4:00 PM ET, Monday, December 18, 2023
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
TOP STORIES
Houthis claim more attacks on commercial vessels in Red Sea. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis claimed they launched drone attacks against two commercial ships in the Red Sea. A Houthi spokesperson said the vessels hit in the attack were the MSC Clara and Norwegian-owned Swan Atlantic. Details on the Panama-flagged MSC Clara were not immediately known, but the Swan Atlantic’s owner confirmed the ship was hit by an unidentified object but that none of its crew was hurt. The Houthis say they are attacking ships in the Red Sea to protest Israeli military actions in Gaza against Hamas. Companies have suspended shipments in the region and in response to the attacks. Major shipping companies Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping, and MSC, the world’s largest container shipping line, as well as energy giant British Petroleum said they are temporarily not sending ships through the Red Sea. Evergreen says it is not only suspending navigation through the area until further notice, but it is also temporarily not accepting cargo. Taiwan’s Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation and others have said they are diverting ships that were supposed to sail through the Red Sea around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. The suspension of shipments in the Red Sea and redirecting of ships could significantly impact global trade and disrupt the flow of oil from key producers. BBC New York Times Reuters
EXPLAINER: Solid-fuel missiles and why North Korea is developing them. North Korea conducted its third test firing of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) this year on Monday, boosting its ability to launch with minimal preparation. South Korea was unable to immediately identify the specific missile fired in the test, but North Korea showcased the solid-fuel Hwasong-18 ICBM in February and tested it in April and July. Solid-fuel technology dates back centuries and was most prominently used in the mid-20th century. While liquid propellants provide more thrust for missiles, solid propellants, a mix of fuel and oxidizer, burn faster and offer quick thrust, reaching temperatures over 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit. Solid also remains stable in storage. Additionally, solid-fuel missiles, unlike liquid-fuel ones, do not require immediate fueling before launch, making them safer, more logistically efficient, and more covert. North Korea says its development of the Hwasong-18 and solid-fuel ICBMs in general aims to enhance its nuclear counterattack capability. Reuters
ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR
CIA in talks with Israel’s Mossad to restart Hamas hostage deal, other senior U.S. officials scheduled to travel to Israel. CIA Director William Burns reportedly met with Israeli and Qatari officials to restart discussions over Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Egyptian officials say that Burns met with the head of Mossad, David Barnea, and the Qatari Prime Minister, name, in Warsaw, Poland on Monday. Burns previously met with Barnea in Doha, Qatar last month to discuss the release of Israeli hostages. A senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan has reportedly told Qatari and Egyptian officials that the militant group will not take part in hostage talks unless Israel ends the war in Gaza and aid to the territory is doubled. Hamas has also reportedly told Egyptian officials that they will only agree to a hostage release if they get to unilaterally decide on the list of the hostages to be released and Israel releases several longtime Palestinian prisoners. New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal
U.S. Defense Secretary discusses Gaza war with Israeli leaders. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Israeli leaders, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, to discuss “goals and objectives” in Gaza. Austin noted that the U.S. will not “dictate timelines or terms” for the war in Gaza and called it “Israel’s operation,” but he did call for a “transition from higher intensity operations to lower intensity operations” for a “more surgical” approach aimed at reducing harm to civilians. Talks also discussed the future governance of post-war Gaza. Austin also affirmed that the U.S. will continue military aid to Israel. Gallant said that Israel will “not control Gaza in any civilian way” after the war. He added that Israel remains committed in returning the roughly 130 hostages believed to still be in Gaza and destroying Hamas. Gallant also signaled that Israel is transitioning to a next phase of military operations in Gaza in which Palestinians may be able to return to homes in the northern part of the territory. Gallant described this transition as a phase that will “distinguish different areas in Gaza” and that Israel will “start on working on bringing back the local population.” Gallant also maintained that Israel is working to minimize civilian casualties, highlighting the opening of a crossing to allow aid into Gaza from Israel. BBC Reuters Reuters
U.N. Security Council to vote on new Gaza ceasefire resolution. The U.N. Security Council scheduled a vote Monday on an Arab-sponsored resolution calling for a cessation of hostilities in Gaza and the release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas. The U.S. previously vetoed a similar vote on Dec 9. The U.N. General Assembly voted on Dece. 12 by large majority for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in a strong demonstration of global support to end the conflict. Associated Press
UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine commander warns of artillery shortages, scaled back military operations. Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi told Reuters that Ukraine’s military operations are being impacted by ammunition shortages caused by a shortfall in foreign aid. Tarnavskyi said that the ammunition shortages, specifically with artillery shells, are affecting the “entire front line” and are creating a “big problem” for Ukraine, forcing Ukraine’s military to redistribute equipment and replan and downsize operations in response. His comments come after Hungary blocked new E.U. aid and as assistance remains stalled in the U.S. Congress. Ukraine has been working to secure new aid and bolster its domestic defense industry to lessen reliance on Western supplies. BBC Reuters Kyiv Independent
Ukrainian army chief says frontlines not at stalemate. Ukrainian Army Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said on Monday that the frontlines of the war against Russia are not at a stalemate. Zaluzhnyi previously said last month that the the war as reaching a new stage of static and attritional fighting that he compared to World War One, adding that there is a level of technology that has been reached that has caused a stalemate. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied suggestions that the war had reached a stalemate. Zaluzhnyi, when asked by Ukrainian media, backtracked on Monday and said the conflict is not at a stalemate. He also did not comment on questions about whether or not Ukraine is planning any counteroffensive operations during the winter. Reuters
Ukraine’s top general criticizes Zelensky’s firing of recruitment chiefs. Ukraine’s Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi issued his strongest criticism today of President Vlodymyr Zelensky’s decision to fire all of Ukraine’s regional military draft heads in August. At the time, Zelensky claimed after an investigation that the recruitment chiefs had committed multiple abuses ranging from illegal enrichment to transporting draft-eligible men across the border despite a ban. When asked by reporters about the Defense Ministry’s plan to boost recruitment, Zaluzhnyi said that the old system should return. This comes as Ukraine is currently trying to conscript more men to bolster the front lines. Zaluzhnyi’s comments also come a day after an information gathering device was reportedly found in an office he was scheduled to move into. Ukraine’s domestic security service is currently investigating the matter. Reuters
Ukraine launches new procurement agency. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced a new procurement agency, the State Logistics Operator (DOT), for the Ukrainian military on Monday. The agency will reportedly be responsible for all non-military purchases such as fuel, food, or clothes. The creation of the new agency comes after corruption scandals under the Defense Ministry’s previous leadership concerning similar goods. Umerov noted that corrupt practices in defense purchases have plagued Ukraine for decades and stressed the need for Ukraine to abandon the “Soviet, oligarchic” approach to public funds. Ukrainian military chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi thanked the ministry for the reforms and said that DOT should provide the military with high quality and timely purchases. Kyiv Independent
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Europe
Germany agrees to permanent troop deployment in Lithuania. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas announced the signing of an agreement on Monday for the permanent deployment of German troops to Lithuania. This deployment, which was first announced in June 2023, has been described as “historic,” as it is the first time German troops have been permanently deployed abroad since the end of World War Two. The deployment will include a brigade of around 5,000 soldiers and will begin in 2024. The mission is expected to reach full strength by 2027. The deployment is part of an initiative to strengthen NATO’s presence along its eastern flank with Russia. Lithuania is expected to allocate 0.3% of its GDP to help fund the deployment over the next couple of years. Measures will be taken to make the relocation “attractive” to German soldiers by offering a number of benefits. Kyiv Independent
Middle East
Jordan says it foiled plot by Iran-linked smugglers from Syria. Jordan’s army said it foiled a plot by armed infiltrators from Syria it accused of being linked to pro-Iranian militias. Jordanian state media said the infiltrators sought to smuggle weapons and drugs into the country and were armed with rocket launchers, anti-personnel mines, and explosives. Jordan and its Western allies have accused Lebanon’s Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups in the region of being responsible for the surge in drug and weapons smuggling mainly based in Syria. Iran and Hezbollah deny the allegations as Western plots, and Syria has denied ties with the Iranian-backed militias. (Editor’s Note:The Cipher Brief reports on how the Syrian-made amphetamine Captagon is bolstering Iran and its regional proxies. Read here.) Reuters The Cipher Brief
Asia and Oceania
Taiwan allows seizure of Chinese sand dredgers to counter illegal mining, ‘gray zone warfare.’ Taiwan will permit the confiscation of mainland Chinese sand dredgers to prevent them from illegal gravel mining in Taiwan’s exclusive economic zone, which Taipei says is part of Beijing’s gray zone tactics to pressure the island. Taiwan’s legislature revised the Law on the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf to allow the confiscation of mainland Chinese sand dredgers engaged in illegal mining. The move aims to prevent illegal sand and gravel mining in Taiwan’s exclusive economic zone, which Taipei says is part of Beijing’s gray zone tactics, namely environmental damage and resource exhaustion, to pressure the island. The revised law increases penalties for illegal mining offenses and permits ship seizures regardless of ownership. The law has previously reduced the number of illegal mining operations in Taiwanese waters from 4,000 in 2020 to 224 last year. South China Morning Post
Pakistan’s Khan uses AI-crafted speech in virtual rally. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, whose party is banned from holding public rallies, used an artificial intelligence (AI) generated audio clip to address a virtual rally on Sunday. An audio clip was played over an AI generated image which appeared to be speaking. The virtual event was plagued with internet disruptions, but it was still attended by tens of thousands live on social media platforms and drew more than 1.4 million views on YouTube. The internet disruptions sparked concerns related to transparency in the upcoming election with many complaining of internet speed throttling. Pakistan’s telecommunications regulator said that the interruptions were being investigated and that internet accessibility appeared to be normal. Khan, who was convicted and sentenced to three years on corruption charges in August, is currently embroiled in dozens of other court cases and some being held behind closed doors. Legal experts have criticized such cases and claim that they may infringe Khan’s right to fair proceedings. Reuters Associated Press
Africa
Sudan’s RSF enters Wad Madani. Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) entered the city of Wad Madani on Monday. The city lies southwest of the capital and has provided refuge for thousands of people throughout the eight month civil war. The RSF has steadily been advancing through western and central areas of the country and the group’s approach on Wad Madani has caused thousands of people to flee. Videos posted online showed RSF militants driving along the city streets and over a bridge above the Blue Nile. The war in Sudan has so far displaced nearly 7 million people, left the capital in ruins, caused a major humanitarian crisis, and sparked ethnically driven killings in the Darfur region. According to the International Organization for Migration, nearly 1.5 million people have fled Sudan and more than 5.4 million have been forced from their homes internally, making Sudan the country with the most displaced people in the world. Reuters
CYBER & TECH RUNDOWN
AI fueling misinformation ‘Superspreader’ flood through bogus websites. Newsguard, a misinformation tracking firm, reports that websites carrying AI-created fake news have increased by more than 1,000 percent, from 49 sites to over 600. The themes of the false information range from elections to ongoing conflicts and natural disasters. Researchers on misinformation point to the coming elections in democracies around the world in 2024 as reason for increasing concern. Jack Brewster, a Newsguard analyst, said some websites produce “hundreds, if not thousands” of fake reports daily, adding “this is why we call it the next great misinformation superspreader.” Generative AI has brought into existence chatbots, image makers and voice cloners generating content that seems human-made. Examples of the torrent of misinformation is found in AI-generated news anchors spewing pro-Chinese propaganda, and a growing number of websites, with innocuous names like iBusiness Day or Ireland Top News, delivering fake news in dozens of languages from Arabic to Thai. Washington Post Cybernews
European Commission announces investigation of ‘X’ platform for illegal content. The European Commission, part of the EU’s executive arm, has announced an investigation of Elon Musk’s X social media platform over possible violations of the Digital Services Act (DSA). Partly triggered by X postings following the Hamas assaults on Israel, this will be the Commission’s first probe under the DSA, which was adopted last November. The DSA requires large online platforms and search engines to monitor, police and remove illegal content and material that poses a risk to public security. The Commission said that the investigation will seek to counteract the dissemination of illegal content within the community and will examine steps taken to eliminate manipulation of information. The “Community Notes” section of X, which creates a “crowd-sourcing” mechanism to flag misleading content, also will be included in the Commission probe. In addition, the examination will extend to the data access X provides to researchers. A senior EU official explained that the investigation has not found X guilty of infringing the DSA, "but merely states that we have significant ground to investigate these areas in detail." Reuters
Iran petrol stations disrupted by cyberattack. Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji said on Monday that a cyberattack has caused nationwide disruptions to petrol stations. Owji earlier said around 70% of Iran’s petrol stations were impacted by potential outside interference. He later said 1,650 stations of the roughly 3,800 stations his ministry oversees were operational. Iranian media said the attack was especially serious in Tehran and forced many petrol stations to operate manually. Officials maintained there is no fuel supply shortage and that the attack was limited to a software problem that disrupted petrol station operations. Iranian state TV and Israeli local media reported that the hacking group “Predatory Sparrow,” which Iran accuses of being linked to Israel, claimed responsibility for the cyberattack. The group said on Telegram that the attack was in response to “aggression” from Iran and its regional proxies. An Israeli government spokesperson declined to comment on Iran’s claims about the group’s links to Israel. Reuters
Cyberattack of mortgage giant Mr. Cooper leaked data of 14.7 million people. A cyberattack in October at Mr. Cooper, one of the largest mortgage loan servicers in the U.S., exposed the data of nearly 14.7 million customers. Mr. Cooper filed breach notification documents with regulators in Maine and California on Friday that reported the findings from the company’s internal investigation into the incident. According to the report, there was an attack from October 30-November 1, and resulted in the leak of personal information of nearly 14.7 million current and previous customers. The company did not specify if it was a ransomware attack or respond to any other additional requests for comments, but did add that they had contacted law enforcement and hired cybersecurity professionals after noticing “suspicious activity” in the company’s network systems. The Record
Lawmakers seeking rejection of export licenses for Chinese drone maker DNI. Fifteen Republican lawmakers asked the Pentagon to block export licenses of U.S. components to Chinese drone manufacturer DJI, citing national security risks. The letter was signed by lawmakers including Representative Elist Stefanik, China select committee chair Mike Gallagher, and Senators Marco Rubio, Marsha Blackburn, Todd Young, and Joni Ernst. In 2020, the Commerce Department added DJI to the government’s export control list, accusing the company of complicity in the oppression of the Chinese Uighur minority and aiding the Chinese military. In a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the lawmakers said that a recent teardown of a DJI drone found U.S. components, which suggests the approval of export licenses. The Pentagon declined to comment and DJI said in July that they have never designed or manufactured products for military use. Over 50% of the drones sold in the U.S. are manufactured by DJI and they are among the most popular drones in use by public safety agencies according to Republican lawmakers earlier this year. Reuters
The data cutoff for this product was 2:30p.m. E.T.
Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes, Leighton Durham, and Ainsley Brown contributed to this report.
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