5:30 PM ET, Thursday, November 2, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's top headlines:
THE TOP STORIES
Senate Confirms New Top Officers in Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps. The Senate confirmed President Joe Biden’s nominations for top officers in the Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps on Thursday. The Senate voted 95-1 to approve both Adm. Lisa Franchetti as chief of naval operations and Gen. David Allvin as Air Force chief of staff. Franchetti is the first female member of the Joint Chiefs. Senators then voted 86-0 to promote Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Christopher Mahoney to general and confirm him as the Marines’ assistant commandant. With the confirmations the Joint Chiefs finally have a full slate of Senate-confirmed officers for the first time since July. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is also preparing a vote on Biden’s nominee for Assistant Commandant of the Marine Corps, Lt. Gen. Christopher Mahoney. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) has blocked hundreds of military promotions over the Pentagon’s reproductive healthcare policies. Associated Press Defense News Politico The Hill
China’s Top Agency Vows to Help Protect Financial System. China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) on Thursday posted on its official WeChat account that it will “proactively” help protect China’s financial stability and that the country must be “soberly aware” of financial risks and challenges. MSS also accused “some countries” of attempting to “cause disruptions” in the Chinese financial system. The post came days after President Xi Jinping said at a financial work conference that countering financial risks is an “eternal theme” for the government, highlighting concerns about recent fragility in China’s financial system, seen in the country’s property crisis, increasing local government debt, and capital flight. Experts say MSS’s role in this issue is likely to be its involvement in financial corruption cases with suspected foreign collaboration. South China Morning Post
China Says it Tracked U.S., Canadian Warships’ Transit of Taiwan Strait. China’s military said it deployed planes and ships to monitor and shadow U.S. and Canadian warships that sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday. The USS Rafael Peralta, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, and the Canadian navy’s Halifax-class frigate HMCS Ottawa made the passage. A spokesperson for the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command said the transit was “publicly hyped” that Chinese forces remain on alert to protect China’s sovereignty and regional stability. The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet said the ships made a routine transit of the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, sailing beyond the territorial sea of any coastal state. Taiwan’s defense ministry confirmed the transit and also monitored the ships, saying the “situation was normal.” The U.S. and Canadian navies have occasionally conducted such joint transits over the past two years, most recently in September. The transit came as the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong participated in joint sea-air drills off southeastern Taiwan. It also came as Taiwan reported Chinese warplanes and ships around the island. South China Morning Post
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel Encircles Gaza City. Israel’s military said it has encircled Gaza City in its ongoing assault on the Gaza Strip. Israeli military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told reporters that Israeli troops “completed the encirclement of Gaza City,” describing it as “the focal point” of Hamas. The Israel Defense Forces said it has killed 130 militants in the northern Gaza Strip in the last few hours and has lost 18 troops in its offensive. Hamas says Israel has lost more soldiers in Gaza than it has announced. Hamas and allied Islamic Jihad fighters are fighting Israeli forces with hit-and-run attacks from their tunnel network in Gaza. Israel’s military said it is encountering mines and booby traps set up by Hamas. BBC Financial Times New York Times Times of Israel Reuters
U.S. to Push Israel for Humanitarian ‘Pauses’ in in Gaza. Officials say U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will push Israel to periodically pause attacks in Gaza to allow for the release of hostages and distribution of humanitarian aid. Blinken will also reportedly discuss minimizing civilian casualties in Gaza with Israel. Blinken will hold discussions on these issues when he visits Israel on Friday, which he will then follow with a stop in Jordan. White House officials maintain that the humanitarian pauses will be different from a full ceasefire, which the Biden administration said would allow Hamas to recover from Israeli attacks. President Joe Biden said on Wednesday he thinks the pauses are needed. Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Herzog said that “we don’t need urging” to send more aid into Gaza, asserting that Israel is delivering more aid to areas in the territory “which we are taking away from Hamas.” New York Times Reuters
U.N. Experts Call for Gaza Ceasefire. A group of seven U.N. special rapporteurs called on Thursday for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza to distribute aid in the territory, warning that Palestinians there are “at grave risk of genocide.” The experts cited “indiscriminate” attacks on Gaza and the blockade of the territory. The Israeli mission to the U.N. in Geneva criticized the comments as “deplorable and deeply concerning,” blaming civilian deaths on Hamas. Reuters UN OHCHR
Israel Calls for Foreign Hospitals Ships to Treat Wounded Palestinians. Israel’s ambassador to Germany, Ron Prosor, said Israel is asking foreign countries to send hospital ships to treat wounded Palestinians who leave Gaza through the Rafah border crossing into Egypt. Prosor said he made the request to Germany and that it is “being discussed.” France said last week that it will send a naval vessel Tonnerre to the eastern Mediterranean to provide temporary support for Gaza hospitals. The Tonnerre remains off the coast of Cyprus as it is still unclear where it could dock or how it could be used. French officials said their main priority is to provide aid through air lifts via Egypt. Israel is also reportedly talking to medical agencies about establishing field hospitals in southern Gaza. Meanwhile, limited evacuations continue at the Rafah crossing. Palestinian officials say 400 foreign citizens and dozens of critically injured Palestinians could leave through the crossing into Egypt on Thursday. Reuters
Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Israel Exchange Fire. Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it launched 19 simultaneous cross-border strikes on Israeli army positions on Thursday. Hezbollah said it used guided missiles and artillery in the attacks, as well as drones packed with explosives for the first time. Israel forces responded with air strikes and shelling attacks. The militant group said the drone attacks hit an Israeli army command position in the disputed Shebaa Farms area. Lebanon’s National News Agency said two people in the southern Huta village were killed by Israeli shelling, and local officials in Khiyam town said the attacks injured one civilian. Reuters
Hamas Leaders Outside of Gaza Run Vast Financial Network. The Washington Post is out with a report on the vast financial network overseen by the top Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, who is based in Qatar, far from the violence in Gaza. Experts say Haniyeh is one of several of Hamas’s top leaders possibly living “in luxury” abroad and have said that Qatar must help in turning him over. The U.S. and its allies have announced additional sanctions against Haniyeh and other top Hamas officials following the Hamas attacks, but there is still much to do to cripple their financial networks. Hamas is funded by heavy taxation of Palestinians in Gaza, a vast investment portfolio with assets across the region worth an estimated $500 million to $1 billion, and an estimated $450 million per year from black market smuggling fees. Iran also sends an estimated $120 million to Palestinian groups like Hamas. The militant group also has other international funding sources, including Qatar. While it is unclear how involved Haniyeh and other Hamas political leaders were in the October 7 attacks, their financial channels paid for the group’s soldiers and weaponry. Washington Post The Cipher Brief
Germany Bans Pro-Palestinian Samidoun Group, Hamas-Linked Activities. Germany’s Interior Ministry banned the pro-Palestinian group Samidoun and outlawed all activities linked to Hamas, which Berlin already designates as a terrorist organization. The move establishes a legal framework to restrict activities of both groups, allowing authorities to confiscate the groups’ assets and outlaw their internet presence or social media activities. German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said Samidoun’s German wing is part of an international network that spreads anti-Israel and antisemitic propaganda under the guise of supporting Palestinian prisoners. Germany’s BfV domestic intelligence agency estimates that around 450 people in Germany actively support Hamas. Deutsche Welle Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia Claims it Downed Ukrainian Drones Near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant. Russia’s defense ministry on Thursday said Russian air defenses downed nine Ukrainian drones near the Russian-occupied city of Enerhodar, which is close to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The ministry accused Ukraine of conducting the attack in a bid to disrupt the rotation of IAEA staff at the facility. Russia’s foreign ministry said the attack shows Ukraine continues to “play with fire” and is risking a nuclear disaster. Kyiv did not immediately comment. The Zaporzhzhia nuclear plant doesn’t produce electricity but needs maintenance to keep its reactors from overheating. Russia and Ukraine have both accused each other of attacking the nuclear plant. Reuters
Germany Sends New Military Aid to Ukraine. Germany said it provided new military aid to Ukraine on Wednesday, including 12 armored personnel carriers, two air surveillance radars, and seven Primoco ONE reconnaissance drones. The package further included five unmanned surface vessels, two AMPS self-defense systems, 32 terminals for satellite communication, four heavy duty trucks with semi-trailers, and 12 MAN TGS trucks. In October, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a $1.1 billion “winter” aid package for Ukraine, pledging to provide air defenses and other equipment to help prepare for the winter months. According to a government website, Berlin said that it had so far delivered 30,000 sets of winter clothing, 10,000 safety glasses and a 3D printer as Ukraine braces for the upcoming cold weather. Kyiv Independent
U.S. Imposes New Sanctions Targeting Russian War Effort. The U.S. State Department announced Thursday that Washington is sanctioning over 200 foreign and Russian individuals and entities for their role in supporting Russias’ military and economy throughout the invasion of Ukraine. In a separate statement, the Treasury Department said that it had added 130 new targets to its sanctions list due to their role in helping Moscow obtain military technology and equipment. Many of these targets are third-country entities and individuals that Russia has depended on for supplying its military amid Western sanctions. Included on the list are companies based in Turkey, China, United Arab Emirates. Irish, Latvian, and Cypriot nationals are also included in the sanctions. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the expanded list demonstrates “our further resolve in continuing to disrupt every link of the Russian military supply chain, and target outside actors who would seek to support Russia’s war effort.” Kyiv Independent
U.S. Reportedly Planning $425 Million Ukraine Military Aid Package. Two U.S. officials said on Thursday that the Biden administration plans to announce a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine on Friday, which includes counter drone rockets and munitions. According to a document obtained by Reuters, the planned package will include $300 million worth of laser guided munitions to shoot down Russian drones. The funds for the aid come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program, which allows for the weapons to come from industry rather than U.S. stockpiles. The other $125 million is expected to include additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) air defenses, High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 105 and 155 millimeter artillery, TOW anti tank weapons, Claymore mines, small arms, and a dozen trucks according to the anonymous officials. The package is not expected to include ATACMS missiles despite calls for the Biden administration to send longer-range missiles to Ukraine. Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has provided about $44 billion worth of security assistance to Kyiv. Reuters
German Foreign Minister Backs Advancing Ukraine’s E.U. Membership Bid. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock on Thursday said she believes the E.U. will advance Ukraine’s bid to join the bloc at a summit next month. Baerbock said the E.U. needs to be enlarged as a “geo-political consequence” of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, asserting that Moscow cannot be allowed “to plough an imperial trench” that separates the E.U. from Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and the Western Balkans. She also noted that the bloc needs to undergo “tedious” internal reforms to be able to properly function with over 30 members. E.U. leaders are meeting December 14-15 to discuss whether to formally start Ukraine’s membership talks. If Ukraine joins the bloc, it will be its fifth most populous member, as well as its poorest. Under current rules, it would receive much of the E.U.’s agriculture and development aid, possibly at the expense of current members. The executive European Commission will issue a report on November 8 assessing Ukraine and other countries’ progress towards E.U. membership. Deutsche Welle Politico
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
AI Summit Announces ‘Landmark Agreement’ on Pre-Release Testing of New Models. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced Thursday that an additional “landmark agreement” had been reached with like-minded governments and AI companies to test new AI models before they are released. Participants in the second day of the AI Safety Summit from the U.S., EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Canada and Australia agreed to the safety testing arrangement. China’s representatives were not included in the AI Safety Summit’s second day of discussions. According to the summit chair’s summary of discussions, it is crucial that “the potential risks of new models are rigorously assessed before and after they are deployed, including by evaluating for potentially harmful capabilities." Sunak noted that Amazon Web Services, Anthropic, Google, Google DeepMind, Inflection AI, Meta, Microsoft, Mistral AI and Open AI have agreed to “deepen” access already granted to the UK’s Frontier AI Taskforce, which is the forerunner of a new AI safety institute to be established in Britain. The prime minister also described the creation of an international advisory panel on frontier AI risks involving the 28 countries participating in the summit. It will be modeled on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with Britain providing secretariat support. Reuters Politico UK Government
U.S. Blacklists 12 Russian Drone Technology Suppliers for Moscow Military. The Commerce Department on Thursday added 12 Russian companies involved in supporting Russia’s military with drone technology to its trade blacklist. Matthew Axelrod, assistant secretary for export enforcement. commented that the department will continue to employ all of its authorities to curtail Russia's procurement of drone-related technologies. The Lancet drone reportedly was a target of the Commerce Department action in connection with its role in threatening Ukraine’s frontline forces. Washington sanctioned ZALA Aero, which designs, manufactures and sells loitering munition and suicide drones to the Russian Ministry of Defense, as well as A Level Aerosystems CST, a Russia-based manufacturer that produces ZALA brand drones. Reuters The Gazette
Boeing Parts, Distribution Operations Impacted by LockBit Ransomware Attack. The Boeing aerospace company on Wednesday acknowledged impacts from a cyberattack on its parts and distribution operations. The company said the incident is under investigation in coordination with law enforcement and regulatory officials. The LockBit ransomware gang announced on October 27 that it had added Boeing to its leak site and gave the company a six-day deadline to respond to its ransom demands. The malware platform, vx-underground, noted that Boeing was removed from the LockBit leak site on Monday and claimed that in contacts with the ransomware gang it was told negotiations with Boeing are under way. William Wright, CEO of Closed Door Security, said the LockBit attack is another example of “a hacking gang announcing a cyberattack well before a company is aware of it." Wright added that it is unknown if other ransomware actors are exploiting the Boeing vulnerability, explaining that Boeing forensics examination of the breach is crucial as “defenders need to understand which vulnerability was exploited, so they can take steps to protect their systems.” The Record Cybernews Bloomberg
U.S. Firm Uses AI Tool To Digest Vast Social Media Content on Hamas-Israel Conflict. In the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, an American AI and data analysis firm began filtering and analyzing the flood of multi-format content on the conflict that surged across social media. The Primer company employed its “Command” AI software to parse the outpouring of data and produce a continuously refreshed timeline, with some key events geolocated to create a heat map of posts and interactions. As Primer CEO Sean Moriarty told C4ISRNet at a recent trade show, just aggregating data in a noisy and confused environment “can be really problematic because you’re just making a big pile for the user to go through.” The Command software was demonstrated at the Association of the U.S. Army’s (AUSA) annual convention in Washington in October. The system pulls vast amounts of data from social media feeds and news reports and generates summaries, context and name-entity recognition tailored for military applications. A Moriarty explained, the system “is interrogating these disparate sources, identifying anomalies where information is in conflict, and scoring it. Anywhere there is a hot spot, our folks are looking to see what signal we can pull.” Mark Brunner, the president of Primer’s federal team, said Command seeks to reduce “the latency between sensor and shooter“ and enable users to “sense, make sense, decide and act — we’re the ‘make sense’ people in that loop.” C4ISRNet
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
U.N. Raises Alarm Over Increased Rate of Executions in Iran. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warns that Iran is carrying out executions “at an alarming rate,” executing at least 419 people in the first seven months of 2023. The figure marks a 30% increase in executions from the same period in 2022. Executions in Iran have been increasing, especially after the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died while in Iranian morality police custody. Her death sparked anti-government protests that led to a harsh crackdown. In his report, Guterres highlighted the executions of seven men who participated in those demonstrations, saying that information suggests all seven cases did not meet requirements for due process and a fair trial. Meanwhile, Guterres said 239 people — over half of those executed in the first seven months of this year — were reportedly put to death for drug-related offenses. Associated Press RFE/RL The Hill
Uganda Captures ISIL-Linked Militia Leader. Ugandan authorities said that it captured the leader of an ISIS-linked militia unit that allegedly killed two foreign tourists and their local guide in a national park last month. The Ugandan government announced on Thursday that the militia leader, “Njovu” was detained on Tuesday during a raid where six militia members were killed. The militiamen belonged to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an ISIS-linked group based in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Deo Akiiki, a Ugandan military spokesman, noted that “the whole squad that had been sent by the ADF to cause mayhem, kill tourists, burn schools, hospitals” was eliminated. “The only survivor is the commander whom we captured,” he added. This comes as Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has long called for the Ugandan security services to “wipe out” the ADF. Al Jazeera
The data cutoff for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.
Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.
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