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6:00 PM ET, Monday, September 18, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES:

Blinken Meets China’s Vice President Han at UN.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with China’s Vice President Han Zheng on Monday at the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.  Blinken said at the start of the meeting that the world expects both China and the U.S. to “manage our relationship” and that Washington believes “face to face diplomacy” is the best way to engage.  Han likewise called for consensus since “the world needs stable and healthy China-U.S. relations.”  The meeting came after several visits by top U.S. officials to China in recent months and days after White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malta.  Neither Blinken nor Han mentioned a potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November, where U.S. officials have hoped Xi and President Joe Biden could meet for talks.  Reuters Bloomberg Associated Press

Expert Perspective: For Iran, the Prisoner Swap Deal Was About the Money.  Cipher Brief Expert General (Ret.) Jack Keane weighed in on the prisoner swap between the U.S. and Iran on Monday, saying that what Tehran really wanted from the deal was not the release of Iranian detainees but the release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds under the deal.  While the Biden administration assures that Qatar will oversee the Iranian funds to ensure they are only spent on humanitarian relief, Keane argued such prisoner exchanges should not include release of funds.  He said the money will end up in the hands of Russia’s “malign regime leaders” which they will use to “dominate and control the Middle East” and send weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine.  He recommended that the Biden administration report to Congressional oversight committees on what the money is spent on to address doubts over the arrangement.  He added that he believes the U.S. should double down on Iran sanctions and better align with Israel and Arab partners to counter Tehran.  Keane also said that the U.S. should use its “microphone” at the U.N. to “isolate” Iran for its malign behavior.  Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi later told reporters in New York, where he is attending the U.N. General Assembly, that the swap was “purely a humanitarian action” and that it could set the stage for future exchanges.  Fox News The Cipher Brief

Canada Says Indian Government May Be Linked to Killing of Canadian Citizen.  Canada said on Monday it has credible information linking Indian government agents to the murder of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia in June.  Canada has expelled the head of Indian intelligence in Canada in response.  Canadian Broadcasting Corp reports that Nijjar supported an independent Sikh homeland in India and that New Delhi branded him as a “terrorist.”  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen would be seen as “an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty.  He added that he raised the killing of Nijjar with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at last week’s G20 summit and urged the Indian government to cooperate in investigations into Niijar’s death.  India’s Embassy in Ottawa did not comment on the matter.  Associated Press New York Times Reuters CBC

U.S. Searching for Missing F-35 Fighter Jet.  The U.S. military said it is still searching for an F-35 jet that crashed Sunday near an air base in South Carolina and has asked the public to assist in the search.  The pilot safely ejected from the aircraft following a “mishap,” according to a statement from Joint Base Charlston.  Based on the aircraft’s last known location, search efforts have been focused north of the base around Lake Moultrie and Lake Marion.  The plane may have crashed in water, which would make it even harder to locate.  Lockheed Martin, which manufactured the jet, said it is nearly impossible to track the plane on radar.  It seems that the jet’s stealth capabilities are working a little too well.  Reuters NBC News New York Times Washington Post

China Deploys Over 100 Military Places Near Taiwan.  Taiwan’s defense ministry said Monday morning that China flew 103 military aircraft towards Taiwan in a 24-hour period, which it said was a “recent high.”  The ministry added that 40 of the planes crossed the unofficial median line in the Taiwan Strait, including fighter jets and refueling tanker planes.  Other planes flew through the Bashi Channel, which separates Taiwan from the Philippines.  In addition, sources said China deployed over 100 naval ships for exercises in the area in recent days.  Taiwan’s defense ministry called on China to cease such “destructive unilateral actions,” which it said are worsening regional security.  China’s defense ministry did not comment.  Notably, the military activity came despite no engagement between top U.S. and Taiwanese officials, which is what has often prompted such shows of force from China in the past.  Experts said the missions may be an effort by China to pressure Taiwan even where there is no direct “political motivation” for such actions.  Reuters Associated Press South China Morning Post The Guardian

STORIES THAT MAY NOT BE ON YOUR RADAR:

German Intelligence Head Cites Cyber Threat to Liquefied Natural Gas Terminals.  The chief of the German Intelligence Agency (BND), Bruno Kahl, warned a cybersecurity meeting on Friday that cyberattacks against Germany’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals could be carried out by state-sponsored hackers.  Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany has initiated three new LNG terminals and plans to add more.  Kahl told the Baden-Wurttemberg Cybersecurity Forum that the new LNG facilities “should be considered possible targets” for cyberattacks in the future.  Kahl added that Russia and China remain the biggest cyberthreats to German systems, noting that both countries are “intensively active in cyberspace in order to harm politics, administration, business, research and also society in Germany.”  Kahl noted that small states, in addition to Russia and China, pose cyberspace threats.  “In the digital world,” he said, “it is not primarily the size and the mass, but above all the innovative strength and creativity when it comes to achieving the greatest possible impact.”  North Korea, Vietnam and Iran have been identified as hosts for hacking organizations sponsored and supported by intelligence services.  The Record

Ukraine War Adds Level of Realism to NATO’s 2023 Northern Baltic Sea Drills.  Russia’s war in Ukraine has added an element of realism to the annual NATO naval drills in the Baltic Sea as Western militaries practice for the first time on how to respond to a Russian attack in the region. The two-week Northern Coasts exercise is taking place in the seas off the coasts of Latvia and Estonia, which are both NATO members that border Russia.  The drills started September 9th and involve around 30 ships and 3,000 personnel from all NATO countries in the Baltic region plus Sweden, Canada, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France.  Participating members are practicing amphibious operations, strikes from sea to land, and securing routes through the Baltic Sea.  German Rear Admiral and Exercise Director Stephan Haisch said this year’s drill had moved towards reality and away from artificial scenarios due to heightened tensions with Russia.  Captain Maris Polencs, Latvia’s naval commander, added that the Ukraine war has shown that NATO needs to develop sea mining and de-mining capabilities in the Black Sea to prepare for possible conflict in the region.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

On the Battlefield

Ukrainian Commander Says Situation in East ‘Remains Difficult’ Despite Recent Gains.  The Ukrainian Commander of Land Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi released a video on Monday praising soldiers who recaptured the villages of Slishchiivka and Andriivka near Bakhmut. Syrskyi noted that the Ukrainian progress in the area has broken a Russian defensive line.  Despite his optimism, he cautioned that the “overall situation in the eastern sector remains difficult,” noting that Russian forces continue to attempt “numerous counterattacks from different directions” to recapture lost territory in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions.  CNN

Ukraine Fires Six Deputy Defense Ministers.  Six Ukraine’s seven deputy defense ministers, according to Ukrainian officials.  Ukraine’s state security for the defense ministry was also dismissed.  The Ukrainian government did not specify why the officials were fired.  The shakeup came about two weeks after former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov resigned following corruption scandals involving Ukraine’s defense ministry.  Reznikov was not implicated in the scandals but appears to have been damaged by association.  Ukraine’s new defense minister Rustem Umerov said after the dismissals were announced that the ministry is “rebooting” and “continues to work as usual.”  Associated Press Defense News CNN

Bulgaria Destroys Explosives on Drone at Black Sea Resort.  Bulgaria’s army on Monday destroyed explosives attached to a drone that landed in the Black Sea resort of Tyulenovo.  The Bulgarian defense ministry said it detonated the explosives since it determined the drone could not be transported with the explosives still attached.  Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev said it is assumed the drone is related to the Ukraine war but added that it was not possible to conclusively say where the drone came from or whose it was.  Tagarev noted there have been previous “cases of fallen remains of drones and other ammunitions” in Bulgaria from the Ukraine war.  Reuters CNN

In Russia

Putin Claims Russian Economy Has Weathered ‘Unprecedented’ Western Pressure.  Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Russia’s economy has withstood “unprecedented external pressure” from the West and remains “stable and balanced.”  Speaking at a budget meeting, Putin claimed that Russia’s GDP has reached levels seen in 2021 and that the country is set to achieve “further stable and long-term development.”  He added that Russia’s oil and gas budget revenues in July-August are growing and have almost recovered to last year’s levels.  Putin’s comments counter the fact that Russia’s ruble sank to 17-month lows last month.  Russia’s central bank announced a spike in interest rates as an emergency response.  Western countries also maintain heavy sanctions on Moscow, including measures against Russian oligarchs and a price cap on Russian oil.  The U.S. has also said it believes sanctions are disrupting Russia’s military production, as seen in Moscow’s reported outreach to North Korea for a potential arms deal.  CNN 

The Diplomatic Arena

Georgia’s Security Service Accused a Senior Ukrainian Official of Plotting Coup. The State Security Service of Georgia (SSG) has accused former deputy interior minister Giorgi Lortkipanidze of plotting to overthrow the Georgian government from Ukraine.  The SSG said that Lortkipanidze, who it alleged is working as the deputy chief of Ukraine’s military counterintelligence, has been planning to stoke mass unrest in Georgia to violently oust its government.  The SSG claimed he would enlist Georgian fighters in Ukraine and Georgian youth to accomplish the plan.  The SSG also named other co-conspirators linked to Georgia’s jailed ex-president Mikhail Saakashvili.  Ukraine’s foreign ministry denied involvement in the alleged coup plot, saying Lortkipanidze never worked for the Ukrainian government and that Georgian authorities are “demonizing” Ukraine for domestic reasons.  Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has been accused of collaborating with the Kremlin in the past.  Ukraine has repeatedly requested that Georgia release Saakashvili, who has been a Ukrainian national since 2015 and a top adviser to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.  Kyiv has said that Georgian authorities are “killing” Saakashvili on the Kremlin’s orders and have urged for his transfer to a clinic abroad.  Al Jazeera

Ukraine to Sue Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary over Grain Bans.  Ukraine is reportedly planning “in the near future” to sue Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia in the World Trade Organization (WTO) over their decision to maintain a ban on the import of Ukrainian grain, despite the European Commission’s decision to end the ban.  Ukrainian farmers have had to export their grain through neighboring countries after Russia’s invasion disrupted their ability to ship grain through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.  The flood of cheap grains and oilseeds into neighboring countries has threatened local farmers who struggle to sell their own products at sufficient prices. To address this, the European Union (EU) imposed a ban on Ukrainian grain imports into neighboring countries in May that allowed Ukraine to export its grains through those countries on the condition that the product was sold elsewhere.  The EU allowed the ban to expire after Kyiv said it would take measures to control exports to neighboring countries.  Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia defend their decision by saying that they are acting in the interest of their economies and their farmers.  Radoslaw Fogiel, the head of Poland’s parliamentary foreign affairs commission, was quoted as saying that Ukraine’s decision to sue the countries would “reverberate badly in Poland.”  Al Jazeera Reuters CNN

Another Cargo Ship Leaves Odesa through Temporary Corridor.  The Ukrainian government said a fifth ship has left the port of Odesa via a temporary corridor along the western Black Sea coast.  The government said the ship, the Cayman Islands-flagged bulk carrier PUMA, was loaded with “16,000 tonnes of metal and 14,000 tonnes of rapeseed”.  The ship was one of several trapped in Odesa after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Kyiv opened the temporary corridor to facilitate Black Sea shipments after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal.  CNN

Russia Summons French Ambassador Over ‘Russophobic’ Actions. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the French ambassador Pierre Levy on Monday to protest “discriminatory and openly Russophobic” actions.  Russia’s complaints stem from its accusation that reporters from RIA Novosti and the editor-in-chief of Russia-News were “rudely denied” access to the press conference of French President Emmanuel Macron at last week’s G20 summit and that French authorities even tried to confiscate their phones.  The ministry called on France to stop “pressuring and discriminating against unwanted media outlets.”  A French diplomatic source said the Russian account of the press conference was incorrect, saying that no phones were taken and that the journalists were turned away from the press conference since the room it was being held in was full.  Reuters Barrons

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

China-Linked Threat Actor Deploys New Malware Against Global Government Systems.  Government agencies in multiple countries have been targeted by a China-affiliated cyberespionage threat actor tracked as “Earth Lusca,” according to a Trend Micro cybersecurity report.  The hackers are deploying a new Linux backdoor dubbed “SprySOCKS, which originates from the Trochilus open-source Windows malware.  Trend Micro notes that the backdoor appears to be a mixture of multiple malware as its command and control server communication protocol is similar to RedLeaves, a Windows backdoor, while the interactive shell appears derived from Derusbi, a Linux malware.  Key government departments dealing with foreign affairs, technology, and telecommunications were targeted by Earth Lusca throughout the first half of the year in attacks in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Balkans, and elsewhere.  Exploitation attempts focused on several n-day code execution flaws at Internet-exposed endpoints designed to drop Cobalt Strike beacons, allowing remote access to compromised networks.  Once access is gained, the threat actor moves laterally through the network to steal credentials, exfiltrate files, and deploy additional malware.  Among other capabilities, the SprySOCKS backdoor collects system information, initiates an interactive shell, and performs operations such as uploading, downloading, and deleting and creating directories.  BleepingComputer

China, EU Hold Talks on AI, Cross-Border Data Flows.  China’s Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing and European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency Vera Jourova led talks about artificial intelligence (AI), data regulation and cross-border data flows in Beijing on Monday.  The talks were part of an EU-China High-Level Digital Dialogue, the first such dialogue in three years.  The European Commission said it used the talks to express concerns about challenges EU companies in China are facing using their industrial data after “recent legislation,” which likely referred to the expansion of China’s counter-espionage law that banned the transfer of any information linked to national security.  Chinese state media said Zhang used the talks to welcome all companies to China to develop the country’s digital economy for win-win results.  Reuters

Space Force Achieves Fast Turnaround Launch of ‘Victus Nox’ Satellite.  The U.S. Space Systems Command (SSC) has announced a successful “Victus Nox” mission designed to complete a satellite watch in a 24-hour window.  In what SSC described as a “major advancement” for tactical space capabilities, the mission team mated a Millennium Space Systems vehicle to an Alpha launch vehicle and completed final launch preparations within the target timeframe.  The small launch rocket successfully lifted off Friday morning from the Space Launch Complex at Vandenberg Space Force Base.  Previous DoD space launches took anywhere from two to five years, with the last tactical response space experiment, a June 2021 launch, closing that window to 21 days. Victus Nox’s completion of a one-day launch cycle is viewed as a significant accomplishment for the Space Force.  An official with Space Safari official, the SSC component that managed the launch, said “the advancement of TacRS capabilities represents a paradigm shift for the National Security Space enterprise.”  The Space Force aims to deploy an enduring responsive space capability as soon as 2026 capable of rapid satellite launches to respond to an in-orbit threat or replace a degraded or destroyed system.  Victus Nox has reached its target altitude in low Earth orbit with scheduled operations beginning in under 48 hours.  BreakingDefense Ars Technica C4ISRNet

UK Markets Regulator Unveils Principles for AI Commercial Development.  The UK anti-trust authority, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), has laid out seven principles for regulating AI foundational models like ChatGPT.  CMA’s principles aim at requiring accountability and promoting transparency in companies leading generative AI development.  These include provisions to prevent AI firms from building walls around their models and preventing anti-competitive practices.  CMA CEO Sarah Cardell said the way in which AI is being developed carries the risk of undermining public confidence or being dominated by a minority of tech firms whose market influence “prevents the full benefits being felt across the economy.”  This reality, she noted, led the CMA to create AI principles and initiate a program “to help ensure the development and use of foundation models evolves in a way that promotes competition and protects consumers.”  The proposed principles were unveiled six weeks before Britain hosts a global AI safety summit.  CMA said it will seek input on the principles from leading AI developers such as Google, Meta, OpenAI, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Anthropic as it prepares to assume new authorities in the coming months to oversee digital markets.  The proposed principles also cover access to key inputs, open and closed business models, and allowances for businesses to use multiple models.  Reuters Bloomberg

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

Mexico’s Lopez Obrador Defends Inclusion of Russian Military Unit in Parade.  Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador defended the presence of a Russian military unit during a weekend parade celebrating Mexico’s Independence Day, saying that “we invite everyone” to participate.  His comment came in response to sharp criticism levied at Mexico for giving a platform to the forces that have invaded Ukraine.  Ukraine’s ambassador to Mexico blasted the decision, saying the parade was “sullied” by the presence of the Russian military unit which she said was “stained with blood.”  Lopez Obrador has sought to keep Mexico neutral on the Ukraine war and has proposed peace talks.  Still, his government has backed multiple U.N. resolutions criticizing Russia over the war.  Units from other nations such as Brazil, Chile, China, Venezuela, Sri Lanka, Cuba, and Nicaragua were all present at the parade as well.  Reuters

Military Drone Crashes During Test Flight in Northern Iran, Wounding Two.  Iranian state media reports that a military drone crashed during a test flight in northern Iran on Monday, wounding two people and damaging multiple buildings.  Debris from the drone reportedly fell in different parts of the city of Gorgon, according to the IRNA news agency.  An Iranian Defense Ministry spokesman told state TV that the test flight had averted course due to a “technical failure.”  The spokesman did not say what drone was involved, though footage of debris circulating on social media suggests it was a drone that can carry bombs.  Associated Press

Attack on Iraq’s Arbid Airport Kills Six.  An apparent drone strike on the Arbid military airport in Iraq’s Kurdistan region killed six people on Monday, according to a local official and a security source.  Two members of the Kurdish security forces were reportedly injured in the attack.  Arbid is mostly used for helicopter landings and is 30 miles east of the city of Sulaimaniya in northeastern Iraq. One security source said a Turkish drone may have been used in the attack against a suspected Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) target.  Turkey views PKK as a terrorist group and often conducts airstrikes on PKK militants in northern Iraq.  Reuters

African Union Entering Second Phase of Troop Withdrawal from Somalia. The African Union announced on Monday that it has begun the second phase of its troop withdrawal from Somalia. The pullout will lead to the handover of security to the country’s authorities, which are currently fighting al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda affiliate in East Africa.  The U.N. approved of an African Union Transition Mission in Somalia last year, known as ATIMS, to support Somali forces until they assume control of security operations at the end of 2024.  The mission is now aiming to pull out 3,000 troops by the end of the month.  On Sunday, the Burundian contingent gave the Biyo Adde forward operating base to the Somali National Army.  Associated Press

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