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6:00 PM ET, Monday, July 10, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

U.S. Senators Getting Classified White House AI Briefing.  The White House will reportedly hold a classified briefing for senators on artificial intelligence (AI) on Tuesday.  It will be the first such classified Senate briefing on AI and it will come as the U.S. considers legislation to regulate the new technology.  Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and other senators organized the briefing, which will take place in a sensitive compartmented information facility (SCIF) in the U.S. Capitol.  Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines; Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks; White House Office of Science and Technology Policy director Arati Prabhakar and National Geospatial Intelligence Agency Director Trey Whitworth will lead the briefing.  Reuters

Cuba Blames U.S. for 2021 Protests.  The Cuban government on Monday accused the US of responsibility for protests that rocked the island back in July 2021 which saw thousands of Cubans participating in the demonstrations to protest the country’s worsening economic crisis. The Cuban government responded by arresting hundreds of protesters, charging them with offenses ranging from public disorder to sedition. The Communist party-run Granma paper claimed that Cubans were openly incited and influenced by a “campaign of disinformation and slander” to start the protests, adding that the U.S. also allegedly provided funding to support the unrest.  Neither the U.S. State Department or White House have responded to the allegations, though Washington has maintained that the riots were spontaneous and denies any involvement.  Reuters

Paraguay President-Elect to Visit Taiwan.  Paraguay's president-elect Santiago Pena will visit Taiwan this week.  Pena said he will meet his “great friend” Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen during his visit, along with other top officials.  Paraguay is the last South American country with formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan.  Pena promised during his election campaign to maintain relations with Taiwan, despite pressure from the Paraguayan agricultural sector to switch ties to Beijing to facilitate the export of soybeans and beef to Chinese markets.  Nikkei Asia

Western Europe

Turkey Agrees to Advance Sweden’s NATO Membership Bid.  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced on Monday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to support Sweden’s bid to join NATO.  Stoltenberg said Erdogan will direct the Turkish parliament to begin ratifying Sweden’s accession protocol “as soon as possible.”  A Turkish official also confirmed the development, saying Turkey received assurances on key demands, namely on counter-terrorism coordination against individuals on Swedish territory that Ankara says are part of terrorist groups.  The official said there was also progress on Turkey’s requests for defense-related sanctions relief and for the EU to accelerate Ankara’s application to join the economic bloc.   Al Jazeera BBC Bloomberg Washington Post

NATO Reportedly Agrees on Plan to Defend Against Russian Attack.  Reuters reports that NATO has reached an agreement on defense plans to respond to a Russian attack against the alliance. NATO has not considered large-scale defense plans for decades but has been recently forced to do so following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  According to diplomats familiar with the plan, it includes precise orders for where alliance forces would deploy to respond to Russian attacks in the Arctic and north Atlantic, central Europe, and the Mediterranean region.  The plan also outlines regional guidance to NATO members on how to upgrade their forces and logistics.  Officials say it will take a few years to fully implement the plans but say that the alliance is still immediately battle-ready.  NATO agreed to the plan after a “compromise” from Turkey, which had withheld approval of regional plans due to wording of geographical locations such as Cyprus.  BBC Reuters

NATO Finalizing Security Guarantees for Ukraine.  Ukraine’s NATO allies are working to finalize a joint framework aimed at providing long-term security assurances to Ukraine.  The agreement will provide long-term guarantees and commitments to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia and will make it easier for Kyiv to reach military and economic aid agreements with individual countries.  Britain, France, Germany and the U.S. have been negotiating with Kyiv on the framework for weeks, and the EU and G7, including Japan, have been included in conversations.  Diplomats say the framework may not be announced until after the NATO summit this week.  Ukraine will not be granted membership in NATO while its war with Russia continues, but it is seeking commitments at the summit that it will be admitted into the alliance after the war.  Reuters

Britain’s Sunak, Biden Pledge Support for Ukraine.  President Joe Biden met with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London Monday morning.  A Downing Street spokesperson said that Biden and Sunak reaffirmed their commitment to continue support for Ukraine and more widely talked about Ukraine’s counteroffensive, aid needs and long-term security.  The spokesperson added that the two discussed the U.S. decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine.  Sunak said over the weekend that the UK “discourages” the use of cluster bombs, noting that the UK is one of around 120 countries who have banned the use of the weapons. Biden previously said on Sunday that Ukraine is not ready to join NATO, and Sunak said he wants to discuss a path to membership for Ukraine but has yet to propose an “exact mechanism.”  Biden separately met with King Charles III after his visit with Sunak.   NBC News Wall Street Journal Washington Post

EU, Ukraine Yet to Implement Plans to Increase Ammunition Production.  An investigation by European media outlets has found that both Ukraine and Europe have yet to implement plans to increase ammunition production in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.  While Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is still anywhere from 3-10 times less than that of Russian forces, Ukraine is still using more ammunition than European production can keep up with.  The EU continues to lag behind demand as member states have not signed many long-term contracts with arms producers, who are hesitant to increase production without state guarantees as they are concerned any expansion will have to be reversed if the war ends soon.  National protectionism in the EU and the bloc’s bureaucracy have stymied decision-making to back increases in ammunition production.  Ukrainian arms makers face the same issue with state support, but they are still scaling up production given immediate needs of the Ukrainian military.  Despite this, logistics issues sometimes keep ammunition from reaching the battlefield, and Russian attacks on defense infrastructure also limits productivity.  A separate issue is that even when European ammunition makes it to Ukraine, a lack in EU standards forces Ukrainian forces to alter or adapt weapons to use the munitions they receive.  To address these issues, Ukrainian arms makers are seeking joint ventures with Western counterparts, and some in the Ukrainian government have proposed Western allies include equipment for ammunition production in their military aid packages to bolster Ukraine’s arms industry.  Kyiv Independent

Central and Eastern Europe

Wagner Units Reportedly Got Close to Russian Nuclear Weapons During Uprising.  Reuters reports that a convoy of Wagner Group fighters diverted from the group’s drive north to Moscow in their uprising on June 24 and headed east towards a Russian army base, Voronezh-45, which has nuclear weapons.  Reuters said that, according to local accounts, the Wagner fighters made it to the town of Talovaya, 100 kilometers from the base, where they were attacked by Russian forces.  It is unclear what happened after, but Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said in an exclusive interview that the Wagner fighters eventually made it to the base.  He claimed that the Wagner units planned to seize small Soviet-era nuclear weapons to “significantly raise the stakes” of their uprising but says they ultimately failed to get access to the highly secure nuclear weapons.   A source close to the Kremlin corroborated Budanov’s claims, saying the Wagner units “managed to get into a zone of special interest” and a source in Russian-occupied east Ukraine added that the Wagner move on the base also helped push the hastily-negotiated arrangement which ended the Wagner rebellion.  Washington has been skeptical about this supposed development in the Wagner mutiny, with U.S. intelligence officials saying they are unable to confirm reports at the base and that the U.S. has no evidence that nuclear weapons were ever at risk.  Experts also say that it was unlikely the Wagner Group could breach Russian nuclear security and doubt whether anyone in the group had the expertise to handle a nuclear weapon.  Reuters

Around 50,000 Russian Troops Killed in Ukraine War.  Independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, alongside a data scientist from Germany’s Tubingen University estimate that Russia’s military has suffered nearly 50,000 casualties since the invasion of Ukraine began last year.  Using excess mortality, inheritance records, and official mortality data, the group was able to estimate how many men below the age of 50 had died between February 2022 through May 2023, totaling to the 50,000 figure.  The finding is roughly in line with a UK Ministry of Defense estimate in February that 40,000 to 60,000 Russians have been killed in the war, as well as a leaked U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment that said 35,000 to 43,000 Russians were likely killed in the first year of war.  The Russian government has only acknowledged the deaths of about 6,000 soldiers and has repressed Russian media, activists, and independent journalists who claim otherwise.  Al Jazeera Associated Press

Australia Deploying Surveillance Aircraft to Support Ukraine.  Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Monday that Canberra will deploy a Royal Australian Air Force aircraft to Germany to support Ukraine.  The E-7A Wedgetail aircraft will be deployed for six months, with 100 Australian crew and support personnel, to help protect multinational logistics hubs “essential to the flow of military and humanitarian assistance” into Ukraine.  Albanese said the aircraft will not enter Ukrainian, Russian or Belarusian airspace.  His comments came during a visit to Berlin, where he attended the signing of an in-principle agreement for Australia to send 100 Boxer armed carriers to Germany.  Deutsche Welle Reuters The Guardian

Canada to More than Double Size of Military Presence in Latvia.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Monday that Canada will “more than double” its military presence in Latvia, sending an additional 1,200 Canadian military personnel to the Baltic nation.  Speaking at the Adazi military base in Latvia, Trudeau said the reinforcement will bring Canada’s presence in Latvia to brigade level and will be part of a $2.6 billion investment which includes “the purchase of critical weapon systems and support for intelligence and cyber activities.”  The troop deployment will take up to three years to complete.  Trudeau added that the effort is part of Canadian efforts to counter Russian aggression.  Al Jazeera CBC

Poland Seeking NATO Pipeline Extensions Eastward.  Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Monday that Warsaw wants NATO to consider extending its Central Europe Pipeline System (CEPS) further east.  The CEPS is a Cold War era high-pressure pipeline network that transports jet fuel, diesel fuel, gasoline and naphtha between Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands.  Duda said Poland will raise the issue of a potential extension of the EPS at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, adding that he hopes the alliances will “finance their expansion, so that they reach NATO’s eastern flank.”   Reuters

Russian Mobilization Official Killed.  Russia’s TASS news agency reports that the deputy head of a municipal department in charge of military mobilization in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar was killed by a gunman.  TASS said authorities are investigating the killing.  Al Jazeera

Uzbekistan President Re-elected.  Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was re-elected on Sunday, winning a snap election on Sunday with 87.1% of the vote.  Uzbekistan called for a snap election after changing the constitution through a referendum that would extend the presidential term from five to seven years. This referendum will also reset his term count. Mirziyoyev had previously served as prime minister and has promoted himself as a reformer while promising to create a “New Uzbekistan.”  Though activists say human rights have dramatically improved under Mirziyoyev’s administration, critics have still accused his government of working to weaken Uzbekistan’s democracy.  Al Jazeera  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

China, Thailand Conduct Joint Air Drills.  China and Thailand began an annual joint air combat exercise on Sunday.  The Chinese defense ministry said the drills, which are taking place in Thailand and are known as “Falcon Strike 2023,” will include Chinese fighter jets, bombers, airborne early warning aircraft and ground-to-air missile installations.  The ministry added that the drills will focus on joint air defense, air support and large-scale deployments and that the exercises aim to “strengthen military cooperation” between Beijing and Bangkok and “maintain regional peace and stability.”  The annual drills were first held in 2015.  This year’s iteration of the exercises comes as China seeks to bolster security ties with its Southeast Asian neighbors as the U.S. also works to expand military cooperation with partners in the region.  South China Morning Post

China Pledges Economic, Technical Aid to Solomon Islands.  Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare in Beijing on Monday.  The two announced a new comprehensive strategic partnership between their countries, and Xi pledged Chinese economic and technical assistance for the Pacific Island nation.  The trip marks Sogavare’s second visit to China, during which he will meet with Chinese business leaders and open his country’s embassy in Beijing.  It is his first visit since China and the Solomon Islands signed a bilateral security deal last year, which expanded the role of Chinese police in supporting Solomon Islands security forces.  The U.S. and its South Pacific allies, Australia and New Zealand, have looked at China’s expanding security influence on the Solomon Islands and other Pacific Island nations with concern.  Nikkei Asia South China Morning Post

Taiwan Says China Conducting ‘More Subtle’ Efforts to Influence 2024 Election.  China is engaging in a “more subtle approach” to influence Taiwanese voters ahead of the island’s 2024 elections, according to a source in Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, the island’s top intelligence agency.  The source said current influence operations, which are chiefly delivered on social media platforms, contrast with past hostile rhetoric at the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as those efforts failed to sway voters towards more mainland-friendly parties like the Kuomintang.  Current efforts focus on the risk of “imminent war” under continued DPP leadership, aiming to generate fear and blaming the DPP’s “hostile” policies towards Beijing for heightened cross-Strait tensions.  The influence campaign also aims to cast doubt on Taiwan's partners and allies, such as the U.S., promoting the idea that they are “not trustworthy” and are “unlikely” to support Taiwan in the event of a conflict with China.  As part of this, the campaign has portrayed visits by U.S. and other Western officials to Taipei as for personal or business gains.  In addition to the information warfare, the source added that China is also using soft concessions, like lifting import bans ahead of the election, that mainland-friendly parties can take credit for.  South China Morning Post

India to Slowly Reduce Reliance on Russian-Made Weapons.  India has begun to take steps in developing its own domestic weapons industry, through joint manufacturing agreements and technology transfer deals, as part of efforts to lessen its dependence on Russian military equipment.  Western countries have pushed New Delhi to distance itself from Russia’s arms industry since the start of the Ukraine war.  Indian defense officials say this pressure, seen in sanctions related to the war on Russian defense companies, along with tensions with China have moved India to seek a diversified weapons supply chain and stronger domestic defense industry.  In one of the latest deals exemplifying this, during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S. last month, India announced the purchase of GE fighter jet engines worth about $1 billion, as well as an order of MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones worth $3 billion.  Reuters  The Times of India

Middle East and Northern Africa

Iran Says U.S, Interfering with Maritime Fuel Smuggling Investigations.  An Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commander accused the U.S. Navy of defending fuel smuggling in the Gulf.  The commander said U.S. forces took “unprofessional and risky actions” to disrupt an Iranian effort to inspect a ship in the Gulf last week, which he said was eventually taken to Bushehr port for “legal procedures.”  The commander’s comments appear to refer to an Iranian seizure of a commercial vessel, which the U.S. Navy said it monitored but did not take action against.  That incident came after a separate incident where the U.S. Navy said it prevented Iran from seizing two tankers in the region.  The Cipher Brief Reuters

Sub Saharan Africa

Nigerian President Tinubu to Head West Africa Bloc.  The West African regional bloc ECOWAS has selected Nigerian President Bola Tinubu as its new chairman.  Tinubu pledged to prioritize political stability, peace and security and economic integration in the bloc.  He added that the bloc must take swift action against insecurity in West Africa, ranging from terrorism to coups, which he said have reached an “alarming proportion.”  West Africa has seen six successful military coups since 2020.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

European Commission Approves Long-Awaited Data Transfer Agreement with U.S.  A new data transfer pact between the U.S. and the EU – the Trans-Atlantic Data Privacy Framework — was announced by the European Commission Monday in a move that seeks to remove uncertainties for companies engaged in trans-Atlantic exchanges of personal data. Some privacy groups and activists dissatisfied with the privacy standards of the framework have said they will challenge the agreement in court.  The Commission said that new data provisions adopted by the U.S. have satisfied European concerns that adequate levels of privacy protections are in place.  Earlier agreements had been annulled by European courts for failure to meet privacy thresholds.  Among the safeguards agreed to by the U.S. was a limit on U.S. intelligence agencies’ access to EU data and the creation of a data protection review process for Europeans.  In implementing the review process, the U.S. has created a Data Protection Review Court with authority to resolve claims by European individuals and impose remedies for violations of U.S. laws.  The framework will take effect immediately.  Its approval was welcomed by tech firms like Meta, which has incurred fines for violations of European data privacy laws.  The Computer & Communications Industry Association, which represents Amazon and Google among others, said the agreement would provide companies with “full legal certainty” in personal data transfers across the Atlantic.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Taiwan’s Foxconn Withdraws from India Semiconductor Plant Joint Venture.  Taiwan's technology manufacturer Foxconn has announced its withdrawal from a semiconductor joint venture with the Indian conglomerate Vedanta.  The planned operation, worth an estimated $19.5 billion, is seen as a setback for India’s ambition to establish a semiconductor manufacturing sector in the country.  Plans had called for the joint venture to establish semiconductor and display production plants in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  The entity established by the venture will now be wholly owned by Vedanta, which said that it remains committed to the project and has “lined up other partners to set up India’s first foundry.”  Foxconn’s withdrawal reportedly was prompted by concerns over Indian government delays in approving incentives for the company’s involvement.  India’s Deputy IT minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar said that the Foxconn's decision will have "no impact" on India's plans, adding that the government will not "get into why or how two private companies choose to partner or choose not to.”  Reuters CNBC

Australian ‘War Game’ Imagines Massive Cybersecurity Incident at Sydney Airport.  The Age, a Melbourne newspaper, was given access to a war game conducted last week by Australian government agencies and representatives of the airline industry.  The war game depicted a massive cyber disruption at Sydney Airport.  For more than three hours, the two dozen participants were asked to suspend disbelief and imagine that airport operations had been brought to an abrupt halt. The exercise ran through scenarios that probed how logistics, communications, and government-airline coordination would be impacted as flights were diverted and canceled and hundreds of people were suddenly stranded.  Home Affairs and Cyber Security Minister Clare O’Neil, who participated in the war game, said “once you start to think about how the event cascades, it takes you into places that you wouldn’t have expected.”  Officials from Australia’s Department of Home Affairs and the Australian Cyber Security Centre were among the government participants while the airline sector was represented by Qantas Airways and Virgin Australia.  Air Vice-Marshal Darren Goldie, who has just assumed the role as Australia’s first cybersecurity coordinator, attended as an observer.  Cyber Security Minister O’Neil said the exercises were like “hitting the gym,” with the aim of strengthening the resources needed to respond to a major cyber breach.  The Age

TheVerge Profiles Telegram’s Key Role in Ukraine Conflict Coverage and Influence.  The instant messaging app, Telegram, has developed into one of the world’s most popular and influential social media platforms, especially for its content concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict.  Known for its “hands-off” moderation practices, Telegram shields users from monitoring but also serves as an outlet for disinformation and manipulation.  According to TheVerge, Telegram has become one of the few sources of information in Russia able to evade government censorship.  At the same time, in Ukraine, it has served as an “alert service” to avoid Russian attacks and to keep track of Russian troop movements.  For users in the rest of the world, TheVerge reports, “Telegram has become the window into a war that has destabilized the world.”  Russian pro-war military bloggers congregating on Telegram are a particular focus of interest, including Rybar, a military channel with 1.2 million subscribers worldwide.  Rybar’s founder, Mikhail Zvinchuk, noted that Telegram became an alternative platform when Meta began restricting pro-Russian narratives on Moscow’s role in Syria.  Pro-war channels have long since moved from the margins to become primary sources of content that feeds back into mainstream news outlets, with the most recent example being major Russian media citing Telegram on the unfolding of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s uprising.  Zvinchuk, who once served with the Russian Defense Ministry’s press office, said that the “Prigozhin rebellion shows that all the information was spread exclusively through Telegram.  Telegram has become the main instrument of information delivery and is trusted more than all the traditional media because they have censorship.”  Telegram’s staff is only about 30 people, but its reach is orders of magnitude greater, with about 700 million monthly active users witnessing the war in Ukraine “through the eyes of those fighting it.”  The channel publishes battle updates and posts maps, videos and images collected from social media users or generated by propagandists.  As TheVerge notes, “Telegram is the opposite of mainstream platforms such as Facebook: it gives free rein to content makers.  …This has made the platform a haven for those escaping censorship from autocrats but also for extremists, conspiracy theorists, and criminals.”  The Verge

China’s WeChat Skipping Australia Foreign Interference Hearing.  Chinese social media app WeChat is not sending a representative to Australia’s Senate Select Committee on Foreign Interference through Social Media hearing on Tuesday.  WeChat has allegedly declined multiple invitations to appear at the hearing.  WeChat has been criticized recently for its alleged influence over Chinese Australians, with critics targeting the app’s function as a news platform and place for opinion pieces. The hearing, which is intended to cast a spotlight on the potential of “foreign interference” through social media, will be attended by executives from TikTok, Twitter, and LinkedIn.  South China Morning Post

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