are concerned about further funding for Ukraine, arguing that the Biden administration supports an “open-ended commitment” to Ukraine, has an unclear strategy on backing Kyiv, and lacks an “exit plan” for the war.

Zelensky moved on to the Pentagon after Capitol Hill to meet U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, and other officials.  Zelensky said they discussed U.S. deliveries of artillery systems, air defense systems and long-range capabilities.  He also invited the U.S. to participate in Ukraine’s upcoming Defense Industries Forum.

Zelensky then met with President Joe Biden at the White House.  In remarks from the Oval Office, Biden called Ukraine a “partner” and said Washington is “supporting a just and lasting peace, one that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”  Biden also said the U.S., G7 and other partners are “formalizing our commitment to Ukraine’s long-term security.”  Zelensky thanked the U.S. for its support and added that talks with Biden would have “a special emphasis on air defense.”

U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan said earlier that Biden will announce new military aid at the meeting, including “significant air defense capabilities” to help Ukraine prepare for a “tough winter, filled with renewed Russian attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure.”  Sullivan added that the new aid will not include Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS).  Officials said the new aid will amount to $325 million and include more cluster munitions.  BBC CNN New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal 

Get updates on the rest of Zelensky’s visit in tomorrow’s morning report.

Chinese Training for Invasion With Drills Around Taiwan.  China deployed some of the largest numbers of jets and warships in the air and waters around Taiwan in recent weeks.  Unlike previous drills of similar caliber, the military activity has been paired with uncharacteristic silence from Beijing.  Taiwanese authorities and defense analysts say that the lack of propaganda around the drills is a key sign that these recent exercises are less about delivering an intimidating political message and more about training.  Observers say China’s military is attempting to improve its ability to encircle Taiwan and neutralize the island’s natural advantages.  Taipei’s strategy in the event of invasion has traditionally been to maintain a stronghold on the east coast of the island long enough for the U.S. to provide assistance.  The recent drills suggest China’s military had made it a priority to block this U.S. response, utilizing a strategy called “anti-access/area denial” (A2AD).  Experts noted that China still faces constraints that make it challenging for it to be able to threaten the U.S. ability to respond.  A major issue is that Chinese fighter jets do not have enough range for extended operations on Taiwan’s east coast.  However, they noted that China’s new aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which Taiwan says will enter service in 2025, could address this and significantly strengthen China’s capacity to block U.S. support.  Wall Street Journal

Hezbollah is Operating in Latin America. What Does That Mean for the U.S.?  Recent U.S. sanctions on Hezbollah operatives and financiers in Colombia, Belize and Venezuela have underscored the presence of the militant group in Latin America.  Experts told The Cipher Brief that Hezbollah has decades-old networks in Latin America, to raise revenue through illicit activities like drug trafficking and money laundering, as well as to provide logistical support to terror plots.  Experts added that regimes in the region welcome Hezbollah’s networks, which help facilitate their own illicit activities.  Experts also warned that Hezbollah’s presence in Latin America will help Iran expand its influence in the region.  To address this threat, experts suggested various solutions, including trying to convince regimes in the region that Hezbollah’s illicit activities run counter to their domestic interests, boosting law enforcement cooperation in the region, and rethinking sanctions in the region.  The Cipher Brief

UPDATES FROM THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY:

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is meeting with the G4 group of nations — including Germany, Brazil, Japan and India — to discuss reforming the U.N. Security Council.  All four members of the group support each other’s bids for permanent seats on the Council.  Baerbock said at a Council meeting on Wednesday that Berlin could “imagine being a permanent member” as part of “major modernization” of the body.

Reforming the Security Council has been a major topic at the UN General Assembly.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Council is ineffective if Russia remains with its veto power.  He suggested expanding the Council’s permanent members could help, including granting a permanent seat for Germany, which he called “one of the key guarantors of peace and security.”

Poland has opposed a German seat on the Council, with Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak saying Zelensky’s suggestion was a “great disappointment” and alleging Germany was slow to back Ukraine at the start of Russia’s invasion.  Deutsche Welle The Guardian

European Council President Charles Michel echoed calls for reform of the U.N. Security Council, saying that the Ukraine war has shown the body is “sclerotic and hobbled” in its current form.  He targeted Russia as the main issue, saying Moscow can “abuse its veto rights to prevent sanctions against itself and even use the Security Council to disseminate propaganda, disinformation and lies” as a permanent member on the Council.  Michel added that lack of proper global representation at the Council reflects outdated orders and is hampering the body’s effectiveness.  Associated Press 

Get updates from the rest of today’s afternoon session in tomorrow’s morning report, including highlights from Chinese Vice President Han Zheng’s address.

Review earlier highlights from the UN General Assembly in our previous Open Source Reports.

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

On the Battlefield

Ukraine Sends First Armored Vehicles Through Breach in Russian Defenses.  Ukrainian forces have reportedly breached Russia’s main defensive lines on the southeastern front with armored vehicles.  An officer in Ukraine’s air-assault forces in the area said the armored vehicles have overcome anti tank obstacles, including ditches and concrete blocks dubbed dragon’s teeth, near the village of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region.  Analysis of open-source Russian videos of artillery strikes on Ukrainian vehicles in the area appears to confirm the development.  The officer noted that the breach is small and heavily contested with Russian forces launching significant artillery strikes and counter attacks on the area.  He inferred Ukrainian troops are taking heavy casualties, saying, ”We are pushing through.. But the price…”  The progress marks a critical advance in Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive.  If Ukrainian troops manage to get a foothold, they could deploy more armored vehicles to less fortified areas and move up forward artillery.   Wall Street Journal 

State of Play

Pentagon Says Poland’s Stopping Weapon Transfers to Ukraine a ‘Sovereign Decision.’  The Department of Defense on Thursday called Poland’s decision to stop providing weapons to Ukraine over the grain dispute a “sovereign decision.”  Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder added that it is up to countries “to decide what level of support that they're going to provide” to Ukraine.  Ryder did not say if Poland’s decision would require other nations to provide more support but highlighted that Poland has already contributed a significant amount of both security and humanitarian assistance to Kyiv since the start of the war.  CNN

Slovakia Says Ukraine Grain Agreement Reached.  Slovakian officials said on Wednesday that they reached an agreement with Ukraine to lift Slovakia’s ban on Ukrainian grain imports.  Slovakia’s agriculture ministry said the agreement will have Ukraine issue licenses to its grain exporters to regulate the flow of grain.  Ukraine did not immediately comment on the development, but its agricultural ministry has said it “discussed cooperation in the agricultural sector” with Slovakia.  Poland and Hungary have yet to announce similar agreements.  Along with Slovakia, they extended a ban on Ukrainian grain imports after the European Commission lifted restrictions, which they say they did to protect local farmers.  Ukraine filed a trade dispute to the World Trade Organization over the matter, and the European Commission said Thursday it is considering legal action against countries who maintain the ban.  New York Times Reuters Financial Times Euronews

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

Cisco Acquires Cybersecurity Firm Splunk for $28 Billion.  Cisco Systems on Thursday agreed to buy cybersecurity firm Splunk for around $28 billion, marking the biggest technology acquisition of the year.  The deal aims to help Cisco strengthen its software business and capitalize on the artificial intelligence boom, while reducing its traditional reliance on its networking hardware business, which has suffered due to supply chain issues and post-pandemic slowdown in demand.  Splunk is known for strength in data observability, helping companies monitor for cybersecurity risks and other threats to their systems.  Some analysts say the merger may be subject to antitrust scrutiny and regulatory hurdles, but Cisco said it was not concerned and expects the deal to be closed by the third quarter of 2024.  Reuters Cisco Wall Street Journal

Intel Sees Massive Demand for AI Chips Made for China.  Taiwanese newspaper DigiTimes reports that Intel Corp is seeing massive demand for its Gaudi2 processors, artificial intelligence (AI) chips specifically made for Chinese buyers.  The report cites Intel sources as saying that demand for the Gaudi chips has risen since their launch in July, prompting Intel to order more from its supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC).  Intel and TSMC did not comment on the report.  Chinese technology firms are increasingly demanding advanced chips to train their own large language models (LLMs).  The U.S. has imposed export controls curbing China’s access to advanced chips on national security grounds.  Intel’s Gaudi chips, along with Nvidia’s remodeled A800 and H800 chips, provide alternatives to Chinese tech firms that are not subject to U.S. export controls.  South China Morning Post

China Criticizes Germany’s Proposed Curbs on Huawei, ZTE.  The Chinese Embassy in Berlin said Thursday that China “will not stand idly” by if Germany restricts the use of components developed by Chinese firms such as Huawei and ZTE for its 5G network.  Germany’s interior ministry has proposed measures forcing telecom entities to curb their use of equipment developed by the two companies after a review highlighted Germany’s reliance on the two suppliers.  The embassy said any restrictions would be a “violation of the principle of fair competition,” adding that Huawei and ZTE have long operated in Germany in accordance with German law.  Reuters

ICC Still Reeling from Cyber Incident.  The International Criminal Court (ICC) said Thursday that the organization was operating with disruptions to email, streaming, and document-sharing after a hacking incident earlier this week. The ICC announced the hack on Tuesday but has given no more information concerning the incident.  The court did say it is continuing its core functions, including a trial of two men accused of leading Central African Republic militias.  The Dutch intelligence agency AIVD said in 2022 that Russia was interested in the ICC due to the court’s investigation of Russian war crimes in Georgia and Ukraine.  In June of 2022, AIVD said it found a Russian military agent posed as a Brazilian to try and infiltrate the court.  Reuters

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

Mexico’s Lopez Obrador Skipping U.S.-Hosted Summit, Suggests Biden Meeting.  Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Thursday that he has decided to not attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in San Francisco in November where he was expected to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden. However, Lopez Obrador suggested that the two leaders meet in Washington D.C. the same month.  Lopez Obrador said that he offered the alternative to meet with Biden because he no longer planned to attend the APEC summit due to his differences with the government of Peru.  Relations between Mexico and Peru have deteriorated since December, when Peru ordered Mexico’s ambassador to leave the country following Lopez Obrador’s comments condemning the ouster of former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo.  If unable to meet in November, Lopez Obrador said that Biden and he could meet in January during a Canada-hosted North American leaders’ summit.  U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan said Mexico “raised the possibility” of Lopez Obrador not attending the APEC summit and that the two sides have to discuss further on next steps.  Reuters

Yemen Houthis Hold Military Parade Amid Saudi Talks.  Yemen’s Houthi movement displayed thousands of soldiers, armed drones, and ballistic missiles in a massive military parade in Sanaa on Thursday.   Mahdi al-Mashat, the head of Yemen’s Houthi Supreme Political Council and other officials attended the parade, which was seen as a message of force to the Saudi-led coalition amid ceasefire negotiations.  Houthi Defense Minister Mohammed al-Atifi said at the parade that the Houthis “repeat our warnings to foreign forces... that we will not accept their presence on our lands.”  The parade came two days after Houthi negotiators returned from five day talks with Saudi officials in Riyadh on a potential agreement to end the eight-year conflict in Yemen.  Reuters

Israeli Tanks Hit Syrian Army Structures in Golan Area.  Israel’s military said on Thursday that its tanks struck two “temporary structures” used by the Syrian army in the Golan Heights.  The military said the strike was conducted after Israeli soldiers identified the structures in the area, which were in violation of a 1974 disengagement accord.  This comes after at least two people were killed while riding a motorcycle near the Syrian town of Beit Jinn according to two Palestinian sources and one Lebanese source.  The sources said those killed were militants and said Israel conducted a strike to target them.  Syria did not comment on either incident ,and Israel’s military did not comment on the reported motorcycle strike.  Reuters Al Jazeera

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